2024 Australian Open Men's & Women's Quarterfinals Day 2
ATP Singles
Hurkacz vs Medvedev
Watching Hurkacz play I felt like he had a good shot against whoever he played this round. Watching Medvedev play I felt like he had left muffins in the oven and was trying to get back to them as soon as possible. It isn’t necessary for Medvedev to go all out every round, but his level of ballstriking against Borges seemed a bit more passive than usual. Along with this came some issues with his ball toss on second serves. The ball was getting a bit too far in front of him for how hard he was swinging, and Nuno got the benefit of a bunch of double faults. Down a set and a break, Borges seemed sunk. From there, Medvedev struggled for a while. He seemed to get upset that the match was taking so long, and despite winning in a tiebreaker in the second and going up 5-2 in the third, he didn’t focus enough to close out. Borges won the next 5 games in a row while Medvedev rushed through his service games and gave the crowd what they wanted.
Declaring Hurkacz to be the victor here gets tricky because of what Daniil did in the fourth set. He got his first serve percentage up to 78, he won 93% of first serve points, and he broke Borges twice in a 24 minute 6-1 set. That ability to raise his level means that Hurkacz can’t depend on Medvedev showing up in middling form again. The speed of the courts though and Hurkacz’s serving mean that he’s got a good chance of tiebreakers at minimum here. Arthur Cazaux had beaten Rune and Griekspoor coming into the 4th round and he was beaten in straight sets. Hurkacz was unplayable on serve for most of the match (broken once) and returned well again. These courts are good for him and he’s playing well, and now he has an opponent who has to raise their level to avoid the loss. It puts all the pressure on Medvedev, and since he’s been moderately grumpy to start the event, I think there’s a good chance for Hurkacz to win.
Working Medvedev’s favor is what a good deep returner her is. It’s really hard to deal with Hurkacz delivery and he does come to net well, but Medvedev has practice against some of the best servers on tour and his height and reach give him a better chance of making an impact in return games. I do see Hurkacz making some unforced errors on the backhand wing when he’s trapped in neutral rallies, so Medvedev will want to make this into a backhand exchange as often as possible. If we get a big upgrade in focus from Medvedev, I can see this going to him in 5, but Hurkacz has won their last three meetings (one on grass) and he’s playing well enough to win. Hurkacz in 4.
Alcaraz vs Zverev
This is sort of becoming a rivalry, but it doesn’t feel like one. Alcaraz’s accomplishments are so recent and his rise has been so meteoric that he just seems like he’s in another tier. Zverev won their last meeting, but it was an indoor event where he tends to thrive (The World Tour Finals). Alcaraz also played some pretty rough hardcourt tennis at times in the second half of last year, so a win against him didn’t carry the same weight it might usually. When they played at the US Open last year, Alcaraz won in straight sets. That’s honestly what I’m expecting here, despite Zverev matching up well with Carlos. Zverev’s struggles to win matches he’s expected to are still there because he plays somewhat passively, but when good players are trying to execute their offense against him, he’s able to hang. His serve is world-class and he’s doing well with it this week, and his backhand is probably a little better than Carlos’ in terms of consistency and power. Zverev is a tall person, but he moves really well to dropshots, so he can be effective here.
What I expect from Carlos’ team is to have him isolate Zverev’s forehand. It won’t automatically yield results, but if he makes it clear that he expects Zverev’s forehand to break down, it will. In the time surrounding that, it is fortuitous for Alcaraz that he’s great at tennis. He’s been zipping through the draw, and Kecmanovic was slated to be an annoying baseline test for him but basically got the business from start to finish. The good Alcaraz can challenge for any major, and it is exciting to have him here. Given Zverev’s 5 setter with Norrie, I think he is not exactly ready to beat Alcaraz from the baseline, but his serving can go a long way here so I think most sets will be decided by a single break. Zverev has always underachieved a bit which is lamentable, but it does mean that he has the talent/ability to compete at this level. It makes for a good villain, and Alcaraz loves good competition so we should get the best from him here. Alcaraz in 3-4.
WTA Singles
Noskova vs Yastremska
If you had this quarterfinals in your draw, you win the prize. That prize? A year’s supply of waffles if I ever happen to own a waffle superclub. Try our brown sugar blueberry cinnamon waffles, maybe, or our Paireberry pancakes. Noskova is definitely a more likely candidate than Yastremska to make a big run at a major, but they both have played incredible tennis to get here. Noskova beat the #1 in Iga Swiatek, and got the benefit of a withdrawal from Elina Svitolina. Svito appeared to injure her back in the match, and hopefully it’s nothing major. For now, it’s a huge bonus for Noskova because despite being 2 sets, Yastremska’s match with Azarenka was a marathon. A two hour and ten minute battle that saw multiple lead changes in both sets was a great showing from Yastremska, but extra tennis is always some amount of wear and tear once you reach the second week.
At this point, the lesson has been learned: Yastremska can hit pretty much anyone off the court. The offense does not appear to run out, and the winners are outnumbering the unforced errors (by 1, 38/37). When two big hitters play, it’s usually evident early in the match who’s going to get the better of the exchanges. In this one, I think it won’t. Either one with time or inside the baseline becomes quickly unplayable, and they both make errors when they’re rushed on a shot because they’re pretty intent on sending it back with interest. Over time, I think Noskova is a better server, and she has a bit more variety in her game. It’s odd, I think some of the Noskova faith is coming from the Swiatek win despite her not being the most dominant hardcourt player. Yastremska winning here would not really be such a huge outlier, but Noskova has played 8 sets while Yastremska has played 18. Noskova has a slightly higher ceiling I think. Noskova in 3.
Zheng vs Kalinskaya
Zheng might be in a slight bit of trouble here based off her previous matches. Her fourth round against Dodin went smooth, but she only landed 44% of first serves. Zheng is a tremendous baseliner, but not having her serve together makes her a much closer prospect with Kalinskaya. Kalinskaya has outdueled everyone she’s played so far by staying aggressive in backhand rallies and keeping her forehand moving. It’s a simple formula, but when she’s consistent it takes a lot of hitting to score a point and there’s a short list of players who can do that for two straight sets. I don’t think Zheng will suddenly be consistent, and Kalinskaya won their previous meeting in three so she won’t lack confidence in this match. If Zheng does win, I’d imagine it’ll take her three sets. Kalinskaya beating Paolini isn’t the hugest name but it was a higher level affair than Dodin or Wang Yafan, so I think this has potential to be very close.
If Zheng serves above 55%, she probably wins in three. It’s a random number, but it just feels like she gets so many free points off her first serve that it’ll give her an edge against Kalinskaya. If not, I think Kalinskaya wins and that is what I’m leaning towards. Zheng’s highs are better than Kalinskaya’s, but Kalinskaya’s level stays way steadier throughout the match and she’ll win the stretches where Zheng struggles for confidence. Leaning into the upset here and closing my eyes while I watch. Kalinskaya in 3.