2024 Australian Open Women's Finals

Zheng vs Sabalenka

The Australian Open looks like it is getting a repeat champion. Aryna Sabalenka shook up the tennis world last year by winning the AO against Elena Rybakina. She has always been a tremendous player, but inconsistency in her level of play have always been a reason to doubt her. The Australian Open title was a huge result, especially considering Rybakina was considered the favorite going in. As she ran through the draw at the 2023 US Open, it started to become possible that she was going to take over the tour. In the finals though, unforced errors and a drop in level returned. She blitzed Gauff in the first set, but just couldn’t maintain the level against Coco’s defense. That made this week’s semifinals against Gauff a huge question mark for Aryna, even with her level seeming to reach a new peak. Sabalenka hits big enough to take the racquet out of anyone’s hands, but Gauff’s speed and ability to defend to the corners is some of the best seen on tour since Osaka. Any match where you’re aware your opponent is trying to outlast you will lead to some tension, and with two unproven players in the other semifinals this match took on even more importance.

In the first set, Sabalenka got off to her usual start. Gauff has changed her service motion a bit and hits some great deliveries, but the net still gets in the way a good chunk of the time. It doesn’t guarantee that she’ll lose, but Gauff is visibly rattled by double faults and struggles on serve. When she first got on tour and made a big run at Wimbledon, her serving was the bright point of her game, so it’s likely she figures it out. As athletes grow and add muscle over the course of their career, it’s natural that their technique will sometimes need adjustment. Luckily, Gauff has her power and defense to rely on. With Sabalenka up 5-2 in the first, it felt a lot like last year. Whether Sabalenka’s level would dip in the second set again was the big looming question, but she put that question to rest quickly by dropping her level before the match even got there. Unforced errors flowed, and Gauff proceeded to win 4 games in a row. Gauff ended up serving at 30-0 6-5, but Sabalenka luckily won a few big points and sent the set to a tiebreaker.

Tiebreakers never really feel like they’re fair to the loser, but Sabalenka played well and zoomed to a 6-1 start. The whole second half of the first set felt like a spot where Sabalenka could easily implode, but she hung in admirably. It felt, honestly, like there would be a letdown in the second and Gauff would get to a decider, but it just never came. There were no breaks of serve until 4-4, and it was Sabalenka who took it on her fifth break point of the set (she faced 0). It was the best complete match of tennis I think I’ve seen Sabalenka play. Her forehand has incredible timing right now, but her backhand technique is so clean. Gauff had to guess early on a number of short balls, and Sabalenka has been pretty solid on serve (76% first serve) so this was a match that was won rather than conceded.

Zheng will have the difficult task of trying to slow Sabalenka’s offense, but it’s probably better for her to just focus on her own offense. Yastremska and Zheng was pretty close, and they traded a number of breaks. Zheng served at just 55% which is pretty much what we can expect in the finals. That number is a bit deceiving because her second serve delivery is better than most, but it’s still opening the door for Sabalenka to put a lot of balls in play. Zheng and Yastremska could probably have gone to a third, but Zheng was a little better at putting the extra ball in play in long rallies. She had a few easy service games which gave her a big boost, and her defense on the run to the corners was there on a few big points. It was a great win, but not the same level of tennis as Sabalenka and Gauff were playing.

This is a tremendous result for Zheng. For her to beat Sabalenka though, she needs to raise her serve percentage. Without scoreboard pressure, Sabalenka plays too well. Even with it, I wonder if Zheng’s footspeed isn’t just a bit too slow to really defend. Like Rybakina, she trades power very well and has great technique on both wings, but I haven’t really seen Sabalenka getting rattled just because the ball is coming back, and her casual relationship with her box seems very useful for getting her out of her own head during the match. This should be a really entertaining contest with tons of highlight points, but it feels like Sabalenka winning the semifinals in straights will really free her up. Gauff was the pressure-filled match whose outcome would drive media stories and change the texture of the narrative on tour. Getting through that means Aryna is in a sense freerolling, and breathing a sigh of relief and getting to play and enjoy one more match can produce some really good performances. Sabalenka in 2.