2024 Australian Open Men's Semifinals

Djokovic vs Sinner

This is probably going to be the most interesting match we see for a few months. Novak Djokovic is statistically the greatest of all time. He has won so many majors that the only thing that seems to enter into the “that would be cool” conversation for him is a Calendar Slam. This is stop one on that journey. The Australian Open is the tournament where Novak has been the most dominant, and he is playing a familiar opponent. Jannik Sinner and Djokovic just exchanged victories at the World Tour Finals a month or so ago, with Sinner’s win in the group stages serving as the big excitement for the tournament. He would end up losing to Djokovic in the finals, but just seeing the ball go through the hoop can be big for a younger player. Seeing the top ranks fall can inspire others in your generation, and tennis overall needs the occasional upset to spice things up.

What was great about the format at the WTF was that we knew Djokovic would be fired up for the rematch. Sinner succumbed a bit to fatigue (not Novak’s fault but still a factor) but seeing Djokovic organically motivated by strong competition makes for really good tennis. The other good thing about it is that Sinner got the runback out of the way. When you score a big win, that player has all the motivation to work hard and reverse that result. It makes it really difficult the next time you play them, and though we try to pretend we have no egos, the “well good for him and this is okay because I got that other win” thoughts do pop up to console us into our loss. Were it not for that finals result, I would think Djokovic would be more of a lock here. As it stands, I think this is going to have a lot of close games.

If Sinner can win here, it would drastically change the optics of the availability of major titles on tour. Alcaraz has sort of broken through, but this would make a lot of people’s belief start to grow. That belief doesn’t mean anything as far as actually being able to beat Djokovic, but it will raise the level of several contenders and possibly make them more competitive. It would be a good thing. On the flip side of a Sinner win is the Djokovic Calendar Slam. It isn’t a pronounced goal, but with every puzzle piece he adds this season it would increase the excitement about the US Open. It’s rare that the favorite winning can actually make things more exciting, so this is really a win-win for tennis.

As far as tennis, I think this is allegedly the most vulnerable Djokovic has been in a while. Every major, Djokovic seems to have some minor malady or issue, and I fall for it quite often. “If his abs are torn, he can’t win” “if his neck is bad, he can’t serve” etc etc. Realistically, we don’t get fully accurate information on his health nor his ability because teams just don’t gain anything by divulging that. It would help opponents too much to know how to approach a match, so while Djokovic is dealing with an illness here and wrist issues it’s not really a definable factor. I will say that Novak has seemed a bit human at times this week. He was only 4/21 on break points against Fritz, a guy he generally can break at will. He still won, and his ability to maintain and elevate his level as a match progresses is another reason his issues are not generally a huge factor. Djokovic is levels above these guys (which means a slight injury or issue can be there, but it doesn’t move him down to a level they can beat anyway), and has a complete game. I don’t issue complete game titles very often, because for a pro sport tennis has a lot of guys who have tactics/entire swings missing. Djokovic can do anything, and his execution and focus are world class. It means you have to play a similar level to win, and that’s why Sinner is still a slight underdog here.

Jannik has not dropped a set yet, and he’s just gone through two of the biggest gatekeepers on tour (I mean that term as praise; consistently making the late rounds of majors is an unreal knock to have on your game). Beating Khachanov and Rublev in straight sets might make sense, but the thing that’s impressing me about Sinner is how many of those sets he probably should have dropped. When he’s in a bad situation, his game doesn’t deviate at all. If anything, his serving on break points has been a bit better than average. His best attribute to me has been the clean hitting. The ball is making a beautiful sound off his racquet, and he’s seeing it big. When his opponent runs the wrong way or he has a setup at net, he’s still putting pace onto the ball rather than rolling it in. This might lead people to worry, but when you’re really in good form, you’re putting extra oomph into these shots because you know you’re going to make them, not because you’re scared to miss and hoping the point is over. Sinner is as good as we’ve seen him, and it’s time for us again to get a look at his physical stamina.

The one place Djokovic has tended to beat his younger counterparts is on stamina. It’s not a mystery why. Djokovic eats really healthy, does yoga to avoid injury and strengthen his joints, and has been training hard and playing marathon tennis for the last lifetime. The cumulative build of exercise and diet goes beyond what they advertise as their initial rewards. Having stronger joints and more flexibility from yoga is great, but it also prevents fatigue because when every part of your body is able to help out, there’s less stress/workload on each individual part. It just feels like Djokovic goes a bit beyond what others do (felt the same with Nadal) and catching up involves more than 1 year of similar work. If I go to the gym for 1 year and you go for 5, we may look the same at the end of the year, but you’re able to do more and for longer periods. I’m overexplaining and 3/5 tennis is not an untenable thing, but the depth of muscle memory Djokovic has on every shot in every situation in every tournament and in every phase of physical freshness and fatigue is a huge boost. Even if you can physically go the distance, you also need to maintain a high level or you lose sets.

Sinner getting here relatively fresh is a boost. He had a blip against Rublev where he looked uncomfortable, but he indicated that this was gas in the post-match interview. The humidity is a little above average in Melbourne for match time, and even though the temperates are not scorching it’s still pretty hot out there. I think Djokovic actually would prefer a night match, because in the cooler conditions it’s harder to hit through him, but the chances of Sinner gassing out are higher during the day.

It’s funny to be putting so much focus on fatigue because it gets me to the point of this article : I don’t think there is a lot to separate them in terms of tennis. Sinner has become one of the best returners on tour. He trades power and pace better than anyone out there. Djokovic does these things of course (best returner who’s ever played), but it can be a bit frustrating to play yourself. Novak is a better server, but Sinner is starting to really show improvement in this department. It’s nearly impossible to hit through Djokovic, but Sinner has the best shot of that of anyone on tour. Basically, I think this is the one spot in the tournament that Djokovic has a real chance of losing. It’s the usual “Djokovic steps up a level and it’s clear he’s going to win the title” spot, but I’m happy just to have Sinner’s career progressing enough to raise the question. The tour is in a good place and this year already has a million storylines to follow regardless of the outcome here.

It sometimes feels like a “when” situation when we question if our perennial champions will lose, but Djokovic is not into that territory yet at all. Sinner is just actually playing that good, and I think he has a good chance to snag Djokovic here when he’s not exactly his best automatic self. Sinner in 4, or Djokovic in 5. I do not see a quick path to the finish line here for Novak, and this is probably one of the best challenges he’s had in a while. Hopefully they both rise to the occasion.

Zverev vs Medvedev

I knew we were in trouble as soon as I saw ponytail Zverev. Zverev’s major issue is common in the world. He gives a lot of attention to the idea he carries of himself. You can call it ego or march out any spiritual poem you want, but the man is encumbered by thoughts about himself. This is tricky to overcome, as ego will constantly dangle a new carrot in front of your horse-self. A new relationship, a new haircut, a new instagram photo, a new diet, a new anything equals a new you. This roller coaster of freshness is generally short-lived, but in that short-term, Zverev seems to have reinvented himself as a ponytail cool-guy.

This is all hypothetical bullshit, but when you’re as good as Zverev, a fresh start can help. There is nothing wrong with Zverev’s game. His forehand production can get a bit poor, but he has fared fine with it at times, and the issues are all tactical and mental. Aside from that, he is a top 5 tennis player in terms of ability. He’s taller than everyone, he hits harder than almost everyone, he’s absurdly fast for his height, he has one of the best backhands on tour, and his serve is in the top 10 deliveries on tour. The only problems with his game have been mental, and how long can your ego and pride hold back talent?

Zverev’s talent and tennis-base have been dragging him forward for years now while his ego holds him back. He drags his way uninspiringly through the early rounds, and then folds against someone good who makes life difficult. The ankle injury seems to have helped him. Time away from the game has allowed him to remember that he wants to play it, and segmenting (even if it’s only an imagined separation) the dark times from his current stretch of play can go a long way. The passing of time solves many things that seem unsolvable. A colleague today informed me that time is just a human construct, but I saw him eat 3 hamburgers in one sitting once, so take that with a grain of salt. In any event, Zverev is a douchebag, but he’s playing good ball.

Beating Alcaraz has not been an impossible task over the last 6 months, but it also isn’t simple at all. Zverev served 85% first serves in for the match, and seeing him with no issues in his service delivery is scary, because the trajectory of his serves make them impossible to put a good return on. Alcaraz went to the usual dropshot-heavy tactics, but Zverev’s speed moving forward is surprisingly excellent, so this didn’t work. What I saw from Alcaraz is more of what I’ve seen post-Wimbledon, and it’s an interesting wrinkle in his progression.

Prior to Wimbledon, Alcaraz was thriving behind his defense, and it’s what led many to compare him to Nadal. Alcaraz just religiously put the ball back in the court, and it led many to fold or eventually relinquish control, at which point his forehand/dropshot combo served a great purpose. He was disciplined about shot selection, and it felt like the Spanish federation/JCF’s team had churned out another robot. Since Wimbledon, he’s playing very free. He seems interested in one-upping most shots that come at him, and he’s willing to pull the trigger on offense from anywhere at any time. In short, it’s made him beatable. He had a poor North American swing (as far as efficiency on court) and I thought, ok he just won a huge unexpected title and his team is letting him have some fun at the lower tier events. Someone smarter than me pointed out that trying to infuse more offense is a great plan for load-management over a long career, and it’s a great point, but in the short-term I think it’s something to keep an eye on. Since the next phase is clay, I don’t think there’ll be an issue. The season is too long and Alcaraz loves tennis too much. Even if he struggles early, he’s too good to really succumb to upsets and playing a bunch of tennis has a way of letting you find your focus again.

I don’t mean to blame Alcaraz’s errors, because that overlooks how absurdly well Zverev played. Zverev in form on serve is a problem, and the #s he reached are not even normal. He served at 89, 90, and 88% in three of the sets in this match. If he repeats this performance, he beats Medvedev. They have played a ton of matches (19 already on tour) and Medvedev has pretty much won when he wanted to in recent seasons. It felt at times like the Rublev Medvedev matchup where Zverev would get very close in the scoreline, but if Medvedev didn’t miss he couldn’t win. I think that shifts here because of the serving. Zverev had been very inconsistent on serve and played really passive for a good, idk, 4 seasons there? It’s hard to compare that version of him to the one who played Alcaraz, and he will likely tell you himself that ponytail Zverev is much much different. Much much different. That confidence will last I think until he loses, and then perhaps we’ll get frosted tips Zverev for clay season, or goth Zverev.

I didn’t love Medvedev’s performance against Borges, but he played well against Hurkacz. He made it clear really early on that Hurkacz had to find his own way out of rallies, and he was solid on serve. The same frustrated patches and double faults popped up, and it just seemed like he was the better player but couldn’t really score at will. I think Zverev represents a better baseliner overlaid on the same serving and net ability of Hurkacz, so this is a problem. If there’s a regression, obviously Medvedev is stable enough to come through, but Zverev seems like the better player here, and even though he’s lost the majority of recent matches, he’s won enough in the past to know it’s possible. Medvedev can beat Zverev, but can he beat a pony?

Zverev’s backhand probably is a little better than 50/50 in rallies against Medvedev here just because his technique allows him to infuse more pace than Medvedev on safe shots. Med has to really lean into the shots to get through the court with that flat technique, and I think he’ll want to spread his backhand down the line a lot in this match just to keep Zverev guessing. If Zverev serves well again, there is going to be a lot of pressure on Medvedev’s serve and since Zverev is tall, he’s likely to return a lot of serves. When Medvedev is the better returner, he’s able to apply pressure by being error-free in rallies, but that same equation reverses if Zverev is holding quickly. Medvedev having a safer more conserative approach from the baseline means the pressure builds on him to not make any errors. Predicting two upsets in the semifinals of a Grand Slam would be foolish, but this is probably Zverev’s best chance to beat Medvedev. Zverev in 4-5.