2023 Wimbledon Men's Semifinals 🐢

Alcaraz vs Medvedev

It almost feels bad to have Medvedev in this round. Chris Eubanks gave us a once in a lifetime performance over the past fortnight, and he saved some of the best for his match against Medvedev. The first was fairly straightforward, Medvedev was a bit more consistent and the two giants were about even on serve. From there the match took a very surprising turn. Eubanks was nearly unplayable on serve for the first 4 sets, but what really made a difference here was his clean hitting from the baseline. His footwork on the inside out forehand is the best I’ve seen from someone his height, and his backhand has improved so much in just the past few weeks. To have that kind of clean contact on grass, after years of struggling with length on hardcourt, is just amazing. Medvedev settled into the “just keep it in and earn the error” plotline, and Eubanks hit winner after winner.

Chris actually set a record for winners in this event with 321, passing Andre Agassi’s despite Agassi actually winning Wimbledon in 1992. In his match against Med, he recorded 72, which is unreal against Daniil’s defense. Unfortunately, his level dropped a bit late in the match, and there were 55 unforced errors to go along with the impressive winner count. This match looked similar to Cilic’s clashes with Medvedev. Daniil is content to just hang in until his opponent’s level drops off, but he really could have lost this match. The fourth went to a tiebreaker, and Eubanks had some looks at makeable shots to go ahead. Great resilient win for Medvedev, but he could have easily been out of this tournament.

I think Eubanks might have been an equally tough matchup for Alcaraz, but I’m happy to look over the Medvedev situation again. It really helps the debate to have watched the manner in which Alcaraz beat Rune. He seemed very comfortable with the situation, and played at a slower pace overall than usual, almost posing on a number of shots but still executing well. He was at his best for this match, and seemed to be in a very artistic mood.

Alcaraz took volleys out of the air on returns that were near the baseline and created dropshots, he was pretty much unbeatable in net scrambles, and when he had time to create, he ripped winners. That last one is the big key in this matchup. Medvedev can infuse pace, but he tends to play a little more passive when the scoreline is close. In Indian Wells, Alcaraz proved that with a full swing and his feet set, he’s relatively unplayable. It’s the same equation as playing Nadal in this regard, and Alcaraz on grass gets a boost of speed to his shots and some bad bounces that really don’t happen at IW. Indian Wells being the slowest hardcourt event of the year does remove serving from the equation though, and I didn’t think Medvedev’s shoulder looked 100% in that final. The previous round he served 28 aces, and his delivery was as good as I’ve seen it the entire event.

Alcaraz’s serve is one of the last debatable parts of his game, but it’s not bad at all. His serve doesn’t necessarily need to be an outright ace, just something that can get him inside the baseline. I really think that Medvedev is playing the Eubanks role here, and Alcaraz just has to hang in, maintain composure after the points where he gets aced, and keep looking to hit the ball hard. It sounds so simple, but when you hit bigger than your opponent and can keep the ball in court while doing so, tennis can be easy. Beating Rune in straight sets is impressive, but Rune looked a little flat at times, and seemed fatigued late in the match. I don’t think we’ll see this from Medvedev, so this should be a very competitive match. I just expect Alcaraz’s cumulative pressure to wear down Medvedev into some passive play and box yelling eventually, and for Medvedev’s serve to only be good for 1-2 sets won. Alcaraz in 4-5.

Sinner vs Djokovic

At the end of a very standard post-match interview, Djokovic dropped a gem on us. “I know they want a scalp, they want a win, but … it ain’t happening.” It was a rare glimpse of mischievous Djokovic that we don’t always get to see, but some of this is good in sports I think. There’s so much effort put into giving non-confrontational answers and stock quotes like “I’m just gonna focus on playing my tennis” that any soundbite that has personality in it is more than welcome. It’s one reason I stay for Medvedev’s post-match interviews; you know he’s actually going to answer honestly. Djokovic can sense that players are looking to end his dominance, and he likes seeing the ball go through the hoop. The challenger seems to be elevating his game, and again he has won a match where he didn’t seem to redline at all.

Rublev won the first set, and he was playing well. I don’t love his serve position against Djokovic. By standing a bit off center he makes it tougher for him to create big angles. Body serves do have a decent effect on Djokovic, but I think on grass the T serve is having the most effect and you’re just attacking a range of the court against Novak rather than making him pick between two serves. Complaints aside, Rublev hit a good percentage of first serves and really pressured Djokovic at times. What let him down here was his backhand. Once they got into crosscourt backhand exchanges, Rublev’s contact got a tiny bit worse on each swing, and errors came. Djokovic is just extremely solid, and it seemed like he picks a level to maintain from the start that he knows will eventually wear down a redlining opponent.

Sinner had a pretty good matchup for him against Safiullin, and he got the job done in impressive fashion. He’s had a relatively easy draw in terms of rankings, but his opponents have all been in great form. Jannik is not the guy we expect to beat Djokovic, but if I’m looking to send in a player to go toe to toe with him on the baseline and actually create some errors, Sinner is my guy. Problems for Sinner circle around his first serve percentage. He was at just over 50% against Safiullin, which is not going to cut it against Djokovic. I do think that’s how he’ll lose this match. Over time, Djokovic gets the returns deep into the court and he tends to go down the middle. Sinner, like Swiatek, tends to take these on rather than back up, and this can cause errors as you wind up between two minds : guide the ball in or try to stay on the front foot. The result is players often make solid contact and hit the ball right into the net. Bright points for Jannik are his ability to trade power, and his willingness (and ability) to go big while on the run. Djokovic can’t hang in predictable pockets like he could against Rublev’s somewhat readable shot selection, and Sinner also utilizes the dropshot and is willing to come to net.

Overall, Djokovic is just a little too consistent to lose here, but Sinner plays the style of tennis that’s required to beat him. You have to take your chances, and you need a really reliable swing on both wings to apply any pressure to his service games. I’m expecting Sinner to do the best of any contender so far, and I’m really wondering how Djokovic will start off the match given how close he is to the finish line. Sinner at his best is an even prospect, and I think he’s in a spot where there’s no pressure for him and decent conditions for his aggression to actually bother Novak. We’re in the semifinals already and it still doesn’t feel like Djokovic has been pressed into full exertion, but this will probably see him get there since there’s not much sense in conserving energy now. Djokovic in 4-5 (4 for sure if Sinner serves below 60% first serves, and 5 if Sinner plays the match of his life).