2024 Australian Open Women's Round Two
Swiatek vs Collins
Tricky match here. Swiatek had a close first set with Kenin, and I’m seeing some things in Swiatek’s game that are not ideal. It’s pretty clear she’s not confident in her serve, and somehow she’s lined up to play all the American returners early in this event. Swiatek is taking a long time to serve, and it reminds me a little of Cilic and Djokovic when they got into their ball-bounce eras. When Swiatek hits her forehand clean, it’s clear that she’s going to win the match, but I guess I’m expecting her to iron out these errors and rough patches eventually. Kenin played well, but Swiatek lacks that Barty-esque ability to just keep the ball in play until her opponent forces something.
Against Collins, it could be a long day. I think this match is tougher than the one against Kenin, because Collins hits her backhand bigger than Kenin and has a better forehand. Her serve is not the best though, and I would expect Swiatek to eventually wear her down. Swiatek can’t hold onto her serve, but she’s adept at breaking and the cumulative pressure seems to always let her run away with the match. Swiatek in 2-3.
Kessler vs Noskova
Fiona Ferro and Kessler played a really high level of tennis in the first round. Ferro’s forehand is scary and Kessler is a great defender. This second round is a similar situation. Noskova beat Bouzkova fairly easily, and despite Bouzkova being a higher ranked player I think Kessler matches up better with Noskova. Bouzkova has very little power, and these courts let Noskova’s flat forehand slide through easily. Bouzkova kept trying to infuse height to buy time, and it just let Linda tee off time and time again. Bouzkova’s serve is also pretty weak. Kessler doesn’t really dominate things on serve, but she trades power well and she hits a heavier forehand than Bouzkova. Given Noskova’s play, she should have this on her racquet, but I could see the second set being close. Noskova in 2.
Svitolina vs Tomova
It’s a shame Tomova is playing Svitolina here, because she’s playing really well. Her forehand is so heavy that I would like her chances against half of this draw, but Svitolina is a wall and Tomova won’t get through her just by heavy hitting. Svitolina in 2.
Siniakova vs Golubic
Big upset on paper for Golubic beating Kudermetova, but Veronika has just been dumping matches left and right for the last year. I don’t see the reason why, but she’s lost her ability to remain consistent. Golubic and Siniakova should have some long rallies, and Golubic is a bit more skillful, but Siniakova hits harder overall and I think that matters a lot in these conditions. Siniakova in 3.
Ostapenko vs Tomljanovic
Apparently there’s some bad blood here after a grumpy match in Wimbledon. Ostapenko would be the pick here, but she lost a 5-2 lead against Birrell in round one. It just highlights that the pace Ostapenko plays at leads to wild swings of momentum, and Ajla is mostly looking to hit hard and remain consistent so she’ll win the set that Birrell didn’t. Despite Osty’s troubles, Ajla was down 4-1 in the deciding set against Martic and her serve didn’t look good enough to really keep Jelena from attacking. I’m expecting Ostapenko’s nerves to get to her a little, but for her to overall be sharper than a Tomljanovic who is just making her way back on tour. Ostapenko in 2-3.
Tauson vs Azarenka
Giorgi is on a losing streak, but it is some wildly entertaining tennis. She’ll be facing set point and will just smoke a backhand crosscourt for a short angle winner. Hitting through Azarenka is really tough and has been for a decade now, and she almost did it. Tauson is a much more solid player, but her stamina issues might be a problem here. I think she hits hard enough to beat Azarenka for a set, but the same as Giorgi I don’t see it happening for three sets. Azarenka’s serving will be a key here, as Tauson will swing big on anything slow. I expect this to be close, as impatience and physical issues are the only things keeping Tauson from being in the top 50 on tour. Azarenka in 3.
Navarro vs Cocciaretto
Lulu Sun’s hopes dwindled quickly as Cocciaretto’s power was a bit too much for her. Right now Sun’s offense is good enough for the tour but she’s not reliable in long rallies or scrambling at the baseline. Still a good result to qualify for her first major. Navarro and Wang played some really brilliant offense, and I think Navarro can keep it going against Cocciaretto. Navarro used to be the player I felt was overrated, but her forehand has become a serious weapon. Does she have a backhand? Hmm, yes and no. It’s there, but it’s a target. Cocciaretto can find it, and can win the same set as Wang, but Navarro seems very good in deciding sets. Navarro in 3.
Yastremska vs Gracheva
Varvara played well in round one, and for a server Wickmayer had a really tough time holding serve. Gracheva now will play one of the surprise entries into round two. Dayana Yastremska has issues with unforced errors. She played one of the best defenders on tour in Vondrousova, and somehow she smoked her. Yastremska’s forehand was scary good, and she isolated Market’s backhand to great effect. Gracheva is in good form, but Yastremska’s play in the first round is good enough to win here. The good Yastremska is a joy to watch, and if she can win and play Navarro that’ll be an amazing match. Yastremska in 2-3.
Rybakina vs Blinkova
Blinkova managed to reverse the result against Bucsa which is pretty impressive, and her reward is one of the tournament favorites in good form. Not fair. Pliskova played pretty solid, but Rybakina’s overall level is too high right now for the upset. Blinkova will make her play a bunch of tennis, but Rybakina hits bigger off both wings. Rybakina in 2.
Paolini vs Maria
Paolini is going to quietly zoom through this draw. She beat Shnaider in straights, and now faces Maria who is lucky to be through. Osorio had the first set wrapped up at 5-1 and managed to lose 7-5. She won a second set tiebreaker, but Maria’s slices got to her in the fifth. Even though I see the typo, honestly it felt like they had played five sets by the end of this one. Paolini could have trouble with Maria, but Tatjana seems on her last legs here after a marathon in round one, and Paolini is moving the ball well. Oddly, Maria beat her easily in Indian Wells last season, so I have a hard time justifying why I like Paolini here. Luckily, I am the only one typing. Paolini in 2-3.
Rus vs Kalinskaya
Rus made quick work of the struggling Kalinina, and it makes this a tough prediction. When you know a player is slumping, it’s hard to gauge their opponent’s level in the next round. Rus is playing well, but does that get her somewhere against a good Kalinskaya? I’m not sure. Kalinskaya having a solid backhand somewhat negates Rus being a lefty, and I might like her to win in the end. Kalinskaya in 3.
Stephens vs Kasatkina
Sloane looked really good in round one. Last week she looked her usual disinterested 250 self, but this week somehow her biceps and shoulders look massive. Gadecki got frustrated, but Stephens is playing well. Kasatkina was more solid in the end, but Stearns had her on the ropes. Kasatkina hasn’t looked as solid this year as she did in previous seasons, and it feels like the good Sloane Stephens has a small edge on her. Kasatkina is the better player at this juncture in their careers, but Stephens hits harder than Darya and if you’re picking a player to hold serve with the lead, it’s like Sloane. I’ve been burned before, but I think there is an upset incoming here. Stephens in 3.
Zheng vs Boulter
Zheng managed to outlast the Krueger onslaught, and round two should be similarly difficult. Boulter plays to the level of her opponent, and Zheng has not been automatic at all over the past few months. Boulter is playing well, but Zheng’s power might be a slight difference maker here. Qinwen’s backhand is a little bit stronger also. Zheng in 3.
Raducanu vs Wang
Rogers was rusty, and Raducanu is playing good tennis. She has another winnable match here, but alarm bells should be going off. Late last year Yafan Wang got into a good rhythm, and she won something like 10+ matches in a month. It was at the lower tier, but when she finds her game, she really locks in. Against Cirstea, she was down 6-0, 4-0, and she won the match. Yafan really dug in from the baseline, and once she stops missing it’s really tough to beat her. This is a good look at how far Raducanu can go in this draw. If she can still ply her offense against Wang, she has a real shot against the winner of Zheng/Boulter. I expect this to be a really tough one though, and I’m prepared to eat the L and have the good Raducanu here. Wang in 3. I just haven’t seen Emma win this caliber of match in terms of physicality in quite some time, so I have to doubt a little.
Dodin vs Trevisan
I expected Zhu to struggle to win in straights, but I didn’t think she’d just lose. Dodin’s power is a problem here, and her serving has always been top tier. If she’s hitting the court, she can beat Trevisan, but it’s another tricky opponent for Dodin, and traditionally she hasn’t won these matches. Trevisan will be pleased to have outlasted Zarazua, and this is a pretty simple match against Dodin. If she can make Oceane play a ton of balls, she’ll get errors. It looks like the conditons suit Dodin though, and I think she’ll win in 3.
Burel vs Pegula
Despite being a huge favorite, Burel found herself down a break in both sets in her first round. Clara reeled Krunic back in though, and her reward is a similar opponent in round two. Burel and Pegula both hit very solid, don’t really give up cheap points, and aren’t really regarded as the biggest offenses but both constantly look to score. Pegula hits a bit bigger than Burel, and that’s probably the difference here. Hard to predict the score when players are so similar. It’s possible that they have trouble wresting control of the match, but it’s also possible that the underdog falters in the same frame of each set. I’d say Pegula in 2 single break sets, but oof Pegula does like to do things the hard way.
Sakkari vs Avanesyan
Avanesyan really had Bai shut down in the first round at times, but she couldn’t hold serve at all until late in the second. It’ll be an uphill battle against Sakkari here if that continues, because Maria is playing fairly well. Sakkari in 2.
Kostyuk vs Mertens
Kostyuk is playing decent, and the thought is that Mertens may be running on fumes from her finals run last week. I have a hard time believing that Kostyuk is going to hit through Mertens, but I am a Mertens fan and I usually doubt players who I’ve seen get frustrated on the court. I guess, Kostyuk in three is what’s going to happen, but it feels like this is an even match. Mertens is more solid but Kostyuk’s power is a difference maker when your legs are tired.
Wozniacki vs Timofeeva
Timofeeva won pretty comfortable in round one despite a late surge by Cornet. She has good power, and Alize doesn’t seem 100%. That makes this Wozniacki match a tough one for Timofeeva. She seemed like plan A was to knock Cornet over, and when that got difficult she did force some errors. Since Wozniacki has really solid timing, it could be a match where Timofeeva eventually wears down. I’m not really on board with believing Wozniacki is going to win just because she’s returned to the tour and used to be good, but Timofeeva is similarly unproven and Cornet had been on a losing streak heading into that match. Wozniacki in 3?
Korneeva vs Haddad Maia
Bella Haddad Maia should win this. Sorribes Tormo had Korneeva in some tough spots but she doesn’t really have the power to put players away. BHM won a tough three setter against Fruhvirtova and I think Linda is a tiny bit better than Korneeva at this stage of her career. Haddad Maia in 2.
Garcia vs Frech
Saville was in good shape against Frech but she was visibly agitated out there. She lost confidence in her backhand and that let Frech get a lot of hitting practice. Even though Saville managed to win a tiebreaker in the first, the damage was done. Frech got into solid form and Saville got in her own head a bit. It sets up a nice clash of offenses between Garcia and Frech. Garcia outlasted a resurgent Osaka with some clutch serving, and I think overall she’s just better than Frech. Magdalena does hit pretty clean and she hits hard off both wings, so this is tricky, but Garcia in 2 still feels likely.
Zakharova vs Juvan
Huge win for Zakharova in round one. Solid upset for Juvan. Given the Potapova/Shevchenko/Bublik theory I’m conspiracying, I’m not sure how much I rate the Potapova win. Honestly, I’m not familiar enough with Zakharova here to know how she deals with Juvan’s power. Beating Putintseva is really impressive and rates higher than Juvan for me, but Kaja’s offense can upend a lot of players and junior standouts tend to struggle a bit against big hitters. I think it’ll be close because Juvan does make errors, and if this went to a third I wouldn’t be too surprised. Really not sure here. Zakharova in 3.
Fernandez vs Parks
Snigur was winning but seemed upset. It was a strange match. Parks was making a ton of unforced errors late in the second and was extremely reactive to each one. She implored the sky to help her, but it was more her backhand that she needed to focus on. Parks has great power but lacks a bit of control. In between unforced errors, Parks hit the wide serve from the duece side perfectly. Highlights make it clear that she can compete at the top level on tour, but the lowlights make it clear that any baseliner can give her trouble. It’s a fresh start against Fernandez, but Leylah is likely to do the work and win here. Bejlek played well in the first round, but Fernandez seems focused and her defense is very good. The way she hits her backhand flat is likely to frustrate Parks, and Fernandez is a better returner than Snigur since she doesn’t hit as flat and is a good bit faster. Fernandez also has a stronger serve. Overall, Parks can win in stretches of games here but I don’t think it lasts. Parks maybe needs some time on clay to get her used to minimizing errors, because she’s only losing to unforced errors at this point and she could compete for big titles if she irons that out. Fernandez in 2.
Dolehide vs Gauff
Schmiedlova didn’t hold serve in the first round, but she broke Gauff a number of times. It’s a good scoreboard result for Gauff, but it’s the same slight issue of not being able to really execute the offense she’s trying to play. Dolehide should find some holds of serve against Gauff, but I don’t think she’s solid enough to break as often as Schmiedlova did. Gauff in 2.
Jabeur vs Andreeva
Oooh. This is what we want. Jabeur played well in her first round, and now she plays the player on tour carrying (and deserving) the most hype right now. Andreeva is extremely solid, can rally for days, and has proven to be adept at winning. There are lots of phenoms, but crossing the finish line isn’t something you can teach. I really don’t know what to expect here. Every look at Andreeva vs a top player is exciting. If Jabeur’s level drops of course Andreeva can win, but Jabeur’s offense is probably good enough to score on Andreeva and Ons’ forehand is the biggest weapon on court. This is the match of the day, and I tentatively think Andreeva will frustrate Jabeur into forcing shots, but I am also reminded of how she faltered against Gauff’s power last season. Jabeur and Andreeva both win.
Rakhimova vs Parry
Parry party is on again. Parry beat a very solid opponent in Wang and it’s great to see her winning at a higher tier on hardcourt. Rakhimova also notched a good win, and the manner of her play makes me think she has a good chance here. Bektas was rushed on most shots in the first round. Rakhimova’s timing was excellent, and her pace made it hard for Bektas to find her range. Since Parry has a one-hander and prefers to play at a slower more ornate pace, I think Rakhimova might give her some trouble as well. Since Kamila doesn’t have much of a serve, this isn’t a lock in either direction. I think Rakhimova get it done though. Rakhimova in 2.
Siegemund vs Hunter
Home crowd probably gets spicy here, but I’m not sure if it matters. Siegemund beat Alexandrova and is really solid. Storm Hunter is playing well again, but Errani gave her a little trouble at times. Siegemund has a left thigh injury and that’s likely Hunter’s path to victory. Siegemund is such a good baseliner though I’m not sure how Storm maintains any advantage for long. Siegemund is also off to a good start this year so I think she can pull this off. Siegemund in 3.
Korpatsch vs Krejcikova
Another match to watch Krejcikova try to lose. She hits numerous balls out against Hontama, but a player needs power to really put Krej away. Korpatsch will be similarly tenacious, but I’m not sure if she outlasts Krejcikova either. Or maybe I am? Beating Burrage is around the level that Krejcikova can sink to. Hmm. Krejcikova is just unpredictable right now, but these are pretty safe matches. Krejcikova in 3.
Anisimova vs Podoroska
Podoroska was scary good in round one, but Anisimova was also. Samsonova seems in a slump, but Amanda played well and should win round two. I say should because Podoroska is one of the more unpredictable players on tour. She’ll slump for a while, then go on a run. Her forehand is really fast and she covers the court well. I wouldn’t be shocked if she won a set here. Anisimova beating Samsonova can’t be overlooked though, and these conditions suit her backhand and aggressive play. Anisimova in 3.
Badosa vs Pavlyuchenkova
Badosa is back! She was excellent in round one. She served well, she hit 15 more winners than unforced errors, and she won a match. Now she gets a much tougher match against Pavlyuchenkova. Pavs has been one of the better performers so far this year, and for Badosa to beat her would be a huge leap for her in her comeback from injury. I didn’t catch Badosa Townsend, so I’m blind here. It seems like Badosa has a really good chance to win, but Pavs wins so many matches as an underdog that it’s hard to write her off. Who do you like?
Tsurenko vs Masarova
Suns out, guns out for Tsurenko. She outlasted Bronzetti and looks really strong heading into this contest. Masarova was a bit too strong for Sasnovich, and her power got her through in straight sets. This is an interesting one. I like Masarova’s game and I think her power/consistency are a big weapon for the future, but she can sometimes get undone by slices and long rallies. That’s exactly when Tsurenko will be bringing here, so it’s a tough spot. I guess Masarova wins the early exchanges, and Tsurenko ends up grabbing the win? Tsurenko in 3.
Fruhvirtova B vs Sabalenka
Wow. Great win for Brenda in round one. Bogdan was playing well and just got outlasted. Sabalenka had a similarly impressive match, leaving a talented Siedel on 0,1. Fruhvirtova is solid enough to make this close but I don’t think she can win. Sabalenka has really improved her early round play and should win this in 2.