2023 Wimbledon Men's Round One

Alcaraz vs Chardy

After a disappointing but high-quality result in Roland Garros, Alcaraz is back as a top contender for another title. The ceiling that he needs to reach to win Wimbledon is something that seems widely regarded as beyond his current ability, but I don’t see him having trouble here until the third round where he might face Jarry. Chardy is seemingly on his retirement tour and doesn’t have enough matches to really be a problem here. He could be competitive in a set since he has great serving ability and a ton of experience, but Alcaraz just won London and he doesn’t seem inefficient on grass at all thus far. Alcaraz in 3.

Muller vs Rinderknech

Rinderknech finally got some momentum in Mallorca courtesy of a somewhat easy draw against ARV and Lestienne. He fell short against Eubanks, but it was a good showing. Him finding some form on grass should be good enough to beat Muller, but Muller has just won a challenger event on clay in Paris so you can expect that he’ll be rusty but not harmless in this matchup. Big edge for Rinderknech being a serve and volley player, but I really don’t love his physical ability at the top level so if Muller is returning serve he could be dangerous here. Rinderknech in 4.

Kubler vs Humbert

Humbert’s best surface is indoor hard, but grass has seen most of his heroic performances. He bested Zverev on the surface, he paused the FAA hype train at Wimbledon, and in typical Humbert fashion he has decided to keep us guessing by having a relatively poor grass swing this year. Losses to Peniston and Ruusuvuori are not the best, but luckily Humbert’s sole win on grass came against his opponent here. Kubler headed to Ilkley and won a Challenger after that L, so I’d expect this to be slightly more competitive, with a similar victor. Humbert in 3-4.

Cecchinato vs Jarry

Jarry has carried over his incredible claycourt play into the grass season and it’s really a welcome sight to see a servebot dominating the baseline. Cecchinato is just not the guy to pull a big grass upset here. Jarry in 3.

Zverev vs Brouwer

Pretty good opening test for Zverev. Brouwer was an underdog almost every round in qualifying but he came through with some excellent serving. He’s a bit better on clay, but being a very tall lefty with a huge serve makes you competitive against pretty much anyone on grass. Zverev is one of the few guys I’d expect to eclipse that advantage. Sasha’s backhand and height are a great equalizer against the lefty patterns, and he’s been in moderately good form in the past few weeks. Definitely expecting the Zverev De Minaur matchup in round 3. Zverev in 4.

Huesler vs Watanuki

Huesler’s movement is still the big hindrance to his game, but on grass a lot of people have this issue so it’s less pronounced. His serve and forehand are fairly effective, and he picked up a few decent wins in Eastbourne before losing to a red-hot Cerundolo. Watanuki had a disappointing final round loss in the qualifiers to Dennis Novak, but he’s a promising player so it’s good that he got the wildcard spot. I don’t think this will be as straightforward as their last few matches would suggest, because Watanuki returns very aggressively and focuses mainly on moving his opponent. This is the real hole in Huesler’s game, no matter how solid his offense is, he has a hard time getting out of sets quickly. Expecting Huesler in 4 here.

Berrettini vs Sonego

There are a handful of matches that are really hard to predict, and this is one of them. Matteo Berrettini made a quick exit against Sonego in the first week of the grass swing, and seemed to have tears in his eyes as he exited the court. It’s not reasonable to have expected to beat Sonego after having no matches on tour in such an extended period, so I’m assuming the tears were him knowing he had re-aggravated an injury. Since it was an abdominal injury, and since a major is a big paycheck, there’s no real way to know what his ability will be here. I expect him to be competitive in the early going but Sonego is going to know this is another great chance for him and he has good enough serving and a fast enough forehand to expose someone with core issues. Sonego in 3-4.

Coppejans vs De Minaur

Another heroic qualifier here. Coppejans won as an underdog in every round in qualifying, including a 5 set thriller against Taro Daniel and a straight set defeat of Zizou Bergs. These are good quality wins, but he’s drawn a monster here. De Minaur just doesn’t lose to guys ranked below him very often. He’s fresh off a finals run in London and he should thrive here. De Minaur in 3-4.

Tiafoe vs Wu

This is a tricky section of the draw but one that Tiafoe has a good chance in. He’s coming off a title in Stuttgart, and though he lost all his matches at Hurlingham, those matches don’t really matter much. There seems to be an unspoken agreement at the exhibition matches at Boodles and Hurlingham that everyone gets to play a bunch of tennis before anyone ends the proceedings, which is pretty standard to make sure the crowd gets a good show. In any event, Tiafoe is ready for a good run here. Grass tends to reward physical ability and core-strength, as well as big serving and flat hitting. His backhand is ideal for the surface with his short takeback, and his serve + forehand is one of the best on the big stage. Wu Yibing has become a regular on tour, but his grasscourt play has been less than stellar. Tiafoe should wrap this up in 4.

Popyrin vs Stricker

I wouldn’t expect Stricker to be favored here, but oddsmakers have opened this at a pickem. Looking at Popyrin’s recent results, it makes sense. A handful of exo losses, and L’s to Thompson and Fils in London are not ideal. Stricker is no worldbeater, but he was pretty solid in qualifying. If Popyrin is not at his best, he’ll get snagged here. It’s just odd to me that a guy who hits relatively flat and has a huge serve would struggle so much on grass, but Alexei has always had issues with consistency so I’m assuming that’s what it is. Willing to believe in the upset here just because the long format and slightly slower conditions lends itself to Popyrin entering some patches of unforced errors. Stricker in 5.

Ivashka vs Coria

Ivashka isn’t really great on grass, but he has at least played a bunch of matches. Coria has been off playing clay ,and in a serving battle I think Ivashka is a bit stronger overall. Should be a good match but the winner of Dimitrov/Shimabukuro will probably go to round three regardless of the victor. Ivashka in 3-4.

Shimabukuro vs Dimitrov

Tough test here for Dimitrov in round one. After a beautiful London run that ended in the usual fold against a big name, Grigor enters this tournament in some of his best form. He’ll have his hands full with Shimabukuro, who rolled grasscourt specialist Dennis Kudla in the final round of qualifying. I don’t believe he’s up to the task yet of beating Dimitrov, but his play this season shows that he is capable of making his way inside the top 100 by the time this event comes around next year. Dimitrov in 4.

Fils vs Davidovich Fokina

Something about Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s game makes me believe he’s going to win every match he plays. He’s just a complete player and that’s so rare to see. On grass, it has not seemed to bother his opponents much and he’s not been at his best. That opens the door for a slight upset here. Arthur Fils has already played a bunch of matches on grass, with wins against Popyrin, Grenier, Herbert, and Harris. Nothing that’s on paper as strong as ADF, but winning matches is a pretty good indicator of future results on grass. It seems like Fils serve being slightly more aggressive than ADF’s is paying dividends, and I expect him to be even at worst in this matchup. Leaning into the upset. Fils in 4-5.

Zhang vs Van De Zandschulp

It hurts me to even consider a Botic loss, but that’s what I have to do here. Van De Zandschulp is one of those guys whose offense and skill is at the top tier of the tour, but his physical output is not all the time. Grass does make offense more important, but his opponent here has shown the ability to elevate both parts of his game on the surface. Zhang had an incredible run in Mallorca this past week and his technique might not be ideal for the grass but his power is really paying dividends. If Botic is prepared to play, this should be pretty even. He has at least the same serving ability as Zhang, but the problem here is Zhang is coming in with the hot hand. He’s going to play well, and the slightly slower Wimbledon grass gives him more time in rallies where Botic is more varied but doesn’t hit as big. This is a 5 set classic if Botic is prepared but he hasn’t been sharp. Zhang in 4.

Arnaldi vs Carballes Baena

Matteo Arnaldi qualifying was a nice surprise. We all know he’s good, but ability on grass isn’t a guaranteed thing. He’s landed one of the better qualifier spots in the draw against Roberto Carballes Baena. RCB isn’t a simple game, but he’s not at his best on grass. Roberto thrives on outlasting his opponents through consistency and backhand exchanges, and that just isn’t a direct path to success on grass. A win against Ivashka a week ago proves he’s not just a walkover, but Arnaldi should have an edge here on offense. Arnaldi in 4-5.

Loffhagen vs Rune

Rune made headlines this morning after it was reported that he cut his practice session short with back pain. This makes him a slight question mark, but I’m gonna skip over him here because my dude George Loffhagen is serious. He hasn’t been dominating things on the challenger tour, but he played a tremendous match against Van Assche and it’s pretty clear that he has a very high upside if he’s able to get more experience at the tour level. This is a guy I expect to be inside the top 200 by the end of next year. He has good power, great speed, and a good serve. It’s the aggression that’ll make him a slight threat to Rune, but Holger (unless he’s injured) is at another stage in his career right now. The crowd being against him has proven to lend him some fuel as well in the past, so this should be a tight but straightforward affair. Rune in 3-4.

Medvedev vs Fery

Medvedev loses at small events often enough that it’s relatively easy to forget he’s a threat to win any event he enters. He’ll have a hard second round here with Mannarino (if Adrian’s knee holds up), but this first round is one he should be comfortable in. Fery is a promising player, but Medvedev’s defense is just a bit too much for an inexperienced opponent to hit through, even on grass. Medvedev in 3.

Mannarino vs Shevchenko

Pretty simple equation here. If Mannarino is healthy (after a runner-up finish in Mallorca), he’ll win this in straights. Mannarino was heard telling his team he did not want to compete the next day during his quarterfinals match, and he seemed to wince and flex his knee a handful of times. I’m assuming he’s good to go since he took the court for the finals, but cumulative fatigue is going to catch up with him at some point. Shevchenko has a big serve but he played no grass warmup events, so this should be Mannarino in 3.

Giron vs Dellien

Another somewhat straightforward affair. Grass is always odd because the clay-court players have just gotten enough ranking points to get into Wimbledon, but they don’t really have a shot so they don’t play warmup events. Since they don’t play warmup events, they never get sharp enough to have a shot. Dellien is a fine player, but Giron in 3 is pretty much the only expected outcome here.

Fucsovics vs Griekspoor

Surprised to see this one at a pickem, but Fucsovics did have a good run at Stuttgart, beating Fritz and Shapovalov before falling to Tiafoe. Griekspoor has been more impressive to me, playing a thrilling third set loss against Rublev in Halle after beating Hurkacz. Prior to the Rublev loss, Griekspoor was undefeated on grass this season. He’s serving well which is one reason I think he can beat Fucsovics. Marton is a great athlete but he doesn’t score many unreturneds. If he can wear Griekspoor down, I could see him winning, but I don’t think he’ll have an easy time maintaining any early leads. Fucsovics won their previous meeting in Rotterdam in straights, so there may be a stylistic issue I’m not seeing here. Hard to pick against Griekspoor in good form though, especially considering Fucsovics’ big wins were against two guys who are notoriously unreliable. Griekspoor in 5.

Cerundolo vs Borges

Don’t really get the price here. Borges is around +250 which is fair, but after Cerundolo won the title this week in Eastbourne I would expect him to be a larger favorite. Borges lost his last three on grass also so it’s not like he’s a huge contender on paper. Match fatigue can certainly be a factor but Cerundolo seems like he’s at another tier here. Borges had a decent run at the Nottingham challenger so there may be some close patches. Cerundolo in 4.

Ofner vs Lehecka

Tricky spot here also. Jiri Lehecka has sort of moved into the upper echelon of tennis conversations, but his results against lower tier opponents have not been automatic, and his play on grass hasn’t been inspiring. Ofner is generally a clay-court specialist, but he won a few matches at the Ilkley Challenger, and his serve should make him competitive in this one. Lehecka has a win against Giron that’s around the right level to call him the winner here, and a loss against Van Assche that makes this a tricky opponent. Hard to see a clear result here. I’d side with experience and upside. Lehecka in 5.

Raonic vs Novak

Milos Raonic seems to have hinted at retirement, and the quote also made it seem like he was sporting an injury on the way there. That makes it really tricky to expect the usual grasscourt prowess from him. He lost to Thompson in S-Herteogenbosch, and that makes this a losable match as well. Dennis Novak was his usual “where did you come from” self this past week, showing up to the qualifier of a major and winning easily. It’s pretty clear he could still compete on tour, and this is a great opportunity for him. Raonic at his best can’t be broken, but Novak is going to have the steadier level overall. I’m not even sure it’s an upset at this point, but I think Raonic is not quite ready to play yet. Novak in 5.

Mochizuki vs Paul

This is unfortunate. Mochizuki has been really grinding hard on the Challenger level and he was excellent in qualifying, beating Piros in the finals in straight sets. Two weeks ago he may have had a good shot to beat Tommy Paul, but a finals appearance in Eastbourne leaves Paul looking like a guy easing towards his best form. His match with Wolf was a highlight reel, and part of winning is often enjoying your time on court. Tommy looks focused, and I think the extra match fatigue is not as big a downside as the renewed confidence is an upside. Does that sentence makes sense? Sort of. I don’t think Mochizuki gets blanked, but he probably doesn’t have the firepower to win. Paul in 4-5.

Norrie vs Machac

Another match where the qualifier should be competitive but probably can’t win. Machac was clinical in the final round of qualifying, shutting down the Pouille train just as I started to believe in it again. It’s a funny spot because Norrie is an overwhelming favorite, but there aren’t really a lot of reasons why. Is he great on grass? Not really. Is he having a consistent season? Not really. Is he British? Yes, I suppose. It feels like we’re just supposed to expect Cam to win at Wimbledon because he’s the best British player, but he hasn’t really done anything to launch himself into title contention. He should beat Machac, but the qualifier will have ample opportunities and he probably has the better serving game. Norrie in 4.

Eubanks vs Monteiro

Eubanks just won his first title on tour in Mallorca. This is a guy who was getting by on Atlanta Open wildcards for a while, and it’s cool to see his game improve so much. His backhand has gotten way more solid and his commitment to his shots on the forehand wing has improved greatly. Chris is aware of the weight of his shots and he’s focusing less on court position and more on execution. That is exactly what you don’t want a tall player to do as an opponent, and Eubanks has also been using his slice to good effect on grass. The slice does sit up a bit at times, but he has a good enough serve to apply scoreboard pressure so the slice as a defensive option does at least give his opponents a chance to miss. Monteiro just hasn’t been present for the grass-swing, so this should be somewhat straightforward. Maybe Eubanks isn’t the best on defense so there could be some trouble, but Eubanks in 3-4.

O’Connell vs Medjedovic

Somehow Medjedovic has become a grass-court terror. He’s already beaten Berankis, zipped Martinez, and he had a nice win against Mochizuki to start the season. It makes him at least an even prospect against O’Connell. Chris has notched better wins, but has worse losses this season, and I think it depends greatly on which Medjedovic shows up. I was very excited about his possibilities in RG, and he couldn’t find the court at all in his first round against Giron. O’Connell is probably still going to win, but I expect this to be close. O’Connell in 5.

Vesely vs Korda

Vesely in the first round of a major is just not what you want. Korda is back in form, and it’s beautiful to watch, but it feels like Vesely can just serve his way into the mix against anyone. He hasn’t really been active, but I’m not going to let that fool me. Korda should be the better player in the rally, but this is a servers battle and I’d expect some extra inning sets. Korda in 4-5.

Shelton vs Daniel

Good stuff for Taro Daniel to get the lucky loser spot, and this is a halfway hopeful draw for him. Ben Shelton has been good for one set of tennis so far this grass season. He’s able to elevate because his serve and forehand are so good, but he hasn’t shown the ability to maintain a level and that’s a problem against a grinder like Daniel. This should go the distance, because even though Shelton has consistency problems, he has the sort of offensive power you need to hit through Taro. Shelton in 5.

Cressy vs Djere

Cressy’s notebook has a page that says “instill doubt”, and he does that everywhere. In his opponents, in his backers, in himself, just wild times abound when he’s involved. Maxime is one of the most aggressive players on tour, and grass is perfect for him. He won a few matches leading into this event, and this section of the draw is really good for him since Tsitsipas is the big seed. Djere can beat Cressy on the other two surfaces, but on grass I just don’t see his approach being varied enough. Cressy will find breaks of serve, and the 5 set format lends itself to server success at Wimbledon. Cressy in 4.

Peniston vs Murray

Ryan Peniston is the hometown hero, but there are breakfast cereals shaped like Murray in the UK. He’s a big deal, and his recent play has been promising. I don’t think Murray’s lateral movement will allow him to win any more big titles, but in the early rounds he’s a tricky opponent. Here, his backhand should be too solid to really allow Peniston’s left-handed offense to thrive, and Murray is coming off a Challenger title win in Nottingham so he should be ready for this. Murray in 3-4.

Tsitsipas vs Thiem

Tsitsipas’ recent results have been less than stellar, but he was never really the best player on grass so it’s not a real reason to speculate that anything is wrong. He seemed a bit frustrated in his last outting against Hanfmann, swatting a ball out of the stadium at one point well after the volley, but frustration at losing is not the worst sign. The speculation is, of course, that his new relationship with Badosa is affecting his commitment on court. I don’t buy it. Mini-tantrums, stretches of inconsistent play, this is not new. Tsitsipas is a great talent whose game, and perspective, are not finished being ironed out. There are going to be patches of inconsistent play, and players with big swings are going to struggle on grass. This is luckily a simple match, because of late it has almost seemed like Thiem is refusing to win matches. He wins a set, and he’s good for the day. Grass is not either of their preferences, but Tsitsipas has played more and has a better level at this point. Tsitsipas in 3.

Sinner vs Cerundolo J.M.

Juan is scrappy, but there’s no amount of scrap that can erode the surface disadvantage here. Sinner is a really tricky floater in this event, and this is a soft section of the draw. Sinner in 3.

Kecmanovic vs Schwartzman

Randomly, local servebot Diego finds his first good patch of play on grass. I don’t quite understand it, but I enjoy watching it. With Kemanovic losing to Barrere last week, and Schwartzman playing some decent tennis at London (beating McDonald), this is a pretty close spot. I don’t think I like Diego outright, because Kecmanovic eventually should find his serve and have a simpler task physically, but Miomir lost multiple games in a row with the lead last week in Eastbourne, and Schwartzman is a likely suspect to profit from those patches of inconsistency. Kecmanovic in 4-5.

Vukic vs Altmaier

Since Vukic is a big serve and has won a handful of matches recently, it’s easy to pick him here. Altmaier is the hero of RG though, and it’s unlikely he just disappears. I can’t really point to a big edge for either player here, but I think Altmaier has an edge if it goes deep. Vukic in 3 or Altmaier in 5.

Halys vs Evans

Quentin seems to be getting the nod here, coming in at a pickem against a tour veteran who’s supposed to be quite good on grass. It’s the classic battle of server against baseliner, but to me Evans should solve this puzzle. I’ll wait and see like everyone else I guess. Halys has a huge serve and great fluid groundstrokes, but I would expect him to be a little bit stifled as far as movement. Big risk I suppose, but I still like Evans. Evans in 5.

Nishioka vs Galan

Nishioka hasn’t played any grass coming into this. Galan has played but hasn’t played great. Really tough spot since Nishioka is way more consistent but has always struggled on grass. Galan is the early set pick but can he close out, and what weapons does he really possess that will let him score with the lead? Galan in 4-5.

Koepfer vs Otte

Another close one. If it makes my job tougher, at least it will make the tournament better. Koepfer has been stuck just off tour for a while, but he has some decent wins recently. Otte has been struggling mightily, but he came through qualifying by posting some of the best form we’ve seen from him in recent times. Otte’s serve gives him a big edge here if Koepfer is off, so the question is whether Koepfer can keep him out there long enough to wear him down. Otte’s frame is pretty light so he can fall victim to fatigue. Should be close, but I still like Oscar. Otte in 3-4.

Ymer vs Molcan

Mikael Ymer is pretty random on tour, but he played some decent tennis this past week in Eastbourne. He shouldn’t be a huge favorite against Molcan, but Alex just had physical issues during the Bratislava Challenger, and he hasn’t played much grasscourt tennis coming into this. Ymer doesn’t play enough offense to really straight set anyone so this is always going to be a tough spot, but he’s the sharper player in this matchup and he should win. Ymer in 4.

Hanfmann vs Fritz

Hanfmann half amazing. No doubt. Yannick has gone from being a first round threat at 250s to being a title contender on multiple surfaces. It’s really entertaining to see a big guy who’s visibly slower than the pace of the game boom shots that keep it from getting exposed. His groundstrokes are huge and well-chosen, and I think most people will agree that he has a shot here. I thought coming in that this was a good Wimbledon for Fritz to have a deep run. With Tiafoe winning a title, the pressure and spotlight are off for Fritz. He lost to McDonald last week, but it was pretty clear that he was working on his contact and execution out there more than pushing towards the result, and I think he’ll get the job done here. Hanfmann thrives when he’s the bigger hitter and Fritz can just about match him on the forehand wing. Both their backhands are utility shots, and Fritz being fresh should let him win a close server’s battle. Fritz in 4-5.

Coric vs Pella

Pella is starting to look like his old self again, but I’m not sure if he can win this. Coric has dominated their previous matchups, and despite losing to Popyrin in his only tour match of the grass season, he did head to Boodles and get some more repetitions. Pella should win in stretches, but it’s hard to see him outgrinding Coric, and if Borna finds his serve he should win in 4.

Mayot vs Bonzi

Bonzi hasn’t really been a factor recently on tour. A ton of losses and not a lot of buzz have Harold Mayot looking like the pick here. Mayot is a server, and he didn’t drop a single set coming through qualifying. Bonzi’d been losing at a higher level, but his overall slump makes me think Mayot can get this done. Mayot in 3-4.

Moutet vs Gasquet

I really wish Moutet’s rants were transmitted, because despite his childish attitude I have a feeling he’s very funny. He hasn’t done much on grass, but he’s been active and it should give him an even shot against Gasquet. Richard Gasquet is still a problem when he’s on, but maintaining that intensity week after week is really tough when you get a little past your prime, especially on grass which is a sprint no matter the speed of the surface. It’s funny to be picking a guy who just lost to Mannarino in straights while smashing racquets and crying at the sky, especially when Gasquet beat Eubanks (title winner) and Tsitsipas (local handsome guy) recently, but I think Moutet’s physicality get him through in the end. Feels like RBA will bail me out of a bad pick here since he plays the winner. Moutet in 5.

Safiullin vs Bautista-Agut

Roman Safiullin has been decent this month, so this is a tough draw. RBA isn’t exactly the same guy, but his ability on grass and his consistent baselining are enough to even out any advantage that Safiullin has on serve. Should be a close but inevitable match. RBA in 4-5.

Shapovalov vs Albot

Albot coming through qualifying is into a strange spot in the draw. You know going in that Shapo is there for the taking, but how to get him to implode? He hasn’t been terribly active on tour, and he hasn’t been showing many signs of changing his game to fix his poor results. Albot can win, but my fear is that he will play Shapovalov into form before he does so. It’s just not the overwhelming offense or lockdown defense that tends to make Shapovalov’s errors and double faults a big issue, and grass is a good surface to take extra risks which makes Denis’ impatience not as huge of a problem as usual. Shapo in 4.

Harris vs Barrere

It’s interesting to see Lloyd Harris winning again. He seems to really be taking things slow, and his interest in putting the ball in the court is something you don’t see often on tour. It’s pretty clear he’s taking something off his forehand, and while I think that is prudent (get wins and ease into your old form) it might prove an issue against Barrere. Gregoire is hitting his forehand really well, and his backhand is crisp as well. On defense, it feels like he’s just at his limit against the better players on tour, but when he has control he’s able to compete with all but the top 20 guys it seems. Harris should be competitive here, but he’s just getting back to form and Barrere is playing his best tennis. Barrere in 4-5.

Broady vs Lestienne

Trickshot magic time. Lestienne can come up with the most ridiculous shots at any moment, and Broady takes such a “I’m also Cam Norrie” approach that he’ll have ample opportunity to come up with them. Broady is the clear favorite, but he plays such conservative and measured tennis that I think Lestienne will have his chances. Broady in 4.

Lokoki vs Ruud

Ruud making a post about his favorite grass-court prep being golf is pretty funny, and it’s nice to see the king of clay’s lighter side come out more. As far as winning matches in this event though, it’s tricky. Ruud is a good bit more solid than Lokoli, but no prep is no prep. Lokoli reminds me of a cross between Tsonga’s shot selection with Lehecka’s swings, and I think there’s a good chance he wins a set or two in this one. It’s just tough to see him having a 5 setter with Mmoh (final round of qualifying) and then beating a top 5 player. This should be closer than the odds indicate, and I’d never be backing Ruud to win matches here given his lack of prep. Ruud in 4-5.

Rublev vs Purcell

Purcell is a good dude for losing to Lopez last week, but his run of being a good dude is likely to continue here. Rublev in 3.

Van Assche vs Karatsev

This is probably the toughest match to call of the first round. Van Assche can get into some really consistent patches of play, but his results haven’t been at Karatsev’s level. Karatsev has shown bright points, but not overall in the matches. It’s tricky to gauge if Karatsev’s bright points will beat LVA’s consistency. I could really see Van Assche outworking Karatsev here, even on the ultra-fast surface. Karatsev seems much more comfortable in serving battles, or against guys with no offense. Luca is somewhere in between. Karatsev in 5.

Baez vs Barrios Vera

Considering that Barrios Vera qualified, I’d almost rate him about Baez at this point. Sebastian had a good second set battle against Tommy Paul, but there’s one win from Barrios that I consider stronger than that. Barrios took out Hijikata, who I would expect to beat Baez at this stage. This is really tricky because Baez leads their h2h 4-0, but all those matches were on clay and I think Barrios will be competitive here. Barrios in 5.

Goffin vs Kyrgios

Is Nick actually going to play? It feels like Goffin will win this, because for once I actually believe Kyrgios has not been playing. Huge serve, but Goffin’s pretty quick and he’s been playing a lot of tennis. I think Goffin can score on Kyrgios and I think he can keep the ball in enough frustrating locations that Nick will struggle. Kyrgios probably knows this is a good spot in the draw, but his traditional mindset has been to feign disinterest unless he knows he’s going to win. Goffin in 3-4.

Bublik vs McDonald

Return of the mack! McDonald played some good tennis this week, and almost beat title winner Cerundolo (up a set and two breaks before boarding the struggle bus). It’s enough to give him an even shot against Bublik, but for some reason I think Bublik wins. The courts are slower here, which gives Bublik more time on defense against McDonald’s inside out forehand. The slower conditions also remove some of the pop from McDonald’s serve. Bublik will still have his powerful delivery even if they play on sand, especially since the best thing about his serve is the location, not the pace. I don’t know if McDonald will go down lightly, and Bublik is not the most stable competitor, so I’m expecting this to be worth the price of admission. Bublik in 5.

Wolf vs Couacaud

It almost feels like Enzo Couacaud snuck into this spot. He didn’t make a lot of noise in the qualifier, but he stopped Kovacevic’s solid run in the finals and he has a winnable match here. The hallmark of his game is consistency and foot-speed, and that should help him a little since JJ Wolf is likely to go big on offense when he gets the chance. It’s a great return to the bigtime for Enzo, but Wolf has been operating at this level with decent success recently. I thought he had a good chance against Tommy Paul, and wins against Shelton and Little Red Riding Hood are pretty decent accomplishments. There shouldn’t be a lot to separate these two but Wolf seems to have a slightly bigger game. Wolf in 4-5.

Marterer vs Gojo

Good serving battle here, but Marterer was at his best in qualifying and his game from the baseline is a bit more consistent than Gojo. Marterer in 4.

Mmoh vs Auger-Aliassime

Pretty clear FAA in 4 here, but do you know if Felix is going to show up? I’m not sure there’s a real way to know when he’s going to lose, but at this point he’s in a legit slump. Michael Mmoh doesn’t really play the type of offense to get you out of there, but this could easily turn into one of those spots where FAA has to turn it up and win 3 sets in a row. I guess part of the job is predicting inconsistent players, but FAA has really established himself as a guy that you cannot predict in the first round. FAA in 4.

Musetti vs Varillas

Musetti has been a nice surprise on grass, and it should continue here. Great for Varillas to be getting main draw entries, but Musetti is a threat for a deep run here and Varillas is out of his comfort zone. Musetti in 3.

Isner vs Munar

This is the sort of spot where you’d expect Isner to dominate, but Munar has fared well in the past against servers. Neither have played any grass, so Isner in 3-4 is the expected result.

Choinski vs Lajovic

I was prepped to pick Choinski here because he’s been fairly active, but Lajovic went to Boodles and played a few good matches. I think that makes this fairly even, because despite Choinski’s upside he hasn’t really beaten many tour-level players. Lajovic in 4-5.

Ramos vs Hurkacz

Hooray for easy spots! Expect Hurkacz to somehow make this into a marathon and scare everyone who puts him in their parlays. ARV is a legend, but on grass he just can’t get it going, and Hurkacz is a problem in any deciding set even if you get there. Hurkacz in 3-4.

Etcheverry vs Zapata Miralles

I guess I like Etcheverry here because he has a bigger serve, but Zapata Miralles has a bit more experience. Hard to really see a favorite here, but BZM’s groundstrokes looked a bit awkward in his last match. Etcheverry in 4.

Ruusuvuori vs Wawrinka

Ruusuvuori beat Sinner at S-Hertegonbosch, but hasn’t won a match since then. I rate that higher than Wawrinka, who hasn’t played at all. Stan has enough experience to show up and play fine, but Ruusuruori should be winning this. Ruusuvuori in 5.

Thompson vs Nakashima

It doesn’t matter how many matches Thompson wins, I still like Nakashima in this matchup. Brandon’s game is built to be slightly more aggressive than other defensive baseliners, and I think the overall pressure will pay dividends. Thompson’s backhand isn’t as good as Nakashima’s, and his serve is stronger but not by a great deal. Nakashima in 5.

Cachin vs Djokovic

Title defense starting out on the wrong side of the draw for Djokovic, but he looked really good in his exhibition matches. The question of whether anyone can elevate to his level is something we probably won’t know the answer to until the second week, as Musetti/Hurkacz are likely to be his big early tests and neither of them should prove a huge problem for him. Musetti is playing great but I don’t think he can defend against Djokovic, and Hurkacz is just not at his best this season. Cachin is a lovely fellow, and it may be close early since Novak likes to ease into things. Djokovic in 3.