2023 US Open Women's Finals 🐢

WTA Finals

Gauff vs Sabalenka

The finals are here and it is probably the best matchup we could have asked for. There were some bigger names in the mix at the US Open, but Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka have turned in some amazing performances over the past two weeks. One of them will hoist their first US Open title. For Gauff, it would be her first Grand Slam title overall. For Sabalenka, it would be her second hardcourt title this season, after she won a thriller in Australia to start the season. Both are playing their best level heading into the finals, and both overcame big tests in the semifinals, so this should be good.

In wildly different ways, both semifinals were amazing, and a little hard to watch. Karolina Muchova is a tremendously consistent offensive talent, and her defensive skill is top tier. Against Gauff though, she just can’t seem to keep the ball in the court. Gauff’s speed seems to really make her force shots, and she resorted to moonballs and slices quite often in this match. The first set saw her rack up unforced errors and just genuinely gift the set to Gauff, but she did regroup in the second. Seeing Muchova perform at less than her normal level of tennis is rough, but it’s the same puzzled approach she took in the Cincinnati finals so it seems to just be a matchup issue; this means all credit goes to Gauff.

In the second set, it became actually tough to watch, as climate protestors disrupted the match and stopped play for a good forty minutes. It was a big momentum swing, as Muchova had taken some medication during the first set. The disruption gave her time for whatever she took to kick in, and she got a lengthy massage during the break. When play resumed, Gauff was out of rhythm and Muchova was playing solid again.

The second set still seemed to head Gauff’s way, but serving at 5-3 she was broken and her game tightened up. Muchova had started to isolate Gauff’s forehand, and that wing did break down. Gauff decelerated on that wing, and just focused on making the ball back into the court. Not ideal, but Muchova just wasn’t ready to go big with her backhand at that point, and she shied away from the forehand inside-out. Muchova saved 5 match points in this, but she never really found a way to score on Gauff. As Coco gets more comfortable and as these big results ease more and more of the pressure and expectations off her, that is likely to become an even more difficult puzzle to solve.

It was hard to watch Muchova’s level drop, but it ended up being an exciting match. Keys vs Sabalenka was pretty much amazing from start to finish, but was difficult to watch for an entirely different reason. Part of the way through an epic battle, I start to remember that one of these players has to lose. Seeing them leave it all out there is inspirational, and by the third set I really wanted Keys and Sabalenka to somehow arrive at a tie. Prior to the match I pointed out Keys’ inability to play defense. I owe her a huge apology on this. I said that Sabalenka would hit through her and she would be rushed. I had this backwards. Madison played maybe the best tennis I’ve ever seen her play in this one, and my expected roles were completely reversed. Keys found shot after shot in the first set, and Sabalenka’s double fault issues returned. It doesn’t feel like any opponent would have had a chance in the first set against Keys, and the highlights for the match are really worth watching.

In the second, not much changed. Keys came out firing, and Sabalenka struggled. She was broken for 2-1, for 3-2, and it seemed like with her inconsistent play, and her being somewhat outhit in the rallies, there was no chance. Unfortunately, serving for the match is one of the toughest things in tennis, and at 5-4 Madison finally played a poor game. Sabalenka held to love for 6-5, and although Keys saved two set points in the next game to force a tiebreaker, Aryna found an excellent stretch of tennis right when she needed to, winning the tiebreak 7-1.

The third set was tense. There were 6 break points and 2 breaks of serve exchanged, and when they arrived at 6-6, it felt really unfair that one of them had to eat the loss. Sabalenka jumped out to an early 4-0 lead, and although she celebrated early at 7-3, Keys just played two poor tiebreakers and it cost her the match. I don’t know if we’ll see that level of tennis from her all the time, but it was one of the best semifinals that’s been played in a long time. Her press conference was pretty emotional, but hopefully in time she sees that her fans love her for the show she puts on, not the numbers that go in a book or the trophies that go in a case. I loved seeing her showcase her defensive skills and it’s probably the fastest I’ve ever seen her move.

After the match Sabalenka was asked about her relationship with her team and responded with “THEY FIRED. THEY NOT MY TEAM ANYMORE.” It’s really fun to see the other side of Sabalenka, and I think her being willing to emote and accept the situation, even if it includes unwanted results and emotions, was a big key in her getting through this match. Given her unforced errors and struggles on serve, the next match is potentially a huge problem. Gauff is a wall, and she serves very well at times. It’s a powerful delivery, but she’ll want to note a few things from the last match. Keys had good success from the deuce side serving out wide to Sabalenka’s forehand. Sabalenka put a number of these returns long and into the net, and it’s unlikely her footwork will suddenly be quick in the finals. Sabalenka was able to gradually wrestle control back from Keys in the backhand exchanges, but she struggles with this wing when the ball was low, so Gauff’s solid counterpunching on that wing might be effective.

It’s easy to hand the trophy to Gauff here after watching Sabalenka’s early struggles, but she doesn’t really bring the type of offense that Keys did. No one really does honestly, and sometimes getting through a tough match where there was a lot of pressure can free you up in the next round. Gauff has had lapses late in the second set, and this is when Sabalenka found some of her best tennis in the semifinals. They did just play in Indian Wells, with Sabalenka winning a lopsided two setter (4,0), but that surface is so different. Whoever can actually hit through the court there has a big edge, and Gauff is a great player but really no one hits as big as Sabalenka. Overall the h2h stands at 3-2 for Gauff, but her and Sabalenka are having their best seasons ever so this feels like a brand new matchup.

If Gauff can apply pressure here and get good depth, she’ll earn errors. If she’s able to get ahead in Sabalenka’s service games, I do think she’ll break as the scoreboard pressure from Keys and the big hitting was what forced a lot of tension on Sabalenka’s delivery. The problem for Gauff though is going to be holding onto that lead for 2 whole sets. Sabalenka has done well this week against big hitters like Zheng and against defensive players like Kasatakina. Heading into the Keys match, I think most people expected her to continue rolling, so it really was offense that impacted her level of tennis and her confidence.

Gauff will have the crowd and she’s playing great, but I’m not sure that she can keep Sabalenka as off-balance as Madison did, so I think this match is more about Sabalenka’s unforced error count than anything else. I don’t see a way for Gauff to win in straight sets unless Sabalenka just implodes (this is possible though). I don’t see a way for Sabalenka to win in straights since she’s going to make errors trying to hit through such a solid defender. In the end, I think Sabalenka will have a slightly easier time scoring quick points, and she showed against Keys that she can dig in and win the hard way when it’s required. Expecting an instant classic from these two great champions, and Aryna to be slightly more ready to go big at the end. Sabalenka in 3.