2023 Wimbledon Men's & Women's Quarterfinals Tuesday Matches 🐢

WTA Singles

Swiatek vs Svitolina

Both of these players will feel extremely fortunate to still be in the draw. Swiatek lost the first set for the first time in this event. She stepped up her level in the second, but Bencic didn’t falter. She maintained her belief and her aggressive shot selection and Swiatek really could have lost this match. As it went, Iga faced two match points while serving at 5-6 to get to the tiebreaker. Once she held, it felt somewhat inevitable that she would gain momentum, and she won the tiebreaker 7-2 and ran away with the 3rd set. It was a great showing for Bencic, and it should show others that despite her dominance, you can still score on Swiatek.

The one thing that is still lacking from Swiatek’s game is the recognition that it’s okay to just put the ball in play. When people bring power at her forehand, she’s very willing to hang in and try to send back something significant. Considering how quick she is, it wouldn’t be a disaster if she forced her opponents to play an extra shot or two, and upping her defensive decision-making would give her opponents an extra layer of puzzle to solve. On the flipside, Swiatek is aiming high. She has always been hyper-aggressive, and her ability to execute these shots has gone up over time. I just think there is sometimes value to showing extra composure in a situation where players are competing at a frantic pace. A lot of the greats will utilize a slice or a softer ball in a big point, and so often in tennis we see one player make it clear early on that they’re just not going to miss. This causes a lot of players to start forcing the issue which can results in simple victories.

Swiatek continues to mirror Nadal in her ability to pull away as a match extends, and Svitolina displayed echos of Rafa’s heart by leaving everything out on the court. The stats for the first set were very similar, but Azarenka was dominant in the scoreline. The h2h sat in Azarenka’s favor, and it was clear why watching this match. Azarenka is just much more aggressive from neutral during baseline rallies. She takes her forehand both directions and mixes in dropshots exceptionally well. It wasn’t until late in the second set that Svitolina won an exchange at net off of a Vika dropshot, and it wasn’t until late in the second set that Svitolina even seemed like she had a chance to win. Elina is one of the quicker and more stable defenders on tour, but it’s really difficult to hit through Azarenka when most of your patterns are cross-court, and Svitolina also likes to go right down the center of the court a lot, which is effective on grass, but is also a shot that Azarenka redirects well.

After gaining momentum with some very tense service games late in the second set, Svitolina finally broke. When she went up 3-0 in the 3rd set, it seemed like she’d run away with things, but Svitolina got a bit too aggressive returning and gave Azarenka a quick hold for 1-3. Momentum shifted as far as the mental duel, and Azarenka started to play more aggressive. This match ended in an epic tiebreaker that saw Azarenka leading until Svito finally tied things at 8-8. It really felt like a Bouzkova Garcia result where one player was a bit better, but the more resilient defender got the result. A big key in this match was Svitolina’s inside out forehand. She was able to score a bit easier late in the match with this shot, and she also served a bit better than Azarenka in the second half of the match. Overall, it’s been a great comeback for Svitolina, and the US Open should see her making a good run.

Discussing the US Open prospects while Svitolina is still in the tournament may seem crass, but I no longer think that defensive players can beat Swiatek. The Azarenka Svito match was incredibly tiring both physically and mentally, and Svitolina probably doesn’t win that match if you substitute Swiatek’s legs for Azarenka’s. Swiatek is a similarly adept baseliner to Azarenka, but she has way more power and this means she can score without having to work 3-4 shots. Svitolina’s solid hitting is likely to make this a long match, but it’s hard to see her scoring on Swiatek since she does tend to drift behind the baseline to ensure she keeps the ball in play. This feels like a “when” as far as Swiatek breaking rather than an “if”, and the quality of Aza/Svito was high but Swiatek/Bencic was a lot more aggressive. Swiatek in 2.

Pegula vs Vondrousova

The first few rounds for Vondrousova had me thinking that she would beat Pegula here. That hype train has stalled a bit after she took 3 sets to beat Bouzkova. Bouzkova is a wall, but I don’t really find her offense that effective so I thought Marketa would be able to get out to a lead and maintain it. If she’s struggling to hit through Bouzkova, it could be a bit tougher to do so against Pegula who hits a much flatter and faster ball. Pegula occasionally serves effectively as well, so this should be a very close match.

Pegula made fairly quick work of Tsurenko, who was still a bit fatigued from her marathon with Ana Bogdan. Getting a quick win while your opponent plays three sets is always a bonus, and Pegula is not really known for her grasscourt prowess but this past week has gone well. The Vondrousova Pegula matchup is brand new, and it’s an interesting one. Pegula hits a very flat ball, and can defend admirably but her losses tend to be due to impatience. When her shots are off, she can lose confidence quickly and make errors in bunches. This is a slight contrast with Vondrousova, who can emote with the best of them but tends to mix up her play based on the situation.

I think it will be hard for either player to really run away with this. Vondrousova is a really good defender, and she has more variation in her game but Pegula moves well so it’ll really be up to Marketa to keep the ball high on Pegula’s backhand and try to keep her first serve percentage up. Pegula is the bigger hitter here, but she’s somewhat predictable and might end up forcing things against Vondrousova who’s incredibly sticky during extended baseline rallies. The line isn’t giving me much info, with Pegula at -130. That’s likely to balance investment for the books and to mirror what most models are going to churn out. Vondrousova has the more impressive wins thus far, but Pegula has a lot of experience and is likely on the fresher legs since Vondrousova has gone through a much tougher batch of matches (Stearns, Kudermetova, Vekic, Bouzkova vs Davis, Bucsa, Cocciaretto, and a tired Tsurenko). Somewhat expecting Pegula to outlast Vondrousova here. Pegula in 3.

ATP Singles

Sinner vs Safiullin

Jannik Sinner had some early trouble against Daniel Elahi Galan, but he was still able to win in straight sets. He is quietly storming through this draw and has been looked at as automatic in most of these matches, with the main discussion surrounding him being about the Djokovic matchup potentially looming in the future. For the first time this tournament though, Sinner is facing a player who is stable enough from the baseline to pressure his service games, and strong enough offensively to handle his own. This doesn’t spell disaster for Safiullin, but it’ll be a good look for fans at Sinner’s level going into a round where he’ll be facing a terror (whether it’s Rublev or Djokovic). Am I writing off Safiullin? Lil bit, yes.

Roman Safiullin has just changed his career with this result. He’s up to 43 in the rankings and gets nearly half a million dollars if he loses here. It’ll be interesting to see how the influx of money affects his performance over the next few months, especially after Karatsev (similar game) had a bit of a slump after some of his first huge results. Safiullin got the better of Shapovalov in the previous round, and it wasn’t completely surprising. Shapovalov’s offense is always going to make him look competitive, but based off his play-style and temperament, he needs a new coaching influence, even if it’s just some external practice like ju-jitsu or yoga or reading sweet books to give him some discipline and patience. Based off talent and ability, Shapo should beat Safiullin in 4 at worst, but he just doesn’t seem to be willing to go to plan B and grind out the match when things aren’t going well.

Safiullin has a huge serve, and great power. If he has control of rallies, he can score on Sinner, but overall I think he likes to play at a slower tempo than Jannik generally does, and I think we’ll see him rushed into errors here and there. Jannik can be a slow starter, so Roman will have looks, but I think over the course of the match the difference in their defensive abilities and lateral movement on the baseline will become a factor. Sinner in 4.

Rublev vs Djokovic

Djokovic fans, please don’t take this the wrong way, but your guy is so comfortable out there that he doesn’t even seem like he’s affected by the scoreboard. Novak’s level of tennis right now is so high that he doesn’t even seem to be swinging hard yet in this event, and just occasionally dials up a big serve when he needs one. It looks at times like he’s playing table tennis while his opponents are playing golf, and it doesn’t matter what his opponent is doing, or what the score is, Djokovic advancing just seems assured. Jordan Thompson got to extra innings in two sets; never had a chance. Stan Wawrinka had two serves on his racquet at 5-3 in the 3rd set tiebreak; never scored another point. Hurkacz had minibreaks in every tiebreak played; basically only successfully made Djokovic have to wake up a bit earlier than he wanted to.

Hurkacz did manage to get the third, which was the first set dropped by Novak this tournament. Feeling like Hurkacz had no shot is pretty wild considering how well he was serving. There is no one left in the tournament with the level of serving he displayed against Djokovic (honorable mention to Eubanks), but Hurkacz was just lost in the sauce during rallies. He made a ton of errors with his forehand, and the chewed up baseline seemed to make it very tough for him to judge the bounces at times. Rublev seeing that Djokovic dropped a set will give him hope, but I don’t really think he can bring out the level of serving that Hurkacz did, and that means he has to beat Djokovic the hard way. That’s good news for us as fans, because we’ll get to see extended rallies for the first time.

Rublev is playing some of the best tennis of his career this week. He outdueled Bublik in the previous round who was playing at an absurd level, and it was a 3 and a half hour commitment to offensive pressure that allowed Rublev to get there. Bublik had his patches of dominance, and he made life difficult with dropshots and netplay, but Rublev hit every ball as hard as he could from 0-0 until the end and that forced Bublik to get a little too aggressive at times when he had control of rallies. Knowing you won’t get it back if you ease off can make you a bit predictable, because you’re always trying to look for the most aggressive shot. Here the shoe may be on the other foot. Rublev will have a hard time beating Djokovic from the baseline, but he should definitely mix in some power in traditional cross-court patterns a good chunk of the time instead of just going big to the open court on every shot. A player as good as Novak has to be kept honest, and since he had very few rallies against Hurkacz he might make some uncharacteristic errors.

As far as outcomes, I think there is a lot more to Novak’s game that we haven’t seen him have to use yet. He’s going to be able to apply pressure on Rublev’s serve, and he’s played him enough times (3-1 h2h with the lone loss being on clay) that he’ll be fairly comfortable with his patterns. Since all players thus far seemed to have a look at winning a set, I do think Rublev will as well. As well as he’s playing, it’s hard to picture him getting blanked, but I just think his service games will get progressively more difficult as the match stretches on and Djokovic’s serving is the best left in the tournament now that Hurkacz is out. Excited to see Novak step it up, and hyped for Rublev to be in his best form in the biggest stage. Djokovic in 4.