2024 Australian Open Men's Finals

Sinner vs Medvedev

The clock strikes 6:00AM. An alarm goes off, but Jannik Sinner is already awake. He has been up since 5am playing with his pet alligator Rigoberto. Sinner throws the ball to Rigoberto for him to catch it. Rigoberto does not react. It is his favorite game. “Time for breakfast Jannik,” says his coach groggily, but Jannik is way ahead of them. Him and Rigoberto split a few salmon earlier. He is ready to go. He is ready to win the Australian Open.

Jannik’s run this week has been nothing short of meteroric. The manner in which he has beaten his opponents has completely changed people’s image of him, and at the start of the season it means it will be hard for his reputation to lose that luster. Even if people scroll their brain back to see how he was last season, the first data point is him splitting matches with Djokovic at the World Tour Finals, and recency bias is real, so Jannik has just vaulted himself into the conversation for every major this year. It’s well-deserved. He’s had stamina issues in the past, but there was never a time that the criticism was about his game.

Since Sinner got on tour, he has aimed high with his shot selection and has not backed off from fast exchanges at the baseline. Some overzealous errors hindered some of his early results, but Jannik has shown a great understanding of the game from a very early age. When he’s in trouble, or has shot himself into trouble, he has a second gear to go to. Jannik has a lockdown mode where the players he has donated sets to cannot generally hang on. Finding Sinner down a set or two in a major is not uncommon territory, but this fortnight he has not done that. After showing hints of a very high level of tennis last year, he has become a real problem for the tour.

Beating Baez in straight sets is not impossible, but Sebastian will dig in and make life miserable from the baseline for as long as it takes once he goes down in the scoreline. Khachanov wasn’t at his most consistent this week, but he played really well and threatened to break and snag 2 of the 3 sets they played. Rublev had just beaten De Minaur, and can play anyone close on hardcourt. Sinner beating all these guys in straight sets isn’t impossible, but doing so in a row is so refreshing. It’s the type of skillful and intelligent tennis we haven’t seen a lot of since the golden age of the big 4 (I’d include peak Thiem and Medvedev though).

Sinner hits the ball extremely clean, defends well, and the new wrinkle to his game is knowing when to ease off the power and just hit the court. Early on against Djokovic, Sinner showed remarkable poise. He was exchanging well, but he didn’t look frantic to escape rallies. Due to some very uncharacteristic Djokovic errors, this paid off big time. Djokovic was looking to hit a shot or two to get going, but he was just plain off on most of his attempts. Some of that can be attributed to how consistent Sinner played, but Djokovic was not at his best this tournament and it seemed that he had an actual ceiling of output here.

All credit to Sinner, he does the things that you need to in order to beat Novak. His backhand is extremely consistent and he goes down the line often enough to keep Djokovic honest. Overall, Djokovic was the one whose backhand clipped the tape more during neutral rallies, and winning these free points makes a big difference on the match and on the mental state of the opponent. When you’ve been missing things that should be automatic, there is a real tendency to decelerate and clench on future swings, which leads to the same error you’re trying to avoid.
The best part of Sinner’s game is how well he defends to his forehand side. He was sent way off court in this match a number of times, and the pace and depth that he generated with his forehand are world-class. He got himself out of trouble with this constantly, and Novak was really only able to guide the ball to the ad side of the court in these spots due to Sinner’s depth.

The last thing I’ll mention is how well Sinner served. Djokovic is one of the best returners in the game. To beat him, you need to hit timely spot serves on big points. Sinner did this for three and a half hours. He was at 58% for the match, but he faced 0 break points. 0 break points in a grand slam match against Djokovic is unheard of. Even sitting on my couch watching my serve somehow gets broken by Djokovic. Novak was not himself this week, but it coincided with Sinner finding a new tier of tennis.

I think we all have worried about tennis at times during the past few seasons. There are many deserved champions on tour, but the last era had treated us not only to great statistics, but also a quality of tennis that was brand new and top tier. It feels for the first time that that might continue. Sinner’s performance this week has been a joy to watch, even if the outcomes are assured. We always knew the big 3-4 would win their early matches, but we still tuned in because it was remarkable to watch them play. This is what we look for in sport. The outcomes are exciting, but we want to watch great skill on display.

As the new gen realizes expectations, it’s only going to drive the level up as it triggers their closest competitors and rivals to step their level up. A perfect example is what happened with Medvedev. He had been sort of pedestrian this event, almost sleepwalking through while simultaneously rushing through it. Zverev playing so well spelled Daniil’s doom initially, but by the 4th and 5th set it brought a level of tenacious and creative tennis out of Daniil that we have not seen in a while. He also suddenly found his serve, and despite the baseline rallies being the ultimate decider, he was able to match Zverev’s serving as far as effectiveness in the last two sets. As long as there are challenges and these guys have to earn their way to the next round, the level will continue to rise. It’s good stuff, and I’m optimistic. But it’s 6:00am again, so let’s check in on Medvedev.

The clock strikes 6:00AM. No alarm clock goes off. “Good try,” mutters Medvedev to a pile of smashed clocks in the corner of his hotel room. Goblins go flying as he storms through the village. He is triumphant. “Have you been up all night playing PS5?” asks his coach Baldur. “Don’t worry, Baldur, I gonna save your village next” says Medvedev, without looking away from the tv screen. “I told you stop calling me that,” says Gilles. Reality begins to reshape. “What day is it?” asks Daniil. “It’s the finals, Daniil, we need to go and practice” says Gilles. “Wrong answer, today is the day of doom for goblins” corrects Medvedev. He is triumphant. He has the Moon sword. He is ready to win the Australian Open.

The scariest thing about the semifinals for me was watching Zverev play tennis. I had picked Sinner to win this event pretty early, and after he beat Djokovic I was starting to breathe easy. Obviously, it’s not about me, but scouting his opponent made me very uneasy because of how well Zverev was playing. It isn’t that he is particularly unbeatable, but the points he scores are not opponent dependent. When he serves well and comes to net, there is really nothing you can do. Taking the racquet out of the opponent’s hand means the opponent doesn’t matter, and the prospect of Sinner reaching a whole new level and then winding up in a servebot style match was a bit daunting. Luckily, Medvedev woke up.

I don’t think there is anyone else on tour who could do what Medvedev did in the last few sets. He was everywhere and he didn’t miss on defense. The sheer amount of balls that he put back was unreal, and in between all the defending he found instant offense when he had an opening. It was his unique skill-set on display, and Zverev was at a level that was nearly unplayable so it was even more incredible to watch. Zverev was not only serving well, he was on the front foot during baseline exchanges and was hitting the ball extremely hard. Most of his backhands slid when he went crosscourt. His forehand was sharp and well varied. He barely missed during these exchanges and his backhand down the line was hit with pace and depth throughout the match. Even in the 4th and 5th when it felt like Medvedev had turned the tide, Zverev still served 82 and 84% first serves. There was a regression though. Zverev began to tire, and he started to make some unforced errors.

It will hurt to lose in the manner that he did, because the points he lost to get broken were all simple putaways. He had balls in the frontcourt, and he just missed. A forehand in the net, a few forehand volleys where he tries to overhand tap the ball rather than use a traditional technique, and the match was over. The match wasn’t over, but the regression was mental here so it was. When it finally became clear that things were not going his way nonstop anymore, he started to get upset. He folded. The ponytail had not made him a different person, and he was not going to make the finals. It is very understandable to have this reaction, but it felt a lot like the old Zverev who would turn to his box and complain rather than dig in when things get tough. Yes, his legs went and this caused the unforced errors. Yes, Medvedev found his best tennis, but it was 3-2 in the 5th, not 6-4, 6-2, 4-0 in the third. He had some time left to dig in, but he let himself get flustered. It’s a lesson to learn, but I won’t begrudge him the frustration because it felt a lot like Medvedev’s US Open loss to Nadal, or Musetti’s French Open loss to Djokovic. He had it, but there was a hole in his pocket. Mentally, you’re starting to go “omg I’m actually gonna win?” and then your heart sinks as you notice octopus arms around your waist. In any event, goodbye ponytail Zverev. You were not a good meme.

The main event is interesting because these two are very familiar with each other. Medvedev and Sinner have played 9 times already on tour, but despite leading 6-3, Medvedev has lost the last 3. I think that trend continues, but it feels that way largely because of the nature of the Zverev match. Sinner beat Novak Djokovic, but it felt like a lighter contest. Medvedev won in 4 and a half hours, but it was not a normal 4.5. Making the heroic comeback from 2 sets down takes not only a bunch of physical work, it also is draining mentally. Your body is basically maxed on adrenaline after that, and the late finish at night also means he gets significantly less recovery time than Sinner who had the day match. It’s tricky to guess exactly how tired someone will be when they’ve had a day of rest between each round, but Sinner feels like he’s played a lot less tennis here and with less wear and tear on his body overall.

For me, the swing production is what gives Daniil a little trouble against big hitters. He thrives on earning unforced errors and outlasting his opponents, but since Sinner hits with a lot of topspin his average rally shot is more likely to cause an error. He can hit bigger when fatigue sets in without risking errors also because shape helps a lot in avoiding the net. I like Sinner in the forehand exchanges, and I think Medvedev is likely to wind up making a lot of squash gets and relinquishing control. Sinner has been efficient with his setups this week, so I think this is a problem for Med. The serving is also sitting in Sinner’s favor. Medvedev has a great delivery, but he just hit 150+ serves against Zverev, and there wasn’t a point in the match when he could take it easy. He thrived late on serving wide to a tired Zverev, but I don’t think we’ll see Sinner’s physical level dip like that, so the 5th set numbers can kind of be discounted. The pitchcount is an issue in baseball, and I imagine we’ll see Medvedev’s shoulder taped up in this one, or some initial soreness.

A day of rest and adrenaline in the moment solve a lot of problems, and I think Daniil will play well, but one guy has more reserves and can press a little more without the possibility of injury/fatigue. Overall, this looks like Sinner’s first major. He’s been the best player this week, he’s had the quickest road, and I am a big fan of Darren Cahill’s coaching. I’m expecting Sinner to get off to an early lead, and for his baseline prowess and composure to make him a bit better than even in the contest even if Medvedev steps things up or locks down on defense. Sinner can score even if you don’t want him to, and it just feels like circumstances are lining up for him to win. Sinner in 3-4.