2023 Wimbledon Women's Round One

Swiatek vs Zhu

Iga withdrew from the semifinals in Bad Homburg on Friday, citing food poisoning. This was not a surprising result, as most top players withdraw or crash out early from the tournaments preceding a major. They all offer some vague health issue, which seems like a courtesy to the event more than a real problem. I mention this because if she really had food poisoning, then her first round match against Lin Zhu could be very difficult. Prior to her withdrawal though, Swiatek was playing some great tennis, so she’s likely to roll here. Zhu is the right warmup match, because she puts a lot of balls in play but doesn’t really possess a weapon that can hurt Iga. Swiatek in 2.

Trevisan vs Sorribes Tormo

Trevisan has lost her last 5 matches on grass, and you’d have to go back to 2018 to find her last win on the surface, a solid triumph against Zanevska. Sorribes Tormo is similarly inefficient on grass, but she grabs a win or two each season. One of those wins is a three set victory against Trevisan in Bad Homburg in 2021. Martina is a much better player now, but she wins most of her matches by outlasting her opponent and defending, so grass is just not her best surface. Expecting a lot of momentum shifts here, but Tormo has more variation to her game and her slices/defending are good enough to hold off Trevisan. Tormo in 2-3.

Parry vs Dart

As I look around my room at all the Diane Parry posters, I’m reminded that all good things must come to an end. Every time Parry plays a match, I get excited for the best backhand on tour to finally take over. Sadly, I don’t always fish my wish. Parry’s skill has gotten her onto the tour and notched her a number of great wins, but the faster surfaces still remain an unsolved mystery for her. That makes this matchup a pretty big ask, since Harriet Dart is playing at home and has been on a tear on grass this past month. She’s 8-4 with wins against Kalinina, Marina, Zhang, and Burrage. On the flipside, our hometown hero Parry has only played one match, a loss to Lauren Davis. The one-handed backhand is beautiful, but we will probably only get to see it for one round here. Dart in 2.

Fruhvirtova L. vs Martic

Let’s talk evolution of junior players. I see a bit of chatter saying Linda is washed, and that Brenda is the real talent. This is wild to me. The path of a junior phenom seems to go a similar way a lot of the times, and Linda is well on her way to being a top tour player. When a junior first launches on tour and starts winning, all the momentum is in their favor. Imagine you’re a tour veteran, and you start losing to a junior. The crowd gets behind them, they don’t have any pressure or expectation, so they execute well. You go to plan B, which is to put the ball in uncomfortable positions, and look for errors. Unfortunately, they’ve been playing junior tennis, so moonballs and slices and pushing battles is something they’re adept at. You lose, but tennis isn’t a once a year event.
The more footage and information about a new tour player, the more coaches can prep. Junior talents get solved, and their patterns become predictable. You’ll often see the first few players to go against a Fruhvirtova or Raducanu look a step slow on defense. They can’t shade to the more likely target, because there’s no info available. As a result, they hang in the center of the court on defense and they wind up giving control of the rally to any new talent who can keep the ball in the lines. The next time though, they’re hanging in the more prevalent patterns and suddenly the junior seems like they’re trying to force stuff, or hit too big. Also, consider how the junior’s life has just changed. They are now travelling 100% of the time, and a good half-season or full season means they’re basically rich. Many of these players come from stable and financially wealthy backgrounds, but the first time you get personal wealth there is a moment when you finally get to breathe. You’re suddenly insulated from a bunch of issues and concerns, so it’s not surprising that they’d lose a little focus/motivation.

I still think Linda Fruhvirtova is a tremendous player. She hits very flat which is ideal for grass, and she beat Svitolina and Pera in straight sets which are wins around Martic’s level. Martic only played one event, but made the quarterfinals defeating Katie Boulter along the way. This is a good spot for Fruvirtova to get back on track, but Martic is the favorite heading in. Martic has been playing the same game for a long time and she’s been in decent form lately. Her backhand slice is very useful on grass and her forehand is a laser. Petra’s one issue is just her movement. If you can get her running she doesn’t recover well to center, so Linda will need to return aggressively and keep hitting to the open court as her main focus. Should be a good match. Martic in 3.

Linette vs Teichmann

Teichmann is one of the more puzzling players on tour. When she’s on, she’s a complete wall and seems to be able to send any match to a deciding set. When she’s off, she loses quickly and frequently, which feels odd for a defensive baseliner. This seems like a winnable match, because Linette has not been too sharp on grass. She does have a solid win against Gadecki, who’s been a real problem this season, but losses to Burrage and Zhu, and a three setter with Paolini are not inspiring stuff. Linette’s speed and endurance just aren’t as much use in the Wimbledon conditions, so I would expect a very close match with Teichmann being slightly more comfortable. Teichmann in 3.

Strycova vs Zanevska

Good spot for Strycova to land, but a tough one for me. Strycova is a grass-court specialist, but she’s well past her relevance on tour. She has one win, but it’s against Betova who’s not quite at tour-level yet. Calling a win for Zanevska isn’t ideal either, as the Belgian mostly wins on clay and just lost to Sara Errani. Their h2h shows one win for Strycova on clay, but it’s too many seasons ago to really matter. This is a Lopez vs Thompson situation, where either player could win or lose and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. Zanevska’s power and legs vs Strycova’s experience and skilled net-play. Tricky. Zanevska in 3.

Collins vs Grabher

Julia Grabher had a tremendous clay season, but her style isn’t well-suited to grass. Collins has been really inactive this season, likely dealing with some injury or health issues, but she’s still in the top 20 in tennis when she steps on the court. This should be a win for her simply because her offense is a tier above Grabher, but Julia is absurdly fit so Danielle will need to keep the ball in the court. Collins in 2-3.

Swan vs Bencic

Bencic is nursing a hip injury so she hasn’t been very active. Swan, on the other hand, has played 8 grass-court matches, including wins against Zhao (qualifier in this event), Maria (recent finalist in Gaiba). It’s a spot where Bencic’s level dictates the outcome. If she’s herself, she can win this. The -220 pricetag is towards the low end of her range though in a first round, and Swan has been competitive against the higher tier players she’s faced recently. It took a heroic effort from Avanesyan to beat Bencic, and I’m not sure that Swan has the same durability. Still, I expect this to be close and likely wind up in a third. If Bencic can win this in straights, I expect her to win a few more rounds here. Bencic in 3.

Kasatkina vs Dolehide

Kasatakina may have lost the title in Eastbourne, but she broke Keys’ momentum in the second set and should have sent that to a third. It was just good fortune and good execution in big moments from Keys that got her the title, as Kasatkina looked to be the better player late in the match. She’ll have her hands full here as Caroline Dolehide has a huge serve and a heavy forehand, but Kasatkina has proven adept at slowing the pace down and frustrating her opponent into errors. Barring fatigue, she should wrap this up in straights. Kasatkina in 2.

Burrage vs McNally

Burrage has had a nice grass-court swing, and this match is not out of her reach. McNally has a ton of skill and utilizes it well on grass, but she doesn’t really hit the ball hard. This means Burrage will have time to implement her game, and she has wins against Cornet, Frech, Linette, and Martincova which are right around the level necessary to beat McNally. This should be close, but McNally’s experience and defending are likely to give her a slight edge in the end. McNally in 3.

Podoroska vs Martincova

Martincova is starting to remind me of 2021 Vekic. I know she has the power and the game to win, but the results just aren’t coming. This match should be a relative reprieve for her, because Podoroska isn’t at her best on grass. Martincova likely will struggle at the finish line here, but her forehand is big enough to get a look at it. Martincova in 3.

Yuan vs Azarenka

Great run through qualifying for Yuan, but she’s drawn a player who is a rough matchup for her. Yuan overwhelms her opponents with pace and consistency, and Azarenka does this but at the top level of the tour. Aza hasn’t really been too active, so this could be close in the early-goings, but she should pull away since she has an edge in serving and reach. Azarenka in 2 close sets.

Mertens vs Hruncakova

This is tough to really analyze but I’ll give you the information available. Hruncakova is 0-4 against Mertens, but all those matches were quite some time ago. Mertens has the higher ceiling by far, but she withdrew with a lower back issue in S-Hertogenbosch and a hip issue in her last match against Pliskova. Hruncakova has just beaten Krueger and Tauson though, who I’d be expecting to only lose by a single break against Mertens. If Mertens is healthy, she should roll. If she isn’t, Hruncakova is putting the ball in the court with a remarkable consistency and we will likely see a subdued Mertens and I will try not to cry but I might a lil bit. Mertens in 2 or Hruncakova in 3.

Svtiolina vs Williams

More tricky stuff here. Venus Williams should be washed, but somehow she’s still ballin. She almost beat Naef (who is tour level right now), and defeated Giorgi before narrowly losing to Ostapenko. These are really good results and I’m excited to see Venus playing Svitolina on a surface that she doesn’t seem to have much consistency on. Her opening match this season involved her getting 2,0 from Linda Fruhvirtova so there is reason to believe that Venus can win here. I don’t quite understand how a player can protect their lack of lateral movement so well, but Venus will have a shot here if Svitolina can’t get it together. In my head, Svitolina should win this easily, but the recent play indicates Williams in 2.

Hunter vs Wang Xinyu

Storm Hunter is back! The coolest English-based name on tour! Exclamation! Points! Wins against Avanesyan and Hibino are really good stuff, and I expect her to keep it going against Wang. Wang has excellent power, but Hunter’s ability to extend rallies and her doubles prowess make grass a good spot for her to pull an upset. Hunter in 3.

Gauff vs Kenin

Always a little rough to have your comeback tour run into a top seed, but Kenin will be glad for the challenge. She had a good run through qualifying, including a good win in the finals against Taylor Townsend, who struggled with unforced errors a bit too much for me to really have a look at Kenin’s best level. I don’t think that she’s really consistent yet, and that gives Gauff all the chances she needs. Gauff can underperform at times, but her defense is top-tier and she serves a bit heavier than Kenin. Should be a close match at times, but I think Gauff will be a game better each set. Gauff in 2.

Pegula vs Davis

Two very similar players despite their swing production being different. Both are looking to outlast and frustrate their opponents, but Pegula hits much flatter and overall is at a higher tier than Davis. Should take a while, but Davis is unlikely to be able to hold serve as often as Pegula. Pegula in 2.

Bucsa vs Rakhimova

Bucsa is probably the pick here, but neither player is getting a big boost from the grass. Rakhimova has lost both her opening matches, and Bucsa managed to take a set off Osorio and defeated Saville. These indicate a slightly higher level, but her offensive nature is a little dangerous if Rakhimova settles into a groove. Bucsa in 2-3.

Osorio vs Cocciaretto

Interesting matchup. Since Cocciaretto has a big serve and good power, it might make sense for her to be the better player on grass, but the results are not really there and she hasn’t played many warmup events. Osorio has had middling results, but she’s been active and I think she’ll be a bit better here. Grass rewards offenses but it also rewards great athleticism and Camila has proven to be incredibly difficult to hit through. Osorio in 2.

Masarova vs Sherif

I really like Masarova in this matchup but she withdrew with a knee issue last week during her match against Navarro. This is a player who soundly beat Andreescu, so to have injury concerns here is kind of a bummer. Her serve was in a great rhythm and she was barely missing during baseline rallies. If she’s healthy, I like her in 2. The pickem price offered makes me worried that she’s not 100% yet though, in which case Sherif could outlast her. Still believing, but not sure. Masarova in 2.

Zheng vs Siniakova

Zheng had some good chances to get momentum against Pegula, but grass seems to remove her automatic nature. She makes a few more unforced errors, and her movement (which is just acceptable at the top level on hardcourt) seems a bit tentative. It spells trouble against Siniakova, who just found her best form this past week en route to a title in Bad Homburg. Sinaikova looked really comfortable out there, and when she had offensive opportunities her choices seemed natural and effective. She has big enough power to expose Zheng’s movement, and her doubles prowess gives her a little bit of an edge in the intangible rallies at net. Zheng still has a huge serve and great mechanics, so this will be close, but Siniakova should be slightly sharper. Siniakova in 3.

Tsurenko vs Liu

Liu’s flat hitting seems to make her pretty effective on grass, but she’s strictly a baseliner and Tsurenko just has more variation in her game. She’s also more consistent, so I’m guessing that Lesia will get through here, barring an injury issue (she takes many injury timeouts). Tsurenko in 2.

Parks vs Friedsam

This is one of those spots where I suspect I have to listen to the books. Parks leads the h2h 3-0. She’s ranked higher by ~40 spots. She seems to have better grass-court results, and a higher potential ceiling since she has a tremendous serve. This has been opened at a pickem though. This sounds alarm bells for me. I can picture Friedsam being more consistent than Parks, and Parks hasn’t really found her range on grass yet this season, but it just feels like Alycia is a bit better overall. Expecting Friedsam to win here, but not entirely sure why.

Bogdan vs Samsonova

Bogdan seems to be finding her form again, so this should be a good first-round test for Samsonova. Liudmila is a cross between Rybakina and Sabalenka, and fittingly she’s suffered the results of both. Strange wins from dominant positions are prevalent in her history, and she’s had some injury issues as well and is generally taped up in some way when she takes the court. When she’s on her game, she looks like the best player on tour. She moves well, has every single shot, and has huge power off both wings. It’s just a matter of tempering her offense enough to get across the finish line. Bogdan is probably a tough matchup for most players on tour, but Samsonova played well last week and should be one of the darkhorse candidates for the title here. Samsonova in 3.

Kudermetova vs Kanepi

Welcome back Kaia! It almost feels like you can’t have a major with Kanepi in the mix, but this is a tough opening round. Kudermetova made the finals in S-Hertogenbosch, and withdrew from Berlin with left hip soreness. She should be fine here, and although Kanepi leads the h2h 2-1, grass is a much different scenario. Kudermetova should be able to navigate this in straights. Kudermetova in 2.

Vondrousova vs Stearns

Oh good, more matchups I’m not entirely sure of. Peyton Stearns is my new favorite plucky adventurer, and watching her figure out the different surfaces on tour has been very enjoyable. Grass is usually the last holdout, and so I don’t expect a lot here. She lost to Fourlis in Berlin, and Vondrousova had a pretty good result there, besting Andreescu and Neimeier before losing to a red-hot Sakkari. This should be close but Vondrousova is likely the more consistent player. Vondrousova in 2.

Peterson vs Stephens

Sloane hasn’t played since Roland Garros, but Peterson is not that good on grass. Hard to really expect either to be dominant here, and it looks like Vekic will beat whomever wins. Stephens in 2-3.

Vekic vs Zhang

Shaui Zhang is just all out of sorts, and Donna Vekic is playing some great ball. Vekic in 2.

Bouzkova vs Waltert

“This is a tricky one,” typed the turtle for the 400th time. The WTA is blessed with depth at this point, but it makes it really tough when a strong qualifier plays a slumping veteran. Bouzkova is the sort of player that a talented junior usually can’t beat. She defends well, hits hard, and is genuinely focused on putting every ball in play. She’s 0-2 on grass though, and Simona Waltert has just won her last 4 matches in straight sets. Bouzkova would be her best win on tour, but a defensive baseliner in bad form can really post up some surprising losses. Waltert in 2 or Bouzkova in 3.

Kontaveit vs Stefanini

Kontaveit has decided to retire from the tour this season, and Wimbledon will be her last event. It’s pretty surprising given how high she rose in the ranks and how consistent of a performer she was. Wish her well of course, but this is a tough spot. Stefanini won her last qualifying match 11-9 in the third, but it was against Hsieh who really found some good form this past week. It was funny to see two two-handed forehands going at it, and they exchanged a number of breaks. If Stefanini is having the same trouble holding serve, Kontaveit should roll her, but I have a feeling that lack of matchplay is going to be a problem. Stefanini isn’t the most dominant offense, but she puts everything into play and she hits with good pace. If Kontaveit isn’t able to create, I could see her getting outlasted here and it’s hard to gauge how prepared/healthy she is since she hasn’t played any matches. Stefanini in 2.

Fernandez vs Baindl

I’m not really sure what Fernandez is doing wrong. She seems like the same player who constantly won matches on tour, but the results aren’t there. It’s possible that the depth of the tour is just making defensive counter-punchers less prominent, but it’s hard to really judge whether she’ll get back her old form. Baindl and Fernandez haven’t shown much this grass season, but Fernandez has a slightly bigger offense out there, and since her forte is using her speed and consistency to overwhelm her opponents, she’s likely to do well against a player who’s mostly pushmode at this point. Fernandez in 2-3.

Volynets vs Garcia

Volynets is having a pretty solid season, but this is a big step up. I don’t actually think Garcia is that effective on grass since her swings can get a bit glitchy, but her opponent is 0-4 on grass. Garcia in 2.

Jabeur vs Frech

This is another one where I have to ask how long are we going to blindly believe in Jabeur. When she wants to play, and is in a good headspace, she’s in the top 5 on tour. She made the finals here last year which is a great result, but this season she’s suffered some strugglebus losses. Giorgi and Niemeier are great, but they shouldn’t beat Jabeur if she’s comfortable on court. Frech is a tricky opener because she’s played 9 matches on grass already, including wins against Kartal, Zhu, Teichman, and Cirstea. Those are right around the level Jabeur has shown in her losses this season, so it’ll be interesting to see how Ons emerges. Expecting a wakeup call for her here. Jabeur in 3.

Bonaventure vs Bai

Bai is such a new name most sites don’t even have a photo of her up yet, and I’ll admit I’m not very familiar with her game. She was pretty darn solid in qualifying, and Bonaventure has lost to similar level players in recent matches (Zhao, Montgomery). I think the Bai train continues to roll and they better find some photos soon. Bai in 2.

Bondar vs Andreescu

Andreescu has awarded a few players some huge wins lately, including Masarova, but her overall level hasn’t been that bad. It’s just been inconsistency in the big moments, but here she should have a bit of breathing room. Bondar has a big serve and good power but she’s not the fastest, nor is she comfortable on grass. Losing, but being right in competitive matches is one of the best warmups for a major, so I’m expecting a decent run from Andreescu here. Andreescu in 2.

Bouzas Maneiro vs Kalinina

Spanish tennis is looking real good right now. Bouzas Maneiro and Bassols both made the main draw here on grass. These two are tearing it up and flying below the radar. With Kalinina not looking especially dominant on grass, this is a winnable match. Kalinina’s serve and groundstrokes are big enough to take the racquet out of anyone’s hand, but she needs time to produce them. Anhelina also struggles with consistency, as producing such creative and powerful offensive strokes requires a lot of focus. This shouldn’t be close but I expect it will be. Kalinina in 3.

Pliskova vs Stevanovic

Stevanovic had a bunch of solid wins in qualifying, beating Bassols Ribeiro and Mandlik. She doesn’t really have wins of the caliber that Pliskova represents, and Pliskova is 1-2 this season on grass but the losses were against Kvitova who was on fire, and Kasatkina who made the finals in Eastbourne. I expect the baseline rallies to be close but Pliskova’s serve is a big advantage. Pliskova in 2.

Zhao vs Korpatsch

Zhao and Korpatsch is a pretty close match on paper. Both are fairly consistent but don’t really have a huge serve. Tamara is likely the more experienced player, but I think the conditions favor Zhao a little more. Korpatsch taking Andreeva to a third was actually a surprise to me so I may not be giving her enough credit here, but I think this goes to Zhao in 3.

Sasnovich vs Parrizas-Diaz

Sasnovich isn’t having the greatest amount of success this season, but grass does lend itself to her stylish approach. She takes a very big swing on her backhand, but hits a flat ball and it’s effective here at Wimbledon. She has a lot of finesse in her game which can get her in trouble against big hitters, but Nuria doesn’t really crush the ball so she should be safe here. Despite Parrizas-Diaz hitting a pretty flat ball, she isn’t completely comfortable on grass. Sasnovich in 2.

Paolini vs Kvitova

Kvitova was playing incredible in Berlin, hoisting the title in the end. Paolini played her to a third set last year at this event, but this should be a bit different. Kvitova could actually win this title as there’s very little pressure, she’s fresh, and she’s serving great. Kvitova in 2.

Haddad Maia vs Putintseva

Haddad Maia won two titles last year on grass, but this year she’s suffered some early losses and withdrawals. Putintseva is dealing with a left calf issue, so Bella is likely the stronger player here in terms of experience and fitness. Haddad Maia in 2-3.

Cristian vs Bronzetti

Bronzetti doing well on grass is a tremendous result. She’s one of the hardest workers on tour and the pressure she applies has yielded great results even though she’s generally the underdog in her matches. Since Jacqueline Cristian is more of a hardcourt and clay specialist, Bronzetti’s form should carry her through here. Cristian’s top level can compete with anyone, but she hasn’t been that active on tour this season. Bronzetti in 2.

Cirstea vs Maria

The only first round you’re expected to win but really don’t want is Tatjana Maria. She just made the finals of a Challenger event, and she’s a player who slices nearly 100% of her shots. Considering Cirstea had an issue against Vondrousova once or twice because of a heavily sliced approach, this might be very close. Cirstea’s explosive offense can hit through anyone, but Maria gives you no pace to deal with. This will likely come down to Maria’s serving. If Cirstea is able to get control on the returns, she can break serve enough to win. If not, it’ll be really difficult to hold serve since Maria is basically keeping you stuck out there and letting you more or less punch yourself out. I’m leaning into the veteran winning this as she’s shown lower level results but more promising play. Maria in 3.

Minnen vs Ostapenko

My favorite thing about this is that Ostapenko’s aggressive play doesn’t really change anything for Minnen, since she has a pretty huge serve and goes hyper aggressive as well during the rally. Slight hopes for Greetje because Ostapenko retired from her last match, but Jelena was in pretty good form prior to that and she’s had a week of rest. Ostapenko in 2-3.

Pera vs Tomova

Not entirely sure what to expect here. Pera is struggling to find her range on grass, but Tomova has lost most of her matches so far on grass. One of these players will find their game by the end, and since Pera has a bit more power I somewhat expect it to be her. Pera in 3.

Boulter vs Saville

Katie Boulter has just won the title in Birmingham, and Saville fell in the second round there against Cristina Bucsa. There was a time that Saville was the clear pick in this match, but Boulter has had some really good performances on tour and she’s at her best on grass. Boulter in 2.

Cornet vs Hibino

Surprising to me that these two have never played before as long as they’ve both seemingly been on tour. Cornet has had some good and bad results so far this grass season, but she’s been competing at a higher level than Hibino overall. The usual Cornet appearance involves arriving with injuries, taped up like a mummy, and then giving it her all anyway. The best part of her game is her ability to generate depth from tough positions on the court, and here she’ll be the bigger hitter as well. These two have very similar paths to the finish line but I think Cornet is slightly more versatile and hits a bit bigger, despite Hibino being quicker. Cornet in 3.

Rogers vs Rybakina

Arriving as the defending champ is a tricky thing to navigate, and Rybakina will need to elevate her game right away as she faces Shelby Rogers first round. Shelby has a huge forehand and a decent serve. If Rybakina is having trouble reflecting power, she’ll struggle here, but that’s been her strength recently (and the key to her defeating Swiatek) so I think this will go her way. Rybakina’s serve is tremendous, and the only worry here is an illness that caused her to withdraw from RG and Berlin. Rybakina in 2.

Sakkari vs Kostyuk

Kostyuk’s game should be well suited to grass, but she’s drawn a tough opponent here in the first round. Sakkari’s downfall has been underperforming in big matches, and giving up big leads due to poor shot selection. These are concerns, but when she plays well, she’s still a top 10 player. Her serving the past month has been decent, and her physical ability and defense are where she first climbed up the rankings so grass does help her a bit. Sakkari in 2-3.

Riske-Armitraj vs Badosa

Riske hasn’t really played much, and Badosa is just returning from a stress fracture in her spine. Riske’s best tennis is the favorite on grass, but it hasn’t been on display in a while. Badosa is a great player, but returning from injury makes her a big question part. Tentatively, Badosa in 2.

Golubic vs Schmiedlova

AK Schmiedlova was a hero in Roland Garros. Since then, she’s only played one match on grass, a quick loss to Daria Snigur. Golubic has been way more active, and came through qualifying in one of the easier sections of the draw. I’m hesitant to believe she wins this easily since Schmiedlova hits so hard and since Golubic really can’t serve for much effect at her height. Still, she’s sharper and this is a must-win spot for the struggling one-hander. Golubic in 3.

Kartal vs Keys

Sonya Kartal has been playing great tennis, so this is a tough spot for the wildcard. I like her chances against half of the players in this draw, but Madison Keys is playing tremendous. She just beat Kasatkina to win the title in Eastbourne, and all the signs of a good Wimbledon run are here. When Keys plays well, one of the first signs is her ability to take her backhand down the line, and that was a hallmark of her play this past week. Should be a spirited contest, but Keys in 2.

Potapova vs Naef

This is another unfortunate spot. Caline Naef played some stellar ball in the qualifier, including beating a near-peaking Dayana Yastremska in the final round. She was down a break in the third but played some really consistent ball to get through. Potapova played some solid tennis in Birmingham, defeating Kostyuk and Dart before losing a close one to Ostapenko. I like Naef to make this competitive, but Potapova is a more consistent version of the same type of offense (Yastremska) that was poised to defeat Naef in qualifying. Potapova in 2 close sets or 3.

Juvan vs Betova

This is a good spot for Juvan. She played great in qualifying and she’s solid on grass. Betova hasn’t shown signs that she can win a match of this caliber. Juvan in 2.

Andreeva vs Wang Xiyu

Mirra Andreeva was slated to really dominate Korpatsch, but she wound up having to win in a third. The first two sets also went to extra innings, with the two trading 7-5 results. It’s amazing for a junior to qualify for a major, but this would be one of her best wins thus far. Wang has a big enough offense to compete with anyone in the mid-tier of the tour, and the one thing Andreeva doesn’t have yet is power. This is court coverage and variety vs weight of shot, and it’s a spot that Andreeva only gets through if she displays a better level than she did against Korpatsch. Very tricky, but I think I have to flinch and expect the veteran to sneak past here. Andreeva has played very little grass and this is a step up from the qualifiers. Wang in a close 3.

Watson vs Krejcikova

Heather Watson always plays well on grass, but Krejcikova seems back to a good level after a finals run in Birmingham. Krejcikova in 2.

Muchova vs Niemeier

Karolina Muchova has big power, great movement, tremendous variety, and a good attitude on court. Niemeier has the same thing, but one has proven to be a bit more consistent with bringing their best level. This should be a really high quality affair, with Muchova winning in 2 close sets.

Noskova vs Galfi

Galfi has been dealing with some injury issues, and Noskova is starting to figure out grass-court tennis. Noskova in 2-3.

Brengle vs Errani

It’s hard to believe Errani is still beating players on tour, but she is. Brengle seems a bit rusty at times in the past year, and the recent results show Errani has a good shot here. Should be close since Madison sticks to cross-court patterns and is a bit younger than Errani, but Sara is the pick here. Errani in 2.

Navarro vs Alexandrova

Emma Navarro is improving at a great rate, but she’s running into a wall here. Alexandrova hits huge, and those shots are finding the court a lot lately. She already won one grasscourt title this year, and this is a very good section of the draw for her with Errani/Brengle waiting in the next round. It means she can leave it all out there against Navarro and likely still be fresh for the third round. Alexandrova in 2.

Begu vs Marino

Begu hasn’t really played much grass, and doesn’t really love the surface traditionally. Marino has struggled similarly, but she’s won some matches and is working on it. I do think Begu is better, but you need matches to win. Marino in 3.

Wickmayer vs Blinkova

Yanina Wickmayer is such a refreshing player. Her spot-serving is pretty rare on tour, and her ability to compete at a high level despite not being the most active on tour is pretty impressive. This will be an even match against Blinkova, who can be outhit here but represents a huge test of Wickmayer’s endurance and percentages. For now, I think Wickmayer gets through in 3, but later, I will go back and edit this to be right no matter what.

Gracheva vs Giorgi

Giorgi looked pretty bad against Kasatkina, and lost a match earlier this year against Venus Williams. On the flipside, in her victories she’s been crushing the ball. If Gracheva were a bit less offensively minded, I might like her here, but I’m not sure she gets any extra errors from Giorgi since she tries to impose herself on rallies. This is a sprint and I think Giorgi’s serving is ultimately a little bit more useful. Unforced error count here might go very high. Giorgi in 3.

Sabalenka vs Udvardy

Sabalenka has been somehow under the radar heading into Wimbledon. She has one match, a quick loss to Kudermetova that is honestly not that bad. Udvardy is a clay-courter, and this is likely one-way traffic. Sabalenka in 2.