2023 US Open Women's Round One 🐢

Swiatek vs Peterson

Swiatek got a big boost for this event, as the US Open has elected to switch balls for the women’s event. The Wilson regular duty ball will be replaced by the heavy duty ball. The end result of this for this section of the draw is a boost for Swiatek’s game. The regular duty is a bit lighter and the tendency for her shots to fly is more prevalent. Cincinnati and Montreal used the heavy duty ball and Swiatek made the semifinals and finals respectively, losing to Gauff and Pegula. It doesn’t make her superhuman, obviously, but it makes her a lot more consistent. The pressure she was putting on all her opponents’ service games was noticeable, and since she has that Nadal style of constantly hitting to the open court and windmilling her forehand, being able to put more returns in play is a big boost for her. If she gets there, it should help her a bit in solving the Rybakina/Sabalenka puzzle as well.

This first round is a good warmup. Peterson has been playing well this month but she’s yet to win a set against Swiatek and Iga has had two great weeks of competitive tennis to get her ready. We can get optimistic about Ostapenko but she’s a flight risk and Kudermetova has been struggling, so this section of the draw is wide open for Iga. Swiatek in 2.

Ngounoue vs Saville

This one is closer than name recognition would suggest. Clervie Ngounoue has been winning a lot of matches. She just won the junior Wimbledon title, and so far this hardcourt season she nabbed a win against Blinkova and Anderson. She lost a three-setter to Rakhimova in Chicago a week ago, but that’s not really a bad result and Kamila is a slight bit better and more resilient than Saville right now. Daria is like a mini-Halep in terms of court coverage and creativity, but recently the results haven’t been there. Her last two wins are walkovers and she’s lost in straights to Maria and Birrell. Again, not bad Ls but there’s not a whole lot to say that she’s going to beat a junior standout who’s at the top of her game in terms of sharpness. Even on tour, you’re really not playing as much tennis as you are in the juniors so I think this could be tricky. Experience on a big stage does help, and it’ll be interesting to see if Ngounoue’s match against Rakhimova helps her navigate a win against a very similar defensive baseliner in Saville. Ngounoue in 3.

Davis vs Kovinic

Lauren Davis opened up the season with a win against Sloane Stephens but hasn’t won a match since. She hasn’t played poorly though, and that activity against Bencic, Parks, and Stephens should have her sharp enough to win this match. Davis and Kovinic have traded wins back and forth, generally in 3 setters, but this time Kovinic is a bit rusty. She’s returning from a short layoff due to a back injury, and it should give Lauren a slight advantage here if this goes the distance. Kovinic is the bigger hitter, but they’re very similar players so the rust has to be a small concern. Davis in 2-3.

Cocciaretto vs Juvan

Juvan did well to fight through qualifying. Her last match against Sakatsume was really good quality, as the Japanese squad really played excellent tennis this past week. This brings up a winnable match against Cocciaretto. Elisabetta has a really solid serve and some good power from the baseline, but hardcourt is not her best surface so Juvan could get an early jump on her. I don’t expect Juvan to instantly be back to her best form, but she was a pretty regular performer on tour for a few seasons so this match is well within her grasp and having some matches in on the courts helps a bit. I think this will wind up in a third, and Juvan might be the better player at that point. Juvan in 3.

Ostapenko vs Paolini

Jasmine Paolini has been playing some of her best tennis lately but she’s somehow not favored here. Ostapenko is wildly inconsistent, and is easily moved by the result of points. It stands to reason that Paolini (being a very consistent defender with good speed) is a good candidate to frustrate her, but it’s very tough to predict when Jasmine is going to show up. Her short stature makes her serve a liability, and an aggressive returner like Jelena should thrive. Paolini mostly scores with her inside-out forehand, but Ostapenko is fairly decent at redirecting down the line so that might be negated. This just feels like a spot where Ostapenko will be giving up points cheaply, but the cumulative pressure of her battering away will have Paolini behind the baseline and Ostapenko is hard to defend against when she has court position and a passive opponent. Ostapenko in 2.

Avanesyan vs Cornet

Avanesyan has a higher ceiling here, and I really like her ability to defend as the match goes on. That being said, she’s been sticking to clay events and Cornet has played 7 matches on hard already. It should be a drawn out affair with lovely hitting, but it’s a bit too close to call since Avanesyan will be shaking off a little bit of rust. Cornet does have a great ability to hit with good length from anywhere on the court, so I would imagine even with control of rallies that Avanesyan would have a tricky time capitalizing. Real good tennis, but real hard to predict a clear edge. Avanesyan in 3.

Grabher vs Wang

Good opener here for Wang. Julia Grabher is up there with Sakkari in terms of fitness, but so far she’s really thrived only on clay where she has time and utilizing height on her shots is more effective. In terms of style, she has a similar shot selection to early Casper Ruud, and since Xiyu has such a solid offense and good power, I think Grabher will have a hard time defending for the duration of the match. Expecting a close match in the rallies but Wang to win in 2.

Pera vs Kudermetova

Kudermetova has been pretty bad by her standards this past month, but this is still a match she should win. Pera just isn’t as good off clay, and the inconsistency is the main thing that will hurt you against Veronika. Kudermetova losing to Venus Williams was a huge surprise in Cinncinati, but she did beat Podoroska the following week in Clevelend before falling to Sorribes Tormo. The Tormo loss would be a concern, but when she’s on it’s very difficult to hit through her, so a player struggling with their confidence and consistency is not the pick to do so. Kudermetova just has to land first serves here and she should be fine. Pera is always a threat to win a set since she has such a big forehand, but these conditions are more suited to baseliners. Kudermetova in 2-3.

Kvitova vs Bucsa

This reminds me of those animes where two people are flying towards each other and both are throwing a punch or a dragon ball or a tamagotchi or whatever. Kvitova absolutely thumps the ball and when she’s serving well, she can beat you in 20 minutes. Bucsa takes a different approach, doing most of her work from the baseline, but she takes a full swing at almost everything on her forehand. When Cristina misses, she loses games quickly, but what I like about her game so far in her career is that she sticks with the plan. At some point, she finds a good rhythm, and there have been a lot of 3 set wins in her record over the past few seasons.
She has a puncher’s chance here, but Kvitova has played some good tennis in the past month, and Bucsa hasn’t really scored a win of this caliber on hardcourt yet this season. Expecting fireworks, but for Kvitova to have an early lead. Kvitova in 2-3.

Wozniacki vs Prozorova

This will be another close match. Prozorova resurrected herself several times late in the match against Shymanovich, and I would give Shymanovich a decent chance against Wozniacki in her current form. The losses so far for Wozniacki haven’t been so bad. Vondrousova would beat most players right now, and Gracheva is pretty solid at times. It puts this match in a pretty winnable spot for Prozorova. She’s fairly consistent and that’ll be big against Wozniacki, who lacks power and accuracy in her current state but will still keep the ball in play. I’d expect this to come down to stamina, and I might give the edge to the younger player. I watched the qualifiers intently and the WTA side was one of the highest quality draws that has been present in a long time, so I’m perhaps a tiny bit biased in estimating their levels here. Still, Prozorova has won three tough three setters in a row and I think she can keep it going. Prozorova in 3.

Brady vs Birrell

I’m glad Birrell got a lucky loser spot, because she played great today. Point blank, Crawley (who beat Birrell) is just really good. If you can’t overpower her, you’re going to have a hard time scoring, and when she gets inside the baseline her forehand is pretty tough to read since her stature makes it almost an overhand delivery. Birrell gets a rusty opponent here who she might have a chance against. In her last match, Birrell was slightly less consistent but was the bigger hitter. Here that situation is reversed. Brady seemed pretty solid in her return, and her forehand remains a complicated weapon for her opponents to solve. She isn’t hitting winners with it in general but she gets a ton of RPMs and it’s hard to do much with it. I think she’ll be a little more able to score her with safer shots than Birrell, and her serve is a bit bigger as well. Welcome back, Brady. Brady in 2.

Sasnovich vs Linette

Sasnovich has woken up in the past few weeks, and scored good wins against Navarro, Contreras Gomez, and Parks. These are good results for her, and since she’s not a huge ballstriker it’s hard to win consistently. Her forehand is the weaker wing, but she moves the ball very well when she has time. Her biggest weakness is her serve, but this is a familiar opponent so those issues might not be present. Magda Linette opened up her season with losses to Azarenka and a resurgent Ann Li, but I don’t completely write her off here. Their previous matches have mostly gone Sasnovich’s way, but the scorelines tend to be close (the last one went three) and when you’ve played so many times (5) the familiarity makes rallies hard to win. For me, Linette is a bit faster and a better defender. She has a better serve, but the h2h record seems to indicate that Sasnovich has the right formula to negate those advantages. Definitely one to check out, but their hardcourt seasons so far point to Sasnovich in 2-3.

Mertens vs Bjorklund

Bjorklund is becoming a veteran of qualifiers pretty quickly, and she’s landed in a tough first round I think for her particular gamestyle. Mertens is one of my favorite players, because she has basically every shot. Her results and play remind me a bit of Davidovich Fokina; she competes well against everyone, but has a hard time getting that final set win against the top tier of the tour. In the earlier rounds though, she’s usually pretty reliable which she’ll need here. Bkorklund is solid, but she usually is the bigger hitter in the qualifiers and Mertens is able to move the ball a bit more unpredictably than a lot of the qualifier opponents. Could be close, but Mertens in 2-3.

Collins vs Fruhvirtova

Danielle Collins has been a shell of herself during this season, but there are signs of hope in the past few weeks. She’s been winning matches and showing some fire out there, and this is a good spot there her opponent is in a bit of a slump. Fruhvirtova, like many junior standouts, won easily when she got on tour. Her ballstriking was amazing and her shot selection confused her opponents. The desire was there, and it paid dividends. What comes next is pretty common for phenoms. Slight injuries slow progress. Opposing coaches scout your shot patterns and it becomes harder to score during rallies. Fatigue and mental burnout creep in because you’re pretty much grinding away with no end in sight. You can love the game, but playing a tournament every other week sometimes slows down your innovation and you get caught in patterns that aren’t the most successful. Linda beat Collins in Dubai at the beginning of the year, but this time it feels like she’s the underdog. Collins has some good performances recently, and getting to play Swaitek twice (including taking a set off her) is just the best prep you can get on tour right now. She also defeated Sakkari and Fernandez (who’s ballin again), so I’m expecting Collins to level the h2h here. With a previous win, you can’t count Fruhvirtova out, and her flat hitting will be useful on these courts, but I think Collins playing at her home slam and in better form is a solid pick here. Collins in 2.

Andreeva vs Gadecki

Grumble. I got the chance to watch Gadecki and Chirico live and I really liked how error-free Gadecki was. She just kept every rally alive and it was tough for Chirico to maintain any momentum. In the final round of qualifying, Gadecki rolled Emina Bektas. I had hoped she’d land somewhere else, not because Andreeva can’t be beat, but because I don’t really have a good gauge on who will win this. Andreeva was just dealt a lopsided loss from Sloane Stephens, but before this she defeated Korpatsch who is projected to be around Gadecki’s level. I haven’t really seen Andreeva against a wall of an opponent yet, and I’m not 100% that she won’t enter the sort of hangover stage that junior phenoms tend to after their first big results on tour. Andreeva has exceptional placement and an okay serve, but she can definitely get outhit thus far and her losses have mostly been to big hitters. This could go three, but I think Andreeva is perhaps a bit more versatile than Gadecki and should get the job done. Andreeva in 3.

Siegemund vs Gauff

Siegemund was on a tear in qualifying, so this is not the draw she was looking for. Laura won’t give up, but she works the points and thrives in baseline rallies, and it’ll be hard for her to hit through Gauff. Coco is playing excellent, and looks like a decent shout to make a deep run here. Her serve and forehand are still a little off, which is scary to think about considering she’s already cemented herself at the top of the tour. This could be close early, but I think Gauff will pull away. Gauff in 2.

Rybakina vs Kostyuk

Kostyuk has been having one of her most motivated seasons so this is kind of an unfortunate draw. Rybakina is one of the heavy favorites to win any tournament she enters, and she plays a pretty similar style to Kostyuk. Both have pretty big power and mostly lose to their unforced errors. Kostyuk can provide some fireworks here since Rybakina isn’t the fastest but Elena has proven exceptional at trading power, and her serve is a big factor here. Rybakina in 2.

Udvardy vs Tomljanovic

Tomljanovic is returning from knee surgery, so her form is pretty hard to guess. She has great power and would beat Udvardy in two if she were active, but since this is her first match back I would expect her to struggle a bit. Udvardy is much better on clay, but she’s shown some occasional hardcourt brilliance. I haven’t seen too many players win their openers in their return from an injury, and I’m expecting Udvardy in 2.

Kalinskaya vs Siniakova

Kalinskaya has been dealing with a left leg injury, but she seems to be back. Contrary to what I said above about injury layoffs, I do think she has a chance to win here. Siniakova has 5 straight losses, and Kalinskaya was nearing the top of the tour before her injury. She’s a bit more consistent in general with her level, and her backhand is world-class which is a big boost in any matchup. Since she’s coming back from injury, I’d expect this to go to a third, but Siniakova’s skid is hard to overlook. Kalinskaya in 3.

Day vs Cirstea

Kayla Day can beat a lot of players in this draw, but I’m not sure she can outhit Cirstea. Day is a lefty with a decent serve and a solid forehand. She reminds me a little of Fernandez in her early days. The issue here will be Cirstea’s power. Since Day generally winds up a little bit behind the baseline, the match will be on Cirstea’s racquet. She’s classic for winding up in third sets, but she tends to win a good chunk of them. Cirstea in 3.

Azarenka vs Ferro

Ferro getting a wildcard is fortuitous but this is a rough first round. Azarenka in these conditions is nearly impossible to hit through, and Ferro generally has lapses in consistency. She did just make the finals in a Challenger event in Barranquilla, but the loss to Tatjana Maria represents a similar defensive test of patience. It’s great to see Ferro playing well again, but I think this is Azarenka in 2-3.

Zhu vs Sherif

This should be excellent. Sherif is a big hitter, even if she doesn’t really go for the most aggressive of shots. Zhu is one of the more overwhelming defensive baseliners in the game, and she’s just found her form this past week in cleveland, winning 4 matches in a row including names like Garcia and Kalinina. Zhu’s form means she’s a slight favorite to win here, but Sherif’s athleticism and solid play mean that it could take a very long time. Zhu in 3.

Betova vs Miyazaki

Miyazaki won most of her matches in qualifying as an underdog, but I think she’s a favorite here. Betova (you may remember her as Gasparyan) has returned to the tour but hasn’t really won many matches. She has a big serve and a lovely one-handed backhand, but consistency and lateral movement are her weaknesses and the Japanese federation has arrived this week with some very consistent players. Miyazaki in 2.

Rakhimova vs Bencic

Rakhimova is one of the more clutch players on tour, but she seems to have a ceiling as far as her results are concerned. Heading into a third against anyone out of the top 60, I love her chances. Here, it’ll be hard to get to that third. Bencic flies a little under the radar, but she’s been a game or two away from being in the late rounds of majors and in a ⅔ format her offense is capable of snagging anyone. This is a good opener because Rakhimova will make her play a ton of balls. Bencic in 2 close sets.

Muchova vs Hunter

Storm Hunter has been doing a little better recently, but this wild card spot has drawn into one of the few players in the draw who can win the tournament without the aid of upsets. Karolina Muchova is getting better and better. She lost a marathon against Swiatek in Montreal, but what I really liked is how well she played the break points on her serve. She doesn’t deviate her game and to have such a large amount of experience in big matches helps a lot. Muchova in 2.

Frech vs Navarro

Frech had a good grass-court swing, but hardcourt seems to still hold her back a bit. She can compete even with Navarro, but Emma has shown a bit more promise so far in her career. It’s hard to write Navarro’s name in round two because of her playstyle. She has a pretty big forehand and her results depend largely on whether it’s landing or not. More recent wins and some high level opponents give her a slight edge here. Navarro in 3.

Gracheva vs Townsend

Gracheva reminds me a tiny bit of Federer when she’s playing well. She has great technique on her forehand and moves the ball in a very creative manner. At the same time, she reminds me of Dimitrov when she’s losing. She struggles with errors and generally doesn’t have a plan B. I don’t find her game that hyper-aggressive, but she’s struggled a little against big hitters and Townsend has a pretty good bit of power in her forehand. For me, Townsend and Gracheva have the same issues with consistency. When they win they seem like world-beaters, but the next round they might be struggling with shanks. Gracheva is a little bit better defensively and I like her backhand and cardio more than Townsend’s, so I think she can squeak this out. Gracheva in 3.

Stephens vs Haddad Maia

Sloane has been playing really well, with wins against Garcia, Andreeva, and Davis. Haddad Maia has lost her last two matches, yet still I think she’s the favorite here. Stephens wins with her power and her defense. When she’s not making rally ball errors, it becomes very tough to score on her, but Haddad Maia doesn’t really force the issue, and she generally is a bit more focused and level-headed than Stephens. A loss to Tormo is Stephens’ last result, and I think Haddad will look to hang in as long as possible which will give her a chance to ply her lefty offense and find a good rhythm. For Sloane to win this, it’ll have to be in two sets I think. I’m thinking Haddad Maia in 3 though.

Kalinina vs Sorribes Tormo

This should be fun. Kalinina is one of the bigger offenses on tour. She has a huge serve, and her groundstrokes are to small targets. She’s pretty tall so her main weakness is her lateral movement, and this season she’s been a bit off if I’m being honest. It’s just hard to come up with that type of mercurial offense week after week. Sorribes Tormo is the exact wrong opponent for Kalinina to play, since she’s one of the best defenders in the game. She can put any ball back in play, and when she’s playing well (just won the title in Cleveland) she’s a tough out for anyone on tour. Kalinina did just beat Bogdan last week, but she withdrew in the next round against Maria. Tormo in two is fairly likely.

Wang vs Volynets

For some reason, I always think Volynets is Australian. That’s not really germaine to the article, but ya know, there ya go. She’s playing well and beat Erika Andreeva in 3 in qualifying and Naef in straights, but Wang is a tougher test. Volynets has great variety, but she’s a bit outmatched in the power department here. They’ve played twice previously but only on clay, and split those meetings. I’d expect a close one, but Wang has won a number of solid matches recently (beat Burel in 3) and went to 3 with Alexandrova. I think she will eventually wear down Volynets. Wang in 3.

Schmiedlova vs Baindl

Good matchup here with two solid baseliners. Schmiedlova is a bit more active and hits a heavier ball, so I’d expect her to win here a good chunk of the time. Schmiedlova in 2-3.

Masarova vs Sakkari

Masarova isn’t expected to win here, but she’s not the player I’d want to be expected to beat. Masarova has easy power and is a bit like a combo of a young Samsonova/Rybakina. Her attitude on court is exemplary, and she carries this composure over into her mechanics. She doesn’t force the issue, and she doesn’t overhit just because a point is going long. I expect Sakkari to outlast her, but it’ll require the best Sakkari to show up. Lately she’s been playing well, so Sakkari in 2-3.

Garcia vs Wang Yafan

Yafan Wang is going to wind up back on tour. I’m not even sure if Garcia will be able to stop her here. Wang has really overwhelmed her opponents in the past few weeks and by the time she was to the finals of qualifying she was a 6:1 favorite against her opponent. She rolled Ann Li in straights and zipped junior standout Bejlek twice. Her baseline game is really sharp and she’s moving the ball well and returning basically everything. It’s the exact formula that can capitalize on Garcia’s occasional lapses in form. Wang’s serve might be a slight liability here since Garcia stands in on returns, but Caroline hasn’t been that sharp in the past few weeks so I’m leaning into the upset. Wang in 2.

Boulter vs Parry

Boulter won their previous meeting 6-4, 6-2 in Indian Wells qualifying, but this match should be a bit closer. Katie withdrew during her match against Osorio in Cincinnati, and Parry has been starting to win matches again. Parry’s loss to Peterson is about the same level as Boulter, so it appears that Parry is still a little bit rushed by things on hardcourt. Her one-hander is beautiful, but it usually takes players a little longer to iron out this form of the backhand on hardcourt. I will prepare the items for a good ol fashioned Parry party (cookies and small bunnies to pat on the head), but if Boulter is healthy then she probably is more able to maintain position on the baseline and should win. Boulter in 2-3.

Stearns vs Tomova

Peyton Stearns remains one of the more exciting phenoms to come out of the US collegiate tennis program, but she has a few lopsided losses that I didn’t really expect. Playing at her home slam and with the crowd behind her, I do expect her to acquit herself well, but this is a difficult opener. Tomova can be very consistent, and she just won the title in Chicago, beating Bronzetti, Liu, Cornet and Rakhimova. It’s tricky sometimes to decide whether to weight the potential ceiling of both players, or their recent results. Stearns is definitely a bit better, and since Tomova wins most of her points from the baseline Peyton’s variety and footspeed should matter. Tomova hits a bit bigger, so Stearns will need to be patient and utilize height when she’s off-balance rather than trying to trade. Really interesting spot, and I’m not sure what’ll happen. Tentatively, Stearns in 3. Most of her losses are to a higher tier of player, and I think she’ll get played into form here by the second set.

Tauson vs Potapova

It’s been so interesting watching Potapova make the shift from a firebrand power-hitter who struggles with consistency to one of the tour’s more reliable performers. She doesn’t always win, but she makes life very difficult on her opponents. Similar struggles with consistency (and injury) are haunting Clara Tauson early in her career. The ability is there, but going the distance seems to see her get a bit fatigued both physically and mentally. She withdrew from her last match against Fernandez down a set, and Potapova has the same type of overwhelming presence with a good bit more power. This should see some clean hitting, and Potapova pulling away. Potapova in 2.

Alexandrova vs Fernandez

It’s cool to see Leylah winning matches again, but I didn’t believe it the first few times it happened. It’s interesting to follow the pricing of the markets surrounding these players, and seeing Fernandez at even odds to win for a few matches in a row gave me a hint that she’d get it together soon. She has, and that means Alexandrova will have a worthy opponent here. Alexandrova is coming off a finals appearance in Cleveland and an in-form Alexandrova can beat just about anyone. I’m not sure what fatigue will be in play here, but this should be close. Fernandez can tire her opponent out but Alexandrova has a laser of a backhand so the normal lefty patterns won’t really work. Similarly, Alexandrova is the clear leader in terms of offensive stats but she can struggle with consistency over a long match which this might be. For me, Fernandez is the slightly more unknown commodity here given her recent surge. Alexandrova does show up a few weeks a year in top form, and she seems to have found that here. Alexandrova in 3.

Tsurenko vs Jacquemot

Elsa Jacquemot was down an early break to Hartono, but it seemed like she had a formula to beat her. She hit looping forehands down the line almost every other point, and Hartono struggled to maintain depth on her backhand from there. Once Jacquemot got the score level, she was able to win a tiebreak and pull away. She has a really skillful game and a solid serve, and wins against Shnaider are hard to come by for anyone so her future is bright. Up next is a tough one though. Tsurenko won’t have trouble with any baseline offerings or height, and generally she only loses to players with big serves and power. Jacquemot should be competitive, but I’d imagine she’s a break worse each set. Tsurenko in 2.

Trevisan vs Putintseva

This will involve some “nyeaaaahhhh”s and could get pretty exciting by the end of the match. Trevisan is a fast left-handed player who reminds me a little of Diego Schwartzman if he smiled all the time. Putintseva is a very resilient pusher who utilizes moonballs and reminds me of Diego Schwartzman if he yelled at his box and smashed racquets all the time. There’s not a lot of difference in their recent results, and I’d chalk that up to the depth of the WTA right now. It’s really hard to win just via defending, because in an early round most of the players are really crushing the ball. Trevisan might have the bigger offense here as she hits her forehand down the line well and is a bit more willing to push the issue, but Putintseva is capable of dragging this into deep waters and she might be a bit stronger physically. Putintseva in 3.

Vondrousova vs Han

Pretty cool seeing Stefanini and Han go at it, since they both have a heavy two-handed forehand. Na-Lae is through, and it’s not much of a reward. She’ll have her chances to rally since Vondrousova is a bit passive about ending rallies, but Marketa has reached another tier and Han was mostly winning behind her power. Vondrousova in 2.

Samsonova vs Liu

Samsonova finally getting a win against Sabalenka was pretty great, and given her hype and struggle it was kind of surprising seeing her toss in so many first round losses over the past two seasons. Her in good form means Claire Liu is a solid underdog in this. Liu just won a few matches in Chicago, but the power differential here is pretty big. Samsonova should carry over her good form into this event, as the warmup events in Montreal and Cincinnati were using the same Wilson heavy duty balls. Liu is a tricky out because she hits a very flat ball and Liudmila can be a bit error-prone, but Samsonova in 2.

Begu vs Korpatsch

Korpatsch is really exceptional in a rhythm. I had kind of written her off as a clay-court grinder, but her playing Mirra Andreeva close showed that she isn’t bothered by the moment and is capable of playing a high level. That solid hitting will be necessary here, as Begu is one of the more reliable performers in early rounds at the majors. Begu has a big serve and a long wingspan, but somehow she’s really good at trading in those lateral sprint rallies that come up so often in tennis. Korpatsch is sharp, and Begu lost her only warmup match to Bouzkova in Cinncinati, so this could be close. It feels like Begu’s average level is good enough to win though, and the difference in hitting should be the deciding factor. Begu in 3.

Rus vs Keys

Madison has been playing decent lately, and if she’s serving well she should win this in two. Rus is a talented lefty so it’s always tricky, but she hasn’t been notching this caliber of wins lately. Keys in 2.

Svitolina vs Friedsam

Friedsam can definitely put pressure on Svitolina here, but I’m not sure she can hit through her for a whole match. It’s nice having Svitolina back on tour, but it’s going to take a great performance to beat her in these slightly slower conditions. Svitolina in 2.

Pavlyuchenkova vs Crawley

If Pavlyuchenkova watches footage of Crawley, she can win this match. Legit, Fiona Crawley is really good. She puts the ball back with interest from everywhere on the court, and if you take your foot off the gas her footwork is very proactive moving forward and taking the ball up the line or cross. She reminds me a bit of Lauren Davis with power, and I’m interested to see if her overwhelming play can bother Pavs. Since Pavlyuchenkova hits the ball so hard, this is likely a tricky match for Crawley, but she already won three matches as an underdog and what I saw against Birrell was tour-level stuff. Pavs in 3 or possibly the upset.

Tig vs Marino

Tig is entering with a protected ranking, and she hasn’t been active in a long time. She was a really solid defensive player who mostly won on clay, so Marino should wrap this up in straight sets with her big serving.

Giorgi vs Pegula

I’ve heard that Giorgi has trouble getting hitting partners on tour because of how aggressive she is, so this isn’t really the first round Pegula was looking for. Still, Camila’s aggression does make her a bit inconsistent, and Pegula is defending really well at the moment and had a great North American swing including a title win over Swiatek in Montreal.

Jabeur vs Osorio

Jabeur at a major seems to be the best version of her, but back to back Wimbledon final losses are probably bothering her a bit. This is a good chance to put that behind her, and she played decent over the past month. She’s not at her best, but her current level is still in the top 5 in tennis, so Osorio will be going uphill. Camila is excellent from the baseline and has great speed, so if Jabeur is impatient or struggles on serve this could go three. Jabeur in 2-3.

Noskova vs Brengle

I have a tough time predicting Brengle this year. She’s really good at breaking serve and has a lot of experience, but she’s a tiny bit past her prime. A player like Noskova has the power and serving to beat Brengle, but she seems to follow up her best play with some slumps. Since she hits a pretty flat ball, it’s tough for her when her accuracy is off or her energy levels are low. This is a match she really has to win at this point, despite a lopsided losses to Fernandez last week. Brengle has been grinding on the Challenger tour, so I expect her to be at her best, but Noskova is supposed to be a big step up. I don’t know why I’m scared to write “Noskova in 2”, so I’ll write Noskova in 3.

Maria vs Martic

This one instantly made me want to go check the h2h. There is so much skill between these two players that it feels difficult to point to a clear differential. Martic is 3-0, so there’s the puzzle almost solved. I say almost because those matches took place over 5 years ago, with one taking place in 2014. These are some legends but they both still seem competitive on tour. Since Martic’s big weakness is her lateral movement, Maria slicing the ball probably doesn’t impact her a lot. Martic also has an excellent backhand slice herself and a very free-form forehand, so the slower pace likely doesn’t bug her much. I’m expecting the dominance to continue, because although Maria is winning a lot at the lower Challenger tier, Martic has recently beat Navarro and Bucsa, and played Muchova to 3 in Cincinnati. Martic in 3.

Krueger vs Bouzkova

Bouzkova is having a rough season but she seems to have found her groove here on hardcourt. She beat Pegula, Mertens, and Begu in Cincinnati before withdrawing against Muchova. Ashlyn Krueger is probably the closest thing to Sabalenka that the USTA has on their roster, but she hasn’t put it all together yet on the big stage. A loss to Peterson last week means that it’ll be very difficult to hit through Bouzkova. Even if Krueger can win a set, which I think is entirely possible, Bouzkova has shown the ability to really dig in and frustrate the best offenses on tour, and Krueger’s consistency just isn’t there yet. The future is really bright for US women’s tennis, but right now I think it’s Bouzkova in 2-3.

Zheng vs Podoroska

It’s good to see both of these players finding their range again. Podoroska had been in a slump for a long time but she played well last week, well enough that I thought she’d have a good shot here. Zheng is still a bit less automatic than she was when she stormed onto the tour, but here she’ll have a decent advantage in the backhand department. Podoroska has a springy offense and a crispy forehand, but Zheng has these things and has a great serve to give her a bit of an edge. Zheng in 3.

Strycova vs Kanepi

It’s going to feel weird at the majors if Kanepi ever retires. She just has a way of showing up and winning a handful of matches before providing a tremendous show against one of the top seeds. Her power should be enough her to upend Strycova’s serve and volley tactics, but this should be a solid match between two tremendous veterans of the tour. Kanepi in 2.

Montgomery vs Lys

Eva Lys cruised through qualies. She really was never in trouble, and since she’s a lefty that is a really scary prospect. Lefties just are a whole extra complication to beat, and Montgomery is a talented player but this is probably over her head. Lys is going to be very good. Lys in 2.

Bronzetti vs Krejcikova

When I was filling out my bracket I had a pretty tough time seeing Krejcikova through to the next round. Her ceiling is infinitely higher, but Bronzetti is out here winning matches and Krejcikova is out here visibly struggling to refind the game that saw her win Roland Garros. Her last loss is a quick straight set dismissal from Clara Tauson, and before that she lost in straights to Azarenka. It’s just tough to win when the ball isn’t going through the hoop, and Lucia will make her play a ton of balls to win so I think this might result in an upset. Bronzetti in 3.

Kasatkina vs Parks

This should be one of the best matches of the first round. Alycia Parks has the kind of game that makes you discuss major titles. Her serve is fluid and excellent, her forehand is huge, and her speed is top tier. The progress towards consistency on the court has been constant, and these are the kind of opportunities that she’ll want to really pour herself into. Kasatkina is becoming a legendary competitor. She was the first person I walked past on the grounds on Thursday, and I was a bit surprised at how tall she seems. Her girlfriend also looks so impossibly cool, which is not really relevant to the conversation but it’s always nice when people look the same in real life as they do on tv. Kasatkina’s defense is the exact test that Parks needs to pass to really threaten for big titles, so I’ll be tuning in for this one. I’ll be tuning in for all of them I guess, but THIS ONE I’M TUNING IN FOR WITH CAPITAL LETTERS. I think at this stage Kasatkina is a bit too experienced and quick for Parks, but the rallies should be excellent. Kasatkina in 2-3.

Bogdan vs Kenin

There is a good chance that Kenin balls out here, but this is a tough first round because of how the players match up. Bogdan won their previous meeting on hardcourt in 3, and I’m not surprised she’s had success against Kenin. Bogdan has a huge backhand and is pretty consistent. She’s not afraid to slow the game down and moonball her way to the finish line, and having both consistency and a big backhand is kind of what Kenin thrives on. Usually with a few swings of her backhand Kenin has gotten inside the baseline, but here these exchanges might be even. Bogdan lost both her warmup matches to Kalinina and Sasnovich, but Kenin hasn’t played since Wimbledon. With Kasatkina/Parks waiting in the second round there is another lengthy battle coming, so both players will want to get a fast start here. Kenin’s losses this season have been hard to watch, and her wins have made me think she’s about to win a title. A lot will be evident early on here. Expecting a long match. Kenin in 3.

Williams vs Minnen

For the first time in a while, Venus Williams 100% deserves her wildcard here. She’ll have a chance to win this match too since Greetje Minnen is a bit of a servebot. Williams’ height should give her a good shot at returning serves, but she’s still a bit slower than you really need to be on tour. I’m expecting the crowd to be relatively willing to do whatever it takes to will Venus to a win, but I think this should be an even match and Minnen has won a lot of matches recently. Venus might run out of gas towards the end here. Minnen in 3.

Vekic vs Vickery

Once the edge is off in a match, it’s really hard to hit past Vickery. She doesn’t go for a ton, but she gets into a rhythm of putting balls in play and then her power starts to pay dividends. Luckily for Donna Vekic, she has enough offense to navigate this. She can crush the ball for three sets, so as long as she maintains decent first serve percentages, she should win in 2.

Pliskova vs Ruse

I’m playing a game called “pick every qualifier to win”. Ruse has been overshadowed by some of her contemporaries, but she has a very promising game. Big power, the ability to redirect off both wings, and a general resistance to backing off the baseline make her a tough out for anyone. Beating Yastremska and Galfi is around the level of tennis you need to bring to be competitive against Pliskova, and Karolina can really struggle in an early round. This could go to three, and like any Pliskova match it really just matters which version shows up. The servebot can win this 6-3, 6-1. The error machine can lose in 3 without changing facial expressions. I’m excited to see it, but I think it’ll be door #2. Ruse in 3.

Dolehide vs Burel

I really like Dolehide’s game, but she’s had a hard time staying in the top 100. She has a huge kick serve and great power on her forehand, but the WTA just has so many defensive baseliners that can deal with these things that it feels like she’ll need to add some elements to her game to really dominate. I’d point to Begu as a good blueprint. She has a heavy forehand and a good serve, but she really thrives by being able to hit her backhand down the line. It just opens up the court a lot. The match should be on her racquet here, but Burel has a habit of beating big offenses (most notably nabbing a win against Rybakina in this event last year). Burel in 2.

Blinkova vs Burrage

Blinkova has been struggling a bit to find wins on tour, and she’ll have her hands full with Burrage here. Jodie Ann has been playing enthusiastic tennis and her power reminds me a little bit of early Raducanu. I suppose she’s probably heard that comparison before, so it’s the last time I’ll make it. Since Blinkova is struggling and Burrage’s game is on the way up, I think Burrage is the pick here. Burrage in 2.

Zanevska vs Sabalenka

Sabalenka has a pretty good draw here, with Pliskova a bit off her mark, and Kasatkina and Vekic likely to have a difficult match before they meet Sabalenka. Zanevska is solid, but she’s a good sight better on clay. Sabalenka in 2.