2023 Wimbledon 3rd Round Saturday Writeup 🐢

ATP Singles

Alcaraz vs Jarry

Part of the Alcaraz Djokovic final is starting to look less likely after the last round. Arthur Muller is a good player, but Alcaraz wasn’t able to shut down his serve the way you might expect. Carlos was still able to win in straights, and there are higher levels left in the tank, but it opens the window for a lot of players in this section of the draw. The winner of the Berrettini Zverev match will have a decent chance against him, and Jarry has a puncher’s chance to get this into a 4th. Nicolas Jarry is into the 3rd round after a pretty comfortable 4 set win against Kubler. I don’t think he can hit through Alcaraz from neutral terms, and that will likely be his downfall here, but I do think he’ll be able to hold serve fairly often.

Alcaraz’s first choice against big serves has been to adopt the deep return position, and I don’t think this will yield frequent breaks against a player as comfortable taking the ball down the line with both wings as Jarry. At some point, Alcaraz will have to start defending the baseline, and it will result in some tough patches (like when Thiem lost everything on hardcourt for a season or two) but it will eventually yield easier wins (like when Thiem won Indian Wells and the US Open). I think Jarry wins at least a set here, but Alcaraz is yet to lose this grass swing and I think his edge in rallies is too big to lose in the ⅗ format. Alcaraz in 4.

Zverev vs Berrettini

This is a wait and see spot for me. Berrettini beating De Minaur in straight sets has just completely changed the conversation in this tournament. He’s yet to be broken in the tournament, and there isn’t a lot of difference between his play here and his play in the past when he made deep runs at Wimbledon. This match is a huge step up for Berrettini, and it’s against a player that he’s 1-4 against. Those matches were on clay and hardcourt, but the attributes that make Zverev a tough match for him are pretty clear. Zverev’s backhand is one of the most stable on tour, and his reach makes him very good at returning serve. He’s guilty of playing a bit too passive in backhand exchanges, but this is a decent strategy against Matteo because he has a big liability on that side. His slice is pretty solid, but the big matches he’s lost on tour have all been to players isolating that wing and earning errors. The pressure tends to make him decelerate and aim for bigger targets, and the two hander is an option that tends to really fade in quality as matches progress. Bigger targets are fine, but if you’re making errors anyway you might as well just go for a bit more.

Despite a rough h2h, Berrettini still has a chance here. Zverev dropped a set to Watanuki and his opener against Brouwer was fairly close. Basically, their displayed levels so far will see Berrettini win, but I think it will be very close and we’ll see Zverev’s ability to return serve become a factor. It’s great to have Berrettini back on tour, but it’s making it extremely difficult to pick a winner here. I love watching Zverev lose, but he’s been way more disciplined and his forehand seems better since his return from injury. Berrettini is the more organized server, and I think he can win this if he gets an early lead. Berrettini in 4.

Tiafoe vs Dimitrov

Another match that I’ll likely delete and rewrite the final pick for. Tiafoe has had the much tougher draw here, outdueling a very sharp Stricker and a motivated Wu in straight sets. I would expect Stricker to win a set against Dimitrov, but I can only go off the previous opponents. Dimitrov beat Ivashka and Shimabukuro fairly easily, and he’s in pretty good form this grass season. His one loss was a 6-4, 6-4 disaster against Alcaraz that looks close but was pretty hard to watch. Point blank, Dimitrov rolls people and then loses the plot the moment he plays a top tier player. Does he consider Tiafoe a big name? If so, the nerves will erode his quality and his shot selection. If not, this is an even contest.

These are two of the most gifted athletes and tour, but Tiafoe puts in more physical training and is still improving. Dimitrov has a huge serve, but I think Tiafoe’s has a bit more firepower over the course of a 5 set match. If Tiafoe can win the early sets, I don’t think Dimitrov mounts a comeback. The flipside isn’t true though; Tiafoe has shown great ability to hang in there and nab late set wins. Tiafoe’s forehand is a bit sharper than Dimitrov, but his backhand slice is a lot worse and he’s a bit less disciplined with his shot selection. I’m expecting this to go Tiafoe’s way, but I think it will take a long time to get there. They’re both playing great, and neither really have the defensive prowess to shut down their opponent. Tiafoe in 5.

Davidovich Fokina vs Rune

Absent a line, I might think ADF was going to win this match. He’s been able to overwhelm two powerful offenses so far with his consistent and aggressive baseline play. His opponent Rune is always in the mix to make a deep run, but he hasn’t been terribly dominant thus far. Rune has a huge serve, and great technical swings, but clay and hardcourt seem to suit his game a lot more. Carballes Baena couldn’t win a set, but he was within striking distance in all 3 (3,4,6) and if Holger doesn’t find a next gear, he’ll be making an early exit.

Books have opened this at -300 for Rune, which I think is a bit high. Rune -200 feels fair, because Fokina doesn’t really have a weakness that Rune can expose. Since it’s grass and Rune has a bigger serve, he’s a deserved favorite, but I think he’ll lose in some sections of this match. Am I allowed to just lean into the upset? It’s hard to write off these big names because they’ve displayed extremely high levels against each other. Rune’s best tennis beats ADF, so this feels similar to Alcaraz Jarry in the sense that the previous round makes me think Rune is there for the taking. This much indecision on my part generally means that the tournament is getting really good, and looking at these matchups we’re really going to see a lot of good tennis. I do think ADF is due for a big win, and he has a lot of experience in big matches at majors. ADF in 5.

Medvedev vs Fucsovics

Mannarino got the best of Medvedev in S-Hertogenbosch, but it was all Medvedev in Wimbledon. Signs of Mannarino’s exit were on the wall. He didn’t indicate an injury, but said that he didn’t enjoy grass, and that it made his knee hurt. That gives Medvedev the endurance advantage, and he had the extra motivation of just losing to Adrian. Overall, it was a classic Medvedev performance. He just defended until Mannarino missed, even if that took a long time to happen. Good evidence of that is that down a set point, Mannarino played a 42 shot rally where he supplied all of the offense. In the end, he made the error though, and despite a 3rd set tiebreaker it just seemed as if Mannarino wasn’t fully committed to going deep in this event.

Medvedev will get another semi-specialist in this round. Marton Fucsovics is one of the only Marton’s in the tournament, and despite a rough season he’s found some great play here on grass. He’s already beaten Griekspoor and Giron, and I give him a decent chance against Medvedev. I think his lack of a serve will leave him in the same puzzle as Mannarino: how do you escape a rally when your opponent isn’t hitting with much pace but can put everything back. Since Medvedev has a huge serve, he’s the guy who’ll have more easy holds, but I think Fucsovics will be competitive throughout most of this as long as the scoreline is relatively close. I’m not really sold on his grass-court prowess, but he’s a tier above Fucsovics in every department. Medvedev in 4.

Lehecka vs Paul

I would not have predicted Jiri Lehecka to make this run, but now that he has it feels like it will continue. He beat Cerundolo in straight-sets, and that’s a great win even if Cerundolo seemed to be a bit out of sorts. He has another vaguely out of form player here, and I think endurance will come into play here. Tommy Paul is coming off a finals run in Eastbourne, and he had some early struggles against Mochizuki. This has been a pretty sweet draw for him, against a qualifier in his first major and a rusty Raonic. Lehecka opened at a pickem against Cerundolo, and beat him in straights. He’s opened again at a pickem against Tommy Paul, and I don’t know what to think. I think Lehecka has a huge upside. He can generate short angles with his forehand, he moves well, and he can locate his serve very accurately at times. He reminds me of a cross between Berdych and Djokovic, but obviously he’s nowhere near the level they got to in their prime.

So can he beat Paul? Tommy has a bigger serve, but is a bit more error prone. His physical condition isn’t 100%, but he has a better backhand than Lehecka and more ways to score. This feels like a spot where Lehecka is profiting from the cumulative fatigue of Paul playing so many matches in a row, but it’s hard to argue with his results thus far. Lehecka in 4-5.

Eubanks vs O’Connell

I thought Eubanks would be competitive but he really dismissed Cam Norrie. It was the best tennis he’s played on tour from the baseline, and this is after a title run in Mallorca so his ceiling is really undetermined at this point. Enter Chris O’Connell, who I am quite sure I will never figure out. Him opening at a pickem against Vesely after Jiri played great against Korda rang alarm bells, but I didn’t listen to them. O’Connell seems to be a solid returner, and his consistency coupled with Vesely’s fatigue (which I didn’t expect after only one match) made it a quick L for Vesely. O’Connell beat Eubanks in their only encounter, but this is a whole different Chris Eubanks. His one-hander is starting to really cook (O’Connell has one too but it’s way more of a utility), and his serve is probably in the top 5 deliveries left in the tournament (Djokovic, Berrettini, Hurkacz, Bublik, Eubanks). He’s a favorite here, but I am scared of O’Connell at this point and Eubanks can struggle with consistency at times. Expecting a close match that I hope Eubanks wins, but Norrie is probably not as tough an opponent as O’Connell right now. Leaning into another strange O’Connell win. O’Connell in 5.

Djere vs Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas was a pickem with Murray but is -500 vs Djere? I don’t really agree. Murray had the match locked up, but the curfew bit him in the butt. He returned today in poor spirits, and yelled at various objects and people every time he missed a shot or made a poor choice. In return, they cheered for him and supported him. Murray is a great competitor, but he is exhaustingly soft. Tsitsipas made some good adjustments on his backhand (going to a slice and using his legs instead of his accuracy), and once he stopped missing it was hard for Murray to regroup. Andy seemed a bit less aggressive today, and expecting errors to come is a fine plan but it just didn’t work out in the end.

Djere was a bit too solid for Shelton, and I had a feeling that he would be after seeing Taro Daniel get to a 5th. Here Tsitsipas will again dominate any time he gets a forehand. His forehand cross is just absurdly good, and his serve is good enough to make him competitive even though grass isn’t his best surface. The tricky part is that grass isn’t helping him, but he’s logging so much court time that he’s starting to find a decent groove. This is a match I think Djere can win in round 1, but now he likely comes up a tiny bit short, as he generally does against the top tier. Tsitsipas isn’t going to hit himself out of the tournament at this point, and 5 setters aren’t going to impact him physically because he really is one of the best athletes on tour. Tsitsipas in 4-5.

WTA Singles

Jabeur vs Andreescu

Ons made super quick work of Bai, and I won’t make the Backstreet Boys joke because I am a turtle and turtles are classy. On the other side of this bracket, Andreescu and Kalinina played a marathon match, which ended somewhat anti-climactically as Andreecu jumped out to a quick lead in the tiebreaker. Kalinina had some chances to get back, but Andreescu read a few of her shots well including a dropshot at I think 4-2, and it just spiraled from there. Andreescu has now played 6 sets and been on court for 5 hours, and Jabeur has sprinted through hers in just 2 hours total. I think it will be a big difference here, as Andreescu will have to dig deep in a third (if she can get there) here against an opponent who will likely still be fresh. Jabeur’s a bit more steady than Andreescu in general, and being the runner up at an event often leads to a solid run the next year since the pressure is off but the hunger is there. I think Andreescu’s defending is admirable but Jabeur has the skill to end rallies with control. Jabeur in 2.

Stevanovic vs Kvitova

Stevanovic is changing her career trajectory with this tournament alone. This is huge prize money (~165k for losing here if she loses) and a ton of points. How many points? 1 ton. Her slice-heavy approach worked eventually against Korpatsch, who also had a solid run here and is starting to find her form in the past month or so. I think it’ll give problems to Kvitova as well, but Petra is playing some of her best tennis ever and I don’t know if Stevanovic can return serve well enough to turn this into a close match. I’d be scared to fade a player with such a unique style in any specific way (the spreads and totals here are likely shifted wayyyy in Kvitova’s direction to price people out), but this should be Kvitova in 2.

Cirstea vs Haddad Maia

They should just start this in the third set. 9 of Cirstea’s last 10 matches went to a third set. 7 of Haddad Maia’s did as well. Their last meeting was in Dubai this year, with Cirstea winning in 3. I think Cirstea is a bit better here, since her last round wins were against Maria and Ostapenko. That’s a lot better than Putintseva and Cristian, but I don’t expect her to roll. Sorana’s offense makes her competitive against anyone, but she struggles to maintain that level throughout an entire match. Haddad pretty much always digs in once she starts losing and keeps the ball in play, so what I’m almost expecting here is for the player who loses the second set to lose the match. This is too close to call, but I think the conditions suit Cirstea in 3.

Boulter vs Rybakina

Great comeback win for Boulter, and she’ll get no reward here. Rybakina beat a mummified Cornet in round two, after a fall led the trainers to get out the thickest tape known to man and apply it liberally to Cornet’s right leg. She really is a tough competitor, even if it sometimes feels like it’s a bit theatrical. Sitting at home it’s easy to dismiss the injuries, but tennis is extremely grinding and having to compete so many weeks of the year means you’re just running on fumes a lot of the time. That’s when injuries happen, because your ego won’t just let you lose or give up on the play. Props to Cornet, and a quick recovery. Rybakina is inching towards solid form, and Boulter is probably only a threat here for one of the three sets. She can elevate her game and has turned in some great performances against the likes of Osaka and other big names in the past, but she hasn’t gotten across the finish line. The power differential on serve is big here. Rybakina in 2.

Kostyuk vs Keys

Badosa had to retire against Kostyuk, so her great run continues. Wishing a quick recovery to Badosa, who seems to be dating Stefanos Tsitsipas (stay tuned for more hot news scoops). Keys had a close first set against Golubic, but the second set was more comfortable. I think she beats Kostyuk, but Marta hits the ball really hard and has an aggressive shot selection, and that could give Keys some problem. Madison has a huge swing and needs time to execute, so Kostyuk should look to get up court and play slices and dropshots when she can to take Keys out of her comfort zone. That comfort zone has her not dropping a set yet this grass season though, so she should win this. I do think Kostyuk can get close in a set, so this is Keys in 2-3.

Potapova vs Andreeva

Can anyone stop Andreeva? Krejcikova was forced to retire with an injury but it felt like Andreeva was able to win even without it. She really just has all the tools and seems like the more consistent player in every match she plays. Against Potapova, we get our first look at how she handles a huge offense. Potapova hits the ball extremely solid, and stays aggressive even in the rough patches. She’s through after a hard-fought win against Juvan. I almost want Andreeva to win here because if she can win this, she has half a shot against Keys. I worry though that Korpatsch’s ability to get to a third indicates that a strong and measured offense is the only thing that Andreeva isn’t able to outlast yet. Should be an absurdly close match. Leaning towards Potapova in 3.

Galfi vs Alexandrova

I took the under in the Alexandrova match <3. She proceeded to make 90 unforced errors and play 3 tiebreakers against Brengle. It’s almost impressive to be in such a rush to win a match that you end up playing the maximum amount of tennis. Just Alexandrova things. Up next is a match she will 400% lose if she plays the same as she did last round, but I don’t think she will. Galfi managed to squeak past a tiebreaker in the second set, and Niemeier wasn’t able to do much in the third. Galfi’s power and consistency should give Alexandrova some trouble, but they seem like very similar minds out there and Alexandrova’s backhand is a lot more versatile. I think this could be close, but Alexandrova can’t possibly play as poorly as she did last round, can she? Alexandrova in 3.

Blinkova vs Sabalenka

Another “if Sabalenka has lapses” situation. Gracheva played excellent in the early-goings, but Sabalenka’s ballstriking is just at another level. Once she stops missing, once your offense tapers off, it’s just two different weight-classes. I don’t think Blinkova has a great way to score easy points here, but you can be sure she will compete anyway. Their previous matches went to deciding sets, and Sabalenka had to serve to stay in the match against Gracheva late in the second, but her serving elevated and I usually expect people to carry over that level into their next match once they find it. Sabalenka in 1 close and 1 lopsided set.