2024 Australian Open Women's Round One

Swiatek vs Kenin

The title here at the Australian Open is one of the most exciting that the WTA has seen in a long time. Rybakina looks flawless, and has instant motivation having lost last year’s final. Sabalenka is the defending champ, and looks really focused leading into this event. It’s unlikely that either have much trouble in the early rounds with their high octane offense, so the eyes and question marks shift here to Iga Swiatek.

Despite not being the most dominant on hardcourt, Swiatek has dished out some of the most avalanche beatdowns on tour. The early games can be close and she does give up some early breaks, but once she gets in a groove it becomes tough to win even a single game against her. What she does here matters a great deal, because despite being the world #1, she’s the wildcard in the first tier of title challengers. Can she deal with players who can match her pace? Can she temper her offense enough to avoid unforced errors on the forehand wing against Rybakina? CAN SHE FLY? CAN SHE GO INVISIBLE? Sky is the limit for Iga.

Up first is Sofia Kenin, who has hinted at finding her old game, but can’t keep that level for more than a set or two. I don’t think her forehand holds up in the long run here, but she’s a big match player so she’ll know how to compete in the first set. We’re expecting big things from Swiatek, and this is the first look at who in the draw can actually trouble her. Swiatek in 2.

Collins vs Kerber

It’s nice to have Angelique Kerber back on tour, and she plays a familiar opponent here. Danielle Collins and her have met three times in the past (way back in 2019) but Collins won their previous meeting at the Australian Open. Kerber had some good warmup matches at the United Cup, but was only able to defeat Ajla Tomljanovic. She certainly can compete with Collins, who isn’t at her best and has just lost to Zhu, Mertens, and Andreeva, but Collins plays her best tennis at the Australian Open and she’s a little sharper than Kerber. Should be a good quality match, but Collins should be a game or two better at this stage of their career. Collins in 3.

Ferro vs Kessler

Fiona Ferro has been fairly disappointing for the past few seasons but the last few weeks she’s been downright reliable. She was dominant in the qualifiers, and she can probably beat McCartney Kessler. Kessler is a strong baseliner but she lacks power and doesn’t serve huge. Ferro loses to unforced errors but when she’s playing well those aren’t very present. Her backhand takeback is really hard to read and her forehand is exceptional. This feels like another tough draw for Kessler, who ran into a red-hot Lulu Sun in Auckland. Given Ferro’s three set match with P. Kudermetova, I wouldn’t call her a lock here, but she’s likely to be more capable on offense in a third. Ferro in 3.

Bouzkova vs Noskova

I was surprised to see that Bouzkova has won the previous meetings of these two. I know Bouzkova doesn’t miss, and her defense is solid, but Linda Noskova has the type of power and offense that generally can get the jump on her. Noskova just turned in a great performance in Brisbane, beating Cirstea, Riera, and Andreeva. Bouzkova has been really active as well, beating Golubic, Frech, and Anisimova. All this spells a very high quality clash between two players quite familiar with each other. Noskova will want to isolate Bouzkova’s forehand, but her struggles with consistency will be a problem here, and when Bouzkova dominates a h2h she tends to dig in even when things aren’t going her way (the heroic win against Garcia last year at the USO comes to mind). I wouldn’t really be confident backing either player here, but Bouzkova in good form is probably the favorite. Bouzkova in 3.

Svitolina vs Preston

Svitolina is a big pick here but Taylah Preston has been really impressive to start this year. The 18 year old has beaten Astakhova, McPhee, Aiava, and she took a set off Caroline Garcia and Nao Hibino. Beating Svitolina is too much of an ask, but I am loving what I’m seeing from the next generation of WTA pros. They are all ready to play and there doesn’t seem to be a pusher among them. Svitolina in 2 entertaining sets.

Day vs Tomova

Tomova was one of the brighter points of last week, and it makes her a favorite here against Kayla Day. One of the bright points of her run was a demolition of Tatjana Maria, who is almost always a difficult out. Tomova’s power and form give her a good chance against Kayla Day, but peaking players always make me scared of a regression from week to week. Day has proven she can hang at the tour level for at least a set, so the more consistent baseline overall here should win. I’m guessing that’ll be Tomova. Tomova in 3.

Cristian vs Siniakova

Siniakova is playing well to start to year, with wins against Pliskova and Pera and a close loss to Pavlyuchenkova. Good Siniakova is hard to beat. Jacqueline Cristian is off to a rough start, and it’s hard to see her outlasting Siniakova here. Siniakova in 2.

Golubic vs Kudermetova

Golubic is a pretty solid baseliner, but Kudermetova should have more power here. Two problems put that in question. One, Kudermetova’s random slump that’s been going on for 6-7 months now. Two, Golubic playing some of her best tennis to start the year. I don’t think it adds up to a complete upset, but Kudermetova is not reliable here. Kudermetova in 2, probably, maybe.

Ostapenko vs Birrell

Despite her attitude not really changing, Ostapenko has almost become a consistent producer on tour. She smashes away, but it works. It feels like her best boost has come from just being very active on tour. The more you play, the more produceable your offense becomes. Birrell is not at her best, so this should go to Jelena in 2.

Martic vs Tomljanovic.

Before injury took her off tour, Ajla was hinting at becoming one of the top players. Since returning, she hasn’t been the same per sae but she’s pretty competitive. Martic had a good week in Auckland, winning a skilled clash against Masarova and defeating Yue Yuan. It’s hard to picture Ajla’s first big match back on tour being a win against a player in pretty good form, but she has had success against Martic in the past, winning her sole win (1-2 lifetime) at the 2021 US Open. There are a ton of difficult matches in this draw, and this is one of them where I’m picking against my own gut. Power can give Martic trouble, and her backhand slice gave Masarova a lot of trouble so I think Ajla will be a bit safer since she’s shorter. Tomljanovic in 3.

Minnen vs Tauson

Clara Tauson is pretty tough to predict, but she should win here. Minnen is one of the few servebots on the women’s tour, but Tauson’s power should be able to give her an edge since Minnen’s lateral movement is a step too slow for the tour. Tauson in 2.

Giorgi vs Azarenka

Azarenka is a bit too solid for Giorgi. Giorgi has had a slow start to her year and I don’t expect her to get it going here given the 400 balls Vika will make her play. Azarenka in 2-3.

Navarro vs Xiyu Wang

Wang is playing really well, and should have a good year. She might be a tad bit less consistent than Navarro here, but this is a match of two huge forehands. Wang being lefty always helps, but Navarro has won more tough matches and will have the confidence to play freely in the big moments. Navarro in 2.

Cocciaretto vs Sun

Lulu Sun was impressive in qualifying and Cocciaretto has been sliding a little bit. She’s lost to Pacquet, Putintseva, and Andreeva recently which leaves the upset feeling very possible here. The good Cocciaretto has power and a solid serve, but Sun’s lefty serve has been paying dividends and she’s very comfortable in these conditions. If Sun is to win, I’d expect it to be in straight sets. If it gets close I like Cocciaretto. Sun in 2 or Cocciaretto in 3.

Wickmayer vs Gracheva

Gracheva is winning matches but she seems a bit off of late. It gives Yanina Wickmayer an equal chance to win here, as the talented lefty server is always a threat in the early rounds at majors and in qualifying. If Gracheva does win, it will likely be by outlasting Wickmayer, but given her recent play and record, it feels like Varvara has found a way to navigate the rough patches. I started out thinking I like Wickmayer, but I’m not sure anymore. Hmm. Wickmayer in 3.

Yastremska vs Vondrousova

Yastremska qualifying is a good sign, as consistency is one of her issues. She has the power to hit through anyone, but Vondrousova is probably not part of that solution set here. Marketa is one of the stickiest defenders on tour, and her 2023 was her best season yet so she’ll be brimming with confidence but also will be able to play freely this season. Dayana could get off to a quick start, but Vondrousova in 2-3.

Rybakina vs Pliskova

Rybakina looks exceptional right now. She’s hitting the ball cleaner than anyone on tour. Pliskova will have to wait to get her 2024 going. Rybakina in 2.

Bucsa vs Blinkova

I felt like Blinkova could stop the Bucsa train, but last year in Limoges Bucsa beat her 2,3. She’s also having a slightly better start to 2024 than Blinkova, who has lost both her opening matches. I really hate to be swayed by match-data, but I’m switching my pick here to Bucsa. Bucsa in 2-3.

Maria vs Osorio

Tatjana Maria getting rolled by Tomova makes me think she could lose this match as well. Osorio is a very high quality baseliner and is willing to play a marathon of tennis. These are the qualities you need to best Maria, but I imagine this will take a while. Osorio in 3.

Shnaider vs Paolini

Shnaider can casually smash through anyone, so this could be a close match. Her stamina has been questionable so both players route to the finish line are clear. Paolini can extend rallies and focus on moving Shnaider, and Shnaider can focus on her usual game which is big offerings from the forehand. Paolini in 3.

Kalinina vs Rus

Kalinina can be an explosive offensive presence, but she can also lose to anyone. Lately she’s been losing, so Rus oddly feels like the favorite here. Given Kalinina’s quality and the fact that both are big hitters, I think they will split sets. Rus in 3.

Kalinskaya vs Volynets

Volynets triumph against Riera was one of the most nerve-wracking matches of the year. They constantly exchanged and saved breaks and Volynets looked completely out of it at times, but she held her composure and triumphed. She’ll have a similar amount of pressure here, as Kalinskaya is playing decent ball to start the year. It feels like Kalinskaya’s backhand will be the biggest shot on the court, but Volynets consistency and fight can go a long way. Tricky spot. Kalinskaya in 2-3.

Stephens vs Gadecki

The only Stephens matches I’ve seen this season have been at 250s. I just don’t think she cares much about those. Her play is highlighted by general refusal to move her feet between shots, and middling intensity. Despite these issues, she still can almost beat most players on tour. On the other side of the effort spectrum, Gadecki has been playing as hard as she can pretty much nonstop lately. She hits big and this is a winnable match for her. She just lost to Rybakina but they had a number of solid rallies and that’s the kind of training that a young player needs. The good Sloane is a wall. She hits hard and she’s able to put the extra ball in play to extend rallies. The bad Sloane loses this match in three sets. Tough to decide who will appear but since it’s a major I think she’ll make her best effort. Stephens in 3.

Stearns vs Kasatkina

Last season when this matchup happened I thought Peyton Stearns had a chance. She has a similar game to Kasatkina, and perhaps a better serve/forehand. She got dismissed though. Kasatkina’s ability to defend just seems to shut down all but the best offenses on tour. It’s a different style, but she reminds me a bit of De Minaur where everyone ranked lower has no shot, but she similarly doesn’t beat the players ranked higher. That reputation is starting to fade as De Minaur has finally gotten a win against Medvedev (and Novak in an exhibition) so maybe good things are to come for Kasatkina. For this match, it’s hard to expect another blowout, but Kasatkina should have a path to victory. Kasatkina in 2.

Zheng vs Krueger

Ashlyn Krueger is currently in her early Sabalenka/Rybakina phase. She has a great serve, and can crush winners, but she’s losing to errors still. When this changes, she’ll settle in the top 50 on tour and her ceiling can be much higher. For now, Zheng (even thought she’s been having a subdued season) just goes about things in a more consistent and professional manner. She’s good at dealing with power, and discipline should win this. Zheng in 2-3.

Boulter vs Yuan

This should be a really good match. Boulter won a few matches at the United Cup (including Pegula) and played well at Adelaide. Yuan made a good run at Hobart including wins against Xinyu Wang, Sloane Stephens, and Putintseva. Boulter is probably a bit better on serve but I think Yuan’s level stays steady for longer in this match. More entertaining than predictable here, but Yuan in 3 is what I’d expect.

Raducanu vs Rogers

Shelby hasn’t played tennis since Wimbledon. Raducanu has actually been winning matches. It makes this feel simple. Raducanu in 2.

Wang Yafan vs Cirstea

Wang closed out last season as one of the best performers in the Challenger/250 level. This will be a tough opener for Cirstea, but she has enough power and offense to weather the storm. If she has a bad day, she’ll be outta there, but there’s nothing to indicate that Cirstea isn’t ready to play. Cirstea in 3.

Zhu vs Dodin

Lin Zhu has shown signs of a struggle so far this year, but she’s still winning matches. The struggles mean that a surging Oceane Dodin can do okay here, but she withdrew from her last match and it’s tough for her to play as many balls as is required to beat Zhu. Could possibly go 3 if Dodin is serving well, but Zhu should win.

Trevisan vs Zarazua

Double Spiderman action here. Both these players are looking to outlast their opponents. Neither really can here. Zarazua’s backhand is in great form lately, but Trevisan can rally all day. This will be a battle of wills, and I’m not sure who will triumph. Someone in 3 … hours.

Krunic vs Burel

Burel has been playing well lately, so even though Krunic has good experience this should go to her. Burel in 2-3.

Marino vs Pegula

Great job qualifying for Marino, but Pegula is going to be able to expose her lateral movement a bit too easily. Pegula is Pegula so she might try to find a way to be down 4-0 or something, but Pegula in 2.

Sakkari vs Hibino

Sakkari played well in the United Cup and this should be a simple first round match. Hibino is a solid baseliner but she doesn’t have power and she doesn’t have a serve. Sakkari in 2 (same Pegula caveat applies).

Bai vs Avanesyan

Bai is a hardcourt specialist and she’s been thriving just off tour. Since Avanesyan is mostly a clay-courter, this is about even. For me, Avanesyan’s ability to defend makes her a tough out for Bai and I think she’ll have enough time to find her best gear. Leaning into the slight upset here, but Bai is the sure thing. Avanesyan in 3.

Kostyuk vs Liu

This feels dangerous for Kostyuk. Something about Claire Liu has her showing up and losing a bunch of matches, then randomly beating an offensive talent. She snagged Giorgi and Townsend last week, so Kostyuk will need to get off to a quick start and maintain focus. Liu’s flat hitting can be frustrating, and Kostyuk has the mental fortitude of Marta Kostyuk so this one is in question. Kostyuk in 3, we hope.

Sherif vs Mertens

Mertens! Elyse is coming off a finals run so she should be able to beat Sherif.

Linette vs Wozniacki

The Woz has had some high profile first rounds so it’ll be interesting to see how she fares with the tour’s 2nd and 3rd tier players. Linette can be really difficult but she’s struggled to find wins lately. It feels like Wozniacki’s discipline will pay dividends here. Wozniacki in 3.

Cornet vs Timofeeva

Cornet withdrew from her last match so Timofeeva should like her chances here. Cornet is a great match-player but she seems to finally be losing a step, and constant fitness issues can raise and lower her level in different stretches of the season. Timofeeva is on a good run and I think it continues. Timofeeva in 2-3.

Sorribes Tormo vs Korneeva

Another big test for a junior standout. Korneeva has the ability to win this match but it will be our first look at her mental game. Tormo will make you play a million balls to win a set and she’ll make a good deal of noise while doing so. Korneeva winning this will be a career-changing W and I’m not sure if she’s ready, but I would expect this to wind up in at least a third set. She is that good and also junior players tend not to have the mental scar tissue of missing in big matches. Her game being unfamiliar to Tormo also will make it a bit harder for Sara to defend when Koreneeva has time/control of the rallies. Korneeva in 3.

Fruhvirtova vs Haddad Maia

Linda Fruhvirtova is dangerous in this spot, but she hasn’t been able to hit consistent levels of performance on tour. These are good court conditions for her, but Haddad Maia is a really difficult player to hit through and Fruhvirtova can get a bit frustrated out there. Expecting stamina to play a factor here. BHM in 3.

Garcia vs Osaka

This is the best match of the first round. Osaka returning to the tour is exciting, and she looked very solid in her first few matches. She lost to Pliskova, but I liked what I saw. Her service motion looks hesitant, but it’s still a strong delivery. Her forehand is still able to create clean winners from anywhere. Her inside out backhand seemed really efficient and well used. Her and Garcia seem like very similar players at this juncture. Both are looking to return aggressively, both will pile up the unforced errors, both can play at an offensive level that can beat anyone on tour. Osaka can win this if Garcia doesn’t bring her best, and thus far this season she hasn’t seemed automatic. The loss to Pliskova makes me question Osaka’s mental stamina, but these are good conditions for her and she won’t have any pressure since she’s facing one of the better names on tour. I just like her defending and her forehand a bit more than Garcia’s. Osaka in 2-3.

Frech vs Saville

Daria Saville is playing great tennis, so she really should get the win here. Frech is a good player and Saville isn’t a dominant physical presence, so it could be close. Saville in 2-3.

Putintseva vs Zakharova

It’s hard to predict how Putintseva will fare on any given day. She’s playing decent to start the year but she’s a pusher with fitness and anger issues, and that’s an odd combo for results. Zakharova and her played last year with Putintseva winning 6-2, 7-5. Since Zakharova is a junior, you can expect at least that result on her end. Beating Waltert in straights (final round of qualifying) is pretty impressive to me, so I am expecting this match to be close. In the end, Putintseva in half decent form should win. Putintseva in 3.

Juvan vs Potapova

Should be a hard-hitting affair, with Potapova proving to be the slightly more consistent player. Potapova in 3.

Fernandez vs Bejlek

Bejlek played really solid in qualifying, which sets up an all-lefty affair. Bejlek wins with consistent defensive play, and unfortunately Fernandez does the same thing. I think Leylah’s physicality will prove the slight difference here, and although she’s only played exhibitions recently she’s been winning matches. Fernandez in 2-3.

Parks vs Snigur

Snigur was the best player in qualifying, and it spells a tough opener for Alycia Parks. Parks has a wide range of play. At her best, she can compete with the top of the tour. At her middle, she can wind up in a third set with anyone solid. Snigur’s forehand production is one of the strangest on tour, and she has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, including a wild match against peak Simona Halep. I think her comfort with the conditions and her unique game will take Parks a while to figure out, and since the American can get frustrated out there, the upset is likely. Snigur in 2-3.

Dolehide vs Jeanjean

Jeanjean can be written off time and time again, but she has the ability to win big matches with her forehand. She proved that in qualifying, upsetting Eva Lys. Up next is Dolehide, who seems to be realizing her potential this year. She’s just lost to Zhu, but she was projected to do well and she wound up in a decider. I don’t think Jeanjean is an automatic win for Dolehide, but if she serves well she should have a big edge. It’s always a bit off to make blanket statements. When you make generalizations, you’re always some % wrong, and you agitate that % of people who don’t fit that mold, or force other people to point out the flaws in your assumption. That being said, it’s hard to believe in Americans in overseas tournaments. There is always a great deal of visible potential with the USTA players, but they play such a serve/forehand heavy approach that when they face difficulty, things can get tricky. It also feels like a great tactic early in a match, but as the physical wear and tear works in it can be easier for the more complete players to maintain their level. If this goes to a third, I probably like Jeanjean. Most likely, Dolehide in 2.

Schmeidlova vs Gauff

Gauff won a title already this year, but this is still a scary match. Schmiedlova hits the ball hard, and can rally with just about anyone on tour. She isn’t the best offensive mind out there, but the path to beating Gauff is usually patience. My reasoning for Gauff being in slight danger is the regression she had against Svitolina. Yes, Gauff can keep the ball in play endlessly, but she tends to alternate between “instant offensive attempts” and “pushy defensive hoping”. Her ability to lock down on defense is what wins her matches, and her impatient heat checks are what forces her to have to go into lockdown mode. I’d really like to see her adopt a more measured approach when she’s on even terms or has the lead. Yes, she should aim high with her offense and she is capable of playing at those high levels, but no I don’t think they’re entirely necessary. Other top players are taking smaller risks with the same rewards, and the number one thing Gauff needs to maintain during a tournament is confidence in her serve. Her serve makes her a top 10 player when it’s on, and when it’s off she’ll have trouble with the Schmiedlova’s of the tour. Gauff in 2-3, but I’d maybe like to see a coaching shift this season so she can get to that next level and stay there.

Jabeur vs Starodubtseva

Jabeur hasn’t played at all, and Starodubtseva has been very active and winning. I think Jabeur should win, but this could get into scary territory in the early-goings and we’ve all seen how quickly Jabeur can get flustered on the court. Jabeur in 2-3, but she’s a flight risk for me until I see her win a match.

Andreeva M. vs Pera

Tough opener for Pera. I do think her power/offense are not opponent dependent, so she should give Andreeva a bit of trouble, but this is a tough ask and Pera has not hit her best tennis yet this year. Andreeva, on the other hand, has. With Jabeur waiting in the second round, there’s a good chance she inherits a very nice section of draw. Andreeva in 2.

Rakhimova vs Bektas

Two very familiar opponent here. Bektas and Rakhimova traded three setters in 2023. I’d expect more of that here. I do like Rakhimova consistency, but Bektas’ forehand should be a difference maker and given their history she’ll have quite a lot of time to get it going. Bektas in 3.

Wang Xinyu vs Parry

Wang had a great 2023, but it was sort of a surprise. Her early 2024 struggles don’t bother me that much, but Diane Parry is a really tough out. It’s easy to see Wang’s forehand and thing she’ll dominate matches, but Parry is very capable from the baseline and has a lot of skill in her one-hander so there is little chance this match will be straightforward. Wang should find a win here, but Parry is a scary opponent. Wang in 3.

Alexandrova vs Siegemund

Alexandrova had a decent week, upsetting Rybakina and Kudermetova. Siegemund was playing exceptional tennis, but she was forced to withdraw against Kasatkina in Adelaide. I would never expect Alexandrova matches to be simple, but against an injured opponent she should win in straights.

Hunter vs Errani

Somehow Storm Hunter is back and she’s playing well. As a result, she should be favored here against Errani, who is plucky but a step slow. Hunter in 2.

Korpatsch vs Burrage

Burrage probably has the more exciting game, but Korpatsch is tenacious. She will defend and put extra balls back and her serve is not so bad. Either Burrage finds her best tennis, or she’ll lose this in three.

Hontama vs Krejcikova

Krejcikova is really extending this slump thing as far as she can. There doesn’t seem to be anything wrong with her game, but she doesn’t look that jazzed out there. We need more jazz out of you pls Barbora. Mai Hontama is a likely candidate to profit from Krej’s errors, but I’m not sure if she’ll be able to hold serve if she gets the lead. Krejcikova should win this and she has a really soft section of the draw, so it’d be nice to see her wake up and enjoy the tennis.

Samsonova vs Anisimova

Samsonova and Anisimova could really use a win right now. I think Samsonova is a bit more sharp at this juncture, but its nice to have Anisimova back. Samsonova in 2.

Podoroska vs Zidansek

Very similar players here. Both dominate with their forehand and both prefer clay. Not a lot to separate them, but I think Podoroska has been a bit more active. Podoroska in 3.

Townsend vs Badosa

Is Badosa still good? She’s projected to win this one, but I haven’t really seen her as active or motivated in a while. She used to be a defensive specialist who was near impossible to hit through, and whose height and serve gave her a special boost. Her forehand has faded though, and idk it does not seem like she’s at her most reliable. Townsend has a really sharp offense, so Badosa will need to really show up in order to win. Badosa in 3 because it’s good for the draw.

Pavlyuchenkova vs Vekic

Big hitting will be on display here. Vekic could play at a high level at any moment, but Pavlychenkova has been more active to start the year and she’s played well. Pavlychenkova in 2-3.

Tsurenko vs Bronzetti

Tsurenko is always a tough player in these early rounds, but Bronzetti seems like a very similar player to her. Lucia hasn’t been sharp to start the year but I fail to see how Tsurenko will score easily on her. Bronzetti hits harder on the backhand wing, and I think this match will take a long time. I’m a Bronzetti fan to take this with a grain of salt, but Bronzetti in 3.

Masarova vs Sasnovich

Another player I’m kind of a fan of. Rebeka Masarova has a really good game. Good serve, excellent forehand, solid but measured aggression. She was exposed by Martic in Auckland, with her height becoming an issue against Martic’s low slices. Sasnovich has some similar tricks, but her backhand hits flat more often and I think Masarova will ultimately have more power. This should be really close, and will likely end up in a third set. My heart says Masarova but Sasnovich is likely more consistent overall.

Fruhvirtova B vs Bogdan

Classic junior standout vs tour veteran matchup here. Fruhvirtova’s best tennis can win, but Bogdan’s backhand and experience will win if it goes to a third. I’m more excited about Fruhvirtova’s ceiling than I am able to predict it. I would guess that Bogdan wins in 3, but I’m okay with any result.

Sabalenka vs Seidel

Sabalenka’s team will be warning her that this first round is no joke. Seidel rolled through qualifying, including beating a very solid Baptiste in straight sets in the final round. Yes, Sabalenka has been much sharper in early rounds, but after her rough performance against Rybakina in the finals a week ago, she’ll need to reset and play consistent tennis or this could wind up being one of her classic come from behind victories. Sabalenka in 2-3.