2023 US Open Women's Semifinals

WTA Singles

Gauff vs Muchova

In a draw that has left many seeded players behind, we are fortunate to get two incredibly skilled baseliners here. Both players have exceptional defense, but neither is hesitant to go big when it’s their moment. Absent Swiatek, this is probably the best semifinal we could get, and both of these players are hungry for their first Grand Slam win so this should be excellent.

This matchup is a rematch of the Cincinnati finals a few weeks ago, which was a straight set win for Gauff. The situation here is slightly different, but Gauff is a favorite here after that performance. Gauff is living up to the hype lately, and despite taking the long road to beat the good baseliners she’s played (Siegemund, Mertens, Wozniacki), Gauff has arrived here completely fresh after a quick win against Jelena Ostapenko.

At 0-0, Ostapenko looked at her box and shook her head no. I’ve seen this behavior a lot, and I understand it. The players feel pressure, and they know in a sense that they’re not going to win and it hurts more to have loved ones present. The pressure is all in their head though. There’s no one in Ostapenko’s box who wants to see her lose, but there’s no one there whose relationship with and feelings toward her are going to change if she does. We have our favorite players, but we remember that they’re human. The monologue of letting them down easy and the perceived pressure they were putting on her continued, and Ostapenko let the match get away from her pretty quickly.

It was hard to watch the narrative moping, but I also think it’s on Ostapenko’s team to have a good enough relationship to her to tell her it’s ok to fail (even during the match) and to shout encouragement and messages that could snap her out of the funk and let her know that although her belief was gone, the match wasn’t over yet. To her credit, she kept firing away, but the groove that she had gotten into in previous rounds wasn’t there, and wasn’t necessarily going to win anyway. Point blank, Gauff is faster than Swiatek, and doesn’t hug the baseline as much. Ostapenko’s power is impressive, but Gauff isn’t looking to redirect as much as Iga, so it became a match where Ostapenko’s impatience hurt her a bit.

Muchova had a similar offensive test to get past, and did so equally quick. Cirstea looked a bit outclassed in the first set, but she settled in the second and managed to go up a break early. Muchova was just more consistent on the day though, and Cirstea seemed to have trouble recreating the level she had in earlier rounds. Sometimes draws matter. Muchova has played Wang and Townsend while Cirstea was battling Rybakina and Bencic. Karolina may have just been the better player, but she looked like she had more spring in her step in this one.

In Cincinnati, I saw a few things that Muchova’s team will want to iron out. Her dropshots weren’t very useful at all. She left a lot of them high, but mostly Gauff was just all over them. Gauff is quick, so overuse of the dropshot isn’t ideal. Muchova’s slices also landed short a lot. It was extremely bright during this match (unsure if the court conditions were as bad, but on camera you could barely see the ball) and sometimes this can make it tough to execute skill shots. In any event, she should look to use her two-hander as often as she can in this. Gauff has an edge on this shot, but she moves to short balls very well and honestly she missed a lot of easy put-aways in that finals that she probably won’t here with a few more weeks of hardcourt play and a slower surface. I did like Karolina’s move to net. Gauff is really solid when she has time, but presenting a target while she’s on the move can often make her change her shot.

It sounds strange to say the Cincinnati finals was a pressure environment for Muchova but not Gauff, but it felt like Muchova was frozen and didn’t execute. Having an extra match of recent practice can help, and having a bunch of experience playing big matches at the majors does also. Gauff is playing great, but the finish line is where expectations and pressure can often mount. Luckily, she’s pretty mature, but if this goes sideways the crowd might become a bit of a hindrance. I’m not saying I expect Gauff to be tense, but it is something to consider. Muchova has no expectations here, and I didn’t really think she played her best in Cincinnati so I’m expecting a closer match.

Big tennis keys here are just the weight of shot. Gauff hits a heavier backhand, but Muchova might be a little stronger and more reliable on offense with her forehand. In Cincinnati (I sound like a parrot) Muchova and Gauff both missed a lot of shots they’d normally make, so I also expect a higher quality match here. Serve-wise, Gauff has the bigger delivery but Muchova moves hers around more. What it looked like, is that the match could go either way, but Muchova felt more pressure to create, whereas Gauff was fine playing long rallies and waiting for errors. As well as Muchova played against Cirstea, that might cost her.

It’s problematic here because I like Sabalenka for the title at this point, so if I predict Muchova winning here I’m just doubting Gauff twice. Generally, once she gets out of an early round I feel like the sky’s the limit for her because her ceiling is so high, and she only loses to unforced errors. So yeah, Gauff in three, but I don’t think she can afford the type of struggles she had against Mertens and Wozniacki. Muchova has a way bigger offense than those two, and played herself out of their last match.

Keys vs Sabalenka

It’s pretty cool that Madison Keys can still reach the late rounds of a major. Her last round was a bit of a gift, but with Keys there’s no guarantee that she’ll sign for the package. Vondrousova entered the match with a visibly injured shoulder. She beat Peyton Stearns, but looked uncomfortable throughout. Marketa didn’t look much better against Keys, and really struggled when she was swinging wide on her forehand. The first set was a blowout, and I give credit to Vondrousova for playing on. She managed to get a few break points in the second because it’s hard for Keys to maintain that level throughout a match, but Madison knew it was just a matter of hitting the ball hard to the open court a few times, and she got the job done. It’s a great result, and beating Samsonova, Pegula, and the reigning Wimbledon champ is already a wonderful week. I mention this because, the week is probably over.

Aryna Sabalenka has been reliably beating everyone she’s played so far. Zheng, Kasatkina, and Burel are all names you’d expect her to defeat, but she’s managing to do it without any real pressure. If you take away the scoreline pressure against a big server, you get the business, and it means that the next round hinges heavily on Keys’ serving. She’s been able to keep her service games together for the first 5-6 games so far this tournament, which gives her a shot at the first set. The problem is, Sabalenka is a pretty good returner. If she gets a look at a second, Keys is in trouble. I can tell you beautiful things about Madison’s offense. She’s the biggest hitter on tour. Her backhand down the line can be deadly. When it comes to defense and consistency though, the stats go way down.

Sabalenka seeing Rybakina and Swiatek go out has to have increased her focus, but she already was doing well in this department. She spoke early this year at the Australian Open about her and her team being energized by some of the success at the World Tour Finals, and how hard she’d been working to just maintain that level. A player realizing their only limitation is their consistency is one thing, but putting in the work and changing the entirety of their reputation as a player is pretty solid. Sabalenka can serve just as well as Keys, but she can defend a bit better and she hits harder on both wings. This should be excellent, but I think Sabalenka is a break better in every set they play. Sabalenka in 2.