2024 Australian Open Men's Round Four

Djokovic vs Mannarino

Imagine not playing since 2018 and when you meet again, you’re both at the top of your games. That’s the case for Djokovic and Mannarino here. It is unreal how well their careers are going considering their ages, and this is probably going to be a very enjoyable match. Djokovic was solid against Etcheverry and the stylistic matchup did prove to be favorable for Novak. He’ll have another good situation here, as Mannarino tends to isolate his opponent’s backhand and Djokovic is more solid on that wing than Mannarino can probably deal with. Djokovic is always a great server, and I just don’t see a great way for Mannarino to score on him here. Since he’s a very good competitor, Mannarino will likely keep the scorelines close in a few sets, but it’ll be very uphill.

Against Shelton, Mannarino’s plan was just to outlast, and it worked. Shelton seemed in control at times, but the points he won were all highlight reel stuff and he didn’t seem to be able to escape from neutral for a lot of this match. Supplying all the offense is difficult and Mannarino/Norrie have carved out some good wins in this round by making it clear they’re not going to miss. This is the part of the tournament where Djokovic’s injury/illness/condition woes start to fade from prominence, and you scroll forward in the draw but can’t really find much competition for him. Mannarino here and Fritz/Tsitsipas waiting means he might be very fresh for the semifinals with Sinner. Scary times. Djokovic in 3-4. I say 4 because I don’t think he’ll go to his highest level here if he doesn’t need to. Mannarino plays controlled tennis and I think Djokovic will do the same and rely on his skill to win.

Fritz vs Tsitsipas

Good matchup here. Fritz was just a bit too physically strong for Marozsan in round three. (whoops I’ve been spelling his name wrong I thought it was sz). Tsitsipas leads the h2h but I think these players are in very different form right now from their previous meetings. Tsitsipas has been struggling to refind his form and is showing hints that he’s playing well again. Fritz had his best year every last year and opened up this tournament playing very well. This should be the closest to an even contest that we’ve seen in their brief history against each other, and I think there’s a slight edge to Fritz.

Fritz serves as well as Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas is definitely better on the forehand, but Fritz will be able to score as well. It’s the backhand exchanges where I think Taylor has a good chance. He doesn’t do anything with his backhand, but the mechanics are solid and if they trade in a neutral rally, I think Tsitsipas is more likely to leave one short or make a random error. In a long match, Tsitsipas’s physical strength could prove to be a big factor, but he dropped sets to Bergs and Thompson and those are like lower-level versions of Fritz. Not a ton of technical analysis here because we know the story. Tsitsipas has backhand issues but he’s a monster on his forehand wing. If he can impose himself, he can win, but Fritz’s offense is very capable so I don’t think there’s a huge edge in either direction. Feels like Fritz is just at a slightly higher level so far. Fritz in 4 or Tsitsipas in 5. I don’t see Fritz losing unless the edge is taken way off his game via fatigue.

Sinner vs Khachanov

This feels like an easy one. Sinner has been efficient and business-like in his early rounds, and the opposition isn’t exactly simple. Khachanov has grinded his way through, and he played very well against Machac. It’s always interesting to see the lower tier guys play the gatekeepers on tour. Machac was dictating, but the ball kept coming back. It feels like the same crisp offense that he played earlier was still there, but Khachanov just hits a heavier ball and suddenly Machac had to swing big on every shot. The result was errors, and he lost faith in his backhand during the match in a major way. Khachanov just kinda big brothered him, and it’s something I don’t think he can do against Sinner.

Sinner is better from the baseline than Karen, and can create offense well from neutral rallies. Doing this without error feels like a new thing for him, and this is the first big test of his current level. He looks nearly unplayable, and I think Khachanov is still a little bit too predictable to win this match. He’ll drag things out in the same way and he serves big enough to hang in, but Sinner is probably going to be the one dictating rallies and he should wrap this up in 4.

De Minaur vs Rublev

Grumble. I really don’t know what to expect here. Rublev and De Minaur both dominated their last two rounds. They’ve both notched wins against each other in the past (Rublev winning the most recent one in Paris), and they’re both playing great tennis. De Minaur will have the crowd on his side which can help if Rublev gets upset during the match, but Rublev getting upset doesn’t seem to overwhelm his ability to play tennis. The one thing in the past that ADM struggled against was heavy power, because his flat technique can sometimes break down against a certain weight of shot. This Alex seems different though, and recent results seem to indicate he’s reached a new level.

Does De Minaur’s new level override his loss in Paris? I suspect so, but would De Minaur have straight setted Korda? Unfortunately, probably. There is not a lot to separate these two. In general, Rublev’s backhand is much better but Alex has been going down the line efficiently with his which adds a wrinkle since Rublev is not the best at rerouting. Should be a 5 setter basically, and I think De Minaur will have a little bit more energy at the end with the crowd behind him and Rublev supplying all the pace. De Minaur in 5.

Cazaux vs Hurkacz

Ah good, an easy one. I’m not going to go look at his junior records, because Cazaux has apparently beaten everyone and I don’t want to find out he beat me also. Cazaux played solid against Griekspoor, and Griekspoor helped. He hit a number of backhands into the net, and outlasting Cazaux’s hot streak didn’t work as it had against Safiullin because Cazaux’s level never dropped. He looks scary good. I checked in on Hurkacz a few times because I hoped he was playing poorly. Not because I want him to, but it would make calling Cazaux the winner simple. As it stands, it really isn’t. Hurkacz served incredibly well, and he applied constant pressure to Humbert’s serve with good returning.

This feels like a spot where Cazaux could win in the 2/3 format, but over a long match I don’t know where his edge is. He can certainly hold serve, but Hurkacz can also. It’s really hard to say whose level will drop first, but Cazaux has gotten the benefit of a handful of players not at their best/whom he had had success against in the juniors. Griekspoor struggled during the match, Djere appeared not 100%, and Ruud shouted Ja in Rune’s face a few years ago. Cazaux Hurkacz will be closer than Humbert, so it gets even trickier. Cazaux vs Humbert right now would feel dead even, but Arthur’s offensive play right now is more effective against Hurkacz because he’s not as quick around the court as Humbert. Really tough to call here, but I think Hurkacz’s serving has entered into Isner territory. He’s very consistent with his delivery, and it’s at a minimum good enough to get him to a 5th set against most anyone. Add in that he’s playing well from the baseline and has a ton of skill, and this might be the end of the road for Cazaux. This will probably be the most high quality match of the fourth round, and if Hurkacz can shut down Cazaux’s offense (I don’t think he can) it’ll be scary for the rest of the draw, especially since Medvedev is next and he’s not at his best. Hurkacz in 5.

Borges! vs Medvedev

Nunooooooooo. The crowd was going wild with chants of Nuno. Children were throwing their Nuno shaped snack crackers into the air. The umpire had worn his Nuno underpants. Everything was primed for the great Nuno Borges to win. In truth, this was not his match to win. Dimitrov seemed content to rally with Borges, and I guess he felt he would outlast him. Grigor won the first, so that plan probably felt good. Unfortunately, he didn’t really make Borges move. Grigor stayed relatively safe, and Borges was basically played into form. He lost the first set tiebreaker by trying to create based on the moment (scoreboard pressure), but once he settled in and started to press small edges rather than look to hit winners, he was in control of the match. Dimitrov played fine, but the occasional error started to give him trouble. When you’re playing passively and then throw in a big hit, the ball sailing long can really make you hesitant to hit to small targets the next time, and it was pretty clear that the court had started to get small for Grigor.

I’ve been a fan of Borges’ game for a while, and he reminds me of a funkytown mini-Sampras, so this is a great result for him. He’s had two seasons of sort of push-mode tennis which saw him losing a bunch of close matches, and I think the more secure his place on tour is, the more he’ll open up his game. He has a good backhand inside out, and his off-forehand down the line has some good zip on it. For the next round, I think he’s sunk. I don’t see how he scores on Medvedev, and it reminds me of the Frech/Gauff matchup where a break lead for Borges doesn’t really guarantee that he gets the set, but one for Medvedev does. Medvedev plays passive like Dimitrov, but he makes way fewer errors and keeps the ball lower over the net. He also has an extremely effective serve. Borges has some good pop on his serve for his height, but I don’t see him getting many past Med here which spells a long day.

Medvedev had a pretty simple task against FAA last round. He just needed to keep the ball in and wait for errors. He did, and it worked. Felix needs a coach, or perhaps he has a long-term strategy in mind and these results are okay. Medvedev is obviously an unwinnable match for him, but he has all the tools to make it a winnable match, so for fans we will continue to scratch our head and hope. Anyway, Medvedev in 3-4.

Zverev vs Norrie

A lot of people were upset with Ruud, but I thought he played well. He was very clutch in big moments, but Norrie just wasn’t missing. I felt that Ruud went to Norrie’s backhand a little too often in big moments. Yes he’s not going to necessarily hurt you from there because he doens’t hit that hard, but Norrie is almost automatic at redirecting that ball on a sharp angle cross-court. If you’re on offense, you want to go at Norrie’s forehand because that’s where he shanks the ball more and that’s the wing he can lose confidence in. Even if he decelerates on his backhand, he’s just guiding the ball so he won’t miss. If he decelerates on his forehand, he basically stays in that mode until he finally wins a point. I thought Ruud served well, defended well, and had his chances, but Norrie maintained a better level on the day. Norrie’s footwork let him take the ball on the rise almost all the time, and he kept Ruud moving.

Norrie has never beaten Zverev, but he has never beaten Ruud either. Zverev straight setted Alex Michelsen, and played well, but this is a much different matchup. Where I think Norrie struggles against Zverev are two areas : returning serve and breaking down Zverev’s backhand. Zverev doesn’t do anything with his backhand except hit it cross-court. It’s hit hard, and he doesn’t miss. If you give him a bunch of swings, he starts hitting harder. On serve, Zverev gets the ball bouncing very high, and Norrie’s backhand technique does not lend itself to easily returning when the ball gets up above his waist. It isn’t that he can’t, but it has to be measured well and it generally isn’t going to clear the court when you’re hitting with no spin and aiming downward.

The level that Norrie played against Ruud is good enough to beat Zverev. We’ve seen Zverev struggle against much lower tier players and he can get passive enough to lose. This feels like the ATP version of Sabalenka Kasatkina, where the powerful offense is clearly primed to implode but just seems to keep winning based off weight of shot. Unfortunately, Zverev is a lot better than Ruud on hardcourt, and this might be too much for Norrie. I still expect it to be close though because Norrie is looking very effective on these courts. Zverev probably in 4-5.

Kecmanovic vs Alcaraz

Tommy Paul had a match point in the fourth, and when he didn’t convert, he honored the samurai code and did not play in the fifth. 6-0 in the fifth is painful, and enduring that while thinking about the match point you had is even worse. He had that far off look in his eye at times, and Kecmanovic true to form had no look in his eye. He gets hyped out there, but from point to point he remains expressionless. The ball comes, he whacks it. I’m really impressed not just as his consistency this week but also at the pace he’s hitting with. Clean winners were on display quite often and it should be a good contest against Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz was cruising against Shang and got a retirement in the third. I think him and Kecmanovic will be much closer, but Alcaraz is just really good at tennis. It’s easy to see him struggle at a minor hardcourt event and think he’s beatable, but if he’s focused on the match there isn’t a great way to score on him, and if you give him time he can wear you down or dropshot you equally well. For Kecmanovic, there’s no strategy change here. He’s hitting really well from the baseline and he’s serving well. Whether that works against Alcaraz will be seen fairly early. If Alcaraz is just hitting everything back and winning the baseline exchanges, there is zero hope for Miomir. If Alcaraz is making some errors and letting Kecmanovic dictate, this could take 4-5 sets. I know it’s against the rules to question the top players, but this is a tricky test and a huge step up from his first few opponents. If he were playing Tommy Paul, we’d likely expect it to take 4 sets minimum and this is a guy who just outplayed Tommy Paul. Alcaraz in 4.