2023 Wimbledon Women's Semifinals 🐢

Svitolina vs Vondrousova

So far in this draw, Svitolina has beaten players with a combined 14 majors (7 Williams, 1 Kenin, 2 Azarenka, 4 Swiatek). Her level has risen every round, and in the quarterfinals she beat the #1 seed in a deciding set, something that has been nearly impossible for players on tour. It was funny to see the roles switch a bit in this match. Svitolina was serving well and mixing up her play with dropshots and aggressive forehands, and Swiatek stuck largely to crosscourt patterns and was on the defensive. It always feels like the great champions are going to turn it up in the big moments, but grass seems to still cause some slight issues for Iga’s forehand. A lot of her inside out forehands caught the net, but part of this is a result of Svitolina’s speed. Fast players make you go bigger, and often this is a last minute shift as you see them getting to the position before you’re done executing the shot. In any event, it was a good Wimbledon for Swiatek, and good progress on a surface that she wasn’t initially expected to solve.

Twice Svitolina was down a break in the first set, but she managed to get it back. It’s generally a bad sign when a defensive player is able to rebreak, but it may be time to revisit that label for Svitolina on grass. She’s serving extremely well in big moments, particularly down the T from the duece side, and she’s staying on the front foot after returns. It’s somewhat rare to see a player who goes big after the return and misses, and does so again the next point but converts. It’s that old tour experience playing against the greats like Serena and Halep and The Woz and Svitolina may be finding her best tennis at the right time. The players left are solid but they aren’t automatic performers or the paper and real tigers that used to gatekeep the big titles. Svitolina has a shot.

Vondrousova was down 4-1 in the deciding set, but she managed to hold Pegula off from a big semifinal. Marketa hit some really nice serves with the roof closed, and it feels like her game isn’t entirely mapped out, but she has all the skill to win a match anyway. Despite Vondrousova being relatively young, her and Svitolina have already played 5 times. Svitolina won the early ones, which is not so surprising, and Vondrousova won the last two. Those were way back in 2020 and 2021 though, in the beforetimes, in the long long ago. Dinosaurs and Federers roamed the Earth, and cats could be named pharaoh. Both players are playing incredible, but I’m leaning into something a bit more intangible here; Svitolina’s fight and fitness. She seems to be willing to give everything out there, but the output doesn’t diminish her quality. She’s not doubled over between rallies, and her ballstriking doesn’t suffer late in matches. If anything, she’s been finishing stronger in every match.

Vondrousova is a lot better defensively than Swiatek on grass, but doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard. It’s another match where I don’t think there are clear strategies or holes in either players game, and both are solid enough defensively that I don’t see a quick end to any sets. “This is going to be close” is not much of a prediction, but it feels like there are mostly arguments for both these players being at a high level, and in somewhat unfamiliar territory. Svitolina feels a bit sharper to me and her game requires less innovation and fewer choices, so I think she will win slightly more patches in this match. Should be absurdly good, and I don’t think the winner is a big underdog for the finals at all given they both are veritable walls. Svitolina in 3.

Jabeur vs Sabalenka

The first set of Jabeur vs Rybakina was an exercise in self-control. After trading two love breaks, these two played some exceptional tennis. Rybakina seemed content to drive the ball down the center of the court, and Jabeur had a difficult time creating angles from here and would fork over the occasional error. Both were serving well, but a late break by Jabeur set her up to serve for the set at 6-5. She was happy, and shared the moment with her box. After a few good returns by Rybakina saw her get break points, Jabeur upped her level (even had a set point), but Rybakina held her off and broke. At this point, Jabeur got frustrated.

It’s so wild to consider that if she had gotten to the tiebreak with two holds, Jabeur would likely have been fine. Instead, she began chirping at her box, and gave up an early mini-break. She got it back, but every error in the tiebreak saw a reaction from Jabeur. On the other side of the net, Rybakina’s stoic demeanor let her continue playing steady and she won the set. It’s natural for emotions to come in a big moment, but it’s how easily moved by this you are that often dictates your ability to win during difficult patches or wild momentum swings. I felt Jabeur was the better player in the first, but Rybakina was more professional. It might not affect your play to react like a Murray or a Kyrgios, but it gives your opponent a lot of focus and cuts down on their errors if they think you are potentially in a volatile state.

In the second, Jabeur’s offense seemed to click. Rybakina stayed in her somewhat conservative hitting patterns throughout this match, and after saving some early break points in the 2-2 game, Jabeur’s service games started to go very quickly. Ons got the late break for 6-4, and it seemed like the 3rd set would be an epic battle. Instead, Jabeur once again caught fire. Rybakina never really opened up, and once it was late in the scoreline, it wasn’t really safe to do so. Jabeur had all the momentum, and since her movement wasn’t being exposed, she didn’t make many errors. Overall, it was a good result for Jabeur, and her next round is slightly tougher but still potentially winnable.

I thought Sabalenka would be more defensively adept than Keys, but I did not expect the amount of backhand errors that Keys made. She doesn’t seem to be comfortable hitting a backhand slice, which is very useful against Sabalenka since she’s a taller player and keeping the ball low on grass can help. The slice also (when slightly altered towards a squash shot) is good when you’re late to the ball or want to save an extra step towards the sideline. I expect Jabeur will utilize this, but Keys mostly missed. She tried to take some shots down the line with her backhand, but it just wasn’t firing today. Overall, Sabalenka just outhit her, and Aryna maintained a very high level from start to finish so Keys never really had a chance. Madison notched a break in the second, and the Tennis Channel announcers began crowning her champion of the universe, but it just wasn’t her day, and Sabalenka reeled off 4 games in a row to close out the match. I thought Sabalenka’s service motion looked great in this match, and she was hitting a bit bigger (if that’s even possible) than usual when hitting T serves from the ad side.

Jabeur has the ability to play even with Sabalenka. This is likely to be another match where the early sets are decided by single breaks, but I think Sabalenka is playing at a tier above Rybakina in this event, and I’m not sure that Jabeur’s lateral movement is going to hold up. She’s very fit, but a slight step slow. This means she gets to the ball, but is very prone to going for something big rather than trying to reset the point. Keys proved that it’s pretty tough to redirect accurately due to Sabalenka’s power, and I think Aryna will win a good chunk of these baseline exchanges. Sabalenka is also serving huge here, and I think this match hinges on her ability to take care of her serve. Jabeur is a slightly smaller offense, but she’s shown this tournament that if she gets a lead the set is over. I think with control she can dismiss Sabalenka in a swing or two the same way she has to Kvitova and Rybakina, but there will be more pressure on these shots since Sabalenka moves better than both of those players. It’s hard to really count out last year’s finalist as these players have a tendency to thrive and enjoy extra motivation, but Sabalenka has been slightly better in this event and I think Jabeur will have a tough time weathering the storm as far as her composure is concerned. Sabalenka in 3.