2024 Australian Open Women's Round Four

Noskova vs Svitolina

Yoink. Noskova has stolen the first seed’s draw after another great display of offense tennis. With time, she is really difficult to deal with. Linda hits so flat that if her shots land deep it’s really difficult to do much with them. She hits across her forehand with great technique and it makes the inside-out forehands bend away and makes her crosscourt/inside in forehand swerve in a difficult manner for players with a very Western forehand. It isn’t that it’s unreturnable, but it forces the player to go with much more spin than pace and this shot tends to go down the line/towards the middle. Since Noskova has such a good backhand inside-out and cross, she can step towards that ball and really the opponent is frozen because they have to recover to center but if they do the down the line is always a point. There are a few players this week that are really unplayable if you give them time and they’re inside the baseline (Dodin comes to mind), and Noskova is one of them.

Swiatek is one of the best players on tour, but her hardcourt tennis isn’t automatic yet. She had some trouble in each round, and it appears to be her timing on defense (on fast courts) that’s the trouble. She gets to the ball but sometimes she slides into it and misses, sometimes she gets there early and gets a little handcuffed, and sometimes she’s a bit too willing to go down the line with her backhand.

On TV it looks much easier to just execute every time than it is out on the court, and in these quick conditions the prospect of playing carefully might seem like it isn’t an option, but it feels like Swiatek could ease off the gas a bit and win these matches. She’s not Novak, but Swiatek has all the tools necessary to be a wall. Trying to impose yourself on every swing is a fine goal, but in the short-term I think she makes some errors that she doesn’t need to. Something for her team and her to consider; for me I think Kessler almost wearing Noskova down means Swiatek could have done the same. Noskova has great offense but if you keep the ball central and hit with depth she’s not going to be able to create much. Hindsight is 20/20 and this has been a chaotic week, but I look at some of the players who’ve thrived on hardcourt in the past (Barty/Stephens/Svitolina/Wozniacki/Kenin) and it feels like the hyper-offensive approach isn’t really necessary in the early rounds.

I noticed Swiatek’s ball toss changed a little also and I think that’s a good sign. Working on the service motion to find something more natural is always a good plan. Overall it was a rough tournament in the scoresheets but Iga also made improvements and is getting more effective on hardcourt. The highlights are getting more frequent and the name is looming larger even if there are some mechanical and tactical issues to iron out.

Svitolina had a pretty good matchup against Golubic and won 6-2, 6-3. Golubic is a skillful baseliner who wins with consistency. She doesn’t really have a big serve, and Svitolina hits harder off both wings and is a wall so this was always going to be an uphill battle. Svitolina’s style feels like the ideal one to test Noskova’s legs. She hits a solid ball and trades power well, and she doesn’t really make many errors. Elina doesn’t have the biggest serve, but her first serve is tough to tee off on so the percentage against Noskova will matter. Before the last round I was thinking Svitolina had a good chance to go on a deep run here, so my thinking might be slightly clouded. With Swiatek struggling to win quickly and mostly offensive players in her draw, it felt like Svitolina could quietly grind through. I think she’ll lose in stretches when Noskova has control of rallies, but I think unforced errors will undo Noskova here eventually. Svitolina in 3.

Azarenka vs Yastremska

Azarenka had one of the best serving performances of the past few seasosn against Ostapenko. Jelena was outplayed soundly in the first set, but she got out to a big lead in the second, going up 5-2 at one point. From there Azarenka served her best and played her best, and ended up winning the set 7-5. The post-match interview was great and worth a listen, as Azarenka is actually willing to discuss tennis tactics and offer insights into her on-court decisions and off-court struggles. So many players have been media-coached to just say “I try to focus on my tennis” and not give anything away, so it’s nice to hear some actual substance in an interview.

Next for Azarenka is another powerful offense, and this one may be a bit more athletic and in better form. Yastremska and Navarro had an interesting duel, but Dayana’s power was a big difference-maker. When Yastremska got a full swing at a forehand, Navarro was basically scrambling for the rest of the point. Being able to just swing full and gain control/time is a huge advantage, and Navarro plays behind her forehand mainly so defending for a long time isn’t ideal. Navarro got an early break and served well to take the second, but Yastremska’s power is a big problem this week. In the past Yastremska’s losses have almost all been from unforced errors, but when she’s hitting the court like she is here in Melbourne it can be overwhelming. Azarenka goes from one overwhelming offensive test to another, so this should have some momentum swings.

If we’re to believe what we saw last round, Azarenka is going to serve well here. That is a huge boost for a player who already can outduel most opponents from the baseline. The one thing I see unravelling Azarenka is players who hit harder than her and can hang in long rallies, but I’m not 100% that Yastremska can keep her unforced error count down when dealing with Aza’s ability to spread the ball around the court and keep it low over the net. This will be the first big test of Yastremska’s mettle, and I disagree with the -300 pricetag attached to Azarenka but I do think she’s displayed a level last round that can win again. Azarenka in 2-3. I’m aware it’s a copout to not be specific about the # of sets but this match is really a question of how long Yastremska can fire away and that’s more of a question mark than a definable thing.

Paolini vs Kalinskaya

This is a puzzling one. Kalinskaya is winning the high profile section of this draw, but Paolini is winning easily. Kalinskaya and Stephens played the match of the third round. I’m not exagerrating. Their first set was some of the best tennis I’ve seen in a while. They both constantly hit the court, every shot was hit with pace, they both deftly saved break points, and no one shied away from playing offense. The second set was a runaway for Kalinskaya, but Sloane dug back in in the third and it really could have gone to either player. They traded a few early early breaks, but in the end Kalinskaya was the more consistent player. Her game is easily repeatable because she isn’t really going for a lot. Stephens plays with more power and variety, so despite being the player in control a little more often, she had tougher decisions on big points and a single rough service game ended up costing her the match. Nobody deserved to lose this one, and I’m excited/hopeful that the good Stephens shows up in Roland Garros also.

Paolini won their previous meeting 2,3 and she beat Blinkova in straight sets after she had beaten Rybakina. It is really hard to write Paolini off here. To me, Kalinskaya is the harder hitter and that should matter, but Paolini moves the ball so well and she’s extremely fast. It’s a little like watching Schwartzman where she gradually pulls her opponent into her style of play. I’m expecting another very close match here. Kalinskaya didnt miss much against Stephens, and Paolini is an above-average baseliner. Kalinskaya is probably the better server but there’s not a big aspect to point to in Kalinskaya’s game to set her apart here. Points will (as in the Stephens match) be hard to come by. Sort of expecting the seed to get through. Paolini in 3.

Zheng vs Dodin

Oof. Two oof matches set up this high-octane clash. THERE WILL BE SO MUCH OCTANE. Tbh I don’t even know what octane is but that show Arcane on Netflix was ok. Or the animation was cool. Idk. Go Broncos. Zheng played three sets with Wang, and she ended up winning behind her serve. The third set never felt like it was safe for her, and I think had she trailed in the tiebreaker she would have lost. Having a slight lead let her swing freely, and her serve notched some easy points which was the big difference. Wang still had some shots to gain control, but alternating between push-mode and offense can be tough and lead to “OH NO” reactions when you feel you’ve made the wrong choice. Thinking you’ve made an incorrect big moment error can compound when you get another opportunity, and Wang did struggle to execute somewhat at the end of the match. It was a great run for her, and I would say she played better than Zheng as far as their individual levels.

Next for Zheng is Dodin, who wore down Burel almost immediately. When Dodin gets a full swing, she crushes the ball. Burel isn’t really fast enough to run it down, but I thought she’d keep Dodin moving. When you push Dodin around a little, she still rips it, but she misses more. Force her to the angles and hit solid, and you can win. Burel just went completely passive in this one though, hoping the errors would flow. She sliced her backhand constantly, and they sat up a bit too much. A low slice can undo a tall player’s mechanics but here it just let Dodin get her footwork right and get a full swing. Burel broke back a bunch in the second but her serve disappeared in a major way and she was scared to miss. Tough L, but there were a lot of tough losses in the last round and Burel making a third round at a major is a good sign. Zheng’s offense should get her through again, but it’s hard to say it’ll be simple at this point. She got pretty tight on her groundstrokes against Wang, and she feels in that Swiatek range right now where she’s alternating between highlights and lowlights with no solid stretch of either. Seeing random errors inspires opponents, and Dodin is running hot right now. Dodin is also serving great, and has been a solid frontrunner.

Zheng won their two previous meetings (on clay), but Dodin won in three on hardcourt in 2020. It’s a long-distance data point, but Zheng hasn’t been automatic this week. I still think she wins because her offense will force some errors from Dodin, but the lack of confidence and the errors will add a bit of chaos. Zheng in 2-3.

Kostyuk vs Timofeeva

Kostyuk looked exhausted in the first set against Avanesyan, but I guess she’s just very expressive on the court. She managed to come back and it makes sense because she’s in good form and has a great deal more power than Avanesyan and a much better serve. I really think she’s in trouble again here though, as Timofeeva has upended expectations. The win against Wozniacki was excellent, but she started off rough so I thought Haddad Maia might be too solid. Timofeeva was ready from 0-0 though, and honestly she’s really consistent in a rhythm so I don’t think Kostyuk is automatic here. Marta can get upset, and Timofeeva is very composed out there (except for the sarcastic box-talk, which is not ideal but doesn’t seem to affect her shot selection). Timofeeva has a slightly better backhand cross, and the way Avanesyan was able to frustrate Kostyuk with her defending feels very similar to how Timofeeva outlasted Wozniacki. The difference here is that Timofeeva can hit some decent serves, and she plays a bit more aggressively when she has opportunities. It’s possible that Kostyuk outlasts her in a long one, but I think Timofeeva is a little bit better. Someone (Timofeeva) in 3.

Frech vs Gauff

Zakharova had it against Frech, but it didn’t happen. Late in the match Zakharova had 0-40 on Frech’s serve, and I was very impressed by how Frech’s expression didn’t change. She didn’t alter her play either. She proceeded to play 3 perfectly composed points of tennis, including some aggressive winners at the end of long points. Zakharova reacted pretty heavily after missing some shots late in this one, and that didn’t necessarily cost her the match but the difference in stability between the two players was clear. Zakharova was the better player but Frech’s experience came up big in this one.

Can Frech out-last Gauff? So far she’s been really adept at weathering the storm and staying within her own means. She’s solid off both wings and she serves moderately well. Gauff had a pretty easy match against Parks, so she’ll be feeling good heading into this one. Parks swings for the fences, and it just didn’t land against Gauff. Plan B is to be angry and swing for the fences, so it was a quick exit for a phenomenal talent. I think Frech can capitalize on the unforced errors from Gauff, but I don’t see how she can score. Gauff played a finals recently against Svitolina which I think will be similar to this. Not in terms of scoreline, but in terms of inevitability. If Frech is up a break, it feels like there can be a lot of tennis left in that set. With Gauff up a break, it feels like she might donate it back but she’s not in any danger. Gauff is not automatic yet by any means but I think Frech will have to play the match of a lifetime to win here and get some help from Cori. I don’t think it’s coming. Zakharova’s backhand power was able to trouble Frech and Gauff hits harder on the backhand wing. Gauff in 2.

Andreeva vs Krejcikova

Surprising match for Parry and Andreeva. I don’t think anyone expected Parry to win the first set 6-1 after the beatdown Andreeva gave Jabeur. Parry was able to really trouble Andreeva with the slice, and when she hit hard on her forehand she had a pretty clear edge. Parry got rolled in the second, but she’s a pretty streaky player so some letoff was natural after the first set. Andreeva also dug in on defense and her best attribute is really just extending rallies and playing error free tennis. At the end of these long rallies, she’s proven able to find good shots down the line which aren’t the hardest hit but are well located. She also has pretty solid dropshots and mixes up her play well. In the third, Parry’s slice kept bothering Andreeva. She got to a 5-1 lead and the match looked over. Unfortunately, it mirrored the Swiatek Collins comeback from there. Andreeva stepped up her game a bit (obviously you’re going to avoid errors as much as you can facing the final game), and Parry started to visibly react to points against her. She still had the lead, but her expression and reactions were those of somebody who felt like they’d lost something.

It’s dangerous in sport when “omg I’m gonna win” creeps in. It’s easy to still be on court and get excited and start thinking about how great it’s going to be. It’s natural to have these thoughts, but when they come you need to take a deep breath and focus back on the moment. On court “why don’t you shut up and just see what happens” is a help for me at times late in matches or in tense moments, simply because expectations can lead to trouble in either direction. If the match takes a turn and you were hyped about possibly winning, it’s natural to feel like you’re losing something, that something is being taken away from you. So we react with the same expression and stability that a toddler does when you take away literally any object from them.

It was a hard loss to watch for Parry, because she also got a bit dug in tactically to things that were working more in sparing use. She started to slice her backhand almost exclusively, and while that worked earlier, it was more about keeping Andreeva off balance so Parry could find a forehand. Andreeva made some errors off the slices early in the third, but you can’t expect a good junior player to make too many technical errors because they’ve just spent 12+ years drilling their swings, and the junior levels tend to be full of extended baseline rallies and moonballs so most young players arrive in the pros with their technical skills really sharp. There’s nothing wrong with Parry’s game, but I think she got a bit into a “please miss” mindset and Andreeva took advantage.

One key tactic for Mirra at the end of the third was screaming. I roll my eyes at the fake every point fist-pumping to the box, but emoting in a positive way in a big moment can really shift momentum, and sometimes letting off a bit of energy is a good way to free yourself up. I know if I’m in a close match and the opponent takes the lead late and screams loudly for the first time all match, I am low-key annoyed and taken out of my rhythm a little bit because now I want revenge, now I want them to be wrong, now I need to win so they don’t get to celebrate or talk shit. Andreeva roared after a number of big points and by the time she was a game behind in the scoreline, it already felt like she was the favorite.

Krejcikova is an interesting opponent here because 3 rounds ago there is no way she could have won this match, nor would she be expected to. Andreeva came in hot, but she has had some struggle moments in the last round against a player with power, and that was her undoing against Gauff last year. Krejcikova is not interested in the lines or being confined to hitting just the court, but she does hit a heavy ball and she can get in a good rhythm. Andreeva’s level against Jabeur wins this in two, but she only hit that level late in the third against Parry so any letdown may give Krej a chance. Krejcikova is a sleeper because her top level hasn’t been seen in a while, but you know it’s still in there somewhere. Andreeva in 2 if she plays well, but if there are lapses this could be another 3 set marathon. Andreeva in 2 or Krejcikova in 3.

Anisimova vs Sabalenka

Badosa and Anisimova played some good tennis and it’s nice to see them back. Unfortunately, Badosa’s technique broke down as the match went on. She still played well but Anisimova’s power just made it tough for her to redirect shots. Anisimova plays really lovely tennis. Once she gets her opponent running she’s able to come up with the next offensive shot and she hits with full commitment to the technique which sends the ball zipping through the court. Staying down on the shot, proper footwork, commitment to the technique rather than swinging as fast as you can, these are things that really pay off for Amanda.

I don’t know if Anisimova’s game matters against Sabalenka. This feels like a spot where both players will have a tough time playing defense, but Sabalenka is seemingly in a different tier. Anisimova owns the h2h 4-1, but 4 of those matches were on clay (Sabalenka winning the most recent one in three) and their lone hardcourt match was in 2019, when Aryna was refusing to be bound by the laws of physics and was exploring the possibility that the ball could be served into the net and still make it through. She abandoned her experiment, and now she is zipping people. Tsurenko can give up at times, but 6-0, 6-0 is a scoreline you just don’t see in professional tennis very often. Anisimova will likely be much more competitive, but she’s just coming back from injury and it would be expected that Sabalenka is just a bit sharper overall. Looking forward to short points and no defense. Sabalenka in 2-3.