2023 US Open Men's & Women's Round Two - Wednesday Matches 🐢

ATP Singles

Ruud vs Zhang

Emilio Nava made a huge impact in round one even in a losing effort. He was able to push Casper to the brink of defeat in the fourth set and even had the announcers saying they thought he might be the fresher player if they went to a fifth. In the end, Ruud pulled through. The promise that Nava showed by being able to redline for such an extended duration is excellent, but Ruud’s steady level feels inevitable at times when his opponent is doing that. I did love Nava’s wide kick serve from the ad side. He was moving all the way towards the doubles alley and sending Ruud nearly into the bleachers. This is a great tactic on a big stage. Misdirection is key, but no one is outrunning the ball in sport, so moving a top player off the court is always a good option. It’ll probably have to come next season, but with Nava’s power and tenacity he should be able to break into the top 100.

While Ruud was dismissing a pretty capable challenger, Zhang was disappointing a whole lot of American fans. J.J. Wolf came into the match as the favorite, and he’d been playing some solid tennis so it made sense. Zhang prefers clay, but his power paid off in this match. When the ball is high, he’s able to lean over it and hit really heavy forehands. In between this, he’s pretty reliable on his backhand wing and just batters away. It doesn’t net him a ton of points, but it makes the workload clear and it keeps opponents from profiting off cheap errors. This is a big plus for him because he does have a big serve. If he can basically force people to come up with offense, and net cheap points every so often, he becomes another Khachanov type player who always seems to play to the level of his opponent, but is never really easily defeated (asterisk for this event because Khachnov just hasn’t been playing any tennis recently).

Ruud is a bit different than Wolf because he’s not really looking to return shots with significant interest. His defense is rock solid and his stamina is there. Announcers seemed to think he looked fatigued against Nava, but that would really overlook the deep runs he’s made at almost every major he’s entered in the past few years. The guy is a cut above the early round opposition and that experience and ability matters. I’d expect Zhang to be very competitive here but I think he may hit a few more unforced errors against Ruud simply because the ball will be coming back in a wider variety of heights and paces. Ruud has a good backhand slice, he has a good ability to infuse height and depth while defending towards his forehand, and overall I think he’s just a slightly more consistent player than Zhang. Should be a close match in the scoreline, but Ruud feels a bit inevitable. Ruud in 4-5.

Hijikata vs Fucsovics

Hijikata had some early trouble with the serve and power of Kotov, but he’s really aiming higher with his game than Pavel. Hijikata is a complete player, and is still improving physically and tactically. His serve got better this year, and that’ll be a big key in this round because he’s not going to be a favorite in a long match. Fucsovics is through after a five set marathon against Korda, who I can only imagine is infuriating to drive behind if you’re late for work. I know it’s because of his tall stature, but it just always looks like he’s not swinging as hard as he could. It’s another in a long list of seemingly unnecessary losses, but Korda has shown that he has a very wide range of play. It wasn’t a bad performance, but when he shows up healthy to an event the announcers discuss him as a dark-horse, and Fucsovics is a guy who’s generally not that dangerous and doesn’t make it past the 3rd round.

Hijikata has a chance here if he gets off to a good start. He generally reminds me of early-Ruud in terms of level variation. He’s capable of turning in a perfect set as far as decision-making and execution, but then he can drop off a bit early in the second. He also seems to always be playing at near-max speed in terms of ballstriking so mentally it’s going to be a draining match for him. Fucsovics went to 5, but he’s a pretty fit dude so he should be good here. Fucsovics can definitely compete at a higher level, but a lot of that is because he’s strong and consistent. He doesn’t really serve huge though, and he tends to get a bit passive during rallies on his backhand, electing to slice a bit too many and generally only taking his backhand cross-court. This is basically Hijikata’s offense vs the ever dwindling sands of time. If he can get a set or two done quickly, he has a chance. Most likely though, Fucsovics will be able to defend once Rinky’s level drops off and then he can rely on the ton of experience he has in marathon matches at the majors. Fucsovics in 4.

Mannarino vs Marozsan

Surprise! Marozsan won a second huge ATP tour match. Gasquet might not be the biggest name anymore, and he didn’t seem 100% physically, but I think a lot of people (myself included) were not giving Marozsan a shot on hardcourt until he proved it. Fans were treated to one of the most gelatinous forehands you’ll ever see hitting winner after winner. He just seemed to be able to zip the ball low to the open court and Gasquet’s legs were just not participating for a good chunk of the match. Once Marozsan finally made a few errors, Gasquet was able to secure two tiebreaks, but I’ve noticed the 3 set in a row comeback is really difficult to pull off on hardcourt. The fatigue and emotions are still there for your opponent, but since hardcourt requires hitting a ton of offensive shots, it’s just hard for guys to avoid making some poor decisions or safe choices once they finally get to a fifth, and the adrenaline surge for the underdog at that point is huge when they finally see the tide going their way again.

So Marozsan is through to the second level of this French Tennis Kombat video game he seems to be playing. In round three he might see Francois Tiafoe so who knows how far this could go. The offensive presence he showed in round one is really what you need to score on Mannarino, but the difference in speed and the ball you’re seeing from these guys is very big. Gasquet is using a lot of height and variation, and generally saves the gusto for the big points. It’s one reason he was struggling in the match but able to secure the tiebreaks; he’s crafty and he knows what his opponents are feeling in the moment. Mannarino hits a much flatter ball of both wings. This is excellent on these USO courts and he’ll keep the game on Marozsan’s backhand more than Gasquet did. Watanuki was at the finish line in every set, but he’s a bit more aggressive of a returner than Marozsan. Once we’ve seen one big upset, the question of a young player’s ceiling at the event is a bit unanswered, so this one is more exciting than predictable. Experience and a very annoying game to deal with is working in Mannarino’s favor though. Mannarino in 4-5.

Ofner vs Tiafoe

Tiafoe struggled a bit with Learner Tien, but it never really put the outcome in question. He has a cannon of a serve, and these courts and the NY environment is something he looks extremely comfortable on. I mention comfort because despite having entire coaching teams, a lot of these guys are stuck in “what is the right shot, what is the high percentage play” out there. It makes them predictable, and it keeps their opponents from having to think. It becomes just a physical challenge to beat these guys rather than a mental multiple choice test, but more importantly, it makes it harder for them to deviate on random points. If Tiafoe hits the ball down the line and thinks you’re going to go down the line also, he’ll hang out there. If he sees an opportunity to move around to his forehand or backhand on a predictable serve toss, he’ll go do it. It isn’t magic nor does it guarantee success, but you know that when that “move in on the return” or “rush the net” thought pops in your head, you tend not to do it automatically unless you’ve already had some practice doing so. It’s one big reason he’s able to elevate in a big match, because he’s paying a lot of attention to his opponent rather than trying to prove to the crowd or his team that he can play smart tennis.

Tiafoe is listed at -660 or something for this match, and that I don’t exactly agree with. He had some minor inconsistencies against Tien, and while he likely won’t be as lax against Ofner, Sebastian is playing some incredible tennis. Borges had pretty good chances to win and get to a fifth, but Ofner was able to win all the big points. He’s hitting the ball really hard on his backhand, and he’s shown the ability to take his forehand down the line even on the run. Add this to his serve being his best attribute, and it becomes a really tough and immediate test for Tiafoe. Borges did go a bit push-mode, but part of this was because of the cumulative pressure. If you hit the ball consistently harder than your opponent, you tend to play them into just looking to defend and hoping you make errors. It puts a lot of pressure on your percentage, but it does give you control and generally the bigger hitter is getting the lucky breaks. I felt like I was watching Cilic at times during the end of the Ofner match, and it’s hard for me to imagine him getting blanked here.

Tiafoe will have a good chance to hold serve here because Ofner is not the best returner, but he’ll need to maximize his chances on break points. He definitely needs to focus on keeping his backhand solid, because Ofner probably is better overall off that wing in terms of technique. The crowd will be a big boost to Frances, and since Borges saw the finish line, he should too. I just don’t think there is a quick way to get there because of how consistent Ofner’s ballstriking currently is. Not sure, again, how high his tennis translates, but I don’t see him getting beat quickly because of his gamestyle and his serving. You tell me Tiafoe is going to win? I think yes, he should, but he’ll need to step up to a much higher level than he displayed against Tien and it can sometimes take a little first set wakeup call to trigger that. It’s an interesting and frequent dilemma in predicting tennis. You know the level is in there, but it isn’t automatically going to appear. Tiafoe in 4-5.

Paul vs Safiullin

Tommy Paul may have dropped a set, but I still think he’s one of the favorites to make the semifinals here. Round one was a big server with a huge forehand. Round two is, the same thing. Did you enjoy lunch? Then you’re going to love, LUNCH AGAIN. Safiullin thumped Cecchinato in a match that was such a foregone conclusion that it almost made some think that Cecchinato had a chance. Given his win against Tommy in Madrid, he’ll be relatively comfortable with this matchup, but Tommy wasn’t really himself to open the clay swing and he only found a rhythm towards the end. I would expect a close scoreline in a few of the sets because of Roman’s offense, but Tommy has added an element of consistency and grittiness to his baseline game that should pay dividends here. Safiullin just got grinded down by Juan Manuel Cerundolo last week and there’s a good chance that the same thing happens here. The difference being Tommy’s serve and forehand make him a much more dangerous opponent. Paul in 4.

Cerundolo J.M. vs Davidovich Fokina

Ivashka looked entirely in control of Cerundolo, but he lost a little control of his depth late in the match. Cerundolo doesn’t go big on shots, but he’s willing to take a little off and smooth flat shots into the corners if he’s inside the baseline, and that’s where he was a good chunk of the time. It’s probably the end of his run here, but even one round at a hardcourt major and a couple wins last week changes his career dramatically. He can probably afford to travel a bit more and get into more qualifiers, and if his game continues to translate to hardcourt he could join his brother in the top 100 in another year or two. Here though, ADF is too big of problem. Fokina is extremely consistent, moves the ball nonstop, and has every shot you could want. His service delivery is still a bit too light for him to threaten for the biggest titles, but he’ll be making the second week the majority of the time for the next few years. Cerundolo’s defense is admirable but it will eventually break down here. Fokina in 3.

Thiem vs Shelton

The story here of Thiem winning again on hardcourt is the one I’d like to focus on, but Bublik managed to goof up in the public eye with a poorly timed joke. After he lost to Sinner a few seasons ago he said “you are not a human man, you are 15 years old and you play like this?” Bublik made a comment about being sick of “giving careers back to handicapped people” while he was losing to Thiem. I think it’s important to note a few things here before we dismiss him as a person. One, he’s a bit of an internet person. He has that cringe kinda edgelord forum troll persona at times, and his jokes aren’t always going to land. Often when he got interviewed as a junior phenom, he’d say something wacky and you could tell it was partially because he was nervous and trying to seem cool. He still insists that he just plays for the money, because if you admit you love the sport, the losses hurt more (sorry Nick). He’s a very sarcastic kid, but he isn’t exactly a villain. In a lot of these bad jokes is an expected response. When he said that to Sinner, he was trying to both compliment Sinner’s play, but still get a “I’m passing you by, but you’re still a part of this journey” laugh from Jannik. It’s hard to get a beatdown from a younger player, it agitates the ego. So Bublik tries to laugh it off, but he needs Sinner’s help. It’s hard to lose to a player returning from injury, but it’s nicer if they laugh with you about your looming demise. Bublik is looking for the “it’s okay, man” response with these awkward jabs, and it feels like nerves and frustration are just poisoning his usually clever sense of humor. He’s just not the best loser, and generally the “idc” persona that appears as not trying and fast-playing to the finish line is a sign that it really does hurt them, and it hurts more to possibly try and find out their own ceiling. This is just ego stuff, and I would expect him to grow out of it. So, poorly worded, timed, and not well-received joke? Yes. Villain with poor intentions? Not really.

First round losers aside, this is a great match. Shelton has been struggling a bit lately, but playing doubles with Eubanks seems to have revitalized his mind for the game. He was frantically coming to net against Cachin, but it wasn’t impatient and he didn’t force volleys or slices and try to win points immediately. He put the ball into tough spots, and he watched Pedro’s mechanics as he came to net. The result was a lot of good reads, and when a guy with a huge serve is playing smart at net it’s a really tough equation to solve. Thiem may go with the deep return position here, because a one-handed backhand is usually going to leave itself open for the serve-volley tactic. It’ll be interesting to see how Ben handles the moment, but mostly this comes down to how well he returns serve. We know Shelton has a huge serve, and his forehand is the biggest shot on the court currently. He’d be a favorite to win, but Thiem represents a very steady and plodding level of tennis right now. He’s hitting the ball in the court a lot, and he’s moving well. His own serve isn’t the peak delivery that saw him with the US Open, but he locates it well and can dial up a big one when he needs it. If Shelton is getting into his service games, he can win this in 3-4. If they’re getting to tiebreaker territory, Thiem is really the more steady player right now. I don’t put a lot of stock in the Bublik win because Alexander pretty much forced shots and tantrumed his way through the loss once he began thinking about it. His first serve was absent, and his second serve was his first serve. So yeah, Shelton I think, in 4, or Thiem, in 5.

Karatsev vs Carballes Baena

Rune took a third route I did not consider, which is playing through the injury he’s currently recovering from and losing to Carballes Baena. He called the trainer a few times, but it seems like he wasn’t 100% here and RCB will be very pleased with the result after getting that draw. He now gets an interesting matchup against Aslan Karatsev. They set the Lehecka line short considering he’d just made a finals last week, and they were entirely right as Karatsev won in straight sets. He’ll open as a big favorite here against Roberto, but it could be a tricky matchup. Carballes Baena is a guy you should beat, but you’d prefer if someone else beats him for you. He will rally for days, and his speed will make it tough to hit through him on these courts. I would expect Karatsev to make a few errors here forcing things but overall the match is on his racquet. I’m just not entirely sure how much stock to put in the Lehecka win since he may have been running on fumes, and Carballes is generally a guy who can go uphill very well in a major. Expecting fireworks, and actually if Karatsev wins this one quickly it’ll be pretty scary for other players in this section. Karatsev in 4-5.

Tsitsipas vs Stricker

Tsitsipas will be happy to have gotten past Raonic without much trouble. Up next he gets another match he should win, but I think it will take more sets to get the job done. Stricker was just a bit too solid for Popyrin in the opener. They had some excellent rallies, but Dominic’s mechanics are a bit more solid, so in a long match he’s just able to produce his best tennis more often. Being a lefty, the plot is fairly simple against Tsitsipas. Stay in the normal patterns, and see if Stefanos’ backhand falls apart. It’ll be tough finding breaks of serve, because Tsitsipas is in a decent rhythm, but stranger things have happened. This is a brand new level for Stricker, and I’d expect him to elevate his game for only a section of this match, before basically physical strength becomes the determining factor. Tsitsipas in 4.

Bonzi vs Eubanks

Bonzi has lost most of the year, but picking the US Open to nab a win against Halys was a good choice. The Bonziest choice. Next he gets a guy who has all the crowd support and talent but apparently hasn’t locked in on hardcourt yet. Eubanks got a gift of a first round against Kwon, who hasn’t really been playing any tennis, but he got the job done. 4 sets isn’t ideal, but for a server, it’s not really unexpected that you’ll drop a set here and there. I’m not sure who wins this, because Eubanks has undeperformed the past month (considering his Wimbledon level) and the books have actually priced things in a manner that would indicate that. After a huge run like that, he’s going to draw a lot of investment, so seeing him priced fairly low against most opponents means he’s just not there yet on these slower hardcourts. Still, Bonzi’s win is a fairly new thing. Both these players would be extremely happy to get the third round here, and I give them a pretty even chance. Bonzi will have an edge in the rallies, but getting into them is a big ask. He returned Halys’ serve well, but Quentin has a less pinpoint delivery than Eubanks and tends to bend the ball rather than well, bouncing it over your head. Someone in 5, I kinda think it will be Eubanks.

Droguet vs Mensik

It’s nice when guys show up quietly and put work in. Droguet and Mensik are promising names on the Challenger tour, but they have shown no nerves this past week. Both were excellent in qualifying, and they both pulled off tremendous upsets in round one. Droguet’s was a bigger name, because Musetti is one of the tour’s best, but he wasn’t playing great hardcourt coming in so Titouan’s level will be more on display against Mensik. Mensik beat Barrere in four, and it was some of the smoother and more beautiful hitting. It just doesn’t seem like Mensik misses during baseline rallies, and even though he’s swinging smooth it doesn’t seem like he lacks pace. Between him and Dino Prizmic the tour has some really exceptional players coming up. If Droguet wins this, it’ll have to be with his serving. I think Mensik is a little more composed out there during the rally, and Musetti was fairly passive on his backhand so it let Droguet dictate a bit. Since Droguet is a new commodity, him beating Mensik (which would indicate a whole new level from him) would be an exciting result. For now though, I think Mensik is a bit more reliable in this spot. Mensik in 4.

Varillas vs Fritz

Another match where I think the favorite should win but it won’t be quick. Varillas found his game again in a big moment, which is becoming a theme with him. Once he gets into a rhythm from the baseline, he just doesn’t miss much, and despite these guys being pros, it’s just tough to create when your opponent is hitting hard in the cross-court patterns. He’s already had tremendous matches against Zverev, RBA, and now Kecmanovic so it’s pretty clear that he’s a tough out no matter what level you’re at or what style.

I’m interested to see how patient Fritz is in this match. He’s gotten pretty solid but I’m not sure he’ll want to play long rallies. Luckily, his serve can keep most of the long rallies on Varillas’ serve, so I’m expecting (even though I always think Fritz is a flight risk) for most of these sets to go to the finish line but for Fritz to be the one with a lot of break opportunities. It feels sketchy to say that this is a new Fritz who doesn’t fold up or mope, especially since anytime he faces significant adversity on the court he makes a face at his box like they’re the ones who forced him to play tennis. It’s a very “what do you want me to doooooooo” vibe, which is not very productive and means that the box needs to work more on his headspace during a loss. I’d basically never put a cent on Fritz here against a guy who tries this hard, but if they both play well, Fritz wins in 3-4.

McDonald vs Gojo

Every time Felix hits a shot, I go “that’s it! He woke up! It’s here!” We all want Auger-Aliassime to play his best, but it seems like he’s still figuring it out. There doesn’t seem to be any deviation from plan A, so for now I guess him and his team are somewhat okay with these losses. What does seem evident to me is that he’s under a lot of pressure. He doesn’t look like he’s having fun out, and it’s definitely impacting his tennis. I’d bring in a coach to work on his swing mechanics at this point, and have him play a light schedule for the rest of the year, or perhaps even better, travel without a coach. Let the kid enjoy his time, and let him do what he wants to do rather than trying to plug himself into a professional tennis player Federer style role that he isn’t exactly thriving in.

McDonald gets a good win, and he should get another here. My issue with McDonald is always his proclivity for offense. He is often going for too much in matches where he’s not really in danger. His speed means he can go a bit safer and win also, and I’d like to see him go a bit pushmode some of the time just to give opponents a different speed to look at. Borna Gojo is a tough one here because he’s at his peak. He’s always a great server, but he’s really in-form this week and he’s hitting his forehand well also. When you see a server breaking serve, that’s bad news bears for their opponents. Mackie will have to be able to ride out the early stages of this match to win, because Gojo’s level might drop. My problem with that is how often McDonald seems to play great in the first set then kinda disappear for a while. Gojo is a very live underdog here, but I think he might gas out in rallies eventually, because generally he can’t hang off clay in extended battles. McDonald in 5.

Vesely vs Cerundolo

Vesely almost seems to be the 2018 Kaia Kanepi of the ATP, just playing the majors and dominating enough to stay on tour. Enzo Couacaud came in playing his best tennis and Vesely was still able to beat him. Stamina will be the question mark here for Vesely. Last time he pulled a big upset (Korda at Wimbledon Rd 1), he just wasn’t there in round two, and got straight setted by O’Connell. Add in that Cerundolo is very good at moving the ball and keeps it low, and it’s a tricky spot for Vesely. This reminds me a bit of the Zhang Ruud match. Clearly the challenger’s offense is good enough, and they have experience, but it feels like they’ll need to win quickly or the fluctuations in their level will cost them. Cerundolo in 4.

Djere vs Gaston

Nakashima hype is proving somewhat dangerous, but so is Laslo Djere. He seems a bit harmless against the top players on tour because of his straightforward approach, but he is a big strong dude and he hits the ball haaaaaard. My favorite thing about him is the one expression he has on his face the entire time he plays, it may sound sarcastic but it really pairs well with his consistent play. If you’re grinding out there, you want your opponent to think of the path to the finish line as being extremely long, and a serious-faced opponent hitting hard and to big targets does exactly that. On the other end of the serious spectrum perches Hugo Gaston. Tuning in to one of his matches, I found him sitting casually during a changeover with his legs crossed, looking around at the stadium. No way to tell what the score was, just a casual man sitting casually. His tennis has gotten better each round though, and I’m not sure he can’t win this also. Gaston is going to hit 200 dropshots in a match, but this week his backhand is also creating some sharp angles. He beat Shimabukuro easily, and I honestly wasn’t even sure he would win that so it’s time to seriously consider him.

Djere’s power should make it tougher to hit dropshots off, but that won’t stop Gaston. I’m not sure he has enough offense to really beat Djere, but he will make it entertaining. I don’t see a way for either player to win in straights, and Gaston won their previous meeting in three on clay so he is likely comfortable with Djere’s patterns. I think Gaston might win but I can’t bring myself to type it. Djere in 5.

Zapata Miralles vs Djokovic

Good straight set wins for both players. I didn’t love Djokovic’s comment about Muller, but it did allow him to manufacture a reason to greenlight his dismissal. Saying that he’s attractive, but it’s “not enough” is kinda puzzling, because it’s not like Muller is going around talking about how attractive he is. Still, creating that edge that gives him extra motivation to compete is what Djokovic is tremendous at, and he’s also tremendous at tennis. He was rifling T serves last night. I don’t think I’ve ever seen his service motion look that powerful. He barely missed a shot from the baseline, and he didn’t let up at all. The first two sets took less than an hour. I mean, just scary good. So good that it was almost enjoyable to watch a guy get zipped. Zapata had a good win against Ethan Quinn, but he doesn’t have a big enough serve to bother Novak here, and it looks like this fortnight you’re going to have to serve huge to be competitive. Djokovic in 3.

WTA Singles

Swiatek vs Saville

Well, nobody zips Clervie Ngounoue twice. After a rough first set, she played a bit better and notched two games in the second. A mirror scoreline was ongoing in Swiatek’s opener, as she trounced yet another excellent player. Peterson is really good, but just had no shot. Saville is consistent, but will have a very similar no shot. You need offense to beat Swiatek at this point, and a realy high level of defense just to get the opportunity. Swiatek in 2.

Davis vs Juvan

Cocciaretto had a pretty sizeable lead in the second and a ton of momentum, but Kaja Juvan’s power just gives her the ability to apply pressure in all of her opponent’s service games. The second serve delivery against her always winds up looking hesitant, and that’s a bit of a problem for Lauren Davis. Davis will give it her best, but her serve is not that good. She’ll get the benefit of all the Juvan errors, but this will be a match where holding serve will mean a lot and I really liked how Juvan started and closed out her previous match. I don’t think Juvan will miss often enough to give this up in straight sets, and I do think she has a better chance of holding serve late in a match. Juvan in 3.

Ostapenko vs Avanesyan

Ostapenko hit through one defensive test, and now she gets another. Avanesyan and Cornet played some incredibly fun tennis in the first round, but Avanesyan just seemed a bit more physically durable at the end. She has a way of playing herself into form and I think this is more dangerous for Ostapenko than the -467 pricetag she’s been set at. I don’t see a big difference between Avanesyan’s peak and Paolini’s, and she hits the ball harder as well. Ostapenko could probably get home on a lot of second serves here since she’s an aggressive returner, and I guess the story here is that Avanesyan’s lack of an offensive serve ends up costing her the match. Jelena is still a player that I don’t find reliable because of her temperamental behavior, but Ostapenko in 3.

Wang vs Pera

Kudermetova continues to have bizarre scorelines. She will win 4 games in a row, then lose 4 in a row. Her game isn’t particularly big, but she does go pretty close to the baseline with her groundstrokes so I guess she’s struggling with her range. For now, it’s a solid win for Pera and a chance to play another lefty. Hruncakova almost profited off her lucky loser spot, up a set against Wang, but Wang just kinda had the bigger offense. I think Pera Is probably the pick here, simply because Kudermetova is a higher tier opponent. Sometimes the best prep is afforded to you by the draw. I wouldn’t say either player is particularly crushing worlds at this point, but Pera is a bit more experienced and is having a slightly better season. Pera in 3.

Kvitova vs Wozniacki

Kvitova was down bad in the second set, but managed to turn things around. She’ll have a good chance to showcase her offense here, because Wozniacki hasn’t missed a ball yet. Watching her play Prozorova was a good reminder of how solid her backhand is. She just adjusts it perfectly to keep the ball in the court, and Prozorova’s percentages were just a little too low on serve. The result was she had to force the issue a bit, and unforced errors arrived. The announcers showcased their tennis acumen as usual, stringing together these two sentences back to back. “Wozniacki has run at least a few marathons, so you know she can run for days” followed by “Prozorova doesn’t seem willing to hang in long rallies with Wozniacki, she keeps trying to end the point quickly”. Honestly, if you’re not the bigger hitter, you have to go to smaller targets against a player like Wozniacki, this is not rocket science. Prozorova played fine, and she’s shown a lot of promise this week.

Kvitova should win this, because despite her consistency, Wozniacki is not hitting the ball that hard or serving that great. This is one where Kvitova’s serve is a big weapon but her ability to lean into her returns on the backhand wing should be her focus. We all know the Kvitova unforced errors can come in bunches, but that’s really the only way I see her losing this match. Kvitova in 2-3.

Brady vs Linette

Pretty dominant showings for both these players. Birrell and Sasnovich have been playing well, but they were beaten in straights. It sets up a very lose contest between two good baseliners. Brady’s peak is obviously higher, but she’s just coming back to the tour and a very long match is on the menu here. Her stamina and her ability to maintain clean ballstriking over the course of a few hours will be the big key here, and there’s not a great way to know what the answers to those questions are going on. It feels like Linette is capable of upsets around this tier, and the courts being a little bit slow means that it’ll be tough for Brady to end rallies quickly. If Brady wins this match, I think you have to consider her back near her pre-injury levels more or less. I’m expecting Linette to drag it out though. Linette in 3.

Mertens vs Collins

Mertens held off a very solid challenge from Bjorklund in round one. She’s really doing well in qualifiers over the past few seasons and she seems to be near the top level of tour play for a set. For a young player, that’s great stuff. For now, Mertens moves on to play Danielle Collins, who is showing signs of excellence at her home slam. Collins did not give Linda Fruhvirtova a chance to breathe, and basically beat her into submission. I think it makes her a decent favorite to win against Mertens. Obviously, Elise’s defense and physicality is a cut above Fruhvirtova, but Collins’ best level is a threat to basically any opponent, and since Mertens isn’t the most offensive server in the world, Collins in a good return rhythm is a problem. I don’t buy Collins’ consistency over two sets in the same manner she displayed against Linda, but I think she’ll be a little more dangerous in the long run. Collins in 2-3.

Andreeva vs Gauff

Olivia Gadecki played some great tennis, but Andreeva just snuck past her in the end. Last time Andreeva and Gauff met it was a pretty exciting three-set affair, but this time feels a little different. Andreeva has suffered some losses, and the last two sets in that last meeting felt very uphill for Andreeva in her service games. I worry that despite Gauff’s less than optimal serving stats, she’s still going to be able to dominate her by hitting a bigger ball most of the time. Gauff won a pretty epic clash against Siegemund, but the three set result doesn’t really stand out as a problem because Siegemund played tremendous tennis.

The ending was a bit overshadowed by Gauff getting upset about a time violation warning, and then Siegemund getting upset about the same thing later on, but this seems to be standard. Here’s my unwanted take. All these players are committing time violations, but the real problem for me is that they all go whine to the chair for a minute before playing. When Cilic gets a time violation warning, he looks up for a second, and then begins bouncing the ball again to start his service motion. This is the right play. It is not your time to go and explain yourself, or tell the umpire they’re making you play with sweat on your face, or point out the distance to the towel, or to tell the umpire your opponent is at fault. Just eat it, and continue playing. Not because you aren’t right, or justified, or being slighted, but because it has already happened and there is no changing it. It’s gone, and you’re the only person still clinging to it. Siegemund was absolutely stalling and engaging in gamesmanship, but Gauff was also serving a bit quickly. Matches are going to get spicy when there’s a lot on the line.

On the flipside, saying it’s a good or bad move for Gauff to chirp at the umpire is very results oriented. Maybe it helped her, maybe it didn’t. For me, I think most people aren’t used to shouting for an extended period, and it can wind you a bit. A lot of the lightheadedness of doing standup or giving a public speech is associated with anxiety, but part of it is oxygen deprivation because most of the time you’re not speaking loudly, and rarely for that long. Anyway, the match ended, they shook hands, and we move on. I like Gauff, and her press conferences generally show a maturity and clarity that means she’ll learn from any mistakes she makes. I’m not so sure this mini-tirade was a mistake, but I can tell you that it’s the only time I’ve ever seen her get upset at anyone other than herself on tour.

To circle back, I think Gauff should win this. Her defense is good enough to stop Andreeva, and the younger player is just going to have a very tough time holding serve as this drags on. Gauff in 2-3.

Rybakina vs Tomljanovic

Emotional return win for Tomljanovic. She wasn’t sharp at all, but she hung in there and kept battling until she managed to outlast Udvardy. Up next is an unwinnable match, but it’s likely that she’d lose to anyone in this round so it’s better for her training to get reps against one of the best players on tour. Rybakina in 2.

Kalinskaya vs Cirstea

This should be really close. Both hit the ball huge, both won in straight sets against solid opponents, and both are classic for going to three sets. I think Cirstea’s serving is a bit better than Kalinskaya’s, but she’s at a big disadvantage on the backhand wing. Not entirely sure how this goes down, but Kalinskaya in 3 is what I somewhat expect.

Azarenka vs Zhu

These two just played in Australia, with Azarenka winning in three. I would expect a similar result here, but Zhu is playing a bit better than she was then. She’s just beaten Sherif in two, and the experience could help her a bit here. She’ll also have a bit of support with the NY crowds. Azarenka is definitely better at moving the ball, but Zhu is a similar player and it can be tricky to supply most of the offense for a long time. Azarenka in 3 again.

Miyazaki vs Bencic

Miyazaki is not Japanese as I had said in the last article; she plays for Britain and that’s my fault for rushing through the article. She did, at least, win her match so I didn’t mess up completely. Up next she probably meets a challenge that’s a little too tough. Bencic was pretty clinical in her first round, defeating a talented baseliner in Rakhimova. I think Miyazaki will put up more of a fight because her footwork is more proactive than Rakhimova, but it’s the same problem against Bencic of holding serve. Bencic can score three points in a minute, and she also can hang in in long rallies when she needs to. Bencic in 2 close sets.

Muchova vs Frech

It’s so cool to see Muchova play, and this should be a good one. Frech defeated Navarro in three, and the joy on her face as she won was really heartwarming to watch. Navarro had her moments, but she seems to be a little too reliant on getting to her forehand. It means a lot more running than her opponent, and Frech was a bit stronger at the end. I don’t think Frech can take a set off Muchova, but she’s pretty solid from the baseline so the match will be good stuff. Muchova in 2 sets full of good stuff.

Townsend vs Haddad Maia

Townsend played well in round one, and never really let Gracheva get going. Gracheva seems to have difficulty with power, and the unforced errors flowed. It was cool to see Julian Benneteau in her box though, and that kinda explains some of the beauty in her game. BHM and Sloane Stephens played probably the match of the first round. Sloane really dug in late in the second and it was incredible to see her fired up out there. The full conviction is just not there often enough though, so when she does turn it all the way up, the errors still flow. I think Townsend will have a similar problem with Haddad Maia; her offense is world-class but the ball will keep coming back and she really doesn’t have a great backhand. Should be close, but the serve-volley tactic needs to be on point for Townsend to win, and Bella is a way better returner than Gracheva due to her height and solid backhand. Haddad Maia in 3.

Sorribes Tormo vs Wang

The odds for round one were accurate, Sorribes Tormo had a very tough time with Kalinina despite her slump. It sets up a similar match against a more consistent but less powerful offense. Wang beating Volynets in two is significant because it means she played consistently. For a big hitter to do that means they have half a chance against Tormo. Tormo lets you play. She moves the ball around and defends, but her main plan is for you to force shots from tough positions and make errors. If you’re able to hit clean, you can overcome this. It’s crazy to think Tormo’s run is going to end here, but that’s kinda what I’m wary of. Wang is fresher, and has has pretty reliable ballstriking with time. Expecting a three-setter here. Tentatively, Tormo in three.

Schmiedlova vs Masarova

Masarova is so good. Sakkari came in with all the momentum, but Masarova just keeps hitting the court. When you take a little pace off or leave the ball short, she never hesitates to take aim at your baseline. This match might actually be a bit tougher in some respects, because Schmiedlova isn’t going to go as big while losing as Sakkari will. She’s actually the bigger hitter here so it’ll be interesting to see how Masarova deals with that. In Masarova’s favor is her serving. She really can be effective at times with her first serve and if she can deal with Anna’s pace then she should win in 2. If not, I worry that Schmiedlova will be a bit more physically durable. Masarova in 2 or Schmiedlova in 3.