2023 Wimbledon Men's Finals 🐢

Alcaraz vs Djokovic

The big 3 have given the tour a chance to regroup, and what has emerged is one of the most exciting rivalries to appear on tour in a long time. Carlos Alcaraz is one of the best phenoms to enter tennis in the last ten years, and his results have exceeded expectations. He’s already getting into the discussion to beat Djokovic for major titles, and this conversation is somewhat inevitable since he’s beating everyone else on tour and heading into those matches as a favorite as well. Basically, Djokovic is the only thing standing between Alcaraz and big giant trophies, but in the words of Novak, “it ain’t happening”.

Alcaraz has marched through this draw in impressive fashion. He looked a little rough against Jarry, but solved the servebot problem against Berrettini. He was expected to have a close contest with Rune from the baseline, but he was one shot better at the end of every rally, and he seemed fairly reserved in his swing which is a great sign. We all think Djokovic is the smoothest player out there, but I think part of that is that when you’re extremely skillful, you just don’t have to swing as hard to achieve the same results. Accuracy and length over power. It’s one thing that Nalbandian was stressing in his coaching sessions with Kecmanovic, and it’s great to see Alcaraz consciously making that shift. The ability to infuse power doesn’t go away, and it becomes more effective if your opponent has to deal with different speeds of shots coming at him. Alcaraz’s final challenge here was Medvedev, and he got through in straight sets which I think most people didn’t expect.

I thought Medvedev’s serving would get him a look at a set the same way Hurkacz’s did against Djokovic, but Alcaraz was too safe in the rallies. Medvedev has a slight issue there if he wants to challenge for titles. Alcaraz just hits the ball bigger almost all the time, and that’s not something court conditions are going to solve for Daniil. If he wants to beat Alcaraz, he needs to hit bigger and that likely only happens via strength training, which seems like it could be tricky given Medvedev’s tall and lanky frame. So, thus far, Alcaraz has been dominant, but every player he faced has had a slight hole in their game. Berrettini’s backhand is good, but a target for a top player. Medvedev is an octopus and he’s a brilliant tactician, but his shots don’t carry through the court enough to get past Alcaraz or rush him into errors. Rune is solid, but he plays in somewhat predictable coached patterns and he’s a bit physically weaker than Alcaraz at this stage in their career, so playing in the second week of a major is tough. Step one in analyzing this final I think is to remove all these considerations; Djokovic doesn’t have any of these issues.

Novak is undefeated on Centre Court over the last ten years, but it’s more than the record. Almost all his wins look casual. I guarantee you the ratings for his matches take a huge dip in the second and third sets, because it just becomes clear after about an hour of play that his opponents don’t really have a chance. Halfway through the second set against Sinner, I really asked if Djokovic had made an unforced error. Of course he had (3 in the first and 9 in the second), but it’s remarkable how automatic he is about putting the ball in the court. Sinner looks like the bigger hitter against almost everyone on tour, but against Djokovic it just seemed like his technique was bound to break down eventually. He does have a pretty fluid takeback, but this can sometimes be undone when your opponent is more technically sound. It’s a tricky choice in tennis. Adopt a big technically perfect swing and risk being rushed and unable to execute it, or go with a more Western grip shot which requires a lot of fluidity and feel, and struggle with consistency when fatigue sets in.

Another big issue (but one that Alcaraz hopefully does not experience here) is fatigue. Djokovic is playing so solid that his opponents start to look out of breath at the end of long rallies. If you feel even slightly out of breath, the tendency to try to go big down the line at the end of a point goes way up, and the odds of making this shot go way down. We saw Hurkacz miss a bunch of forehands, we saw Rublev’s backhand wear down, and we saw Sinner’s forehand find the tape in what looked like neutral rallies from above. At court level, obviously we’d see the incredible pace and weight of shot that Djokovic is bringing, but the point is that he’s scoring points off of safe shots, and he does not seem to have any sense of urgency about ending the rallies so it leads to his opponents almost feeling trapped.

A nice hindrance call in the last match was quickly followed by a time violation, so we got a good look at how Djokovic handles being rattled by outside influences, but he handled it fairly well. He did scream “what are you doing” at the umpire, which I thought was natural but a bit silly. The call was fine. Both calls were. There are times when the umpire should perhaps not interject himself into the match. Serving down a break or set point late in a match, or in a tiebreaker, you can sort of let the shot clock violation go. It’s still an infraction, but it would be a huge distraction for both players to call this. These calls came early in the second set though, and I think it’s good for the refs to establish early that they are enforcing the rules, and there is no alotment for a learning curve. Call Nadal for his first time violation, and you won’t see him shaking his head when he gets called for one late in a set.

As for the audible hindrance call, Djokovic hit an excellent backhand down the line, and then let loose a big “aaannnnnhhhhhhh” as Sinner was hitting the ball. Sometimes these players let loose a larger grunt than usual when they hit a winner or think they have at the end of a long point. Sometimes these players are watching the crowd watch them, and playing up the exertion becomes a thing as they make spectacular gets. Sometimes the power is just difficult to generate from an awkward pose or position, and the noise just escapes you the same as it would if you got punched in the stomach. There’s no real way to know what Djokovic was thinking or what happened, but the noise was late, and super loud, and not his usual mode. If players grunt on every shot, chances are the tour is already sick of them, but the umpire isn’t going to call a hindrance (you’re welcome Azarenka). Djokovic was embarrassed, but it wasn’t a bad call. I thought the umpire did a fine job in that match, and it’s tedious seeing players declare innocence over any infraction they are called out for.

Back to tennis, the big question here in determining whether Alcaraz has a shot is whether he can win from neutral at the baseline. I certainly think so, but none of his previous matches are against the caliber of player that Djokovic is. Alcaraz has thrived off of being the bigger hitter on court, and I’m not sure he’ll gain many errors or opportunities from neutral against Djokovic. Djokovic will be a bit better in the backhand exchanges. Alcaraz has shown good ability to take some second serve backhand returns down the line for winners from the ad side, but during the rallies he’s been a little bit off at times with this shot on his +1 post-serve. The dropshots are the best thing about Carlos’ game after his forehand, but Djokovic is one of the best movers on grass so this option may be somewhat limited. It isn’t like Alcaraz is Gaston and just needs to hit 50 dropshots a game, and his shot selection is well-coached and fairly balanced, but the court tends to feel small against Djokovic at times and it feels like Alcaraz has won a lot of his recent net exchanges due to athleticism and his opponents being slightly inefficient with their shots.

The forehand almost favors Alcaraz. I think there will be a lot of neutral rallies, but Alcaraz adopting the Nadal windmill follow-thru means he can infuse pace without risking wild changes in depth. When he has time, he’s able to hit past anyone and I’ll include Djokovic in this. The forehand is the thing honestly that makes Alcaraz beating Djokovic a “when” for me rather than an “if”. These are not the conditions though, and this win here would be a pretty huge leap for Alcaraz.

This does remind me a little of Wimbledon 2008, where Nadal was somewhat written off as inexperienced on grass. Athleticism and skill thrive on grass, and Alcaraz is really a complete player and a tremendous athlete. He’s the right candidate for the job, but I still think Djokovic has a big edge because of his serve. Djokovic is (for me, at least) the best server on tour. His percentages weren’t great against Sinner, but having that spot serve that he can dial up at a moment’s notice is a huge factor on grass. He’s one of the better T servers on tour, and since serve and volleying is huge on grass this is a tactic that lets him shorten points and take risks on big points without disaster. I think Alcaraz is doing well from the duece side with his serve out wide, but Djokovic returns very well with his overhand forehand so it may be tough to balance this since Carlos’ T serve from the deuce side bends a bit towards the opponent just like Rublev’s.

Since Djokovic is practically a servebot, one of the big keys I think for Alcaraz is to keep his first serve percentage high for as long as he can. Djokovic tends to get a read on your delivery by the end of the first set, and giving him second serves lets him really take some big cuts at the ball. He’s likely to put first serves back in play, but he’ll generally go a bit more conservative with that shot selection, mostly looking to put a ball in play that gives him time to recover to center. Alcaraz served 62% against Rune, 63% against Berrettini, and 71% Medvedev. The Berrettini and Medvedev match were played under a closed roof and the weather forecast for tomorrow looks sunny and clear so this is likely to be outdoors. Besides getting returns you can work with, hitting a high percentage may also make Djokovic’s service games more difficult if they become the noticeably longer of the two. Djokovic was only around 58% in his last match against Sinner and really won from the baseline via Sinner errors, errors that I don’t think Alcaraz will make.

Overall, this is the finals we want, and there are no downsides. If Alcaraz wins, the US Open becomes a wild event and the conversation about how many majors Carlos can win opens up again. He gets to put the French Open physical letdown behind him, and him and Djokovic becomes a solid rivalry for at least a few years. If Djokovic wins, the US Open becomes a huge sweat for him. Having narrowly missing the calendar year Grand Slam the last time, he’ll be laser focused on this and there are a number of players who peak at this event so the draw will be exciting. For me, Djokovic has displayed a higher level of tennis here, and I don’t think he’s fully exerted or reached his best level yet. Alcaraz will bring that out, but I think Djokovic will be a little more efficient about punishing Alcaraz’s errors than his previous opponents were, and Novak will be able to serve his way to the title if he gets a lead. Expecting an absolute classic here. Djokovic in 4.