2024 Australian Open Men's & Women's Quarterfinals Day 1

WTA Singles

Kostyuk vs Gauff

Ripped Kostyuk is different. Marta has gradually been improving her results over the past months, but here in Australia it looks like she’s literally carrying 0 extra weight. It is paying off. Against Avanesyan I thought she looked gassed early in the first, but she finished strong. I felt she’d have trouble with Timofeeva’s rally tolerance and power, but she didn’t lapse for a single moment. It’s a very welcome change for a phenom to put in the physical work in the gym to make big results possible. She’s had a somewhat lucky draw here, but honestly it’s been a tougher road than Gauff so we can overlook that for now.

Timofeeva played well against Kostyuk, but the power differential was on display from 0-0. Kostyuk outhit the junior standout, and her forehand was spread down the line very well. Kostyuk had more variety in her game, and her focus was on the court the entire time. Good result for Timo, but Kostyuk is just at a higher level here and never made the errors that could make the match close. Against Gauff, Kostyuk’s power might not yield as many points. I don’t think it’s entirely out of the question for Kostyuk to do well here, but her patience will be tested. Gauff is really fast and puts the extra ball back quite often. She also hits much harder than Timofeeva, so Kostyuk’s defense and timing will be tested. Gauff’s random service game donations are generally her undoing, but there is no guarantee that those appear. Their previous meeting was in Adelaide (similar conditions) in 2022 and Gauff won in 3 close sets. She’s better than she was then, but Kostyuk is also. I’d say they’ve made similar progress in their tennis, despite Gauff’s results being worlds better than Marta’s.

The odds point to a blowout, but I’m not so sure. Frech doesn’t have the weight of shot that Kostyuk has. Parks doesn’t have any rally tolerance. Dolehide is a great server prone to unforced errors and impatience, and Schmiedlova is a defensive baseliner with no serve. It’s been a safe route here for Gauff, so forgive me if I think this is the first real look at how she’ll fare against Sabalenka. I do think that she can win, because Avanesyan gave Kostyuk a lot of trouble and Gauff is a more powerful version of that, but Kostyuk’s confidence and focus mean that if she does get a look at a 2-0/3-0 situation in a set she’ll likely get to overtime or close out. To call for a Kostyuk win though just feels wrong. This is a great run, but she’s been beating baseliners with less power. Beating Coco here would be the win of her career. Gauff in 2-3 entertaining sets.

Krejickova vs Sabalenka

This result (on paper) would seem huge for Krejcikova’s confidence. Until last round though, she was really only beating players she had giant advantages over. Hontama, Korpatsch, and Hunter all hit with less power than Krejcikova, and haven’t had anywhere near the success that she has. Andreeva though? This solidified Krejcikova getting her groove back for at least a few months. Andreeva hasn’t enjoyed the highlights and titles that Krejcikova has on tour, but she’s got all the hype in the world behind her right now. The hot hand on tour is always someone players want to beat, and even if you crash out in an early round, having a win against someone well-regarded can keep your belief going for a while. Knowing that you can compete at that next level might seem like it should be a given for Krej, but she’s struggled with confidence in the past. Prior to winning Roland Garros, she had considered retiring from singles play, and it’s been clear over the past year that she’s not really sure of herself, as errors have pretty much cost her every match she’s played.

Here I don’t think Krejcikova really has a chance, but she’s freerolling. Beating Andreeva (who’d beaten her their previous match) and making the quarters mean that Krejcikova can breathe. It’s abstract, but the “am I good enough?” thoughts fade when you get a win like that. Sometimes players crash out after a big win because they’re so excited, but for a veteran, it generally opens up their game a bit. Krejcikova trades power very well, and playing so much tennis this week has her in decent form. Now for the bad news. Sabalenka is the bad news. Anisimova was her first opportunity to struggle on defense, and it didn’t happen. Sabalenka has been dominant, and she has won quickly. She also has won the last 3 matches against Krejcikova.

For the fluff of it, let’s add more good news. These two played 4 times in 2023 somehow, and Krejcikova won 3 out of the 10 sets (including winning in Dubai in 3). That’s not great, but it means she’s very familiar with Sabalenka’s game, and Sabalenka knows this is not an easy game. Raising those questions in an opponent’s mind is important, especially since Aryna is in such absurdly good form. Honestly, her forehand has improved. It was a bit of a mace swing before, if that makes sense. I’m not going to explain it well technically and the swing was lovely, but it was clear that a slight timing error or adjustment could result in an error. Here she’s been much smoother with it, and she’s moving her body in a fluid motion with it as well. A smaller swing has resulted in quicker power and it’s making the shot harder to read. Krejcikova is a sleeper here to snag a set, but I think her unforced errors will abound here. Andreeva is very consistent, but she’s not going to rush you or hit through you. It was a safe zone for Krejcikova to work her offense and eventually it paid off. Against Sabalenka, Krejcikova will be pressured a lot more and since she struggles with her length and confidence the errors could pile up. Sabalenka will want to stay in the forehand exchanges as much as possible here, but Krejcikova takes a big swing with her backhand so if she can go there with pace she might rush her. Sabalenka in 2, but the momentum/mental state of the players from game to game could send this in a very wide range of outcomes.

ATP Singles

Djokovic vs Fritz

Up 6-0, 2-0 against Adrian Mannarino, Novak Djokovic began yelling at his box. Yes he was zipping one of the best second tier players on tour, but NO THE GAMES WERE TAKING TOO LONG. The umpire said “duece” and Djokovic became incensed. WHAT IS THIS DUECE? THE GAME IS OVER! It is interesting to see a player completely dominate a match in a manner that ensures the outcome, and still be a bit stressed. I’m exaggerating how upset he was, but he did not look happy with his box at all in this match. The story here is the reason Djokovic is so hard to beat in the second week of majors. When he plays the lower level talents, they get zero done against him (in this case literally). Mannarino would have kept anyone else on the draw on the court for a few hours, but Djokovic’s comprehensive skill just made it impossible for Adrian to score. Having these matches be a foregone conclusion and breezing through them means he’s through to the quarterfinals and hasn’t really had to go to the next gear yet. He’s fresh, and that’s a problem for Fritz.

Taylor Fritz is 0-8 against Djokovic. Only one of those matches saw him win a set, and that was the 2021 Australian Open where Djokovic tore his abdominal muscles mid-match. He appeared to be unable to swing or move for the sets he lost in that one, and I am still unsure how he won the 5th. The match was paused after the 4th for the curfew to be enforced, and Djokovic went off-court. When he came back, he was able to play tennis again. Since an ab tear is internal, I’m not sure what treatment is really possible, but maybe some painkillers finally kicked in. Still one of the strangest matches I’ve seen on tour, but not a real data point when considering this matchup.

Fritz played solid the last few rounds after an early hiccough against Diaz Acosta, but everything good he does gets negated against Djokovic. He serves well, but Djokovic gets a read on it after a few games and puts returns at Fritz’s feet. After a few of those, Djokovic starts landing angles on the returns once Taylor is frozen. It becomes a visibly uphill battle very quickly, and despite Fritz playing his best, when he tries to ratchet up the pace from the baseline he tends to loses accuracy. His forehand starts to fly long, and his backhand can find the net when he hits a bit harder. The forehand is just from trying to infuse more RPMs, and the backhand is because he swings a little bit further towards his body than full extension. It means when he amps up the power, he’s using more arm and less physics, and when you clench a bit harder with your muscles it’s easy to overdo it which makes you snatch at the ball a little. This is all pretty critical for a guy who’s playing solid tennis right now, but we’re comparing him to Djokovic here who has near perfect mechanics for his body type and gets more power than his opponents without ever swinging as hard.

Djokovic’s wrist issue might still be there, but it’s not affecting his play. Maybe Fritz hitting a heavier ball will bring this out, but that’s a lofty hope. Djokovic’s color did look a bit off in this match and his temperament was perhaps the one of someone who’s trying to get off court as fast as possible because he doesn’t feel great, but the fact that he did it makes me feel like his illness is not likely to cause any major issues. Overall, I expect Djokovic to be a break better in each set, and for the match to slowly feel like an inevitable march towards doom for Taylor. He’s been solid this week, so hopefully he digs in and competes if things go poorly rather than narrating to his box. In the past he’s sort of argued with reality in tough spots rather than taking a deep breath and fighting back, but maybe he’s different now. Go Fritz! Djokovic in 3.

Sinner vs Rublev

Jannik was a huge favorite against Khachanov, and he won in straight sets. If you look at the scoreline, it looks like he won as expected. If you watched the match though, it wasn’t really smooth sailing. At one point in the second set Khachanov was 1/10 on break points, with Sinner 2/2. Jannik was very clutch here, but he wasn’t serving so well in the first two sets and Khachanov’s power seemed to have a slight effect on Sinner. Sinner decelerated on some backhands, and it did seem like he was trying not to make a mistake. I’m not sure if that was the gameplan, but one piece of that plan was to hit his backhand to Khachanov’s forehand as often as possible. This worked over time because Khachanov forced the game back to Sinner’s forehand and Jannik is really deadly with a forehand and time. Khachanov really can’t score on Jannik if he doesn’t miss, so the plan may have just been to keep errors low and wait for the breaks to present themselves. It was a bit different from previous rounds though where Sinner seemed unbeatable, so the match against Rublev might be very good.

Rublev won a four hour and fifteen minute marathon against Alex De Minaur, a match in which he came back from two sets down, but won the 5th by a decisive score of 6-0. Rublev has a ton of power from the baseline, and he never stops swinging even if he’s exhausted. Him and Sinner is the perfect pairing. They both can come up with low angles and rips down the line on their forehand from anywhere, and their backhands are perfectly solid. Rublev might have the better first serve, but his second can be an issue. I also think that while Rublev has good serving stats for the last season, he goes with power over variety and this means a good returner like Sinner will put a lot of balls in play. No huge issue because Rublev is so solid from the baseline, but pressure on your serve in a long match can be frustrating, and Rublev is not exactly Thich Nhat Hanh out there.

For me, Sinner’s speed should be the difference here. They are very similar players in terms of level and RPMs and service ability and all that, but if they run lateral ball drills Sinner will always recover to center faster than Rublev. He’s also a bit more aggressive at coming to net which might get him some cheap points. There’s a lot of hype surrounding Sinner right now which seemed partially responsible for him not playing freely against Khachanov, but here there is no safety blanket. If Jannik doesn’t come out firing, Rublev will take the lead reliably enough that Sinner will have to find his next gear no matter what. This promises to be an amazing match, and I think Sinner will be just a little bit better defensively. Sinner in 4-5.