2023 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Round 4 Monday Matches 🐢

Early rain expected in Wimbledon, so there’s a good chance some of the first matches will be played under a roof.

Little comp update. m2407 has squeaked past vk2499 in the WTA bracket comp, but vk still leads the ATP by 12 points. “Businessman” still leads the odds comp.

ATP Singles

Alcaraz vs Berrettini

Welp. Cancel Djokovic and Alcaraz. Matteo Berrettini is looking pretty much unbreakable, and Alcaraz has just struggled with a less accurate server whose baseline game is not as sharp. Alcaraz won in 4 sets, but he was down a break in that 4th and I’m not sure if he’ll be able to break Berrettini as readily as he was Jarry (if he gives up the lead). Berrettini faced only one break point against Zverev, who is arguably a more experienced returner on grass. His return to form is extremely welcome, and after he left the court in Stuttgart in tears, it’s also extremely surprising. Physically, he seems fine, and he has always been one of the more clutch players on tour in terms of execution, so a big match is the perfect environment for him.

Alcaraz being in trouble here is probably the best thing for the tour. If he isn’t tested, he won’t improve, and if he’s able to elevate and win this match, the conversation about troubling Djokovic can get a bit more buzz. While Zverev in straight sets is a good win, Zverev possesses the mental toughness of a terrier that has seen its reflection in a mirror. He’s working on it, but the difference between him and Alcaraz is huge in terms of resilience and stability on court. Alcaraz’s speed is also the best on tour. I think that will be a big key here since Berrettini has been pretty comfortable when he’s gotten forehands and control of rallies. Alcaraz’s defense and ability to put the extra ball back in play can force players to go a little bigger than they want to and trying to rush shots can yield errors even off simple shots as we saw today from Svitolina late in the match (though she won).

I see that Alcaraz is -230 for this one, which is pretty low. You won’t really see Alcaraz as an underdog or even close to a pickem at this point in his career unless he’s playing someone in the top 10 who is also in tremendous form and playing in advantageous conditions, so this is a price Alcaraz can lose at. I think the math here is pretty simple, Berrettini is rolling playing that Alcaraz would probably defeat, but not in any significantly better fashion. This is an even matchup because of Berrettini’s serve, the surface, and Alcaraz’s inexperience. Carlos could still win, and it should be very close, but Berrettini has had success against him in the past (their total previous sets stand 6-5 in favor of Alcaraz) and I think it makes a big difference if you understand the pace and weight of shot that you’re going to be dealing with before you play Alcaraz. Expecting a classic here. Berrettini in 4-5.

Dimitrov vs Rune

Don’t bring me your 8-7 40-15, I’m still trying to process my 6-6 8-8. Davidovich Fokina played a tremendous match against Holger Rune. He was consistent, he was aggressive, he came up with heroic offense, and unbelievable gets. He was a bit outmatched in the serving department, but he took care of his well. By the time they got to a 5th set tiebreak, not much was between them. Rune’s swings being so technically solid make him able to execute in big moments, and I’ve noticed that he starts to rush things when the moment is big. For most players, this leads to errors, but Holger tends to come up with aces and clean winners and really apply pressure when the match is late and it’s a tough puzzle to solve.

Despite his elevated level, Fokina jumped out to an early lead in the tiebreak. Rune was inching his way back, but they arrived at 8-8 on Fokina’s serve. He’d been getting inside the baseline on pretty much every Rune return so far, and he was landing/winning something like 70-80% of his first serve points in that section of the match. I understand the perception that you’ve lost momentum when a player makes a comeback, but it takes an elevated physical/mental output to dig back in the scoreline, so as the leader you need to keep in mind your opponents mental state is hopeful at best. Fokina decided to launch an underhand serve, seemingly before he even had a chance to think it over, and Rune (who is fast af) got there quickly, hit a pass, and served a winner to end the match. It was a painful thing to watch for Fokina fans, but after thinking it over I’m okay with the choice. Was it the optimal decision? Nooooo. Was it on brand for him and a tactic he often utilizes? Yup.

Big risks often have big rewards. Despite Fokina being one of the most entertaining and challenging opponents in the majors these past few seasons, he’s not a mainstream name. He’s not likely to win a big title because it takes him so many 5-setters to navigate through a draw, but he’s going to have a lot of opportunities because his game is so complete that most lower tier players can’t beat him in a long format. If he wins that point, in that manner, he’s an overnight star. The play makes mainstream news, the legend grows, and I love Rune’s recently developed ability to fight through adversity, but losing an underhand serve point at 8-8 would pretty much guarantee he got broken on the next serve. We all make mistakes, but it feels somewhat results oriented to lambast the underhand serve there.

For Rune, it’s a great win. He’s opened as a +120 underdog against Dimitrov, which actually seems accurate. Dimitrov is in great form, and didn’t blink against Tiafoe in the last round. He broke multiple times in each set, and it was a spot that I sort of expected him to regress in so it’s a great sign. Rune’s slight inexperience and discomfort on grass are the key here, as I think Rune beats Dimitrov on all other surfaces. Dimitrov serves bigger than Fokina, but he’s not quite as versatile from the baseline or as smart about shot selection. I think Dimitrov would be a bigger favorite in a 2/3 format, but he likely still should win here. The question last round was whether Dimitrov would be intimidated by Tiafoe, and I think the question this round is whether he can sprint past a player who is likely to be more consistent in the long run. Is it time to believe in Dimitrov again? Should I answer that text from my ex? Yes! Dimitrov has displayed much better tennis and Rune’s only path here is to serve extremely well and look to hang in until Grigor’s level tapers off. I thought Fokina would beat him, and Dimitrov has just dismissed someone who would likely beat Fokina in 5. Dimitrov in 4.

Just a quick aside as I know some people bet on tennis. The late rounds of tennis tournaments have some of the most exciting matches, but some of the least value. Are there really players left whose form or ability it seems profitable to fade? At a certain point, this answer is no. Here, everyone is playing extremely well, and most of the h2h results you’re going to be reviewing are not peak vs peak situations. If a player is 1-1 lifetime in a matchup, and you’re using h2h data as a deciding factor, that means you would have lost the second time they played. The differences in levels between the top 100 is not really that drastic, and a lot of the results depend on who is playing their best that week. The books also get a lot sharper with pricing in the late rounds, and they have significantly more health info than you since they have insiders in the locker rooms/stands and communicate with the players’ camps.

While there are favorites and expected outcomes here, at this point in an event there really aren’t too many results that you would be completely shellshocked by. Since you’re paying absurd fees (juice) to bet sports, this just means that it isn’t the best market to make purchases in. In realtime, the odds are not that generous as well. It may be frustrating to miss out on the one time a season that a big name loses, but if your friend offered you just +120 to bet against Dimitrov after he left Tiafoe on 2,2,2, you’d tell them to go jump in a lake. Similarly, if your friend wanted you to pay a premium to pick Dimitrov, you’d be hesitant since he’s had so many letdowns in his career.

Having to hope for a particular outcome can also make it tough to enjoy what would otherwise be a wildly entertaining match. Lastly, I know most are not doing this professionally, but most people who try to bet sports often wind up doing it nonstop until they cash out or go broke. This strikes me as odd, because even in an employer employee environment you still get a weekend. Try to make your money, but take days off to enjoy the sport. It’s generally when you abstain from the lines and watch the match that you learn the most about what the pricing strucutures mean, and seeing the Ls you would have taken is a great way to plug leaks in your overall approach. Lastly, the fomo of “I would have won” can be bothersome, but ghostbetting matches is also fairly rewarding. We all have egos, and being right feels good even if it doesn’t come with a paycheck. I’ll get off my soapbox now, because it’s time to craft a story about how Jiri Lehecka can beat Daniil Medvedev.

Lehecka vs Medvedev

HERE WE GO JIRI HERE WE GO! The best thing for me about a surprise run at a majors is imagining that the improvement is not done. For Lehecka, the potential upside is huge. He has proven to have a great ability to play offense without errors on his forehand wing, and outdueling Tommy Paul means that you hit an incredible amount of shots. It also means that you served well. Lehecka’s spot serving is helping him a lot this week, and his movement on the grass seems very good. Heading into this next match, I’m not sure if he can get the job done, but I think he’ll be competitive.

Medvedev’s game does seem like it could be tweaked a little to make him very successful on grass. He has a flat delivery on his first serve, and he keeps the ball low over the net off both wings. So far though, he’s having a similar issue to clay in this event, which is that the ball is not really travelling through the court as it does on hardcourt. Luckily, Medevedev is able to extend points and stay in neutral rallies just as good as anyone on tour, and it will take a lot of work to beat him. Fucsovics was in good form, and did win a set, but he just couldn’t create offense often enough to really look like a threat. I think Lehecka possesses a more accurate and more varied offense, as well as a bigger serve. Physical issues probably shouldn’t play a huge role, because prior to the 5-setter with Paul Lehecka cruised to two straight set victories against Cerundolo and Ofner.

In a 2/3 format, I think I’d give Lehecka a good shot here, but in this long format it will take a lot of ballstriking for him to win. Him and Tommy Paul had extended rallies, but Tommy is looking to go for his own shots way more than Medvedev. Daniil makes it clear that he’s not going to give you any pace, and that he’s not going to make any errors. It’ll be a good test of Lehecka’s mental ability to see how much he’s able to measure his shots and keep the upper hand against servebot who’s somehow also one of the top 5 defenders on tour. I’m expecting Medvedev’s slightly volatile/results oriented mentality to cost him a set here when his passive play allows Lehecka to implement his crisp and accurate offense, but Medvedev probably can outlast him. Jiri is capable of playing even with Medvedev, but he hasn’t yet won a match of this caliber at Wimbledon so it’s a wait and see situation for me. Medvedev in 4-5.

Eubanks vs Tsitsipas

Lovely play from Eubanks this week. His forehand is starting to really cook and he doesn’t seem pressured to end rallies when he’s hitting it. Full commitment to the technique, and good footwork to get set for the shots are making me a believer. O’Connell was able to push each set to a tiebreak, but he really didn’t have a way to apply pressure to Eubanks’ service innings, and Eubanks was overpowering him in rallies on the big points. Chris has a really nice one-handed backhand, which had been a misfiring cannon for a few seasons but is starting to really find its range. All this means that Eubanks will be competitive in the scoreline against pretty much anyone left in the event (not you, Djokovic).

Tsitsipas has played himself into form this week. 5 setters with Thiem and Murray are pretty rough, but he looked dominant and comfortable against Djere. His serve/forehand combo are good enough to hold serve most of the time against Eubanks, and physically he’s able to go the distance which he may have to since Eubanks is a servebot and Stefanos struggles returning serve off his backhand wing. I think in an early round this might go Eubanks’ way, but here I think Tsitsipas will able to use his footspeed and forehand to give Eubanks a bunch of trouble during rallies. O’Connell was at a slight mismatch on every swing, but here Eubanks is only really even on the serve. Tsitsipas’ backhand is poor, but it’s more durable than Chris’ in the long run. Tsitsipas in 4-5.

WTA Singles

Jabeur vs Kvitova

Ons took a while to get momentum in her match against Andreescu, but eventually she got the job done. It was a tricky match as Andreescu possesses a lot of power and is capable of uncorking offense from any position. It was a good quality match, but it raises question marks about Jabeur’s chances in the next round. Petra Kvitova had a difficult time with qualifier Stevanovic, whose slice-heavy approach might let her fare well in the North America swing if she chooses to compete. The second set went to overtime, but Kvitova was able to refocus and close out for a 6-3, 7-5 win. It’s been a really impressive run for Kvitova, who won Berlin and has only dropped one set to Paolini in round one.

A good serving performance from Kvitova can win this match. Jabeur is playing well, but this hasn’t been the best stretch for her on tour. Lacking confidence can really impact a player who has some tough losses in big moments, and Kvitova in her best form is a 50/50 prospect against anyone so even if Jabeur were at her best, this would still be close. Kvitova leads the h2h 4-1, and grass is likely her best surface. The tricky part in backing Kvitova is how difficult it can be for her to win extended rallies. Jabeur has a lot of power and a good service delivery, so this is more likely to be a shootout decided by big points than a baseline battle. Since it’s a serving battle, I’m leaning into Kvitova being slightly more able to produce. This is terribly close, as are most of the Monday WTA matches. Kvitova in 3.

Haddad Maia vs Rybakina

Elena Rybakina sprinted past Katie Boulter in a 6-1, 6-1 victory that reminded us all how unplayable she can be at her best. It appears that her illness is no longer an issue, which sets up a really interesting clash against Bella Haddad Maia. BHM found a really good level against Cirstea, one that basically left Cirstea struggling to find her way out of rallies. She hit a bunch of shots that were rejected by the net, and it was a pretty difficult for an offensive talent to find momentum when Haddad was also hitting the ball extremely hard.

Rybakina is going to be the favorite in every match she plays here at Wimbledon, but this is likely her toughest baseline test left. Haddad Maia leads the h2h 2-0, and while this is an entirely different situation, both those results were in 2023 so Haddad Maia will at least feel fairly confident. If Rybakina is not at her best, she could bow out here. It’s hard to really get in depth about the situation, because Rybakina at her best beats everyone on tour, and her losses tend to be a bit puzzling, and rife with unforced errors. I do think Bella will win a set here, but Rybakina’s offense just gives her a pretty good edge on grass and I think she’ll be able to score on her serve a bit easier than Haddad Maia which will pay dividends in pressure moments. Rybakina in 3.

Keys vs Andreeva

Marta Kostyuk had some early break points, but Madison Keys quickly pulled away in their match. She has a way of getting through rounds so quickly that she’s almost always fresh for the big matches, and this one might be a big one. Mirra Andreeva beat Potapova in straight sets, and the thing that impressed me most about the win is how well Potapova played. Andreeva had lost to Gauff in Roland Garros by getting outhit. She was able to hang in and get to a third, but she always looked like she had to hit multiple shots and really struggle to protect her serve, and scrambling on the baseline isn’t the best formula for a win. Potapova started off crushing the ball and didn’t stop, yet Andreeva was able to end a number of rallies with winners and also seemed pretty even. The grass seems to be giving her a little bit of an equalizer in terms of ballstriking, and she’s one of the most interesting players left in the draw because every match is a “CAN SHE DO IT?”

Keys should have a big edge here on serve. Andreeva only served 53% first serves against Potapova, and she only won 53% of those point (kinda cool). She saved 71% of her break points, but there were 21 of them. Keys isn’t the consistent ballstriker that Potapova is, but she has equal power and a way more effective service game. Keys is a tremendous frontrunner, and given the way Andreeva spiralled a bit focus-wise against Gauff, I think there’s a good chance that Madison ends the phenom’s run. The flipside is that I don’t really rate Keys from the baseline. She can trade power well, but Andreeva is already a more consistent player and a better defender. Keys is fast, but it’s explosive movement and Andreeva is out there like Spiderman on the baseline (Spidermandreeva?).

This is a much tougher match than Kostyuk because of how consistent Andreeva can be, but she made 45 unforced errors against Potapova and I think she’ll need to adjust her gameplan here. Keep Keys moving, and don’t take too many risks. Keys at her best will beat her, but outlasting her is possible. Expecting a close match, and I started out today thinking I liked Andreeva, but I think Keys is a little too strong and the erratic play I’m picturing from her isn’t really present when she’s in her best form. Keys in 2-3.

Alexandrova vs Sabalenka

Huge spot here for both players. Sabalenka proved that her baseline ability is there as well as her serving, beating a very tenacious Anna Blinkova 6-3, 6-2. Alexandrova didn’t seem so solid against Brengle (90 unforced errors and three tiebreakers), but she got past Galfi 0,4 and it sets up a match that she’ll be relatively comfortable in. Alexandrova leads the h2h here 3-2, but I don’t think you can count most of those matches towards this. Sabalenka has only recently become consistent, and her attitude on and off court has developed greatly in the past 5-6 months. She’s hungry, and it’s paying off.

Alexandrova has a great backhand, and easy power in her forehand. I don’t really expect Sabalenka to run down multiple offerings from her, but Aryna hits the ball big enough that it might be tough for Alexandrova to create easily. The edge I’d point to here is on serve. Sabalenka has a much bigger serve than Alexandrova, who can struggle with her first serve percentage. It was 63% in her match against Galfi, but your first serve percentage is going to thrive when you’re up big in the scoreline. The -250 +200 price looks incredibly trappy, but I’m guessing that’s because of Alexandrova’s past success. In truth, these are two huge hitters and it’ll be hard for either player to easily impose their will. This time, I think Sabalenka is the more consistent player. Sabalenka in 3.