2024 Australian Open Men's Round Two

Djokovic vs Popyrin

Djokovic vs Prizmic was one of the best quality matches of the first round. Prizmic is a great talent, and he showed good composure in being willing to hang in rallies with Djokovic. Djokovic dropping a set against a junior standout in an early round has become somewhat common in the majors, so no alarm bells for him just yet. Here he’ll play another offensive talent, but Popyrin doesn’t have the defense to hang here. The scores could be close if Popyrin serves well, but serving well against Djokovic only works until he gets a read on where you’re locating it. He’s one of the best returners the tour has ever seen, and Popyrin will do well to win even a set. Djokovic in 3-4.

Monfils vs Etcheverry

Monfils seemed pretty focused in round one, winning a match in straight sets that many felt had upset potential, and by many, I mean me. Up next is Etcheverry, who dismissed Murray in a manner that had Andy floating retirement rumors. I don’t think Murray will be able to bring himself to retire until he is physically unable to play, but deep runs at majors are just not on the table anymore because he is too slow and too passive. People said at the start of his comeback that he needed to change his game, but it hasn’t really happened. His relationship with his box has never looked healthy, but it doesn’t make me optimistic. His 2016 season is still some of the best and most consistent tennis I have ever seen, so however long he wants to play is fine.

Etcheverry can drag Monfils into deep water, and it’ll become a stamina question for Gael at that point. He was able to get past Hanfmann, but Yannick plays a pretty aggressive style so the short rallies are simpler for Monfils. Etcheverry is a powerful server but it isn’t good enough to score unreturneds. Generally that’s good, but it means Monfils will be playing (or will be able to play) a lot of long points in his return games. Another tough test for Monfils’ focus. I like Etcheverry here. He’s a form player and once he gets going he’s a tough out. Monfils has the bigger games but the spectrum of quality goes higher and lower on his end; Etcheverry hits the ball hard off both wings (probably has a better backhand than Monfils) and I think he has a deeper gas-tank. Etcheverry in 5.

Mannarino vs Munar

Before the Shevchenko match there was a lot of buzz that Munar would win. It was accurate, as Shevchenko pretty much was unable to play tennis. Munar kept the ball moving, but Shevchenko couldn’t seem to make clean contact when returning serve at all. He made frequent errors, he got upset almost immediately, and he yelled at his box. He looked almost physically ill throughout the match, and it was one of the more lopsided first rounds. That makes it somewhat tricky to gauge how good Munar is playing. Certainly Mannarino is not going to blow anyone off the court, so Jaume’s consistent play should get this to at least four sets. Without the power and aggression of Wawrinka though, it’s unclear if Munar can really score on Mannarino for 3-4 hours. Shevchenko gifted him the match, and Adrian won’t. Expecting the veteran to come up with one more round of magic. Mannarino in 4.

O’Connell vs Shelton

Shelton made pretty quick work of Bautista-Agut. O’Connell almost lost to Garin. Chris is a fine player, but beating Garin quickly is not something he can do with his game-style. As it stands, Shelton has another very winnable match. His serve and forehand just seem to cause chaos; RBA looked pressured throughout the match despite serving well. I am worried by how many of Shelton’s early service games went to duece, but I think O’Connell will have a hard time holding onto the lead even if he gets it. Shelton in 3-4.

Fritz vs Gaston

Lol @ Fritz. Some people know I enjoy hating on Fritz. It went from a real sentiment to a meme, and at this point it’s just ridiculous how lackluster he manages to play when he’s a big favorite. Diaz Acosta is a good player, but he’s not really a threat to Fritz. Gaston is. RCB came in playing well, and he was quickly dismissed by Gaston. What I noticed is how difficult of a time RCB had returning Gaston’s serve. He didn’t seem able to make clean contact and it’ll be interesting to see if Fritz does better with this.

Taylor can be top 10 material, and he can be a half bored cat / half gumby prototype who gestures at reality like it isn’t obeying his will. I would expect Gaston to be very competitive in this, but Fritz’s offense is a huge step up from RCB and the players he faced in qualifiers. If Gaston gets an early lead this could be very dangerous, but Fritz should win in 4. Based off the first round, Fritz is a flight risk here and Gaston is playing well so he’ll need a quick start.

Maroszan vs Cerundolo

I’m gonna level with you. Once Cerundolo got going, I did not think Sweeny would hang on. Cerundolo’s struggles seem like they’re here to stay though. His forehand was the biggest weapon on the court, but he is really struggling to keep the ball in, and for a big-hitting offensive mastermind, that’s a problem.

Maroszan had some wobbly moments against Cilic, but Marin really wasn’t able to move. He wasn’t jumping on his serve, and wasn’t moving very well at all. Maroszan scored often with dropshots, and when he had open forehands there wasn’t much Cilic could do. Cerundolo’s speed will change that instantly, but his inconsistent play makes me think Maroszan’s run will continue. He reminds me a bit of Korda: it seems like he isn’t fully exerting but when it works out he looks like a genius. Cerundolo could outwork him but it’s probably not time to take an out of form play against in in-form one. Maroszan in 4.

Musetti vs Van Assche

Musetti got the benefit of playing a rusty Benjamin Bonzi. Van Assche had to deal with a much tougher test in Duckworth. Duckworth is playing really good ball, hitting hard, and serving well. In the fifth though, he started to rush things. He wasn’t finishing the shot off when he would come to net and he missed a number of them into the net. His forehand production is a little glitchy also and he seemed to lose shape on the ball as fatigue set in. LVA is solid, and Musetti is a wall. This is likely to last a very long time. Backhand edge goes to Luca. He hits throught the ball, has beautiful extension, and Musetti has the classic one-hander which can hit lasers or shanks. Forehand I think Musetti is more dangerous in neutral rallies, and he’s a better athlete than Van Assche. Overall this feels like a completely even match. I’d give a small edge to Musetti on serve. Musetti in 5.

Thompson vs Tsitsipas

Risky business for Thompson in round one. Vukic played well and Thompson took a few sets to really find his game. Up next is a familiar opponent. Thompson has yet to beat Tsitsipas, but he won a set in Indian Wells last season and Stefanos’ recent struggles are well documented. Playing at home against a temperamental fellow is a decent situation. Tsitsipas looked pretty solid in round one, and kept Bergs to a low score. I’d expect him to beat Thompson as well. Tsitsipas can struggle on his backhand wing, but he’s a good server and his forehand and physical ability are top 10. Tsitsipas in 4.

Sinner vs De Jong

Sinner was really solid in round one, beating a spirited Van De Zandschulp in straight sets. He really looks dangerous in neutral rallies and he’s one of the better returners on tour. De Jong is playing well, but he’s a similar level to BVDZ. Sinner in 4.

Galan vs Baez

Baez got the benefit of a JJ Wolf retirement, but he was in the process of earning it. Galan had a slightly injured opponent as well, but had to play 5 sets to get there. This is an interesting spot because Galan really is a bit better on hardcourt, but Baez’s ability to defend might balance it out. This should be really close but I think Baez is a bit more consistent in long rallies. Baez in 4-5.

Tiafoe vs Machac

A 4 set win against Coric is a good sign for Tiafoe. Next he plays a very similar opponent. Machac and Tiafoe both play behind their forehand. They both have a strong first serve. Tiafoe might have some trouble in the early-goings here. I would almost expect them to split the first two sets, and then honestly, Tiafoe has the more proven track record in majors. Machac can play at a really high level, but him winning here would be his best result on tour. Possible, yes, but it’s a bit of a “prove it” situation for me. Tiafoe in 5.

Kovacevic vs Khachanov

Altmaier was allegedly injured a few days ago but he played great against Khachanov. Despite his inability to beat the top tier, Khachanov seems an almost untenable task for the guys ranked below him. He doesn’t have a ton of variation in his game, but he hits big and he defends well. He plays to the level of his opponent at times, but his serving has gotten a bit better and that’s letting him win quicker. Kovacevic is a similar player to Altmaier, but his lack of experience might hurt him here. He won a nice match against Tabilo, but last week’s finalists are crashing out at an alarming rate and without much sense, so maybe a slight grain of salt about that win. I expect Khachanov to isolate Kovacevic’s backhand and for Kovacevic to be competitive but only as long as his first serve is landing. Karen isn’t playing his best yet, so I don’t expect a straight set win. Khachanov in 4-5.

De Minaur vs Arnaldi

Time to prove it. De Minaur has been playing great and showing signs he’s ready to make the jump, and this is a really difficult match in an early round. Arnaldi is very solid from the baseline and has some good pop on his serve. I would not expect De Minaur to be able to roll him, so it’ll be a good showcase of ADM’s patience. In a 2/3 I might give Arnaldi a better chance, but playing at home here and on these courts which benefit flat hitters, I think De Minaur will eventually get through. De Minaur in 4-5.

Kotov vs Cobolli

Some wild comebacks in both of these first rounds. Rinderknech won sets 3 and 4 and looked prime to snag the third, but Kotov was able to hold him off. Kotov looks tired during the walkout, and another long day is ahead against Cobolli. Flavio isn’t going to serve aces, which hurts him because Kotov will have chances to break early in the match, but helps him because he can keep the big man moving. Cobolli outlasting Jarry means Kotov is in for a long day. I don’t know how many 5 setters he has in him, but I think Cobolli is likely to wear him down in this so Kotov really needs the first two sets. Cobolli in 5.

Korda vs Halys

Halys’ upset was one of the quieter events of the day. He was exceptional on serve and Harris just couldn’t hang in. Halys now sets up an intriguing clash against Sebastian Korda. Korda is starting to really struggle to win simple matches, and it makes Halys a dangerous player. Korda was up two sets and cruising against Vit Kopriva, and suddenly he was in a 5th set. These lapses don’t seem to affect his play or demeanor, but I almost think they should. It’s hard to pinpoint the problem, but it’s a consistent one. As a result, it’s hard to really call him a clear winner here. Halys is an excellent serve, and he has played some solid matches against top tier opponents (most notably losing two tiebreakers against Djokovic). I’d expect Korda to wind up in deep territory again here, and he should win a 5th against just on his own quality but oof it feels like this is a very tricky match.

Eubanks vs Rublev

Another sketchy one. Seyboth Wild can be a bit of a gremlin, but he played some great tennis against Rublev seemingly out of nowhere. Rublev hung on, but the road does not get easier. Eubanks has been in a slump, but in round one he served well and hit well. When he’s on his game, it’s really hard to shut down his serve. Rublev will have to play carefully because the crowd is quick to get behind Eubanks with his style of tennis. Rublev, like Korda, should win this eventually but I think it might take some time to get there. Rublev in 4-5.

Cazaux vs Rune

Nishioka mentioned having a shoulder injury in his podcast, and said he just wanted to get through the tournament without injuring himself further. He followed this up by playing some of the best tennis he has in a while against Rune. For Rune, there really was no pressure even though the score was close. Nishioka could have won the match, but it requires so much baseline play for him to do so that Rune always has chances to break back. He lost the lead in sets a few times, but he was generally able to get looks at getting it back. I don’t know if that affected his style of play, but he was too far back in the court for me. He played a clay-court match on a fast hardcourt, and that will be trouble in later rounds. Rune has the power to hit big from there, but he made Nishioka effective with his court positioning when he can likely rush him into errors and short balls if he defends the baseline more.

Cazaux is a tough test because he’s serving very well. He had a good 5 set win against Djere, but I can’t put so much stock into it because Djere played terribly. He was impatient in long rallies, he shanked forehands, and he generally had an ineffective serving day. Still, the big man was able to get to a 5th, but he had nothing left when he got there. I would expect Cazaux to do well against Rune, because it’s another match where there isn’t a lot of pressure on Rune. Yes, he can lose the match, but it will take a long time for it to happen. Rune seems content to focus on his mechanics in these early rounds and turn it up when he needs to. He goes big on select shots which is nice but also means he’s not totally committed to long rallies in the early goings of sets. I’m guessing Cazaux wins one of the first two sets, and then gradually fades. Dangerous spot for Rune given his first round struggles, but Nishioka is probably an even contest for Cazaux right now, so Holger should find his way through. Rune in 4-5.

Fils vs Griekspoor

This is really tough to gauge. Vesely tried his usual “show up on a losing streak and win against a top player at a major” strategy, and it seemed to work early on. Fils maintained his level though and Vesely lost a little zip on his serve as things progressed. Arthur should like his chances against a slightly less than 100% Griekspoor. The 5 set match isn’t always doom in the next round, but Griekspoor came back from 2-0 down. The conditions of his comeback were also interesting. Safiullin seemed winded late in the third set. He lunged for a few Griekspoor returns and put them into the bottom of the net, and from there Tallon basically seemed inevitable. I don’t think Fils hits the same wall, but I also don’t think he’s as dominant on serve as Safiullin. No big edge from the baseline for either player, and Griekspoor might serve a little better. If Griekspoor’s stamina can hold up, he might take advantage of a slightly less experienced player here. I’m gonna say Fils in 5, but I don’t think he can get the lead in the same manner that Safiullin did so it’ll be a roller coaster of momentum.

Humbert vs Zhang

It’s wild how the tour changes over time. Humbert is somehow becoming a consistent performer after several seasons of being a notable piano player. This matchscore should have a lot of 7s in it. Zhang is a tremendous offensive talent and he’s not exactly weak on defense. Ugo hits a bit faster than he can move, and that might give him a slight edge. The good Humbert is in the top 20-30 range, and his serving can be a good weapon. This is one to get tickets to, but I’m not sure whose offense will falter on the day and that’s really what will dictate the outcome. Humbert in 4-5.

Mensik vs Hurkacz

In the midst of all the seeds dropping sets, Hubie somehow won in 3 sets against a very tricky opponent (Jasika). Also straight-setting a lefty who used to be on tour was Jacob Mensik. Shapovalov can do whatever he wants of course (it’s Shapo’s life and tennis isn’t everything), but I don’t expect him to win matches anymore and haven’t for a while. He doesn’t play often enough, and he goes for too much too often. Tennis is a stingy game. We marvel at Djokovic when he keeps the ball in the court without errors. Schwartzman made a top 30 career out of constantly hitting the court. Shapo needs to go to plan B, or the slump will continue. The good thing about the tour is that it’s very hard for a Challenger level guy to just take your spot outright, and the wildcard system tends to reward big names with at least a season or two on tour even after they’re not relevant. Shapo has time, but he needs to sharpen up, or he needs a coach who can break this stuff down for him.

Mensik Hurkacz feels like Mensik Fritz last year. I expect Mensik to match up well, but he’s expected to lose. He did have a shoulder injury last year, so hopefully this time he’s ready for the big stage. With Hurkacz in good form, Mensik will need to be very good on serve. They both like to play at the same pace during rallies and are very smooth so this is interesting for me. I think Mensik is in that box with Prizmic and he has dominated the Challenger tour in a similar manner. This should be closer than the odds would indicate, but Hurkacz in a long match is a really exhausting mental battle. Watching from home we don’t feel the mental fatigue of guessing wrong, of going out there and getting aced 4 times in a row, or not getting into a rally for 3 games in a row. It can be a grind, so I expect Hurkacz to win in 4-5.

Dimitrov vs Kokkinakis

Dimitrov looked to be doing his usual implosion thing if you watched the scoreboard against Fucsovics. He was down a set and a break, and things looked grim. I tuned in, and he was wearing a hat. It did not look cool. Tuning in helps though, as I was able to see how well Marton was playing. Fucsovics was serving okay, but he was smoking his forehand. Dimitrov was able to outlast the iniital onslaught, and he cruised from there. It sets up another winnable match against another forehand-heavy opponent, Kokkinakis.

Thanasi won a 5th set tiebreaker against Sebastian Ofner. Ofner had chances to win, but his serve abandoned him in the tiebreaker and he got handcuffed on a few backhands he normally wouldn’t miss. The crowd was, well, a factor. The Aussie crowd gets after it, and it’s inevitable that some people in the crowd want their guy to win more than they respect the game. It’s a great atmosphere, but the cheering between first and second serves needs to be policed by the crowd. Break the opponent’s spirit, but don’t cross the line. I really was impressed by Kokkinakis’ ability to still serve big in the tiebreaker. I don’t picture him as a very physically strong guy, so it’s good to see his stamina has improved a bit. Against Dimitrov, I think he has a long day. He has to be solid on serve, because Dimitrov’s speed and defense are his best attributes, and right now he’s near his best form. Dimitrov in 4.

Borges vs Davidovich Fokina

Good win for Borges, just when I’d started to write him off. ADF is the star here though, and he played some great tennis in the first round. I only caught the third set, but Lestienne was playing really well and Fokina kept bringing the offense. I love the way he always looks to hit the ball to the next position, and these conditions suit him. Borges should be a tough out because he prefers a fast paced game as well, and straight setting Marterer is a sign that he’s playing good ball, but it feels like ADF gets across the finish line here just on having more variety. ADF in 4.

Auger-Alliassime vs Grenier

Thiem and FAA gave us a great clash, and now FAA enters the actual draw. Grenier won as an underdog in every round in qualifying, and seeing a server beat so many good players should ring alarm bells for Felix. Auger-Alliassime has lost so many matches that it has the “lol he can’t lose this one too” feeling to it, but Grenier is dangerous here. FAA needs to trap him in baseline rallies and wear down his legs, because that’s the quickest way to take someone’s serving ability away from them. Grenier is a little bit slower than Felix’s power, if that makes sense, and Felix’s serving ability could grab him this one, but oof it is hard to believe in a player who keeps giving us reasons not to. Leaning into the upset here. Every time Felix hits a shot I’m like “ahh ok he unlocked it he’s back,” but he just doesn’t keep the ball in the court anymore. Grenier in 4.

Ruusuvuori vs Medvedev

Medvedev had a tricky first round, and this isn’t much better. Ruusuvuori is a strong baseliner and he hits very flat which is good in these conditions. Medvedev clearly is the favorite, but he’s not automatic against the mid-tier players and the hot conditions are not his favorite thing. That’s all I can really think of to back Ruusuvuori, so overall I think Medvedev still wins this on consistency and with slightly more effective serving. Medvedev in 4.

Zverev vs Klein

Zverev will continue to drag his way through this draw for at least one more round. Klein served very clutch against Kwon, with some really fine wide second serves from the duece side, but Zverev’s reach is a big difference maker here, and almost losing to a rusty Kwon isn’t that inspiring. Great run from Klein, but Zverev in 3.

Michelsen vs Lehecka

I see people pretty excited about Michelsen here, but he’s fallen off a little bit lately. McCabe is a guy who should lose in straights in a major, but Michelsen is not automatic against the lower tier yet. Alex can compete at a higher level in the 2/3 structure, but he can also get outworked by guys at the Challenger level still for brief periods. It’ll be interesting to see what he does with his fitness going forward, because he can transition into a solid performer like Taylor Fritz, or he might end up being an inconsistent mess like Taylor Fritz. Last season I’d give Michelsen a chance here, because Lehecka was aboard the strugglebus. This year though, he’s off to a good start and I don’t see signs of him stopping. He’s pretty accurate and careful in rallies, and I think over time he will expose Michelsen’s slight lack of lateral movement. Michelsen can cover to either side, but recovering to the next one is generally the end of his rally. Lehecka in 4.

Norrie vs Zeppieri

There are rumblings of a wrist injury surrounding Norrie, but he played fine in round one. Zeppieri is on fire, but he will now deal with one of the best pushers on tour. The good Norrie can outlast Zeppieri, and I suspect that’s what we have here. Since Norrie is a defensive player, Zeppieri may grab a set of two. Honestly, if he grabs two, I don’t see why he can’t just win the match. Hmm. Norrie in 4. I don’t see Zeppieri’s game translate this high generally, and there must be a reason for that.

Purcell vs Ruud

Purcell played careful against Valkusz, and it worked out in the end. That same style will likely get him straight-setted by Ruud, because Casper’s only real problem on fast hardcourt is that he can’t always make clean contact on defense. Ruud is playing solid, and Purcell is not at his best to start the year. Ruud in 4.

Paul vs Draper

Tommy Paul had a good first round, playing a Gregoire Barrere that just doesn’t seem ready to ball yet. Draper is coming off a finals run in Adelaide, in which he beat Tommy 4,1. Round one Draper was less than automatic though, and he’s lucky he was playing 2/3 of a tennis player. Marcos Giron had the match, but he just doesn’t have enough variety in his game. He has one of the worst backhands on tour, and the predictable nature of it (it goes crosscourt) let Draper sit in that corner.

Draper was tired, and Giron was scoring with crosscourt forehands anytime he got a full swing, but it was the only way he scored. Draper also punished him in the fifth set with dropshots. Giron ran a number of them down, but he wasn’t comfortable at net. Draper utilized the Monfils double-over tactic between points, and it seemed to confused Giron as far as tactics. He started going a bit safer, and Draper roasted him. Backhands down the line were open for Giron quite often, but more so he had dropshot opportunities. Draper was still able to swing hard, but he wasn’t moving that well. Overall, it was only Draper’s physical struggle that game Giron any chance at all, but he needs to improve the rest of his game in order to win because these opportunities don’t come along very often.

I know Tommy got the beats last week, but it feels like he’s the pick here. He’s a much more dangerous player than Giron, and Draper’s fatigue was visible. It means Paul will dig in regardless of the scoreline. For Draper, he can still rely on his offense. His serve and forehand are deadly, and his deft touches with the dropshots are a very nice addition to his game. He hits his backhand solid, so I’d expect him to win the early exchanges and gradually fade. Paul in 4-5.

Kecmanovic vs Struff

Kecmanovic managed to win a match he was supposed to win. He’s playing decent, but there is no reward at Grand Slams for winning. He now faces a difficult test in Jan-Lennard Struff. Struff was up against a tough opponent in Hijikata and he won. JL tends to play well for a few rounds when he starts winning and given Kecmanovic’s error prone baselining, Struff’s own high-risk decision-making might not get punished as much. Kecmanovic is the more resilient player and he feels more reliable, but this is likely to be played at a pace that neither are entirely comfortable in. I like Struff here because his serve-volley tactics can get him a lot of free points, and his aggressive returning can be good against a less than confident player in Miomir. Struff in 5.

Nagal vs Shang

I’m not a Dr., but Shevchenko, Bublik, and Potapova probably were sick this week. All three looked visibly ill, and played terrible despite seeming to want to play well (they are all good friends and would likely have caught each other’s colds). When you’re sick, you might look like you’re playing, but there’s just a little strength and execution missing, and patience disappears as well. Nagal just kept hitting the court and ignored the Bublik protests. He’ll be happy with Shang in round two, but it isn’t a match I think he’s favored in. Nagal is a straightforward player and he’s hitting clean this week, but Shang has more ways to create offense than him. Shang also just outdueled a fast and consistent baseliner in Mackie McDonald. Sometimes getting through that close first round can open up a players game, and unlike Bublik who missed often, Shang will likely be able to execute his offense against Nagal’s somewhat predictable patterns. With a junior standout, things rarely go smooth, so I’d expect this to take a handful of sets. Still, Shang seems like a more versatile player, and he plays at a faster pace. Shang in 4-5.

Sonego vs Alcaraz

Alcaraz won in straights, and Sonego took advantage of a struggling Evans. I do not think Sonego can pull off the upset here, but Alcaraz on hardcourt has not become an automatic thing yet and Sonego has a big serve and forehand. Alcaraz likely eliminates a big part of Lorenzo’s offense with his speed, since Sonego loves to go to the dropshot and that simply doesn’t work against Carlos. I’d say this goes 4 simply because Alcaraz seems more concerned with working on his shot selection than he is with winning quickly. Alcaraz in 4.