2023 Wimbledon Women's & Men's Fourth Round Sunday Matches, Two

Shout out vk2499 who is now leading both the ATP and WTA bracket comps. No one has ever won both before and to do it at a major when there are hundreds of entries would be unreal. “Businessman” is still leading the odds comp and after trippling his stack in the second round it looks like it’s going to be really tough to catch him. WTA first today.

WTA Singles

Vondrousova vs Bouzkova

Marketa Vondrousova has quietly demolished this draw. Donna Vekic played great the past few weeks, and Vondrousova was able to frustrate her into errors and hold off a late second set surge. It’s easy to forget that she made the finals of a major (2019 French Open) during her slumps, but at her best she is a darkhorse for a title on any surface. Vondrousova’s left handed attack follows the usual lefty patterns, but she has a really efficient technique that keeps the ball low but still infuses a lot of spin. Her serve isn’t the best but she moves it around well and doesn’t usually struggle with double faults. Dropshots make a good compliment to her versatile defending since she’s adept at winning those scrambling rallies, and I think this will be evident against Bouzkova.

There are very few times that I am completely wrong about a match but get the money anyway. Bouzkova was one of them. I knew she would dig in against Garcia and succeed if Garcia made errors. I knew she would defend until the curfew or rain made her stop in this match, but what I didn’t know is that Garcia’s rough patch would never come. She didn’t face a single break point in this match until the third set, and was only broken after going up a break herself in the third.

Bouzkova extended the rallies and did a great job, but Garcia really played better tennis throughout the match and just got a bit unlucky to have some bad bounces and errors in shot choice on a few key points. Bouzkova didn’t seem tired at the end, but mentally she was. Taking care of your serve under constant pressure and getting run around on basically every point is really fatiguing, and I think she’ll have a hard time with Vondrousova because she doesn’t make the same type of errors that Garcia does. Vondrousova is equally solid on defense, and has a more measured offense despite lacking Garcia’s power and serve. Bouzkova’s strongest shot is definitely her backhand-cross, but since Marketa is lefty that is somewhat negated. It was an amazing performance or resilience and focus by Bouzkova in the previous round, but I think here she’s going to be in more comfortable territory during rallies, but similarly unable to score. Vondrousova is en fuego and is 2-0 in this matchup. Vondrousova in 2.

Pegula vs Tsurenko

If Bouzkova and Garcia’s match was tense, I don’t know what to say about Bogdan vs Tsurenko. Their match lasted 3 and a half hours, and if you know Tsurenko’s defensive style then you know the entire thing was filled with endless rallies and exhausting points. By the time they got to the third set tiebreak, both players were visibly exhausted. Tsurenko’s legs looked like jelly, and Bogdan was doubled over after most points. What followed was a tiebreak that saw 11 match points combined and ended 20-18 for Tsurenko. A 33 minute tiebreaker that I believe set the record for Most Tiebreakeriest. Bogdan seemed to have the upper hand when it came to actually ending rallies, but she just couldn’t string two points together in the end. Tsurenko on the other hand was barely going for anything, just rolling the ball in with no pace and making sure she got her racquet on the next shot. I always roll my eyes at the floor flop after match point, but Tsurenko may not have had a choice.

While Tsurenko and Bogdan were playing out a mini-season of Survivor on the tennis court, Pegula won fairly easily against Cocciaretto. She’ll have a big edge against Tsurenko, who will have a very difficult time recovering physically. Even if she can, Pegula is very solid and is unlikely to get outlasted in rallies. She can make errors in bunches and struggle with confidence, but Tsurenko’s style doesn’t let her sprint away in the scoreline and I think she’s overmatched here. Tsurenko won their previous match but this was in 2019 and the situation here feels like one that will see her have to take some MTOs just to complete the match. Pegula in 2.

Swiatek vs Bencic

Interesting to see Swiatek finally get tested. Coming into this tournament I wasn’t really expecting Swiatek to be dominant on grass, but she’s breezing through this tournament. Against Martic though, there were some issues. Swiatek’s second serve was a bit of an opening for Petra to get a full swing on, and there were some errors on her forehand as well. These are actually the same issues that she had against Rybakina, so it’s something her and her team are likely working on. It’s really tough on grass to hit the short-hop forehands back that Swiatek goes for. The kick serve she hits on clay doesn’t really travel as much on grass also, so she might start looking to develop a flatter second serve like the one Caroline Garcia goes with. Tension also plays a roll in the serving issues. I was watching Rune towards the end of the ADF match, and he hit a second serve with a ton of kick. He looked like Sonic the Hedgehog the way he scrunched up and really got great technique and compression on the ball, and his accuracy and solid technique on big points remind me a little bit of Federer. The fact that his swings are so technically sound let him execute regardless of the moment. For Swiatek, a big strength seems to be altering her swing/arm to create the shot she wants, but this often leads to muscling the shot more than really making the purest contact. Again, minor holes that she’ll plug up, and when there are only really two issues and you’re already the champ, it’s a scary prospect (or a great one if you love the sport) for your opponents.

I don’t think Bencic can win this match, but she’ll likely make things very difficult for Iga. Her serving can be really solid, and her ability to take her backhand inside out will let her test Swiatek’s forehand and get to net on some points. Against someone not completely comfortable on grass, you want to rush them a bit, so I’d expect Bencic to slice the ball a bit even on her forehand wing, and to try to utilize dropshots when she can. For Swiatek, the path is simple. Bencic is great, but the net can become a worthy obstacle at times. If Iga is extending rallies and hitting hard, she will be the more consistent player over the course of the match. Bencic could capitalize on some good offensive play and steal a set, but I think Swiatek would regroup and beat her in any third set scenario. Their previous meetings have gone 2-1 to Swiatek (not including a forfeit in Doha 2023), and this one is tricky but probably goes her way as well. Swiatek in 2-3.

Azarenka vs Svitolina

Azarenka is never an easy game. I consider her one of the best strategists on tour, and the way she continues winning despite having lost a step on her speed is pretty impressive on a tour with as much depth as the WTA. When the tennis is that good, I can ignore a few waheee’s per rally. Azarenka beating Kasatkina may have been partially due to fatigue on Kasatkina’s part, but it puts her in a really wide open section of this draw. Swiatek is a generational talent in terms of her results, but Rybakina and Sabalenka are the two names I picture people wanting to avoid here.

It’s isn’t exactly smooth sailing for Azarenka here, as Elina Svitolina seems to be back to her old self on defense. Kenin carried a great level into the first set with Svitolina, but when she didn’t get the tiebreaker it felt as if she was very far from the finish line. Nerves may have played a slight part in things, as she seemed a bit tense in the second set, but this is all part of the climb back to the top. It was a great tournament for Kenin, and her tennis is really enjoyable to watch so she’ll have people pulling for her in New York, where it’s easy to see her making a deep run after getting another month or two of tennis in.

Svitolina doesn’t really go for a lot, but forcing her opponent to create all the offense seems to be working so far. Azarenka is a similarly consistent player, but she looks to work the point gradually and test her opponent’s defensive technique. It reminds me of a good fighter like Adesanya testing which feints work in the first round, and it’s refreshing seeing that old schools style of tennis that her and Federer and Benneteau and those tacticians can bring to tennis. Gushing aside, I don’t think Azarenka is going to win this match. Svitolina is playing well, and her speed is going to make it tough for Azarenka to hit through her. She also can move the ball through the court with time, something Kasatkina is not really known for. Svitolina in 2-3.

ATP Singles

Rublev vs Bublik

I’m eating a Twix bar right now and coming up with buddy cop movie ideas for these two. So far the best is a buddy cop movie where Rublev and Bublik keep getting outsmarted by a pesky raccoon who constantly steals Rublev’s sandwiches, only for Bublik to reveal at the end that he’s been working with the raccoon the entire time and splitting the sandwiches 50/50. Unfortunately, they cannot split the Wimbledon title 50/50, so tomorrow one of these legends will go home. Bublik has been completely unplayable this week. His last match, he hit a highlight reel’s worth of incredible shots in just one tiebreaker alone to close out against Marterer, and he is guaranteed to have a bunch of crowd support because, honestly, he plays the kind of tennis that people want to see. I respect the grinders and baseliners, but I want to see chaos. Gimme someone who can hit such a ridiculously wacky shot that them bowing after the point actually makes me laugh. I’m tired of tennis pros telling the crowd to applaud more than they already are. Do something that makes me jump out of my seat. Bublik is a baller, and it feels like a guilty pleasure at times because his shot selection does make him lose matches. If he’s winning though? No guilt. Bublik’s serve has been unreturnable, and it makes it really difficult to break him. Despite being impatient in rallies, Alexander can put together some really solid baseline points, and since he’s feeling comfortable now he’s not overhitting his forehand as often. Variations in pace are a really difficult thing to deal with when you finally get into a point with a servebot, because you’re intrinsically torn between going safe or taking the opening you normally would to play offense. Despite Bublik’s best form, I still think Rublev has an edge here in rallies. He is crushing his forehand and has overwhelmed pretty much every opponent. Goffin was getting close but Rublev just wore him down a bit and errors came while he had momentum late in the match. Rublev is serving as well as I’ve seen him, but it’s still not exactly unreturnable. Bublik’s height and ability to chip and block the ball back mean Rublev will get a chance to play a lot of rallies with him, which could be a problem or a bonus.

Taking a server’s legs out is the ideal path. There are plenty of guys on tour who look to keep Isner in rallies early in the matches or when they’re up in their service game. If Rublev can control rallies and get himself time with good serving, he can wear down Bublik a little. It’s tough to dropshot off a ball going as fast as Rublev’s delivery, so Bublik may be a bit frustrated in sections. Bublik won their meeting in Halle, but conditions here are a bit slower, and Rublev is playing a notch above his early grass season level despite only eating 50% as many sandwiches. I’m expecting this to take a lot out of both mentally and physically, and it’s really great to see some of the second tier guys levelling up in big moments. Siding with the bigger hitter here, as he’ll have fewer choices and strategy adjustments to make during the match and I think this will let him get into a higher state of focus. Rublev in 5.

Safiullin vs Shapovalov

Safiullin is not a regular on tour, but he seems to match up well against the top players. He has great power and a big serve, and plays a bit like Karatsev in that he just thunks away at the ball until it works. His backhand is very solid but is the weaker wing as far as offensive production. After beating RBA and Pella, I’m convinced he’s at or near his peak. This is a real difficult out for anyone, and he’s in good form. For some reason, it’s hard to count Shapovalov out though. Against Broady, Shapo looked like a grade A bitch at times He was complaining about everything, and it felt unfortunate as an observer because it overlooked how well Broady was playing. Liam had a great tournament, and raging at the moon because you can’t beat him easily while making 60 unforced errors is a bit shortsighted. Luckily for fans, Denis eventually settled into the match. He cut down the errors, and he served extremely well on some big points. Sometimes you just need to eat the Ls. The more you accept and eat them, the less they bother you, and the more freely you can perform in the moment when one is approaching. Shapovalov needs more matches like this, where he’s losing to the usual unforced errors and impatience and manages to turn it around.

Shapo’s best level is the best level on tour, and he has proven this a handful of times already. Grass suits him because a slightly riskier approach can pay dividends, and Broady seemed to tire physically just enough for Shapovalov to start getting time. When he’s rushed, it doesn’t really matter who is across the net. Shapo makes errors when he doesn’t have time because he is always willing to trade power. That makes me somewhat nervous against Safiullin, because he’s a bit error prone also but doesn’t throw in the rally ball errors that Denis does. Shapoval has the bigger serve here, and I actually think he can level up here. Barrere played very well, but his single speed approach seemed to play Shapovalov into form. I have a good feeling that Shapo is a guy who’s very hard to beat in practice matches, and Safiullin having a similar game to Barrere could see Shapo get played into form quickly again. Safiullin’s run would be incredibly impressive, but I think it’s really big for tennis if Shapovalov gets close to a big title right now. Things are going good for him off the court, and I think he’s in a good place physically as well. Based off the matches we’ve seen thus far, Safiullin wins this in 4. Shapovalov is just not consistent, and Safiullin is peaking. I’m happy to be wrong cuz it’s good for the tournament, but Safiullin in 4.

Sinner vs Galan

Daniel Galan is grasscourt tennis. Another solid win for him against Ymer, and a fun match here against Jannik Sinner. These two have somewhat similar swing production, so I’m expecting this to have really good rallies. Galan is really fast and hits a pretty flat trajectory, and Sinner is really good at trading these low shots, generally sending them back with interest. I think Sinner will be a bit puzzled if he encounters adversity in the scoreline early, so it’s really important that Galan serve well early. Sinner tends to be a slow starter, but as the match goes on he levels up. He does throw in a good amount of unforced errors, so a consistent baseliner like Galan will like see a bunch of break points here. If he can play them well and stingily, Sinner may get a little frustrated.

Jannik isn’t really serving well enough yet on tour that he just puts away players like these, but there isn’t really a hole in his game for Galan to exploit. I think Sinner hits bigger off both wings, and their serving is pretty similar. Sinner in 4.

Hurkacz vs Djokovic

Two points into the match against Wawrinka it was clear that Djokovic couldn’t lose. He just opens up any angle you hit a tiny bit more, daring you to go for something. Everyone does well on serve early as well, but once he gets a read you just start to dread the ball coming back. At the end of the match, Wawrinka had 5-3 in the tiebreaker but didn’t really look like he knew why. It was a good level of tennis, with Stan starting to go for broke on his forehand down the line, but he just seemed a bit confused by the Djokovic puzzle and he lost 4 points in a row to lose the match. Djokovic is a favorite at most Wimbledon’s, and it’s often anti-climactic as he rolls these early and late draw hopefuls, but this year is different. If he wins Wimbledon, the US Open becomes one of the most exciting events in recent sporting history. The Calendar Year Grand Slam, immediately after the other two big 3 members take leave from the tour, is incredibly intriguing. Given the loss to Medvedev at the USO last time he was going for this, there’s extra sauce. Add in how many players on tour seem to play some of their best tennis at this event (Alcaraz, Tiafoe, Medvedev, Sinner, even wackass Zverev), and it is going to be a ridiculously good event. I’m pulling for Djokovic here, and this is the first match where I think he’s going to have trouble.

Hurkacz is landing a really good percentage of his first serves. He was around 70 against Musetti, and around 80 in the previous round. You literally need this against Djokovic, because on second serves he’s basically choosing what part of the court he wants to drag you into. Hurkacz’s baseline play is a bit conservative for me, but against Djokovic this is not the worst. Since his usual play is such that he sees a good chunk of long rallies, he’ll be comfortable hanging in there against Novak in the spots where Djokovic is just looking to wait for an error on a big point. Hurkacz also serve and volleys well, which is pretty much essential if you don’t want to get exhausted against Novak. The problem for me is that I think Djokovic serves at least as effectively as Hurkacz. It’s not as powerful a delivery, but he locates it well and can dial up a bit extra on a big point. Hurkacz will look competitive in the scoreline, but I don’t think he can score as easily on Djokovic as Djokovic can on him. Expecting a really peaceful and skilled match. Djokovic in 4.