2023 Wimbledon Women's & Men's Round One, Two, and somehow Three

Sorry for the late post, I’m having some computer issues (am good at breaking them).

Carballes Baena vs Rune

RCB pulled off a big upset against Arnaldi over the course of two days. Early in the match Arnaldi’s level was just too good and he was the only one playing offense. He’s going to be a problem on tour because his dropshots are extremely well disguised and executed. Once the edge was off though, it was Roberto scoring the points and Arnaldi forcing shots. I thought the stoppage due to darkness might let Arnaldi reboot, but down a break and a set is a tough ask for a young player.

Rune won fairly easily against Loffhagen, and this should be another similar equation. RCB is strong and will make Rune beat him, but Rune actually is capable and on grass he’s not faced with the huge physical toll that he might be on another surface against the Spaniard. Rune in 3-4.

O’Connell vs Vesely

O’Connell endured a late surge by Medjedovic, who seems equally surprised at his own highs and lows as I am. He’s definitely a great player but he reminds me a bit of Krejcikova; when the swing is a little bit off he struggles mightily. O’Connell opened as a pickem here against Vesely which is kinda squirrely to me. Vesely was unreal against Korda. I thought Seb went for offense a bit too freely in this one. He’s used to counterpunching and coming up with big shots, but in this scenario I think he was the more stable player who needed to just keep the ball in play and wait for the percentages to work out. Vesely was serving great though, and I think he wins this one as well. I’ve never been a good judge of O’Connell’s matches, but it feels like here he can only win by outlasting Vesely and the Korda match wasn’t a huge problem for Jiri. Vesely in 4.

Berrettini vs De Minaur

We’re halfway to a boy band (wya Rublev and Ruud?). Berrettini played like himself in round one. Sonego played really well and hit some deft backhands down the line, but Berrettini’s serve is just a reliable cannon when he’s playing well. Odds opened close on this with Berre like +138. I think he’s capable of scoring on De Minaur since ADM struggles against players with power, but that means Berrettini can only score on one side of his body. Another issue here is fitness. Sonego is playing short points but De Minaur can really wear you down. I don’t think De Minaur will return that well here, because we’ve really only seen Djokovic and very tall opponents return Berrettini’s serve well, but he should get the job done. Something to look for is Berrettini’s footwork as the match heads into the 4th and 5th sets, I expect him to fade a little. De Minaur seemed to struggle with Coppejans, but if you watched the match you know that he was serving extremely well and he hits the ball really hard which again, is the one thing that really unravels De Minaur. De Minaur in 5.

Davidovich Fokina vs Van De Zandschulp

Tricky matchup here. I thought Fils would blitz ADF, but it was the opposite. He looked like he couldn’t really win baseline rallies, and Fokina ran away with it. He won’t be able to do that against Botic, who won a pretty wild affair against Zhizhen Zhang. Zhang is so easy to cheer for, but Goatic is the better player for this matchup. He has the skill and variety to deal with Fokina, and a big enough serve to hang even. This is another match where I expect the server’s legs to gradually go as things progress. ADF is a scary opponent for anyone, and if he’s playing well on grass it means his game is still evolving. ADF in 4-5.

Kubler vs Jarry

A lot of people thought Kubler squandered some opportunities today, but I was impressed at his measured tennis. He put a lot of balls onto Humbert’s backhand from neutral, which meant when he finally took his forehand down the line it caught Ugo by surprise. To me, Humbert is better at tennis, so Kubler getting through here is a sign of a great game-plan. Problems I saw were Kubler yelling at his box. He double-faulted, then yelled at his box to “say something, say anything”. Bruh, you double faulted. Fuck are they supposed to say, “don’t double fault”?

Jarry rolled against Cecchinato despite dropping the first set, but I think he’ll have some trouble here. Jarry is the bigger hitter for sure and Kubler is not a great returner, but I don’t think Jarry will have an easy time escaping baseline rallies. Kubler is physically strong, and it will really come down to his ability to remain composed during the return games and sections of the match where he’s just getting dominated. A calm Kubler can win. For now, I probably expect Jarry to win in 4 but he’s at the end of a long run of winning tennis and Kubler is playing his best. The +138 pricetag for Kubler also is a nod to his solid form. A month ago that would have been +220.

Musetti vs Hurkacz

Musetti had some double fault issues against Munar, but I don’t think he was in danger there so he was likely just trying to get the match over as fast as possible. I also think that against Hurkacz, he’s the more durable baseliner so he has two ways to score. Hurkacz presents a huge test here because he was serving around 75-80% first serves in all his sets against Choinski. I do think his downfall though is his inability to break. He’s a great tiebreak threat as an underdog, but as a favorite all the pressure is on him, and his groundstrokes are somewhat unreliable. Musetti’s legs against Hurkacz’s arm. Hurkacz in 4 or Musetti in 5. That pick feels like a copout, but that’s okay because uhhh, it is.

Sinner vs Halys

This is the first good look at how Sinner handles a big offensive threat. Halys’ offense is ridiculously composed. If there were a tennis game, Halys is the semifinal opponent that you smash your controller because you keep losing to him. He was slated to have a tough one with Vukic, but nope. Sinner is probably the winner here, but Halys is a scary scary server so I don’t think Sinner escapes in straights. If he can, the Djokovic Sinner matchup could be a real test for Novak.

Zverev vs Watanuki

I was yelling at my tv while Watanuki was lobbying to start because of darkness last night. He was just not the favorite on fresh terms with Huesler, and it proved to be the case as his 5-2 lead in the third turned into 5-5. Somehow, he eclipsed a mini-break in the tiebreaker and managed to win a preposterous 5 set comeback. It sets up a match I don’t think he can win. Zverev is serving really well, and Watanuki hasn’t yet found a way to cut down the unforced errors during baseline rallies. Zverev in 3.

Alcaraz vs Muller

Great win for Muller. Alcaraz is on another level though. Alcaraz in 3.

Galan vs Ymer

This should be a good one. Galan ended the Otte hype train by constantly putting the ball in play with pace. Otte just couldn’t impose himself without errors. Ymer pulled off a comeback after going down two sets and a break, and that makes me slight scared after watching Giron grab the third against Fucsovics from the same situation. I love to watch Fritz lose, but he handled this one well and was gracious to Ymer. Mikael is playing well, and all the tools are there for him to continue improving. His problems on tour are not a lack of ability, but underperforming and playing a bit too careful. I think he’s better than Galan from the baseline, but him beating Fritz was very much about outlasting him and Galan’s movement is way better. Honestly, no clue what to expect here as both are in great form. Galan is probably the better server, but Ymer hits a bigger ball overall. Ymer in 5.

Pella vs Safiullin

Am I supposed to start believing in Pella now? Safiullin rolled Moutet today, so quick in fact that he did not really get to throw many tantrums. Pella made similarly quick work of Harold Mayot, whose serving is likely to get him some qualifier wins in the hardcourt swing as well. If Safiullin plays well, he should beat Pella, but once Guido gets in a rhythm he’s hard to outlast. He doesn’t go for a lot so it makes his opponents feel like they have to create in order to get out of rallies. I think Roman has a big enough serve to outduel him, but I would be very scared if Pella starts to break serve late in the match as he’s already worn down two quality opponents. Safiullin in 4 or Pella in 5.

Bublik vs Marterer

Bublik is really fun to watch, and I hope he keeps winning. He plays for the crowd, which is something more athletes would benefit from. It doesn’t lead to the healthiest shot selection, but it does grow the sport and your fan-base, which are long-term bonuses. Marterer got a quick straight set victory, and I think he’ll be a difficult task for Bublik. He swings as hard as he can on every ball, but hits to big targets, so it’s a match where Bublik will have a difficult time creating dropshot attempts. Still, Bublik can take care of his serve and he’s going to have ample time to find his range. Marterer also has played 3 extra matches here after coming through qualifying, and he looked a little like he needed to win in straights against Mmoh. Bublik 4-5.

Norrie vs Eubanks

Not sure what to expect here. I thought Monteiro was right there to beat Eubanks, but Chris found his service rhythm and never looked back. I don’t really see how Norrie is going to return serve effectively enough to beat Eubanks, but I also think that he is way more capable on offense than Monteiro. Thiago settled into predictable patterns and his backhand is not quite as annoying as Norrie’s. The low bounce here should be an issue for Eubanks, but this could be fairly close and Eubanks really does have a chance to pull an upset here. Tentatively, Norrie in 4, but the -345 line here is a classic upset magnet.

Shapovalov vs Broady

Ruud got zipped in the 5th, and headed off to see the Weeknd. His casual attitude towards grass is the same one I’d criticize others for having, but everything he does seems to just be honest and good-natured, and he isn’t salty about the losses. It’s a great win for Broady, and he normally would have a good shot here against Shapo. Gregoire Barrere played great, and he still got dismissed. Denis is serving great, and he’s hitting the ball in the court. He’s a sleeper imo to win his quarter, but he needs to keep his level and focus up and Broady will try to slow things down and grind him out. Shapovalov in 3-4.

Rublev vs Goffin

Goffin and Barrios was really entertaining, but Goffin’s speed just gives him an extra element of surprise out there. He can be out of position and still come up with a big pass or a lob. There was a dropshot/lob combo today that saw Goffin track the lob down and hit a perfect inside out forehand pass as he turned. In hindsight, it was the only shot he could go for, but I didn’t even expect him to get the ball. Playing fast people just takes a different mindset. If you decide that you want the ball to come back, you might not get surprised, but they just win extra points and force errors with their defending.

Rublev and Karatsev was nutters butters. Karatsev was crushing the ball but Rublev is just stronger technically and it showed in the unforced error count. Karatsev lost the forehand battle, and I’m starting to notice that he thrives only when he has an extra second on that wing. Rublev should beat Goffin here. He’ll have a hard time scoring but I don’t think he minds playing an extra ball or 100, and his serve is slightly more reliable than David’s. Should be the second best match of the day after Wawrinka Djokovic. Rublev in 5.

Djokovic vs Wawrinka

This is what we want. Do I think Wawrinka will summon a new level from Djokovic? Yes. I don’t think he can win, honestly, but the level of serving and shotmaking he’s displayed thus far are good enough to win against the previously displayed Djokovic. Of course, Novak coasts in the early rounds, and then as we head into the second week we keep going back to the draw looking for anyone who can possibly give him a game. This is the first look at what he does when tested. Wawrinka’s serving is good enough to get to a tiebreaker or two, but I think his stamina is not. Djokovic in 4.

Begu vs Blinkova

Every win Begu gets on grass is a bonus. Marino had her chances but her movement just isn’t tour level and it puts a lot of pressure on her serve. I like Blinkova here; she’s on a good run on grass and her consistency and counterpunching are the right formula against Begu if she makes errors. Should be terribly close. Blinkova in 3.

Brengle vs Alexandrova

Brengle is a rare visitor to the second round this season, and this is a matchup she likely can’t win. Alexandrova could straightup win Wimbledon if she plays well, her offense is that huge. Alexandrova in 2.

Golubic vs Keys

Keys is another player going somewhat under the radar in the Rybakina Sabalenka Swiatek discussion, but she’s playing great and breezing through her matches. Being fresh in the second week is huge, and Keys hitting her backhand well is also. Golubic is in good form, but I think her serve is a little too weak to really win here. Keys in 2.

Kostyuk vs Badosa

I don’t know how far Badosa will go returning from a back issue, and this is a really tough opponent. Kostyuk put Sakkari on defense and didn’t let her off the hook in round one, and I think there’s a good chance she does the same against Badosa. Kostyuk is the bigger hitter, and she serves a little better as well. Badosa is more consistent overall, but she’s had some forehand issues in the past and I think Marta can squeak by, or roar mightily by. Kostyuk in 3.

Neimeier vs Galfi

Niemier pulled a ridiculously good upset, but I can’t remember who it was. Ah right, Muchova. I put Karolina in the finals in my bracket, so of course she lost first round. I’ve got to start leaving that round blank so I don’t jinx people. Jule played excellent, and her forehand was a big factor here. Muchova seemed to get injured late in the match, but finished it out respectfully. I hope for a quick recovery for her. It really sucks how many players leave the grass swing with injuries.

Galfi was never really in trouble against Noskova. She wound up in a third but she was hitting the ball clean and seemed less prone to errors in this match. Noskova’s body language was just not positive in the third, and I think that was a fatigue issue more than anything. Still, the younger players need to work on not giving their opponents signs to feed off, even if the issues are real. I think Galfi can play even with Neimeier, because they have a similar approach but Neimeier requires more time to produce her offense. Probably Galfi has a harder time defending in the long run though, so Neimeier in 3 is my pick. Go Jule!

Sasnovich vs Kvitova

This is one of those matches where you know Kvitova is going to win but then somehow Sasnovich beats her in 3. Paolini managed to push Kvitova, and I always worry when Petra has already won a title recently that she’s just running on fumes. If she can temper her aggression and land returns, she should be able to win the early exchanges with Sasnovich, but Aliaksandra will absolutely be pushing as plan B and she’s more suited to the grass than Paolini so this is tricky. Kvitova in 2 or Sasnovich in 3.

Stevanovic vs Korpatsch

Twice I’ve doubted Korpatsch, but when she got into a rhythm last round, it was easy to see how she’s winning. She’s able to measure her offense really well with time and control, and Zhao basically needed errors that never came. She put a lot of extra balls in play, but the pressure that Korpatsch succumbs to is generally big hitting. It makes Stevanovic an odd matchup to analyze, as she goes with a lot of slices. Pliskova got smoked in round one. It wasn’t a ton of errors, but a Stevanovic who served well and kept the ball low. I expect her to play well again, and it’ll be interesting to see if Tamara can create off the slow but low slices that she employs. I think the underdog here keeps going, but the Korpatsch result against Andreeva is stuck in my head as a really good win now that she’s defeated Krejcikova and Wang. Stevanovic in 2-3.

Andreescu vs Kalinina

I didn’t expect Andreescu to only be -140 here. It makes me think Kalininina is going to win, honestly, so my thinking is skewed. I didn’t catch a lot of her first round match, but she won fairly easily. Andreescu had a three set battle, but doesn’t she always? I don’t know if Kalinina can defend against the good Andreescu, but Bianca can likely give problems to Kalinina even when she has control. Tricky, but Andreescu in 3.

Gracheva vs Sabalenka

Gracheva played really well against Giorgi, but all of Camila’s losses are about her percentages. I think Gracheva will do better than expected against Sabalenka, but she just hits the ball a lot softer than the AO champ and Aryna is fresh here and serving well. Sabalenka in 2 single break sets.

Tsurenko vs Bogdan

Tsurenko oddsmaker respect was apparently warranted, as she quickly beat Siniakova. She’s favored here against Bogdan, which is kinda wild considering Bogdan just beat Samsonova and Parks. Tsurenko could win this, but I think that Bogdan actually will level up her game in a big moment rather than fold. Tsurenko moves the ball great, but I think having an opponent that Bogdan has beaten before may give her extra focus to keep the ball between the lines until she has her moments. Bogdan in 3.

Kasatkina vs Azarenka

Kasatkina is allegedly nursing a back issue, but it didn’t seem present in round two, or three? Idk what round it is tbh anymore, and when I go check the weather forecast little raindrops start appearing near my eyes. Azarenka and Kasatkina is a match I can’t predict but will definitely watch. Idk what kind of wizard you’d have to be to figure out which of these complete players is going to execute in the big moments. Kasatkina is the favorite for sure, but the injury concern is a question mark. Kasatkina in 2ish.

Linette vs Bencic

Linette into the third round! Bencic won a really long match against Collins, and I expect her to get this as well. The tiebreaker was painful to watch against Collins went down 7-2 right away, but I guess someone has to lose at the end of a close match and Bencic is more active so it’s good for the draw. Bencic in 2-3.

Vondrousova vs Vekic

Vekic is ballin, but Vondrousova just froze one of the more dangerous players in the draw. I think she’ll have a hard time defending against Vekic since Donna hits the ball so huge, but Sloane was right there with Vekic at times and Vondrousova is likely to create a little more chaos since she’s a lefty with a lot of spins. Tricky spot where honestly I’d not back either player for any significant sum. Vondrousova in 3.

Pegula vs Cocciaretto

Does the Cocciaretto train ever stop? She’s playing great ball and Pegula is a likely candidate to lose unexpectedly in a big event. I think this will require Pegula to level up on serve or it will be really close. If she can get her first serve % above 65, I think she wins in 2. If not, probably gets it in a third.

Jabeur vs Bai

This is a good wakeup call for Jabeur. Bai is really aggressive and consistent, but she like to go right back at her opponent and that tends to be something that Jabeur deals with very well. Ons obviously is the favorite, but this is the first look at how focused she is here. Jabeur in 2 would be a good sign, and expect Bai to be on tour by next season.

Svitolina vs Kenin

Kenin played great again, and the rumbling about her past titles has to be getting louder. I think she can win here, since Svitolina is not at her best on grass. She beat Mertens 6-1, 1-6, 6-1 somehow, and I think this will be one of those matches that is so high-profile that it feels like you can’t afford errors. Sometimes the big WTA matches just seem like a sprint, and the tension is something that Kenin tends to thrive in. Really close here, but I think Kenin is just in a great rhythm and is in contention for this title. Kenin in 3.

Swiatek vs Martic

Petra’s certainly good enough to take a set off of Swiatek, but I don’t know if it’ll happen. It just feels really hard to get momentum against Iga lately unless you hit bigger than her, and Martic only does that off the forehand wing 25% of the time. First look at Swiatek’s defense, I suppose. Iga in 2.

Bouzkova vs Garcia

I thought Kontaveit played well in round one, so Bouzkova’s win means a little something to me. Garcia at her best can run through this match, but she lost twice to Bouzkova on grass already. Marie’s form is struggles, but having that past experience against an opponent can be a real mindfluff. Bouzkova in 3.