2023 Wimbledon Women's & Men's Round Two 🐢

WTA Singles

Swiatek vs Sorribes Tormo

The Swiatek sections of these draws are becoming easy to predict. The question is slowly becoming not whether you can win matches or sets but if you can win games. Iga is really playing at a high level and her commitment to offense is just taking the racquet out of people’s hands. It’d be interesting to see her play against Barty a bit with both of their very different forehand and backhand productions (congrats to Ash and her family on the baby boy also).

Tormo was solid against Trevisan and hit some very sharp forehands but this is a tough ask. She doesn’t really have a way to keep Swiatek on defense, and Swiatek just beat a bigger-hitting defensive baseliner. Swiatek in 2.

Parry vs Martic

Parry! Diane Parry just put on a great performance in round one. Harriet Dart was in good form and playing on her home turf, and Parry was able to pause that momentum with an array of backhand slices and powerful forehands. Dart had her chances late in the match, but Parry just seemed to be the player more comfortable remaining in rallies and the result was Dart making some unforced errors from the baseline on key points. I did not expect this level from Parry so part of the weight of the win is my own ignorance, but it’s still exciting.

Martic had her hands full with junior phenom Linda Fruhvirtova, but an unfortunate injury brought an end to the proceedings. Fruvirtova hurt her left knee, and despite continuing the second set tiebreaker and winning after some treatment, she was unable to continue. Martic was at a good level so she’ll be expected to be a tougher test than Dart in this next one, but Parry is a tricky opponent if she repeats her performance. I think Martic is a little more comfortable dealing with the slice than Dart was since she has a very smooth low-to-high forehand production and a good backhand slice of her own. Parry might be hitting her forehand harder than Martic but Petra seems to be able to create angles a bit better. Overall, I think this will be close but Martic will be slightly better at scoring in bunches. Martic in 2-3.

Linette vs Strycova

Another surprise for me; Linette played well. Up next she has an easier match allegedly, but it’s me alleging that so I don’t trust it. Strycova notched a good win against Zanevska, and she is the more comfortable player on this surface. I’m not really sure what to expect from her against a good defender like Linette though. In my head, Tiechmann’s flat ball was going to give Linette problems, but it didn’t happen. Strycova is a pretty nifty server, but I think Linette is slightly better. Linnete in 2.

Kasatkina vs Burrage

What great play in round one from Burrage. She did not play a poor game against McNally, who staged a late surge but was held off nicely. I’m really impressed with Burrage’s ability to T serve, she is landing those at a solid clip and that’s the best way to erase break points if you’re not a lefty. She’ll have a hard time beating Kasatkina, but it should be a solid match. Burrage has good power and measured offense, and that’s what you need to score on Kasatkina since she puts everything back but doesn’t hit huge herself. Kasatkina was actually down a break and looking rough against Dolehide, but she steadied the ship. That same lapse may cost her a set against Burrage, but a champ like Kasatkina is going to learn from those blips, so it feels like Kasatkina in 2. If you’re reading this Kasatkina, you da illest. If you’re not reading this, hmm.

Podoroska vs Azarenka

Martincova looked pretty grumbley with the result on Monday, as Podoroska’s aggressive pace kept her off balance and forced her into errors. It’s been a rough slump for Martincova, but you gotta stay positive out there because the tour players have been conditioned to look at their opponent’s attitude as a sign, and the connection between belief/confidence and execution on tour also seems very real. Podoroska will have a decent chance in her next round as well, since Azarenka has just required 3 sets to get past Yue Yuan. I hoped Yuan would play her best in this match, and she did, giving Azarenka a good scare and wowing the crowd with her quality groundstrokes. In this next round, I think Azarenka will be able to outlast Podoroska from the baseline. Martincova doesn’t have the best movement nor is her backhand reliable on defense, so the things that let Podoroska thrive just aren’t present here. Azarenka in a close 2 sets,

Mertens vs Svitolina

Halfway through the match against Hruncakova, I realized why the new junior phenom looked a little too strong to be a junior. Hruncakova is Kuzmova, who’s been on tour for forever and has one of the heaviest offenses you can find. Very clever move, Kuzmova, you got da moves. Congrats to her, of course, and thought she lost Hruncakova played really well and could have won set 1. Up next for her opponent Mertens is Elina Svitolina, who had a pretty anti-climactic match against Venus Williams. I have a solution for the wild-card debate by the way. For every wildcard you receive, you should have to play 1 Challenger event. Give the lower tier players a chance to get the win of their career, be a good ambassador, and show the dissenters that you are actually working on your game still. It’s also good for them. Murray started to get his game back when he finally dropped down and played Challengers. Playing a lot of tennis is (plot twist) good for your tennis.

Mertens should be a bit better than Svitolina here. Elina is a faster player and is capable of winning, but grass has never been her best surface. Mertens is looking very comfortable here and to dispatch Hruncakova without issue when she was playing well is pretty solid. Mertens in 2-3.

Wang vs Kenin

Sheesh. That was the best Kenin has played since she won a major. Nonstop aggression, moving to the ball constantly, and hitting to the open court almost religiously were just enough to get past Gauff. It seems like Gauff is a bit too focused on hitting the ball hard at times, but she didn’t play poorly at all, Kenin was just better. Kenin’s serve is a decent weapon, and her backhand is world-class. She’s been in a rough slump for a few seasons, but yesterday she looked wonderful.

Wang ended the Storm Hunter hype train, and from the sections I saw Hunter was just making a bunch of errors because she was rushed. Wang hits pretty big, so that’s understandable. This next round I think Kenin wins. I’m a bit surprised she’s only -189 on the books, but I don’t know all the mechanics and models they have access to, nor the physical condition of the athletes that they likely have access to. Wang’s offense presents a different challenge than Gauff, but I don’t think she will be able to outlast Kenin from the baseline, which is wild to say considering a month or two ago Kenin couldn’t hit 4 balls in a row inside the court. Kenin in 3.

Pegula vs Bucsa

Down 9-5 in the third set tiebreaker, Bucsa casually saved 4 match points and won. It was a pretty impressive display, because it involved some very risky shots that she didn’t hesitate on at all. Bucsa’s offense is scary good when it’s landing, and she seems to be able to get in a rhythm for longer and longer stretches lately. She’ll need to redline again here, since Pegula is as solid as Rakhimova but with a top 10 offense. Pegula is through after a solid win against Lauren Davis. Davis played well and served as well as I’ve seen, but Pegula is just the bigger hitter in the end. Pegula should win again here; Bucsa is going to win in some stretches, but Pegula’s overall level can compete even and she’ll win when Cristina has lapses on serve. Pegula in 2.

Siniakova vs Tsurenko

Siniakova carried over her great form into her first round against Zheng, winning a very close two sets. Her reward is a player she’s struggled against in the past, Lesia Tsurenko. Tsurenko had a tough match with Claire Liu in round one, requiring a third set to get through. Despite the h2h standing at 2-1 for Lesia, I expect Siniakova to win this one. She’s hitting really sharp backhands and moving well, and seems genuinely interested in tennis right now. Siniakova in 3.

Parks vs Bogdan

Ana Bogdan played great in round one, and taking Samsonova out of the draw is something most players will thank her for until they play her. Parks just plain outplayed Friedsam in round one, and her offense will let her apply pressure to Bogdan in round two. Bogdan can throw in a handful of unforced errors, but she hits huge and her aggressive play might give Parks a little trouble. Probably one of the best matches to watch in the second round; Bogdan in 2.

Kudermetova vs Vondrouosova

This is really tough to call. Both are in great form, both have just defeated solid opponents (Kanepi and Stearns), and they have traded matches in the past. On grass though, I’m usually going to side with the bigger offense, and that’s Kudermetova. Stearns was able to score on Vondrousova a bit, and I think Kudermetova will be more consistent on serve than Peyton. Kudermetova in 3.

Fernandez vs Garcia

Fernandez took 3 sets but she got a good win that’ll make her struggle of a season feel a bit better. No reward in the next round, as she gets an offense that can likely hit through her impeccable defending. “But if her defending is impeccable, how can someone hit through it?” says ChatGTP. “Yes, good point” I say, as I close the window.

Garcia isn’t as good on grass as she is on other surfaces, but she still has huge power. When she connects, you’re not getting it, and Fernandez is a bit inconsistent and lacking belief lately. Garcia in 2-3.

ATP Singles

Sinner vs Schwartzman

One of the biggest surprises of the day came from Diego Schwartzman. He’d found his game again at the start of the grass season, and notched a win or two in exhibitions, but Kecmanovic still sat as a slight favorite. He serves bigger, he hits harder, and despite a collapse against Barrere last week, he’d been up a break in both sets. Early in the day I watched Baez play Barrios, and it became apparent just how frustrating it is when your opponent lands first serves and keeps the ball in play. Barrios’ game is way more suited to grass, but the match was still extremely close because of Baez’s gameplan. The same plan worked wonders for Schwartzman. He focused on landing safer, but more repeatable first serves, and he just didn’t let Kecmanovic exit rallies without creating something special. For a guy struggling with inconsistent levels of play, it was an excellent plan. I believe Diego was the only player to dish out a donut in the first round on the men’s side.

Sinner had a similar scoreline but a much easier opponent in Juan Manuel Cerundolo, and he was focused from start to finish. It’s always a good sign when a young player is business-like in the simple matches, and he should expect to beat Diego here. Sinner’s edge is that the baseline rallies are something he can hang in comfortably. He’s one of the best counterpunchers on tour and he has the ability to infuse pace off of any shot. This could go in straight sets, but I don’t think there is a simple path past Schwartzman at this point. He’s going to drag things out, and despite his serve being a bit weak, landing a high percentage of first serves keeps returners on their toes. The second big problem for Diego though is that Sinner is one of the better returners on tour. I’m expecting a lot of good play here, but Sinner in 3-4.

Galan vs Otte

Nishioka decided to head to Wimbledon with no preparation, and it cost him the match against Galan. He had trouble holding serve, and his contact on the forehand side was something he struggled with throughout the match. Since he has such a loopy forehand, this isn’t really the surface for him, but Nishioka seemed frustrated at the difficulty. He expressed this frustration to those who would listen. To the crowd, to his box, to the sky, at a nearby bird. It was kind of entertaining, but somewhat disappointing. To me, if you show up unprepared, you shouldn’t be surprised when you don’t do well. Now that he’s injury free, the attitude seems to be what’s keeping him from making that jump to the next level. If he’d played one warmup match, I do think he’d have been able to beat Galan. For now, it’s a great result for Daniel.

A lot of late money came in on Koepfer, and it makes sense since he’s always doing well on the Challenger circuit, but Otte’s serve was a big factor here. Koepfer had to work for all of his games, and once he lost the lead, he really never had a chance. Oscar will have his hands full with Galan since he has a slightly bigger delivery on serve, but Otte is a puzzle I don’t think Galan can solve. Nishioka was able to break back in a bunch of spots even though he was playing poorly, and I think Otte’s variation and heavy forehand will allow him to create similar break opportunities. Otte in 3-4.

Broady vs Ruud

Casper Ruud had a tough test in round one, but Lokoli doesn’t seem able to elevate his game to the top level for an entire match yet. Ruud, despite his lack of preparation, served extremely well and was pretty devastating when he had forehands. It was a good warmup match, and this section of the draw is one that could see him go on a run. The guy is one of the more professional people on tour, and it pays dividends in these big events. Liam Broady in the first round would be a tougher test I think, but now that Ruud has some semblance of a groove, he should be a decent favorite. Broady’s going to take the consistency path here; he keeps the ball in play and plays Mannarino’s shot selection, with Norrie’s swing production. Without pace and a big serve though, it’s unlikely you’re going to take Ruud out of his comfort zone. King of grass in 4.

Rublev vs Karatsev

This is probably the best match of the day on the men’s side. Rublev is playing solid tennis and dispatched Max Purcell in straight sets. We know Rublev is going to play well regardless of the surface, so his opponent is the question mark. Here, Karatsev is able to supply the firepower necessary to make this a match. Aslan had a tricky opponent in round one, as Luca Van Assche is extremely quick and reflects power well. The hole in the bucket though was Luca’s inability to score. When he had time, it was hard for him to produce clean winners the way Karatsev was, and the difference in serving was huge. The serve is why I think the -526 price for Rublev is a tiny bit off. Yes, he should still win on consistency and overall level, but Karatsev’s serve was a cannon in round one, and Rublev is not a great returner. Once the edge is off, Rublev should settle in and win this, but I think he’ll find that most of his breaks are earned via Karatsev errors rather than through his own merit. Should be at least one tiebreaker. Rublev in 4.

Barrios Vera vs Goffin

Big time win in round one for Barrios Vera. Baez was at his best, and created a lot of break opportunities, but Barrios has a lot of great skill. His serve is excellent, and his hands at net are so solid. His shot selection when he has the advantage also seems perfect for grass, as he frequently goes back behind his opponent and volleys deep when he can’t end the point in one shot. It all spells a very tricky contest for Goffin. Round one was pretty simple for Goffin. He was playing well, and that means his opponent can’t get a ball by him. Maroszan is a promising talent, but hitting through Goffin on a new surface is a big ask. Goffin doesn’t have the biggest delivery, but he also can serve to great effect on grass when his first serve percentage is high. Add in that Maroszan got late notice for the lucky loser spot because Nick Kyrgios’d at the last minute, and it was a pretty good day for Goffin.

I don’t Goffin can beat Barrios in any simple fashion. I’m hesitant to call the upset outright against one of the best grass-court players on tour, but I think Barrios is the better server and Goffin will have to win this by outlasting him in rallies. Since Baez made some inroads doing this, David should be able to also. Expecting an absolute classic here, and Barrios might have a good hardcourt season judging by his approach to grass. Goffin in 4-5.

Bublik vs Wolf

Waiter : Can I take your order?

Bublik : Cheeseburger!

Waiter : and you?

Mackie : Just the first set please

In another very McDonald match, Mackie played great, won the first set, and then lost the plot. He just seems in a rush to end the point, which confuses me since he’s lightning fast. A more De Minaur approach is probably prudent, look to get aggressive but play with measured tennis until you see the opportunity. Trying to trade power or hit winners off solid shots is just not a good plan for an entire match, especially when your only weapon is your forehand. Bublik is a hard match, so it’s not a terrible loss, but McDonald’s team need to do some brainstorming.

For now, Bublik is through and plays Wolf, who played a plucky but rusty Couacaud. Wolf has all the tools to win, but against the higher tier players he seems to fall just short in the deciding moments. That’s not a problem with his game, but a testament to the tour’s quality. In a tiebreaker, or a fourth or fifth set, Bublik is able to score much easier than Wolf, and he has more experience doing so. I think Wolf’s bendy kick-serve will be useful early, but Bublik’s reach and laziness will probably let him get a read on it, and it’s really hard to deal with his offensive play in this shootout format. Should be some early sets traded, and Bublik pulling away towards the end. Bublik in 4-5.

Marterer vs Mmoh

Borna Gojo looked pretty dangerous after two sets, but Marterer’s overall level was much higher and he was scoring during the rally also. When two server’s play, generally the more capable baseliner will win. This next match should be much closer, and a lot is at stake for these two tour-hopefuls. Michael Mmoh notched what would be the win of his career yesterday. It would be, if he hadn’t dispatched Zverev in similar fashion. Mmoh is often a bit of a pusher, and his serve isn’t really a huge weapon. It often seems like he’s nervous out there, and trying to just keep the ball in play. Sometimes players with tremendous speed and endurance don’t feel pressure, and think they can frustrate their opponents into errors. It’s something coaches should address, but it feels like the coaching on tour is more about techniques and less about the mental side of the game. The amount of looking and talking with the box makes me feel like a good chunk of the job is just about babysitting the emotions of a player not quite yet ready to analyze the game on their own in real-time. Harsh, but yeah.

Mmoh bashing aside, he just played four absurdly good sets of tennis. I’ve never seen him serve as well as he did there, and it was a big key to outdueling FAA. Felix seems to have fallen into a long-term slump, and his technique is part of the problem. He doesn’t seem to have his timing right in outdoor tennis, and you can see him brushing up on the ball a lot. This is fine to infuse spin, but when your timing isn’t solid the ball just doesn’t go anywhere, and on grass you can’t afford to give your opponent balls above the net since everything directed downward skips a little bit. I think part of the issue is that in the past, FAA’s talent got him through these patches. We all watched him go down 0-2 in sets at majors and then just roll back. “He finally decided to play,” we laughed, as if it was in his control the entire time. One loss is not the end of the world, but his team will need to address the main issue here, which I think is that the early rounds are a place where Felix is not dominant. With time, he hits one of the heaviest forehands on tour. He has a great serve. In the first round though, everyone is fresh and possesses similar pace of shot as Felix, and that means he just can’t find an edge. It’s common to see extremely close matches in the first between players with wide rankings for this reason; the pace the matches are played at is just a bit beyond most players’ ability to control, so cross-court patterns abound and offense is hard to find.

Mmoh will have a good shot against Marterer here if he serves well again, and I hope he keeps the same aggressive tempo. The problems I think are that Marterer doesn’t give you the same loopy ball that Felix does, and he doesn’t make as many unforced errors because he doesn’t go as big as Felix with his shot selection. He hits solid, and takes a huge rip on every ball. He’s in a good service rhythm, and being a lefty is always tricky since Mmoh’s backhand doesn’t really create on its own. I see these players as pretty even, but I think Marterer will be the one hitting a heavier ball in rallies and he should win a close one. Marterer in 5.

Musetti vs Munar

Lorenzo Musetti is really good on grass. It’s the most surprising timeline, but it’s welcome. Munar got a gift of a draw, playing a version of John Isner that looked like he’d played 5 sets of tennis before he got on the court. Munar thrived, and it’s a well-deserved result for him since he’s had some crushing close losses this season. I don’t think Jaume has much of a chance here, because Musetti serves bigger, but is also better from the baseline. Musetti’s only issue I believe is his court-positioning and his slight passivity during baseline rallies, but his game is still bigger than Munar’s. Musetti in 3.

Choinski vs Hurkacz

Good career-changing result for Choinski. He played solid despite losing the early stages against Lajovic, and the prize money from this is good enough to keep him travelling for at least another season. Choinski has a big serve and good power. He’s sort of in that in-between stage that Korda and Hurkacz seem to live in, where he’s a bit shorter than a servebot but a bit taller than a baseliner. As a result, his lateral speed is a little slow for the tour, so grass is a good place for him. This next match against Hurkacz doesn’t seem winnable because I don’t think Choinski’s defending is good enough yet to create pressure for Hurkacz, but this is a great opportunity and Choinski should be able to hold a bit against Hubie since he’s not the most consistent player. Hurkacz in 3.

Etcheverry vs Wawrinka

Watching the Etcheverry interview after his win against Zapata Miralles, it’s pretty clear that Tomas is a great dude. He fought hard for his first win at Wimbledon, and he’ll have a decent chance in his next round. The interviewer asked him about playing Wawrinka tomorrow, and he said “I have to play again tomorrow?” with genuine surprise. A five set emotional marathon, coupled with Stan’s sharp form should make this a tough ask. Ruusuvuori was the favorite in round one, but Wawrinka did not blink. Usually he has some physical letdowns during matches, but he served well and played offense throughout. There were unforced errors, of course, but it was some of the better tennis he’s played of late. Etcheverry’s serve and power could make this tricky if Wawrinka gets tired, but I think Stan should be able to sprint through this one since Etcheverry is a little bit fatigued and a little bit new to grass. Wawrink in 3-4.

Thompson vs Djokovic

Nakashima had a 2-0 lead and was playing some great tennis, but Jordan Thompson was able to outlast him in their round one match. I wouldn’t say either played poorly at any stage, but Thompson is just a bit physically stronger at this stage in their career. I don’t mean to hate directly on the moustache, but once Thompson shaved his moustache he started winning matches again, which is of course because Jordan Thompson’s moustache is so preposterous that wind can’t even travel through it, which makes him 10% slower. Djokovic in 3-4. It feels odd to include the 4, but Cachin had a good chance to win the first set, and Djokovic is always looking to get to the finish line at his chosen pace, not post up impressive scorelines for gram. This should be really entertaining because Thompson is super fast and likely to dig in even if he’s outmatched.