2024 Australian Open Men's Round One

Djokovic vs Prizmic

It’s fitting that after defeating all the humans, Djokovic should have to face the dinosaurs. Djokovic has won this event a whopping 10 times and last year he did not face many challenges. At this point he’s won 28 matches in a row here, a streak which is amazing, and also likely to continue. At the start of the season players have had a chance to rehab injuries and get themselves in peak physical condition, so it makes sense that it’s hard to really make any inroads into Novak’s game since at his best he’s only beatable by a few legendary pokemon.

Dino Prizmic is a great talent, and qualifying here is a great start, but this is a bad draw. There are mid-tier players that he could challenge, and his performances on the Challenger tour indicate that he’ll be on tour by the end of the season, but this is too much too soon. Djokovic has a habit of starting slow so we might get to see a little spark of excitement or a donated set, but this seems like an inevitable outcome. Djokovic in 3.

Popyrin vs Polmans

Popyrin is just supposed to win this match, and he honestly should. Last season Popyrin had a good start to the year and talked about how hard he and his team had been working. Very good stuff to hear, but when he loses or struggles he reverts quickly back to the same errors that keep him from getting the most out of his game : Forehands into the bottom of the net, backhands into the tape, and just a general willingness to go for too much for the duration of the match. I don’t think he’s physically incapable of grinding things out, but he seems mentally unwilling. It’s the only reason that a grinder like Marc Polmans is even in the conversation with Popyrin, but this is completely on Alexei’s racquet here, and not in a good way. If he plays well, he wins in 3-4.

Hanfmann vs Monfils

This has the makings of a four hour battle. Monfils is a supremely gifted athlete who plays for the crowd and is very theatrical and emotive about his physical endurance. He doubles over and grabs his ankles when he loses a point, he does jumping fist-pumps when he wins one. He’s one of my favorite players to watch, but I’d give him a yellow card for flopping at least once a season. Yannick Hanfmann is the ideal foil for him, because he plays very seriously. Hanfmann is mostly a clay-court specialist, but he’s 6’4” and his serve is big enough to make him dangerous on hardcourt.

Monfils is a good returner, but his passivity gives Hanfmann a chance to be competitive here. The good Gael can win this in 3, because Yannick’s lateral movement isn’t up to par, but it’s rare that Monfils remains focused and puts in the work to keep his opponent moving. Even if things go well for him for a few points, he tends to dial up a big shot, almost as a heat check. There’s no real analysis here. If Monfils has lapses in concentration, Hanfmann will win sets. In the end, it’s just on Monfils to put in the work, and there’s no great way in a first round to know if he will. Monfils in 4-5.

Murray vs Etcheverry

If Hanfmann and Monfils are playing 4 hours then this one will go 5. Etcheverry and Murray have played twice before, both matches going the distance (Etch in Basel and Murray in Indian Wells). I’m surprised to see Murray favored here, but neither player has had a good start to the year. Etcheverry has lost to Shevchenko and Machac (not bad losses) and Murray has lost to Dimitrov and played a few exhibitions (won against Thiem and lost to Cilic).

Overall, Murray is the better player tactically but his legs have an expiration date in a match. He showed good improvement over the past two seasons but there is a clear ceiling on his mobility, and his attitude prevents him from navigating the rough patches in a way that would allow him to change his game or learn. It is fun to watch Murray run into a wall over and over but I do not think he is going to go to Hogwart’s this season. He can win in 3 if he plays his A game but I would expect Etcheverry to eventually wear him down. Etcheverry in 5.

Mannarino vs Wawrinka

Sitting at home, we know Mannarino is supposed to win this and that Wawrinka’s stamina is gone, but it’s another thing to make it happen. Mannarino had his best year ever in 2023, winning 3 titles on tour and rising to 20th in the rankings, so he’s just expected to win somehow here. The problem is that Wawrinka in a first round is at his best. He has a cannon for a serve and Mannarino’s trouble has always been huge power. They played 3 last year with Mannarino winning, and I’m expecting something similar. Wawrinka should be able to win with his best tennis, but Mannarino’s defense and patience should eventually earn him errors, and his ability to serve wide (similar to Muller and Nadal at this point) from the ad side is a big bonus since Wawrinka uses a one-hander. Mannarino in 4-5.

Shevchenko vs Munar

Jaume Munar starts off the year playing some decent hardcourt, so this is a tough draw. Shevchenko looked a bit out of sorts in his opening matches, seen shaking his head even after winning some points, but he’s playing at a high level still. He serves bigger than Munar, he hits bigger on both wings, and he’s more comfortable on the surface. It could be deceptively close since Munar is such a consistent player and has a great mind for the game, but Shevchenko should always edge this out. Shevchenko in 4.

O’Connell vs Garin

O’Connell is supposed to be the pick here, but I really don’t know if he’s reliable. He seems to have an Altmaier-esque set of results, where he randomly competes even with a top player but then struggles to beat Taro Daniel a few weeks later. He’s a good enough server and is very consistent at times, but physically I think Garin has the bigger gas-tank here. Garin hasn’t played any warmup matches at all, but he won their two previous meetings on hardcourt and we’ve seen time and time again how hard it is to hit through him in a long match. I expect O’Connell to win the early exchanges but if Garin isn’t struggling with his serve (sometimes his first serve can disappear) then this should get close. Garin in 4-5.

Bautista-Agut vs Shelton

RBA has finally lost a tiny fraction of a step, but it’s impacting his game a bit. He used to seem very composed in between shots, and always seemed to be 2-3 shots ahead in terms of his plan. Now he’s looking a bit more reactive, and it means that he’s still in the same positions to win, but he’s not as automatic when he gets there. This is a tough first round for him. I’m starting to see parallels to Shapovalov in Shelton’s game. He’s enjoying such instant success and his shot selection is similar. The inside out forehand is a scary weapon, and I’m still a big fan of the degree of commitment he has to his backhand slice when he goes for it. Shelton seems able to dial up some huge serves also once he knows he’s won his matches, and that means that with comfort on tour and continued conditioning work that he might get a bit more consistent on-serve.

The Shapovalov parallel is relevant to me because I’d like to see Shelton work on a B game. Shapovalov plays at one pace. “We’re gonna skate to one song, and one song only.” It’s a beautiful and entertaining pace but you play people into form when they see the same pace coming nonstop, and it’s extra physical exertion when it isn’t always necessary or useful. Shelton’s loss to Djokovic looked a lot like Shapo’s losses to mid-tier players. When faced with a guy who can put the ball in play after your first tier of offense, you need to be able to move the ball efficiently more than you need to be able to hit hard, so I’m interested to see what Shelton’s team does with that. To me, these 250s are ideal training ground to work on accuracy and pace-changes, especially since he’s pretty dominant against a lot of the lower-tier players. Just to clarify, he’s not going to turn into Shapo, but he could benefit from a similar adjustment. More shape, smaller targets, less energy expended. Anyway yeah, Shelton in 3-4 here. RBA just seems a little bit capped right now as far as output.

Fritz vs Diaz Acosta

Wake up, Taylor, we’ve gotten you another soft draw. Diaz Acosta is a hard worker, but Fritz should beat him in 3.

Carballes Baena vs Gojo

Two years ago this wouldn’t have been a great match. Borna Gojo somehow reinvented himself as a hard-court terror, seemingly just by dying his hair blonde. I dyed my hair blonde also, but all that happened was I got roasted by some high school kids.

RCB has always been solid, but this past week he managed to beat RBA (not the best) and Sebastian Ofner (pretty good). Here Gojo should win, but I suspect it will take a long time. He lost both his openers but they were against Fils (who’s excellent) and Tabilo (who’s in the finals of Auckland). I think just being in a third there means he’s playing well enough to win, but RCB will punish his legs and he’s excellent at hitting passes with his backhand so Gojo will want to approach to the forehand mainly in this. Tough draw for both and either winning would make sense. Gojo in 4-5.

Maroszan vs Cilic

Cilic is back? I’ll take it. This should be an exciting match with implications. Maroszan probably thinks he’s supposed to win this. He’s the new funky name on tour, and he’s starting to win matches. He has a really smooth forehand that seems to create winners from heights and locations that surprise me. He has a penchant for dropshots, and seems committed to a very smooth and composed approach to the game. I like it, but it feels like he can still be outworked at this stage in his career, and he does still miss. Cilic lost a close opener to Struff in his return from injury, and he beat Murray in an exo. Really no way to know who wins this opening clash between the two, but I think Cilic is a bit more experienced in a dogfight and I don’t expect this to be simple for either player. Cilic in 4-5.

Sweeny vs Cerundolo

Dane Sweeny was up against it the entire time in qualifying. He was projected to lose against each opponent and he wound up at duece in what felt like the majority of his service games. He kept pushing though, and eventually Zizou Bergs was forced to retire in the final set of qualifying. It’s a well-earned result for Sweeny, who has a somewhat winnable match here. Cerundolo can beat Sweeny all day. He’s just another tier of player, but he hasn’t shown any commitment to getting across the finish line recently. He’s on 5 losses in a row, and RBA and Muller are not great ones. Expecting him to wake up at a major is fine, but it isn’t guaranteed. I’d avoid this one, because Cerundolo is a major flight risk right now. Cerundolo in 4 if he’s awake.

Bonzi vs Musetti

Musetti slumbered for about two years but he played some tennis this week. He went down in a thriller against Bublik but not before beating Jordan Thompson. Bonzi won their previous meeting and is capable of playing this to even terms, but a motivated Musetti is really hard to beat. Might be a slight reversal here, but these are two players whose form varies wildly from week to week. Musetti in 4.

Duckworth vs Van Assche

Perfect pairing. I don’t think either player can hit through the other. Both have really solid backhands. Duckworth might have the stronger serve but wow this is likely to be a very long match. Duckworth has been at his best to start the season or LVA would be an easy pick. Add into the mix that LVA has had some trouble closing out matches in the last few months, and it gets trickier. LVA in 5 is kinda what I’m expecting.

Vukic vs Thompson

Recency bias makes this one tough. If you show me this match last season I like Vukic. He serves bigger, hits harder, and he has a better attitude. Thompson has started the year off great though, and beating Nadal is pretty impressive. It was one of the first times I saw Thompson thinking about where he was directing the ball, and one of the first times I saw him opening up on his forehand. These guys really get scrunched up by the tour and mistakes cost them matches so they play so conservative, but most of the pros are pretty excellent. Thompson is sharper here, and in a long match his work ethic is likely to pay off. Might be closer than we think though, since Vukic is technically allowed to try to win also. Thompson in 4-5.

Berrettini vs Tsitsipas

Couple of guys who’ve had a great career but are completely written off (for big titles) going at it here. Berrettini hasn’t played since the USO, and I’m not 100% expecting him to take the court here. Tsitsipas will win if he does, because as bad as he is, he has been active and wants this badly. He’s defending finals points here which means pressure, but he also plays well here because physicality is a factor and his physical strength is really the best part of his game. Tsitsipas in 4.

Sinner vs Van De Zandschulp

Botic was just starting to look good out there again, so this is a tough draw. Should be entertaining since BVDZ is so skillful, but Jannik is in a new tier and seems like he will challenge for at least one major this season. Sinner in 3-4.

De Jong vs Cachin

De Jong had his hands full in the final round of qualifying against Ugo Carabelli, including trailing in the final set tiebreaker by a few points early, but he really hung on and deserves this qualifying spot. De Jong has been grinding the Challenger tour for a few seasons now and he is good enough enough to be on tour. His game reminds me of early Rune, and the power he has is good to have in this spot. Cachin can be great and Cachin can be middling, and that will be the deciding factor here. De Jong can beat the bad Cachin, but the good one is at least as good as Ugo Carabelli so it’ll be very close. Cachin hasn’t been active so there’s some hope for Jesper. De Jong in 3-4 or Cachin in 5.

Galan vs Kubler

Kubles! I really like Jason Kubler’s game, but there isn’t a lot to set him apart from the rest of the tour. He should be almost dominant with his serve and forehand, but Galan’s speed can shut a lot of that down. Kubler’s health isn’t 100%, and his opponent is a bit of a wall once he gets confidence. This is a really tricky one, but I think Galan wins in 4-5.

Wolf vs Baez

JJ Wolf is an exciting player, but he’s struggling to win the matches he needs to. It makes it really tough to back him here. Baez is always beatable in 2/3 format on hardcourt. He doesn’t have a serve. It’s basically like playing Diego Schwartzman if he were a slightly worse returner. What Baez does do is find his rhythm though. If the points are not kept short, he eventually stops missing, and from even I think he’s a much better baseliner than the current JJ Wolf. Wolf could right the ship easily, but from what we’ve seen so far this year Baez is likely to win this one. Baez in 4-5.

Tiafoe vs Coric

Tiafoe is hard to predict here. He always seems to step it up at majors, but he didn’t really end last year with any positive performances. He has had some extremely long slumps in the past, and even if he decides he wants to play, it isn’t automatic. Errors can creep in, and then the opponent becomes an issue. Coric seems like one of the more annoying opponents on tour. Constant celebrations of any success and a general willingness to try to outlast you. Add in that he focuses on playing as error-free and composed as he can (even to the point of trying to be so error-free that he makes anxious errors #commitment) and he seems like the ideal opponent to beat a struggling Tiafoe. i’m fine being wrong here because it gets us something good. I think Coric wins, but if he doesn’t it means the cannon-arm forehand dominant Tiafoe will show up. I love watching this dude win points, and him playing well drastically changes this section of the draw from being a Khachanov cakewalk. Coric in 4.

Machac vs Mochizuki

Mochizuki gets in as a lucky loser spot, and it isn’t the worst draw. Machac is playing well and has shown good promise in the past few seasons, but he can lapse late in matches. It feels now that he’s able to play one and a half sets of perfect offensive tennis, and then the rest is up for grabs. Mochizuki is a crafty player who wins behind his backhand and his ability to close to net. He is wildly entertaining, but because of the power differential here I don’t think he wins the early exchanges. It hurts to pick against him, but I think Machac getting the first set is very likely and Mochizuki’s serve isn’t good enough to protect a lead even if Machac has lapses late in this match. Sad emoji. Machac in 4.

Tabilo vs Kovacevic

Popcorn time. Tabilo is currently in the finals, and he’s playing some great tennis. Having a great lefty go against a guy with a suspect one-handed backhand is always a formula for some good willpower battles. I think this will be very close, since Kovacevic can serve well enough to hang even. Tabilo’s forehand is a laser and will likely be the difference here, but endurance may become a question since he’s just played a whole week of tennis. It shouldn’t be a huge difference between qualifying and a 250, but it might be and the emotional letoff of winning or even just making the finals can be tough to recover from. Tabilo in 4-5.

Altmaier vs Khachanov

Altmaier had to withdraw from his last match so there’s not a lot to say here. If he’s okay, he plays great tennis and this could be tough. I’m guessing he pulls out though, or Khachanov is able to grind through a subdued version of Daniel. Khachanov has had a less than stellar start to the year, but at the majors he’s pretty reliable. Khachanov in 3.

De Minaur vs Raonic

I forgot about Raonic. Recently though, I was at the supermarket. I wanted some Nibblets but the best ones were on the top shelf (obv that’s how they get you). Just then I saw Raonic and I said “hey can u grab those for me?” He just turned and smiled, then ran his hand thru his hair and patted me on the back and walked away. Just then Ivo Karlovic showed up. “Hey brother, you’ve got gel on your shirt,” he said, while practice his karate chops. Anyway, Raonic is back I guess, and that’s good. Any big serve has a chance in an early round, but I think De Minaur is going to be able to hold serve quite often just due to Raonic’s rust and I think Milos has always thrown in at least 1 terrible service game per 2 sets. Could be tricky if Raonic serves first, but De Minaur in 3-4.

Arnaldi vs Walton

I’m not really familiar with Adam Walton’s game which is exciting. Arnaldi is likely to beat him, but since he does most of his work from the baseline we’ll get a really good look at a new player who’s notching some decent wins lately (Cahcin, Zapata Miralles). Arnaldi in 3-4. Arnaldi De Minaur round two is likely to be really good.

Kotov vs Rinderknech

Kotov manages to look completely exhausted and play solid tennis. It’s really pretty entertaining, and he should be slightly relieved to be playing someone whose physical output might be even lower than his. Rinderknech has turned in some great performances on offense but his defense remains a problem for him on tour. I think Kotov will be slightly more able to break, and he’s in better form. Kotov in 4-5.

Cobolli vs Jarry

The men’s qualifying was really good quality, but they’re landing in some tough spots in this draw. Cobolli is an energetic baseliner who wears down his opponents. He tends to win when he’s the bigger hitter, but that won’t be the case here. Jarry isn’t automatic on hardcourt, but he still serves very well and he hits big. I don’t think this can end in straight sets either way, but Jarry should have a simpler time holding serve as the match drags on and his ability to trade power from the baseline may prove problematic as Cobolli might not be able to hold quickly. Jarry in 4-5.

Korda vs Kopriva

This is probably the only time on tour that this isn’t an automatic win for Korda. Sebastian has really remained mellow during his slump, but he’s found a way to lose matches that he simply doesn’t need to. Yes, professional tennis is tough, but it’s tougher still when you don’t give full exertion. Korda seems similar to Thiem to me right now, in that they’re working on a future goal rather than sweating current results. Vit Kopriva was the most business-like qualifier, and that consistent approach will likely yield him success if Korda doesn’t start quick. It sounds crazy to say it but if Kopriva just won this match I wouldn’t blink. Korda in 4 is what we expect but I’m really not sure what we’ll get here.

Halys vs Harris

Lloyd Harris has the rare ability to always be mounting a comeback. Anytime he appears on tour feels like it’s the first time he made it there. He was good in qualifying and has a winnable first round. Halys is a servebot, and Harris is a strong server as well. Harris tends to drag his opponents and rely on his forehand and physicality, and that should be good enough to edge Quentin here. Harris in 4-5.

Eubanks vs Daniel

Chris Eubanks has been in a half a slump since his Wimbledon heroics, so this is a good opportunity for him. Taro Daniel is currently in the finals of Auckland so he’ll be favored to win here, but he’s a guy who earns his points and Eubanks will have time and opportunities even if he’s on the losing end of the scoreline. I don’t expect a one-sided affair, because Taro wins in close matches when he does win. I have really enjoyed watching Daniel’s kick serve this week though, and wins against Shelton signify that he’s able to beat Eubanks. Daniel in 4-5.

Seyboth Wild vs Rublev

Let’s get all the lil grumpy bois together, said the drawmaker. Rublev doesn’t seem to be peaking yet, but this is a pretty simple one. Seyboth plays at a high level 75% of the time, but he misses a fair bit also and Rublev will wear him down. If Seyboth takes his foot off the gas, Rublev also has a cannon for a forehand. The weather doesn’t suit Rublev but the courts do. Rublev in 3.

Rune vs Nishioka

Lil grumpy boi section part II. Rune is a really exciting prospect this year at the majors. He has no pressure as he’s shifted into that second tier of names always added as “darkhorses”, but he’s playing at a high level and his game matches up nicely against the current top names on tour. Nishioka is likely to test his mettle since he’s so solid from the baseline, but Rune’s returning has gotten a bit more offensive recently so Nishioka will be going uphill here. Depending on Rune’s focus level (and his patience), Rune in 3-4.

Djere vs Cazaux

Djere opened this season by losing to Shang. Some people seem to think that’s a bad sign, but I really like Shang’s game and I think he was just a bit more motivated for early points this season. Djere will face another hungry feller in round one here, playing Arthur Cazaux. I got the chance to watch Cazaux crush Mochizuki last year at the USO qualifiers and his A game is really effective regardless of the opponent. He has a really solid backhand, and a big service delivery. A challenger title in Noumea last week means Djere will have his hands full, but I just don’t think he can beat Djere in a marathon, and Laslo being tall makes him a decent returner. This is a perfectly 50/50 match to me, so I’m happy to be wrong here, but I think Djere’s base level will remain competitive throughout, and Cazaux will peak and slump a bit. Djere in 5.

Fils vs Vesely

Vesely shows up at the majors, nursing injury issues, inactive, and after losses at the Challenger level, then he wins somehow. I’ve seen it too many times, but I’m going to get fooled again. The reason I feel comfortable there won’t be heroics here is that Arthur Fils finally has enough experience to realize how good he is. He didn’t win the event last week, but he absolutely looked to be enjoying his time out there. His forehand and dropshots are world-class, and his speed means that plan B (to drag Vesely out until he’s tired) is an option as well. Should be a fun contest, but Fils in 3-4.

Safiullin vs Griekspoor

Safiullin had a good start to the year, winning three matches in a row in Brisbane. Griekspoor has had another sort of run, losing 4 matches in a row over the last month. One of those was a three set loss to Djokovic though, and the other three were against Ruud, Sinner, and Coric. I don’t think this is a bad matchup for him, despite Roman Safiullin being in good form. Both are good servers with a lot of power. Griekspoor has the better backhand for my money, but struggling with confidence can factor in when things get close, and I would imagine most sets in this match will be decided by a single break. I don’t really like Safiullin here, but it’s prudent to leave him as the favorite until Griekspoor gets out of his funk. The thing about odds is that the players don’t have to abide by them. This is a big moment at a major, and Griekspoor is healthy and has wins against a lot of the tour’s top players. Someone in 5.

Humbert vs Goffin

Goffin is back. It always feels like he’s back, but this time, he’s back! To be fair, the manner in which he’s winning isn’t the most inspiring, but he’s winning. Goffin has been able to outlast some strong offenses in qualifying, which is why I suspect this is the end of the road for him. Humbert is still somewhat unreliable at times, but he’s been in a good patch lately. This should have a tremendous amount of exciting rallies, but Humbert has a little bit more oomph on his serve and is a tier above the guys David has been outlasting. Feels uncomfortable to be too confident in either player since they both rely way more on skill than physical strength, but Humbert in 3-4.

Zhang vs Coria

Zhizhen Zhang has become a force on tour. Coria is always tricky but Zhang should be pretty dominant here. Zhang in 3.

Shapovalov vs Mensik

Shapovalov showed up last week and lost quickly to Sebastian Ofner. This a slightly easier match, but it’s all about Denis’s errors. Double faults, forehands into the tape, and a general lack of change from his camp seem to be holding Shapo back. He’s one of the more inactive players on tour, and Mensik has just played a few good warmup matches in qualifying. Mensik is a strong right-hander who isn’t the most durable athlete yet but plays a very solid brand of offense. I think he has great potential to end up in the top 20-30 on tour, and this would be a good start. If Shapovalov finds his game, he can win since Mensik is still playing at around a 75-100 tier level, but Shapovalov just doesn’t seem capable of problem-solving once he’s out there. Mensik in 4.

Jasika vs Hurkacz

Medjedovic playing Shelbayh in qualifying felt wrong, but they had an amazing match. Shelbayh pulled off the upset, but Jasika beat him in the final round of qualifiying. For Jasika this is a return to the tour a long time in the making. He was a junior standout who was suspended for testing positive for cocaine. Omar is a lefty who plays a bit like Mannarino and despite not being the most powerful player, he has a good sense for what shots to utilize at different times. He could easily nab one of the Hurkacz set donations here, but we all expect Hurkacz to roll once he gets his serve going. Hubert loves to keep us guessing and he can lose his length from the baseline for absurd stretches, but Hurkacz in 3-4.

Dimitrov vs Fucsovics

Dimitrov seems good again, but was he good before? The way he’s playing now seems better than anything I’ve ever seen from him, and I’m on board with him just being a late bloomer. I don’t think he’ll magically win major titles, but he seems comfortable on the court where in the past he always looked a bundle of thought and anxiety (which generally originates in thought). This is the sort of match where he used to find a way to lose. Marton Fucsovics is a grinder who lacks the offense to separate himself from the pack, but he’s fast enough and solid enough to keep Dimitrov out there for a while. I don’t expect Grigor to panic here though, so Dimitrov in 3-4 feels comfortable.

Ofner vs Kokkinakis

Thanasi Kokkinakis can be a first round hero here, and it’ll be a good win if he can. Ofner lost a surprising match to Carballes Baena, but he’s had a much better time on tour recently than Kokkinakis. Thanasi has just lost to Lajovic, and I would expect consistency and gas-tank to be the questions here. His offense can play even with and apply pressure to Ofner, but Ofner can go into machine-mode at times and he’s a lot more consistent on the backhand wing. The tasks are simple here. For TK, keep the points short. For Ofner, make it a backhand exchange and extend rallies. It’ll be interesting to see who can keep control of this. My thought is that Ofner is just a bit better prepared. Ofner in 5.

Marterer vs Borges

Borges has been involved in some marathons, but crossing the finish line has eluded him. Marterer has been stuck just off tour for as long as I can remember, but when he does have the opportunity, he seems to have the goods. I think Nuno’s serve will be under a bit of pressure here, but it’ll be hard for either player to really win quickly. Marterer being lefty and having big power makes me think he can get off to an early lead, and Borges’ recent history of losing close matches is probably making it hard for me to see him winning. Marterer in 4-5.

Lestienne vs Davidovich-Fokina

Lestienne is a fantastic skill player, but ADF should be able to deal with that since he’s excellent in the frontcourt. The scoreline in an ADF Lestienne match is likely to be wild, but Fokina should be able to win this in 3-4.

Auger-Alliassime vs Thiem

Lol. It feels like neither of these players are really that interested in winning. Felix has whatever Shapo has, and seems to be just going through the motions out there, despite also playing impatiently. He does have a poor backhand, but his serve-forehand combo is good enough to win on tour and he just isn’t getting it done. Thiem has made progress since his return to the tour, but he has seemed more focused on developing his new forehand and working on his game for the future than he has on winning matches right now. Still, this has all the makings of an exciting match. Felix seems slightly more suited to the conditions, but he is Felix. Thiem could win the backhand exchanges, but is he totally committed to grinding out a win? Messy but exciting match. FAA in 4.

Muller vs Grenier

Grenier pulled off upset after upset in the qualifying, ending his run by besting Cressy and Perricard in three. To me, that puts him even against Arthur Muller. Muller has been playing excellent lately, but Grenier is a servebot and your baseline quality just fades in importance when someone is scoring points easily. Muller is supposed to win here, but it really feels like Grenier winning so many matches he wasn’t projected to matters a bit. Someone in 5.

Kypson vs Ruusuvuori

Patrick Kypson is a name to watch this year. He has a springy game and a good serve. Can he beat Ruusuvuori? Probably not. Ruus has found himself early this year, defeating Khachanov and playing some good ball in the first week. I think he’s a bit too solid for Kypson, but it could take 4 sets. Ruusuvuori in 3-4.

Atmane vs Medvedev

Atmane played great in qualifying, but this is no reward except for getting to play a huge name on a big stage. Medvedev in 4. I wanted to say 3 but Atmane has a pretty consistent offense and a solid serve and I think he’ll play well for the first two sets. Medvedev hasn’t been playing much so it could be a slow start.

Zverev vs Koepfer

Koepfer is playing well, but everything good he does plays into Zverev’s strengths. Zverev is a pusher and a servebot, and Koepfer extends rallies and wins behind his legs. It should take a while, but Zverev should sadly win.

Kwon vs Klein

Kwon manages to play in every major, but seems to never be playing tennis outside of them. Injuries have plagued him, and it’s a shame because he’s a top 30 talent when he’s active. Klein has a good chance to win here. He wouldn’t beat the good Kwon, but there’s likely to be some rust here and since he didn’t play any warmup matches, I’m not entirely sure he isn’t just picking up a check here. Klein in 3-4.

McCabe vs Michelsen

Michelsen hasn’t been living up to the hype lately, but there’s naturally going to be a lull after such a great first season. A loss to Borges last week was a bit of a surprise, but he has a pretty winnable first round here. McCabe is a talented junior prospect, but Alex is a bit more consistent and experienced at this stage, and his serve is a little bigger. It’ll be tough to navigate the home crowd without his best tennis, but Michelsen should win in 4.

Lehecka vs Zapata Miralles

I’m a big fan of Lehecka’s game and I think his ceiling is very high, so him winning matches this week is a very welcome thing. Zapata Miralles is generally a threat to the bad Lehecka, but the good one should be a bit too sharp for him. Lehecka in 3.

Norrie vs Varillas

Norrie should dominate this early. With Varillas, the question is always when he finds his rhythm. He can be a very tough out once he stops missing, but I think Norrie has shown hints early this season that the 2023 slump is in the past. Norrie in 3.

Lajovic vs Zeppieri

Watching Dzumhur mumble to his box was my first sign that Zeppieri was playing well, and him qualifying easily was my second. The tricky offensive lefty can really play well at times, and Lajovic will have his hands full here. I don’t think Zeppieri can win this in straights, and a marathon may favor Lajovic. Zeppieri is serving better, but Lajovic can hit a really solid level and he moves the ball effortlessly when he does. Zeppieri needs to win this quick, so if Lajovic either of the first two sets I’d expect him to win the match. Lajovic in 4-5.

Purcell vs Valkusz

Watching Valkusz against Comesana, he seemed completely out of sorts. Unforced errors and frustration were on display. I tuned out, and he won. The next day he was expected to lose to Vavassori, who had been rolling everyone he played in qualifying. Valkusz won easily. Valkusz has a good serve and easy power off both wings. When he’s on, it’s dangerous. Purcell and him is a servers battle that I think Purcell should win, but it’s really hard to write Valkusz off a this point. Purcell in 4 or Valkusz Australian Open title.

Ramos vs Ruud

Casper Ruud seems to have found a little bit of his game on hardcourt again. This is a welcome addition to the draw, and this is a very safe section of the draw too with Norrie the other imminent seed. He should beat Ramos fairly easily, and if he doesn’t, then Norrie will advance fairly easily. Ruud in 3-4.

Paul vs Barrere

Tommy Paul is a regular in the later rounds at majors, but this is a tough draw. He has a rematch against Draper in round two, and he just lost to Jack a week ago. Barrere can be trouble, but he’s off to a slow start this year and Tommy has more matches under his belt. Paul in 4.

Giron vs Draper

Physical issues are probably the only thing that can keep Draper from winning this match. He played a handful of matches already this season and seemed okay, but Giron is very quick and he should extend this. Giron also doesn’t end points quickly himself since he plays mainly behind his forehand and doesn’t hit through the court with it, preferring the inside-out fh as his main shot. Could be tough, but if Jack is healthy, Draper in 4.

Kecmanovic vs Watanuki

Miomir Kecmanovi is always projected to win, but he still makes rally-ball errors that cost him matches. He should beat Watanuki here, but Yosuke tends to get better as a match goes on so the classic Kecmanovic letdown here could be costly. Not sure what to expect, but Kecmanovic in 5 seems doable even if he does implode.

Hijikata vs Strufff

Power vs slightly less power. It feels like Hijikata will have to weather some storms to win this one, but he’s getting pretty good at that. I think Struff plays at a pace Hijikata prefers, but if his first serve is landing then he’ll have the lead in this. Expecting a long match where Hijikata proves a tiny bit more consistent. Hijikata in 5.

Bublik vs Nagal

Surprise hardcourt qualifer Sumit Nagal is into a good but bad spot in the draw. He’s playing decent, and Bublik can be a bit careless at times. It’s ideal for a grinder like Nagal, but I think given Bublik’s cat and mouse triumph against Musetti that he’ll be able to overcome Nagal. Just a case of bad timing as the good and motivated Bublik seems to have arrived. Bublik in 3-4.

McDonald vs Shang

I like Shang here. McDonald’s backhand is his much weaker wing and he hasn’t got a lot to be confident about. Shang is solid off both wings and has proven very willing to force the issue on offense. I wouldn’t expect it to be a simple win for Shang but I think he’s just a bit more complete as a player and being lefty is a big help when your opponent’s backhand can falter. Shang in 4-5.

Evans vs Sonego

Two great players here who could both use a win. Evans beat Hijikata last week and lost to Bublik in a third, which is the first signs of life he’s shown since last August. Sonego beat Hanfmann in three before losing to Korda. Neither player is looking great, but Sonego has won their two previous meetings so he’s probably the slight favorite. Really hard to see a big difference between the two players, and neither have been that good for the past few months. Sonego in 4.

Gasquet vs Alcaraz

Just when Gasquet is finally free of Nadal, here is a new guy he cannot beat. Gasquet will be a tricky warmup for Alcaraz, but his footspeed is not what it used to be and Carlos should finish this fairly comfortably. Alcaraz in 3-4. Last season (post Wimbledon) Alcaraz was really playing free and going for whatever he felt like going for, and it cost him a bunch of sets in the North American swing. It’ll be interesting to see the level of focus he has in the early rounds here, as a bit more discipline makes him near impossible to beat.