2023 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Quarterfinals Wednesday Matches 🐢

ATP Singles

Alcaraz vs Rune

Impressive stuff for Alcaraz and Rune in round 4. Alcaraz had a really tough test against Berrettini, but he gave him the same defeat that he usually gets from players at the top tier of the tour. Berrettini started off well, but he seemed to be just a half step too slow laterally to beat Alcaraz from the baseline. This meant he often was forced to go big down the line on the run just to create enough time for him to have a chance to recover back to center. The net gets involved quickly when you’re pulling the trigger on this shot, and again it seems like Berrettini protecting his backhand leaves him a bit susceptible to getting out late to the forehand corner. It’s fine to leave it open against lower tier players and tempt them to go there, but Alcaraz hits the ball too fast. Berrettini’s legs also seemed to slow down as the match progressed, and it feels like guys of a certain caliber just have a clear formula for beating him. I wasn’t sure that Alcaraz was at that caliber on grass, but despite dropping sets he has marched through this draw.

Rune and Dimitrov was expected to be mostly about Dimitrov’s level, and to his credit he played very well. Early on things were pretty even, and it seemed like Dimitrov’s ability to put half-volleys and the extra stretch forehand back into tough positions was bothering Rune. I give Holger a lot of credit for being patient in this match. Often when a player has control of the rally and the other guy hits a lucky or deep defensive return, they’ll try to force the issue anyway. Rune is content though to just put these balls back in play. Resetting the rally is an undervalued tool in racquetsports, and since the mental game is so big in these spots it’s huge to make your opponent earn a point where they’re likely feeling a bit less than 100% after some solid gets.

As the match progressed, Dimitrov’s level started to drop a little. He was able to remain on even terms in rallies, but slight errors started to creep in on the final shot. It seemed like his backhand didn’t have the power to hit past Rune, and he made some errors trying to overcook the shot at the end of long rallies. His forehand lost a little range, but his serve kept him in the match until late. One of the breaks to end a set did come off of two double faults, but Rune really earned this one so Dimitrov should be proud of his effort. Again, Rune’s level goes up in the big moments. Not to harp on the underhand serve from ADF, but that is a tactic that won’t work against Holger. He enjoys tennis. He isn’t worrying about missing because he’s done the prep and he knows his ability. The underhand can catch someone overthinking or trying to compose themselves in the moment, but if you look at Rune before a point he is focused on the play and generally beats his opponent to the line. He’s not the highest profile player from this junior crop, but by winding up in these middle sections of the draw he’s getting a ton of big-match experience in pressure situations. This will be invaluable when he’s a bit older and stronger.

There are a few matches in this round that just feel like they’re difficult stylistic matchups. Alcaraz and Rune are very similar players, but Alcaraz is a bit stronger and a bit faster. Rune beat him in Paris (or earned a forfeit), but that was a version of Rune whose energy levels were off the charts. I do think that Rune is the ideal opponent to push Alcaraz, but it might be difficult for him to score. Holger probably would have been a 50/50 prospect with Dimitrov had it been a 2/3 format, and Alcaraz has already beaten this version of Dimitrov in straight sets. I just think Alcaraz is a little bit better in every department, although his serving may not be as reliable as Rune’s. Rune can get a little bit careful with his shots at times, and I think rolling the ball in or leaving it short is a bad situation against Alcaraz because he’s shown great ability to infuse his own pace off of slow shots. This was on display in his Indian Wells win against Medvedev, and I think it’ll be the case here. -400 feels fair for the outcome, but given the quality of both players it’s not clear how long it will take to get there. Rune can and will compete, and I only expect Alcaraz to be a game better than him in each set. Could be a classic. Alcaraz in 4-5.

Eubanks vs Medvedev

Bit of an oof here for Tsitsipas. Up two sets and playing the best tennis he has at the Wimbledon championship, it seemed like Eubanks Cinderella run was over. This man refuses to lose a shoe though, and if he wants to ride around in a pumpkin I bet it’ll look good. I thought Tsitsipas’ backhand would prove more reliable over the course of the match, but it was Eubanks in the end who felt more comfortable taking full swings. The one-hander down the line is one of the most aesthetically pleasing shots in tennis, and Eubanks is crushing it. This is a career-changing moment, with Eubanks up to 31 in the live rankings, and it’s only the beginning. This kid is going to win matches on hardcourt, and he is going to be a significant problem in the indoor swing. I could see him settling into that Isner role on tour, where he’s in the top 20-30 for the next 10 years. It’s so good for American tennis to have different styles winning on tour also, because the “one more Roddick” plan set the USTA back a little since so many of our players are a bit behind in the backhand department.

Eubanks is through to his first major quarterfinals, but he has a really tough matchup here. Medvedev isn’t exactly a grass specialist, but he looked very sharp in the last round and he’s dismissed two very in form players in Mannarino and Fucsovics. Lehecka unfortunately had a blister on his toe and had to withdraw, but in the brief time the match was on Medvedev seemed to be hitting the ball harder than he did at the start of the season, and he was serving extremely well. The serve is the one reason I think (for the second time) that Eubanks’ run will come to an end. Tsitsipas was holding serve fairly easily against Eubanks, and with a less varied delivery than Medvedev. Another reason is return ability. Tsitsipas’ returning can be very poor, especially with his backhand. Medvedev’s height and wingspan give him a much better shot, and he’s capable of adopting deep return positions and still putting the ball in play so he’ll have time to work out the best options in this format. Medvedev also is extremely good at hitting passing shots, so overall he has the best chance of anyone so far at shutting down the Eubanks serve.

There’s no guarantee that ability guarantees results here. Eubanks can get himself to tiebreakers, and he is hitting the ball quick and clean enough to score on Medvedev. There will be a lot of pressure on Daniil here if he gets down in the scoreline, so I think this will be an exciting matchup. They played earlier this season in Miami, and Medvedev won 7-5, 6-3 against a less adept Eubanks in more favorable conditions for Daniil. Medvedev has struggled against big servers before, but those matches stand out in my mind. This is the round where a lot of players get checked by the top 2-3 players in the world, and despite playing second fiddle to Djokovic for the last few seasons, Medvedev has been at that top level of tennis for a while. Chris should put on a show, but I think Medvedev finishes off the lead that Tsitsipas was able to generate. Medvedev in 3-4.

WTA Singles

Jabeur vs Rybakina

Even if you’re not a big fan of the WTA, this is a match you need to watch. Last year’s championship was a roller coaster of emotions for Jabeur. She had the match under control, but Rybakina’s steady demeanor allowed her to hang in until things went her way. It was clearly a tough loss for Jabeur, and this year she has seemed a bit disinterested at times. Coming into this event she wasn’t at her best, and even a round ago she was playing well but not lights out tennis. Petra Kvitova came into their matchup looking like a threat for the title, and Jabeur proceeded to zip one of the biggest servers in the tournament. This sets up a rematch of last year’s final, with Jabeur having tons of momentum. It’s gonna be good.

Rybakina opened around -185, and $ quickly came in on Jabeur. I’m not so convinced honestly. Jabeur’s win was a result of her ability to quickly and cleanly move Kvitova off center during rallies. She hit a number of different offensive shots, and Kvitova just made errors off of each new exchange. It was stellar play from Ons, but I really doubt she’ll be able to score as easily on Rybakina. Leave it to Rybakina to fly under the radar at a tournament where she’s defending champion. She has held 32/33 service games, and was washing Haddad Maia before an injury caused her to retire. Rybakina also has the highest first serve speed in the tournament, so I’m not really sure that Jabeur’s win automatically spells victory. What it does spell, is a ridiculously good match for fans of tennis.

Rybakina is going to be hard to break. Her forehand and backhand are struck cleanly and to safe targets. She generally takes the ball cross-court, which minimizes errors, yet her swing production seems to wrong-foot opponents at times since her forehand is a mirror whether she goes up the line or cross. It’s really hard to win back to back tournaments, and Jabeur will have a lot of motivation here, but I’d like to see her crack the Rybakina puzzle before I jump on the bandwagon. Given Jabeur’s quick round 4, she should be 100% physically here which is good. I don’t think there will be many breaks of serve here, since both have the power and offense to hit past each other. In the end, I think Rybakina’s serve is slightly more reliable than Jabeur, so in a close match, I like her. Should be a marathon, and I do expect a tiebreak or two. Rybakina in 3.

Sabalenka vs Keys

I really expected Alexandrova to be competitive, but Sabalenka dismissed her 4,0. It speaks again to the big edge that Aryna has against the other huge offenses on tour; her movement and defensive skills are just more fluid. In a match between two servebots, the one with better skill from the baseline generally wins. This was a bit different since Alexandrova isn’t such a big server, but it still held that Sabalenka was able to put the ball in play much more often than Alexandrova in pressure spots and when she was on the defensive. It sets up a match which I think will go similarly, but the score here should be a lot closer.

Madison Keys was down a set and almost 5-1 to Mirra Andreeva, but managed to turn the match around. Generally, that makes me write a player off, but we’ve seen a few big comebacks/underdog wins this week turn into great play in the next round (Svitolina/Bouzkova/Eubanks). When Keys is on, her offense is nearly unplayable, but Andreeva was able to drag her into rallies throughout most of this match. From the baseline, Keys has great power but doesn’t have a great shot tolerance. This is where I think Sabalenka might be slightly more capable. Sabalenka’s swings are more technically sound which means she can adjust more and minimize errors. They’ll still be there, but I think that Keys’ ability to reflect power and make gets is usually where she falls short at the top level, so this match really hinges on Madison’s first serve percentage and ability to take her backhand down the line early and often. Aryna can get frustrated, and since she is a bit of a flow player she can drop a set due to a few errors in a late game. I’m expecting Keys to be competitive in the first and Sabalenka to win from there. Sabalenka in 2-3.