2024 Australian Open Women's Round Three

Swiatek vs Noskova

No rest for Swiatek in this draw. After a difficult first set, Swiatek really was up against it. She got rolled in the second, and Collins was up 4-2 in the third and Swiatek was serving at 0-40. I felt like there was one point where Danielle eased up for one of the first times since the second set, and Swiatek was able to get to net and finish the rally off with a nice volley. From there, she pretty much dominated. Collins was winning in the scoreline, but she had lost her composure. It’s so difficult to watch someone who’s still in the match react as if they’ve already lost, but it did come true so perhaps she just knew she was losing momentum or running out of gas. In any event, Collins started to miss a lot, and lost her ability to land serves. At the same time, Iga, who generally struggles with her serve in big moments, started to land constant first serves and locate them well. It all added up to Swiatek winning 4 games in a row to close out 6-4.

Collins is great but she attacks only off one wing (bh). Noskova presents trouble on both sides. She hits very flat which gives Swiatek a little trouble, and she’s been working in some dropshots which pairs nicely with her power. She was close to losing against Kessler though, so I’m not expecting her to beat Iga. I think fatigue will play a factor in this one. Noskova is excellent, but she can get tired and force shots. Swiatek is not dominant on hardcourt because of her unforced errors and shanks, but she applies a lot of pressure and when she does get in a rhythm she’s pretty unplayable. I think one set will be close as Noskova is a great frontrunner, but this is likely Swiatek in 2.

Svitolina vs Golubic

Another monster looming in Iga’s draw. Svitolina beat a very solid Tomova in straight sets, and she gets another player here who probably doesn’t have the offense to beat her. It takes a lot to best Elina, because she’s really consistent and she hits a bit harder than most players on tour. Golubic is playing well and has beaten two good baseliners (Siniakova and Kudermetova), but she lacks power and her one-handed backhand might break down here since Svitolina is very content to stay in the cross-court patterns. I think Svitolina also has a big edge here on serve. Svitolina in 2.

Ostapenko vs Azarenka

Immovable object vs unstoppable force. I like these matchups but I always feel bad if the Azarenka’s lose them. Ostapenko just smashes away until it works, and eventually it did against Tomljanovic. She just lost this exact matchup against Aza two weeks ago in Brisbane in a third set, so it’ll be close. Azarenka just had a three setter against Tauson and one against Giorgi, so she’s not exactly blanking her opponents. You kinda know Jelena is going to hit herself out of one of these sets, and you kinda know she’s going to get the better of Azarenka’s passivity in one of them. Who wins a third will really come down to serving. Azarenka landed 64% of her first serves in the third against Tauson, and that’s probably good enough to hold off Ostapenko. This will be played in a stadium court as well, so it might be slightly slower conditions and the big match atmosphere is something that Azarenka manages well. I might be surprised by how resilient Ostapenko is, but I think losing a few weeks ago will bother her if things go sideways and she’s not the most dependable subject in the study. Azarenka in 3.

Navarro vs Yastremska

Cocciaretto did her best, but Navarro again wins behind her forehand. She makes the 2/3 structure feel like a marathon, and she just keeps swinging big until her opponent relinquinshes control. It’s a good run for her and the more comfortable she is in the rankings the more free she can play. Next is a player who would be a huge story this week were seeds not dropping left and right. Yastremska has pulled off two solid upsets this week and is dangerous here as well. She hits bigger than Navarro, and her forehand is a rocket currently. I’m not sure she’s more consistent though over a long match, and Emma has proven to be able to withstand some pretty solid offensive barrages. This probably goes to tiebreakers or winds up in a third. Yastremska’s current ceiling is very undefined so this is not a safe match for Navarro at all, but she should win in 3 just because the first two opponents Dayana faced weren’t really playing the same level of offense she is.

Blinkova vs Paolini

IS NO ONE SAFE? After some wild 5 setters and some big upsets, I was forced to go to sleep. I woke up to check scores and Blinkova was up a break in the third against Rybakina. Wut? Rybakina broke back and I went back to sleep, only to wake up and see they played the longest tiebreaker in Australian Open history AND Blinkova won it. Amazing stuff for her, and Rybakina looks to be one of the final victims of last week’s tournament curse. She was hitting so clean all week, but her play in Melbourne was not as sharp and some late unforced errors on her forehand hurt her. Huge result for Blinkova, who now faces a player she’s beaten twice on hardcourt. Their last meeting was in Cluj-Napoca and Blinkova won in a third. Tricky spot because despite beating Rybakina, these are two very similar players.

Paolini is in great form and beat Tatjana Maria in straight sets. If there’s an emotional letoff from Blinkova after beating a grand slam champion and top seed, it’ll be Paolini’s day. It’s common to feel such exultation after a big upset that you just come in flat the next round, and also the player you’re facing gets extra motivated when they see the draw potentially start to clear out. I know I’d rather play Blinkova than Rybakina. Blinkova is playing well, so I think this goes three. I’m leaning towards Paolini but I don’t have a great reason why other than the letdown after a big win. Paolini in 3.

Kalinskaya vs Stephens

Kalinskaya played great against Rus, but Aranxta really let her control things with her court positioning. She stayed behind the baseline for most of this match, and it’s hard to hit through a solid player from there. Her next opponent will be a bit tougher, as Stephens seems pretty motivated at this event. She lost a tough first set against Kasatkina, but from there she dominated affairs. I liked the way she went after her backhand, and her power played a big role. It feels like the power differential is not as big against Kalinskaya, and that might be a factor. Stephens has two losses this year and they’re against Mertens and Yuan, players with very similar approaches to Kalinskaya. This will be another long match. Just running through their games, Kalinskaya has an edge on the backhand, Sloane’s forehand is heavier, and Stephens can serve bigger but she can also lose confidence in her delivery.

Everything here says Stephens wins. She beat Kasatkina, who Kalinskaya just lost to in straights. She’s playing motivated tennis, and she won their previous meeting. It was a withdrawal though, and I’ve liked the pace Anna has played at this week. Leaning into the slight upset here. Kalinskaya in 3.

Zheng vs Wang

Wang in form is a problem. It’s been evident two rounds in a row. Zheng should be solid enough to beat her though. Raducanu is all offense and basically got outlasted. Cirstea is the same. Zheng is an offensive talent but her best feature are her repeatable mechanics and her serve. It will let her rally even with Wang, and score a little easier late in sets. Straight setting Boulter is pretty impressive too. At this point, you can’t really rule out Wang instilling doubt in an opponent, but this is a spot where Zheng hits bigger and is just as consistent. She might lose confidence in brief stretches, but since Wang wins from the baseline Zheng should have time to recover. Zheng in 2-3.

Dodin vs Burel

Dodin! Some great crowd support and some big hitting got her past Trevisan, who went through the full range of emotions in this match. When Trevisan had balls to hit, she found easy winners, but Dodin kept most points short and Trevisan had trouble getting in a rhythm. Oceane actually only landed 1 first serve when she was serving for the match, so it was an extra surprising win. Next is a familiar opponent who she has somehow never played. Burel is through after a surprising straight set win against Pegula. I mentioned Pegula loving to go three, but she kept us guessing her by going home.

Dodin’s trouble in rallies against Trevisan will be magnified here. She has great power, but Burel is a much better hardcourt player than Martina, and she has some wins against big hitters in the past (Rybakina comes to mind). She’s in good form, and this will probably be a win for her. Dodin has started off quickly in all her matches and she has a huge serve and good power so this could be trouble if it’s close at the end of sets, I just think Burel will find a way to outlast her. Burel in 2-3.

Avanesyan vs Kostyuk

Huge upset for Avanesyan, and Sakkari has gotten us again. She plays well for a while, then throws in a random loss. Her, Pegula, and a few others seem beatable at any given moment even when they played well the round before. Avanesyan has trouble landing serves, but she’s a wall out there, and Sakkari just didn’t play offensive enough. Outlasting Avanesyan is tough, as I’m sure Kostyuk is about to find out. Kostyuk was able to hit through Mertens though, and she’s been in good form this week so I think Avanesyan finally finds a loss. Kostyuk is an aggressive returner and Avanesyan has a poor first serve percentage at times. The win against Sakkari was great, but it feels like Sakkari let that happen. Kostyuk in 2-3.

Timofeeva vs Haddad Maia

The Timofeeva Wozniacki match was some of the most exciting tennis of the first week. Wozniacki was playing really well and was extremely accurate. Her backhand looks annoying to play against, and her depth of shot does also. Timofeeva was down 5-1, and she was upset, but she didn’t alter her game. She kept hitting the court, seeming willing to accept the loss if it came. I love the composure from a young player to be willing to try their hardest but not go outside their usual game, even when facing the prospect of a loss. She went down an early break in the second, but eventually Wozniacki started to slow down. Timofeeva’s forehand started to win some exchanges, and her backhand down the line became a problem. She was able to serve herself out of trouble a handful of times, and she ran away with the third. I cannot say enough about the level-headed competing she did in this match, and she was sarcastically griping to her box for much of the match so it’s a pretty good tennis base that can overcome mental struggles and remain solid.

Next for Timofeeva is a tougher opponent. Haddad is not as accurate as Wozniacki, but she hits a heavier ball and she doesn’t get tired. The unforced errors are what BHM is looking for, and Timofeeva still hits a few too many. This feels like a spot where Timofeeva will be competitive in one set, but Wozniacki could have had her had she not lost a step as the match progressed. Looking for Bella to win this one with her legs, and playing a lefty is always tricky. Haddad Maia in 2-3.

Frech vs Zakharova

Garcia losing was not something I expected at all. Frech is solid, but she doesn’t have huge weapons to set her apart from Caroline and I thought she’d end up struggling. Not the case though, and for a player who got stuck off tour for a while this is a good result. Also a good result is Zakharova making the third round as a qualifier. She was too solid for Juvan in round two and Kaja kept sending the ball long under the pressure. Frech is favored here but I’m not sure how she’ll win. Zakharova is extremely solid and doesn’t give up cheap errors. She seems pretty content to grind away in rallies and that was working for Saville in round one against Frech. If Frech gets this I think it will be in three. I might be overestimating Zakharova’s durability but I think she pulls the upset here. Zakharova in 2.

Parks vs Gauff

Fernandez was up 4-1 in the first set against Parks but things went downhill from there. Alycia’s power proved a big factor, and her serving is world class from the duece side. She can hit the wide serve from there consistently, and Fernandez’s backhand production is not great at swinging above her elbow/shoulder at all. She doesn’t have a great slice return from there either, and it felt like she threatened Parks often but couldn’t stop her from scoring from the duececourt.

Parks is dangerous against Gauff because Gauff struggled last round with Dolehide’s offense, but I think Gauff is better suited to return the wide serve. She takes a pretty high swing with her forehand in general, she’s taller than Fernandez, and she’s faster. Her team will have told her to sit on that delivery, so Parks will want to mix it up a little. I thought errors would undo Parks against Fernandez, but she played solid. Gauff’s weight of shot is a bit more though, so I think the errors do come here. This section of the draw opens up nicely though, and Parks is the type of player whose game translates well to the big stage. She has a great serve, she goes for big shots, and she’s a great athlete. Her attitude on the court is a motivator to her opponents, but she emotes equally when things go good and bad so she may just be comfortable in that style. End of the road or possible new Grand Slam champion. Hmm. I think Gauff in 2-3. She’s just a lot harder to hit through than Fernandez and all the trouble on serve isn’t guaranteed to continue. Look at how Swiatek found her range late against Collins. These top players find a way to win.

Andreeva vs Parry

Andreeva was scary good against Jabeur. Ons made some errors but Mirra moved the ball to small targets and nonstop. Jabeur had no chance, and it doesn’t feel like many players do if Andreeva plays like that. Parry had a tough match with Rakhimova, but the edge was her forehand. Rakhimova wanted to isolate Parry’s backhand, but Diane just camped in that corner and when she went inside in, Kamila was unable to run them down. Parry has a complete game so I think she does better against Andreeva than Jabeur, but she makes a few more errors than the junior standout. I think forcing offense will undo her, but her power does give her a puncher’s chance. Andreeva in 2.

Hunter vs Krejcikova

Honestly, I didn’t expect Hunter to play as well as she did against Siegemund. She hit big looping forehands deep in the court, and had more power than she has in some of her previous outtings on tour. Siegemund seemed in a rush in this one. She constantly looked to supply offense, but the match was a little simpler than she made it. The errors flowed and Hunter was able to come away with a huge win for her career. She’s been stuck playing doubles so this is big and a big payout. I also don’t see why she can’t beat Krejcikova. Krejcikova has been getting through a very lucky draw, and this is just another winnable match.

If Krejcikova hits the court, she’s very good. If she flails the ball long on her forehand and wide on her backhand, everyone winds up in a third set with her. I’m pretty sure she’s the favorite to win, but Hunter’s level against Siegemund vs the Krejcikova we saw in round one would be a win. Tough to gauge which Barbora shows up. I’ll try believing in her. Krejcikova in 3.

Anisimova vs Badosa

Do you know who’s going to win this match? I kinda don’t. Two players who’ve done not much for over a season now randomly show up and play their best tennis. Anisimova’s backhand and power are scary, and can score on anyone. Badosa beating Pavlyuchenkova 6-2, 6-3 is pretty amazing because Pavs was in good form. I think here defense will beat offense. Anisimova is playing well but she is still making some errors (36 unforced against Podoroska). There isn’t really a great way to read this one because both are finding their old games and they haven’t played much tennis of late. Badosa seems to have the more repeatable path to the end, and I think this is the toughest test Anisimova has faced thus far. Badosa in 3.

Tsurenko vs Sabalenka

Sabalenka continues to roll through her early rounds. She’s hitting the court, and that means she wins. There is no one else on tour with her power aside from Rybakina, and Aryna is the defending champ which means there is some underlying confidence in her play. Tsurenko is a tricky opponent because she’s so consistent and has sneaky power, but it feels like these two are in different weight classes right now. Sabalenka in 2.