2024 Australian Open Men's Round Three
Djokovic vs Etcheverry
He’s done it again. Djokovic has successfully made us worry that he’s in trouble in the early rounds of a major. Popyrin enjoyed his time against Djokovic and played fairly well, but it felt like he was celebrating a bit too soon. Obviously any result against the world #1 is worth celebrating, but asking the crowd to cheer louder and fist-pumping knowingly just feels like it quietly fires Novak up. It’s not the reason he lost the match, but I think the ideal route to a big upset is to stay quiet and composed while it’s happening. Don’t give your opponent something to latch onto or take offense at, especially against Djokovic who has used a number of methods and perspectives over the years to find a way to make his opponent a perceived villain. Djokovic didn’t play his best, but it still felt like he had more gears to go to if needed so you don’t want to wake him up.
Next for Djokovic is Etcheverry, who enjoyed one of the most comfortable second rounds wins. Etcheverry beat Monfils in straight sets, and it sets up a rematch of a Paris match where the Argentine won just 5 games. The conditions here are much better for Etcheverry. Playing outdoors, a bit of heat, and a longer format do suit his game. I don’t think he matches up so well against Djokovic though. Etcheverry has a good serve but it’s somewhat readable. He has big power but you can’t really wear down Novak’s backhand or his forehand because the technique is so solid and his body control/flexibility is so good. Djokovic dropping a set to two players already makes this feel like a difficult spot for him, but I think he’ll be a little more willing to start off quick here as Etcheverry is more of a real threat to drag this out than Popyrin. Djokovic in 3-4. The potential wrist issue for Djokovic has been discussed a little bit but he seems able to play so I’m going to discount it for now.
Mannarino vs Shelton
Mannarino continues to win matches. It felt a few seasons ago that he had been solved, and could only win on grass or ultra-fast hardcourt at the 250 level. His game has become a problem for people though, and his consistency and accuracy on serve keeps him slightly favored against many of the ball-beaters on tour. Munar played a solid match, but he just never found a way to keep Mannarino on defense. Shelton is the first player Adrian is facing who I expect to do so. Ben Shelton plays a really explosive style of tennis, but he’s a good enough athlete to pull it off. His serving is exceptional and the extra pace will make things tough on Mannarino. Manna thrives on smoothing shots out and utilizing slices to frustrate his opponents into errors. He forces players to generate their own pace. Shelton can do this, and his serve is good enough to win a lot of short points. Since he’s a free-swinging player, I do think this will take more than 3 sets. Whether it’s 4 or 5 depends on Shelton’s 1st serve percentage. I like Mannarino’s play, but I think he’s a fake-test and Shelton seems legit. Plus, I want the Djokovic Shelton rematch. Shelton in 4-5.
Fritz vs Maroszan
Fritz hating is one of my treasured hobbies, but he played great in round two. He was active from 0-0, and he was able to make very clean contact on Gaston’s serve. This spelled doom for Gaston, as the hallmark of his win against RCB had been troubling Roberto’s timing on his backhand returns. Fritz got inside the baseline, and from there it was inevitable in most rallies that he’d find a winner. It makes this next round really exciting, because Maroszan is in decent form.
Maroszan got the benefit of Cerundolo’s unforced errors in round two. He’s generally a very aggressive player, but this season he’s clearly losing by forcing the issue and if his shots aren’t landing, he’d be better off scaling things back. I don’t think he had to lose to Maroszan there, but he made things simple by not testing his stamina. Fritz should be a really tough matchup for Maroszan. He returns serve decent, and he hits very clean when he’s in good form. Maroszan definitely will be able to hold serve at a good clip, but I think here Fritz might be the stronger athlete here. Pretty even forehand contest but (it hurts to say this) Taylor Fritz’s backhand is probably better here. I also think Taylor serves a bit more effectively. Should be close scorelines since Maroszan has such an effective offense and a smooth game, but I think Fritz is a few games better over a long match. Fritz in 4-5.
Van Assche vs Tsitsipas
Luca Van Assche is into the 3rd round after another 5 set win. Musetti ran out of gas in the fifth set, but all credit to Van Assche. Lorenzo’s court positioning on hardcourt is just a little too far back, and it let him get beat by a weaker athlete. LVA is tremendous, but him hitting from the baseline and Musetti hitting from behind it makes it an even match. Musetti’s team needs to work on that. Thiem had a similar issue but he altered his game and learned how to win on hardcourt. Tsitsipas had a tough one against hometown hero Jordan Thompson, but he put on his best grumpy face and he utilized his forehand well enough to get by in just 4 sets. This is a tougher match against LVA because Tsitsipas is not the more consistent player here. He’ll have a big edge on serve, and he’s likely fresher than Luca, so if Tsitsipas can get a lead here I think he might run away with things. Given Tsitsipas’ struggles in the past and his backhand remaining a big target, I think it’ll take him 4 sets to win. It’s really the first big test of Stefanos’ resolve and offense here, but Tsitsipas in 4.
Sinner vs Baez
There were times in the past where I’d think this was a tough spot for Sinner, but he seems really good this week. He ended the season on a high note, and he looks like it’ll be really difficult for anyone to stop him here. With Machac/Khachanov waiting, it’s possible he goes to the quarters without a great deal of trouble. Baez will dig in and fight the good fight, but Sinner is capable of creating off of normal baseline shots and his short angle forehands are a big problem. Sinner also is likely to put a lot of Sebastian’s serves back in play which spells a long day, or a short one. Sinner in 3-4.
Machac vs Khachanov
This looks like it’s going to be a close one. Machac played the match of his career against Tiafoe. His forehand was aggressive, his backhand was hit cleanly down the line, and he didn’t really falter even though Tiafoe played some good ball. With Khachanov starting off the year slightly less than perfect, it makes this a pretty close contest. Khachanov has dropped a set in each of his matches so far. Kovacevic was looking good early, but he was using a lot of sauce to get things done. Beautiful one-hand backhand short angles are great, but it’s hard to produce them for 4-5 sets. Soon he ran out of sauce, and extra sauce is 50 cents.
The problem with beating Khachanov is that it’s a lot of heavy lifting. He hits a heavy ball, he’s very solid on the backhand side, and he serves well. I think Machac can get himself in control of rallies, and I believe he can win a set or two, but it’ll be a big test of his stamina. Tiafoe tends to play shorter points and go much more aggressive. This is a match where clearly Machac is sharper, but every win here is now the biggest of his career and the toughest as well. I think he’s capable, but if Khachanov can get to set 3 on even terms, I think he wins. Machac in 4 or Khachanov in 5.
De Minaur vs Cobolli
De Minaur had a tough test against Arnaldi and he handled it beautifully. He was aggressive from the start and he hit his backhand down the line effortlessly throughout the match. It sets up a very similar match against Flavio Cobolli. Cobolli has been an underdog hero thus far, besting Jarry and Kotov, but I don’t expect this match to wind up in a 5th set. He played offensive talents so far and he had an edge on stamina from the baseline. De Minaur is probably a game or two better if they start rallies on neutral terms, and he’s serving well and having one of the most promising starts to a season ever. It feels like no seed is safe, but De Minaur should win this in 3-4.
Rublev vs Korda
I see that doubting Rublev and Korda summons their best tennis. Halys and Eubanks shouldn’t give much trouble to their opponents on paper, but the first rounds for Korda and Rublev went to 5 so it’s a good sign that they righted their respective ships and got through in straights. Rublev and Korda have played twice, and Rublev won both in straight sets. He looked automatic against Eubanks, as if his shots could only land within the court. Computer mode is a good thing to hit, as Korda’s tricky offense is usually only upended by the duration of the match. Despite Rublev having not dropped a set to Korda, it may happen here. Korda’s form can vary widely and he’s currently playing some sharp tennis. This will probably be a really entertaining contest, with Rublev’s raw power and aggression pitted against Korda’s smooth and effortless offense. I think Rublev is a slightly better returner and his serving stats in 2023 were surprisingly good. It’s easy to pick Rublev because of the h2h and because of Korda’s inconsistency, so … I will? Neither are playing their best, so I don’t think it’ll be a straight setter. Rublev in 4-5.
Cazaux vs Griekspoor
Big surprise in round two with Rune crashing out in just 4 sets. He seemed to get frustrated as the match progressed and tried to make the ball explode rather than work the point. Honestly, in these fast conditions it might not make sense to slow things down, but Rune appeared to have a mental block here. That mental block made more sense when it was revealed that Cazaux had beaten him 6 times in their junior careers. You can toss out prior results quite often, but 6-1 is pretty dominant. I missed that stat in my review, and while Rune imploding is somewhat standard a few times a year, Cazaux winning here is his best result on tour. Cazaux’s strengths right now are his serve and his aggressive shotmaking, and in these fast conditions he’s thriving. It’s been said that the stadium courts are slightly slower, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares as the matches are mostly played on the big stages going forward.
Griekspoor has had a tough draw but has navigated it well. He was a slow starter in round one but against Fils he established himself early in the second set and never looked back. The good Griekspoor is a tough out, and Cazaux’s offense will be put to the test here. These two better not have secretly played in the juniors ten times. For me, Cazaux’s play is great, but Griekspoor is a big step up from Djere in terms of execution right now and Arthur had a tough time hitting through him. The win against Rune is great, but Holger tends to help his opponent once he starts losing and his losses tend to look like implosions rather than defeats. Griekspoor is unlikely to fold, and I think it’s another spot where he’ll outlast his opponent. Cazaux is definitely serving slightly better, so I would expect this to wind up in a 5th. Griekspoor in 5.
Humbert vs Hurkacz
This round in general is really tricky. Hurkacz played 5 with Mensik but I rate Mensik really high so I think that was a solid win. Hurkacz’s serve can basically drag him through any hardcourt match, and the 3/5 format helps servers a bit because trading sets is not as disastrous. The previous meeting with Humbert on hardcourt was in Basel 2023, and Hurkacz won it in a third set tiebreaker. Humbert is playing really well this week, and I’d give him equal chances to win here. Humbert’s pace and ability to hold his shot during baseline rallies should make things tough on Hurkacz, but that might not be a huge factor here since this is likely to see a lot of short points and unreturned serves. Humbert is not the best returner, and Hurkacz’s height does allow him to put balls in play a little more often than you’d expect. I like Humbert’s chances here but Hurkacz is a tough puzzle to solve for anyone. I also can picture Ugo throwing in a few poor service games and gifting a set or two. I’d love to type Humbert in 5 but a server in a 5th set is generally one of the toughest opponents. Hurkacz in 5.
Dimitrov vs Borges
Dimitrov continues to play well, and a 4 set win against Kokkinakis sets up another winnable match. It’s always scary when the guy who won in straights the round before gets an early lead, and ADF let this match get away from him. I’m always impressed by his ability to constantly produce another offensive shot, but here it felt like he forced things. Borges wasn’t even playing that clutch, but he kept the ball in the court and hit with good pace and that allowed Fokina to find a loss. Underhand serves in key moments have been an exciting part of ADF’s game in the past, but some big losses with some have occurred also. Now it feels like he’s locked into the strategy. To prove it wasn’t a bad choice last time, you might want to do it again. If you were about to do it and then thought better, you might go “no trust yourself” and do it. If you know you’re known for it, you might think you would surprise them by doing it again in such an obvious moment. In any event, he threw one in in the third and got broken.
This is a great result for Borges who has struggled to string wins together on tour, and it’s likely the end of the road but his two wins so far are really impressive if you just look at the score. Dimitrov can fold, but he’s playing well here and more importantly his defense is solid. He’s working his way through the draw rather than swinging his way through, and I don’t think Borges will have enough ways to score against an opponent who isn’t feeling a ton of pressure. Given Nuno’s run thus far, I think he can do at least as well as Kokkinakis, but it’s too uphill. Dimitrov in 3-4.
Auger-Aliassime vs Medvedev
Felix won in 4 sets and it was a good performance. There was a time when beating a Challenger level servebot wasn’t a surprise, and hopefully we get back to those days. The reward for his efforts is a match against one of the best defensive players on tour, Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev tried to lose to Ruusuvuori, employing a number of poor dropshots and a series of tantrums, but it didn’t work. By the fourth set, he found a good rhythm and the fifth was a 6-0 win that was hard to watch. Ruusuvuori shot a sad look to his box in the fourth set tiebreaker, and it was one of a number of losses this week that were hard to watch (Klein’s missed volley at 7-8 and Struff’s slice long at match point come to mind).
These conditions and Medvedev’s struggle might spell trouble, but Felix has been really inconsistent for a while now and I don’t know if hitting through Medvedev is on the menu. The good Felix is capable of winning against Medvedev because he can generate so much power on his forehand and Daniil’s thing is giving you no pace in the hope that you force things. Since Felix can actually create, it will give him ample opportunities to drive the ball. If he can get Medvedev to open his racquet face, it’ll be easy to come to net. My problem with believing in that is I don’t believe in that. I don’t think Felix has faced anyone that good yet, and I haven’t seen him play 3-4 hours of consistent tennis in at least a year. Medvedev may adopt the outlast strategy again, but I think it will work. Medvedev in 4.
Zverev vs Michelsen
Huge upset for Michelsen. I was thinking that he wasn’t physically strong enough to get this done, but once he started serving well the match really opened up for him. Lehecka played passive, which is common against a big server, but Alex is really good from the baseline if he has time. He spread his backhand well and really was the more offensive-minded player throughout this match. On fast courts, that’s going to work. Lehecka is one of the last good performers from last week still in the event, and it seems like nobody was able to keep it going here.
Zverev is lucky to be in this round. Klein played the best match of his career, and having watched him in the Challenger level I really haven’t seen so much variety and skill from him. It’s a good sign that he might be able to remain on tour, because that level of play can beat a lot of the 50-100 range guys. Klein is also best on clay, so it should be a good year for him. He had break points and a forehand in the fifth, and also had a simple volley at 7-8 in the tiebreak, so the loss might stick with him for a while, but they’ll give him a big check and he’ll bounce back hopefully.
I don’t think Michelsen can beat Zverev. Zverev continues to be a pusher, but his serve drags him through these matches and when he really has to, he can come up with some big shots on the run. Michelsen is good enough with time to score on Zverev, but I think this will look like a big brother younger brother situation. It feels crazy to say that after Klein really had the match in hand against Zverev, but Zverev is a bit too solid for Michelsen and Klein’s skill and variety were a big factor in the last round. Zverev in 4-5.
Norrie vs Ruud
Hmm. The guy who barely beat Zeppieri or the guy who barely beat Purcell. I gotta be honest, Purcell and Zeppieri both played a way more exciting match of tennis than Ruud and Norrie, but the majors increase the value of durability. Zeppieri was up two sets at one point, but the late break in the second made me start to worry. He started to make errors while going for shots, and despite being clutch, being at 30-30 against Norrie is a bad sign. Norrie is really just looking to frustrate you into errors, and the errors eventually came. Zeppieri was able to reset in the fifth and had chances to win, but it was him supplying all the offense and Norrie profiting from his percentages in the end.
Ruud had a tough test against Purcell as well, but just snuck by in a 5th set tiebreaker. He should be slightly favored against Norrie, but I don’t think it’s a lock. Ruud’s backhand remains pedestrian, and Cam plays in the usual lefty patterns. The big problem for Norrie against Zeppieri was his forehand power. Zepp was crushing the ball and took a full swing at every shot. I don’t think Ruud has the same intent or the same ability, and Norrie will be familiar with his shot patterns. This is one where Cam will have to come up with some offense of his own, because whoever is down in the scoreline here is just going to dig in and hit the court. I think that’s where Norrie will falter. He’s a good player and a great defender, but his mechanics can go a bit awry and Ruud’s technical swings are very reliable. Should be a long one. Ruud in 4-5.
Paul vs Kecmanovic
Despite being on his last legs, Jack Draper is still an incredible tennis player. If they had $ matches on tour, I think he’d be able to beat just about anyone in the 2/3 format. He just hits the ball huge and his backhand isn’t bad at all. I’m loving the dropshots he’s working into his game. In this match Tommy just kinda knew Draper would eventually miss though. Paul took full swings and stayed in the crosscourt patterns and his serving was really consistent out wide from the duece court. He constantly had Draper off camera returning, and that’s a good thing for this next round because Kecmanovic is playing excellent.
I only caught the fifth set, but wow was Kecmanovic good on serve. He landed 76% first serves in, and they were quick deliveries too. I was shocked at the pace that him and Struff played at. It was so fast they basically couldn’t pull away from each other, and any full swing off a forehand was a point. Struff loves to come to net, but Miomir was crushing backhands while on the run and that’s really what gave him an edge. When they got in neutral rallies, Struff looked like he wanted out anytime the ball went to his backhand. He made some ill-timed runs to net and got punished for it. Four times in the tiebreak he was up a minibreak, but his serve just left him when he needed it. Both players held from 15-40 at 5-5 and 5-6, and really this was a high level contest. Struff had the first match point, and a ball in the frontcourt. He sliced it behind Kecmanovic, and caught Miomir off balance, but it sailed long.
Kecmanovic has a pretty good record against Paul, so this should be a closer match than some might imagine. He’s been struggling lately, and the 6-1 sets he dropped to Struff are a concern, but he ended the match in a good rhythm on serve and from the baseline. He won in 2022 against Paul at the AO in straight sets, but he lose their most recent meeting. I’m not expecting this to be a smooth match for Tommy at all, but given his win against Draper he should enter in good enough form to win. The upset is really dangerous here, but Paul in 4-5. I think Tommy is just a bit more durable than Struff in long rallies despite not having the same ability to win quick service points.
Shang vs Alcaraz
Great result for Shang even though he had a pretty fortuitous draw. Next is a match that’s really a reward for a young player. He gets to test himself against one of the best players on tour, and a guy who’s willing to play for the crowd. Alcaraz dropped a set against Sonego, but post Wimbledon he’s dropped a ton of sets and the outcome generally feels assured. What makes this third round slightly interesting is that Alcaraz tends to have trouble with lefties. I don’t really buy Shang hitting through him for any extended period, but it should be a really fun match since Shang trades power well and Alcaraz is a puppy who just wants to have fun and wonders why you keep saying numbers. Alcaraz in 3-4.