2023 US Open Men's & Women's Round Two - Thursday Matches 🐢

ATP Singles

Alcaraz vs Harris

Rough night for ticket holders on Ashe, as Dominik Koepfer retired down a set and a break. It’s a good start for Alcaraz, and while he appears to be in tremendous shape, the cramps at Roland Garros occurred this season so less tennis is better for him in the early rounds. This match with Harris is one where I’d be hesitant to get too specific about an outcome. Harris hasn’t been on tour enough recently to really get a sense of how he’ll fare against top competition, but obviously any positive result or close sets represent a good outcome for him. Harris has a pretty good serve and he’s very fit, and since he’s content to hang in rallies and defends well on his forehand he makes a good sparring partner for Alcaraz. A straight sets win against Pella means he’s near his peak, but that peak is going to fall short against Alcaraz because he’s really gotten to a much higher level than the rest of the tour at this point, and has backed this up by turning in fairly reliable performances at the slams. This is probably Alcaraz in 3, but it should be a very fun contest because of how high Harris’ physical ability and talent extend.

Van De Zandschulp vs Evans

Botic wins a match! Van De Zandschulp will take any result at this point in the season, so while a retirement from Thompson is a bit sad, it’s also a big boost. He’ll have a similar test in the second round, playing another very fast and tenacious guy who technically doesn’t have the game to beat him, but enters as a pretty solid favorite.

Dan Evans was really good in round one, and it was a business-like performance where he kept the pressure on Galan and never let the crowd get involved. The constant pressure and motivated footwork made Galan play a bit faster than he wanted to and the results were errors and forced rushes to the net which Evans is pretty solid at picking off since he has a pretty decent lob and/or down the line combo on his backhand. The gameplan for Evans against Botic needs to be the same; Botic is struggling for confidence on his swings, and if he starts to miss a few he really can remain in that funk. The problem for Evans is that he doesn’t have to sort of dominant game that will keep Van De Zandschulp from plying his craft. He has a slice backhand, and he doesn’t have the hugest serve. Evans is a guy who wins when he’s in form, but it’s rarely a blowout. He should be sharper, but Botic has a higher ceiling and the only thing making him play poorly is hesitancy, so this could get close. Evans in 4-5.

Fils vs Arnaldi

Arthur Fils is playing some really nice tennis this week. Tallon Griekspoor is a really tough opponent but Fils was able to create more offense in this matchup. Nishioka mentioned before the tournament that he thought these conditions were good for Fils so I’d expect him to carry his level into this match with Arnaldi. He’s not always the most dominant player with the shot, but I did like the way Fils fully commits to using the spin on his forehand to create short angles cross-court. It’s a higher risk shot but like the backhand down the line, it’s a big key shot into being able to win at the highest level. Lehecka hits it well when he’s at his best, Djokovic does, Federer did, etc.

A five set win against Griekspoor is a great sign of Fils’ level, but even better than a big win is a quick retirement. Arnaldi only had to play a single set of tennis against Kubler, and he was playing fine during that period. He’ll be much fresher than Fils here, but I think he’s a slight underdog in terms of his best level. Arnaldi will have the better backhand, and perhaps he’s a bit more consistent than Fils. Fils has a bigger serve and his forehand is more versatile. I’m expecting another close match like the Griekspoor battle, especially since Arnaldi and him played 3 in Madrid earlier this year (Arnaldi won). Based off their recent wins, it feels like Fils is the better player having beaten Zhang and Griekspoor, but their losses are what make me hesitant to announce him as a dominant player in this matchup. Fils has lost to Nakashima and Humbert, who play right around Arnaldi’s level. I can’t elect Arnaldi president of court 12 or wherever they’re playing, because he just lost to Moutet.

It’s easy to have a letdown after a big win, so I’m not sure who gets this done. I think Arnaldi’s a great player, but his performance at this stage is a bit unknown. Fils in 5.

Hsu vs Norrie

Kokkinakis is an exciting prospect, but it seems like he’ll remain as that for the rest of his career. Whether it’s injuries or lack of hustle, he just doesn’t seem to be able to beat guys who take a more professional approach to the game. Kokkinakis is very willing to go huge on his forehand, but he seemed shocked when Hsu was willing to focus on his own mechanics and guide the ball to the open court. Kokkinakis has a great serve, but he seemed handcuffed when Hsu elected to block the ball back into the court and play defense. It just was a very impatient performance by Thanasi, but at the same time Hsu played incredible. His hitting is very clean right now and he’s moving well. It’s the exact type of player who I suspect could never beat Norrie at his best, but who winds up in a deciding set with him when he’s at his worst.

Norrie put on a very Hsu-like clinic in dispatching the powerful offense of Shevchenko. There were highlights of course, but a slightly slower hardcourt is a great bonus for Norrie. This match is just about Hsu’s patience. He does hit big enough with time to move Norrie off the court, but it takes a handful of shots to really score a point so he’ll want to work multiple shots and keep in mind that it’s a process. A more Max Holloway approach to the knockout. Hsu is playing well, but it’s hard for a baseliner to beat a better baseliner, and Norrie will be comfortable here. Norrie in 3-4.

Zverev vs Altmaier

Zverev is plodding along, and the injury seems to have made him more intent on winning. Beating Vukic in 3 is a really good sign considering he used to generally drop the first set to good challengers at majors, and he’ll have an interesting second round against a player he should have an edge against. Zverev’s size and backhand just make him a difficult puzzle for a smaller player. Altmaier has a great serve, and is pretty good from the baseline also. Against guys in his weight class, he looks great. Against Zverev though, I think he will have to force the issue a little to score points. Sure, Alex still gives you the free points once in a while when he clips the tape with a forehand or double faults, but at home we aren’t calculating the energy spent engaging in rallies with him. The doubles are a known factor, but it doesn’t make the serves he lands in any easier to return.

It’s an uphill battle so I think only the best Altmaier (the one we saw against Jannik Sinner at Roland Garros) has a chance here. I really never like the one-hander against the two-handed backhand if it’s solid, and Zverev beat Altmaier in straights at the Australian Open last year. Expecting a fun but somewhat inevitable contest. Altmaier is a different and more evolved offense this year, but I still don’t think he’s physically able to crack this puzzle. Zverev in 4.

Murray vs Dimitrov

I find that when I say something negative about a beloved legend, people tend not to enjoy it. So I would never indicate that Andy Murray is a grade A bitch. I would never point out his persistent whining and crying on the court, or the poor way he treats his box. That would be uncouth, and I am super couth. I just can’t fathom announcers chuckle when he behaves like that, but Gauff cleanly but animatedly shouts at an umpire and the announcers go “oh dear”. Have we given up on Andy? As his third career wanes, perhaps he will find the perspective to realize that this is a freeroll. All of this tennis is a gift, and he’s already a role model so he might want to consider transitioning more into the role in all facets of his public life. There is definitely footage of me acting like a grade A bitch out there on the internet as well, so maybe it bothers me because it hits home.

Murray complaints aside, he is playing the best tennis he has since his hip surgery. He was dominant against Moutet, and Corentin’s switch to a one-handed backhand came at a poor time to try to beat Murray. Andy basically hit the ball to Moutet’s backhand and rushed the net over and over. When he didn’t rush, he faked rushes which is extremely distracting. He put pressure on all of Moutet’s service games, and the result was a straight set win and a renewed “Can Murray make the second week of a major?” storyline. Given their levels in the opening round, Murray should trounce Dimitrov here. Grigor was just terrible against Molcan. He missed routine balls and seemed to ask his box why it had happened. He double faulted on big points. Molcan fell on the floor on a big point and Dimitrov hit the next shot into the bottom of the net. His slice was poor, and his accuracy was missing. If Molcan had not started cramping, he would have beaten him fairly easily, and if I’m being honest Molcan was not really playing that great.

If Dimitrov can turn around after that and beat a rock-solid defender like Murray who has excellent tactics, I’ll be very confused. I’m open to it, but Dimitrov has pretty much folded in big spots so consistently that I’m willing to eat an outlier if it happens. I don’t think Murray will have much to yell at his box about here, but even the bad Dimitrov still has a huge serve and great athleticism, so it should be much closer than the Moutet match. Murray in 4. Great champion, great guy, 1 bad habit left to drop.

Etcheverry vs Wawrinka

This should be extremely good. Otto Virtanen is way better than I thought. The odds for him were very close in this match, and I know he’s capable of winning Challengers and he played well in qualifying, but I didn’t realize how dangerous his forehand is. We’re getting an influx of guys on tour who are tall enough to be servebots but have the rest of the game and move well also. Idk what to call them but they seem like professional tennis players and it is a joy to watch them play. Virtanen and Etcheverry hit the fuzz off the ball for 4 and a half hours and I swear by the end Etcheverry’s face looked skinnier than at the start.

If you’re Wawrinka, that 5 setter was a good and bad thing. Good because who doesn’t want a fatigued opponent, but bad because Etcheverry had been playing somewhat poorly and now he’s in form. Him, Varillas, and a lot of the claycourt guys can get into a rhythm where they just don’t miss, and since Tomas is a tall guy he presents a defensive problem since he can hit big serves. Speaking of big serves, Wawrinka managed to avoid intrigue and drama in the scoreline of his first round for once. Nishioka came in struggling and left in the same form. He beats players by keeping rallies alive and grinding them down, but lately he is just making simple errors and it feels like his forehand footwork is a little bit hesitant. This is leading to him trying to create shape and pace and the net is defeating him. In his defense, Wawrinka is crushing his serve right now and seems pretty motivated. I like his chances if he can win the first against Etcheverry, but in a long match it can be really tough to beat Etcheverry since it requires so many extended rallies.

I think Wawrinka is fresh enough to get this done. Wawrinka in 3-4.

Sonego vs Sinner

Sonego played round one like he was late for a flight. Moreno De Alboran really never was ahead in the scoreline, and Sonego just rushed the net whenever he could and hit every ball as hard as he could from the baseline. It’s the type of tennis that he’ll need to stick with against Jannik Sinner, who is a huge favorite in baseline rallies against Sonego because of the disparity in their backhands. This is Berrettini vs the big 3, in the sense that Sonego has a puncher’s chance to win sets, but over time it feels like the errors on his backhand are going to become a theme on his mind. Sinner also is playing well, after beating Hanfmann in a very quick three set match. I could see Sonego winning a set or making it to a tiebreak, but I think this is Sinner in 3-4.

Medvedev vs O’Connell

This guy O’Connell. Happy for him, but we need to establish some sort of hand signal when he’s going to play well. His baseline game is always solid, but he served really well in round one. Medvedev had a pretty easy first round with Attila Balasz, who really is only good for an upset win here and there at the 250 clay level, and was mostly here to make good use of a Protected Ranking. Medvedev and O’Connell played a close match in Doha this year, so this could be entertaining, but Medvedev is one of the favorites to win this title, so it would be extremely odd if he lost. Medvedev in 3-4.

Meligeni Alves vs Baez

Duckworth and Meligeni Alves was extremely close. It feels like a five setter but Duckworth managed to make errors on some of the biggest points, so it ended in three. Meligeni won’t hate his chances in this next round against Baez, because he has a great service delivery and is very solid from the baseline. His problem here is that his current opponent, Sebastian Baez, is playing at his peak. Baez has a very wide range of ability on hardcourt, and at his mid levels he could lose this match. Last round he beat Coric though, and last week he won a title in convincing fashion in Winston-Salem. The Baez Medvedev clash is going to be absolutely incredible, and I think Baez will be a little too adept during rallies here for Meligeni Alves to win. M.A. also struggled to hold serve in the third set against Duckworth, so there are questions about how his legs will hold up here. Baez in 3-4.

Jarry vs Michelsen

Jarry put on a good performance against Van Assche. Luca really applied pressure and was up a break a handful of times, but overall Jarry’s serve just lets him remain fresh for the return games, and since he takes huge cuts at the ball it applies a lot of pressure to the usual “just keep it in and run the big guy around” strategy that most baseliners utilize against servebots. It sets up a really interesting clash that has more ramifications for Michelsen scouts than anyone else. So far, Michelsen has delivered every time he’s a favorite. He beat ARV in 3, and it was a really solid serving performance. He’s able to hit the wide serve from the deuce side over and over, and it’ll be a good weapon to have against a tall opponent. I think he’s a little more composed from the baseline than Jarry, but he doesn’t hit as big as often. Michelsen’s game is so complete that I think him having a big serve makes him a little more dangerous than Van Assche. I think Van Assche could beat him, but I’m not sure Jarry can defend the same way and he ran a lot in the LVA match. Michelsen in 5.

Wu vs De Minaur

Great fight from Wu to win that first round against Lajovic. There is no reward here, because he plays De Minaur in the second round. Normally that is a bad situation, but this year Alex has shown the ability to beat some guys ranked above him, and part of that improvement is in his physical strength. Idk if it has any basis in science, because turtles cannot access books, but it feels like there’s a bit of extra strength that dudes get as they get a bit past their early 20s that can really help them take bigger cuts at the ball. Somebody science me up real quick if that’s true or makes sense.

Wu isn’t completely out of luck against De Minaur, because his backhand is a much better shot than Alex’s, and he pushes the pace and hugs the baseline in a very similar manner than De Minaur. If I watched these two play in isolated situations and then you asked me who would win, I’d point to Wu. The tour has provided us with a lot of evidence to the contrary though, and one of the hallmarks of ADM’s career has been beating guys ranked below him fairly reliably. Still, the -300ish pricetag for De Minaur backs up my worries that Wu will be competitive, so I’d be hesitant to etch Alex’s name into the third round. Wu doesn’t have a ton of matchplay recently, so going the distance may be the deciding factor here. De Minaur in 4-5.

Mmoh vs Isner

Isner is retiring, but not quite yet. Diaz Acosta was never able to get involved in the match, and he struggled to figure out the right game plan against Isner. I watched him go huge on a second serve on a break point, and for a lefty who can serve Isner’s backhand in that situation, it just didn’t make sense. Never getting returns in play can be tilting though, and in Diaz Acosta’s defense Isner seemed to be hitting some very good backhands in this match. When he’s solid he’s pretty frustrating to play, and it seems like he is playing decent here. Surprisingly, Mmoh and him have never played, so this is Mmoh’s one opportunity to take the lead in the h2h. I think he can, because honestly this is the best season he’s ever had, and he just played some solid tennis to beat Khachanov.

The fear with Isner is always the same, he’s such a good server that you aren’t going to see many break points. If he’s tired, it doesn’t really impact his serve, but his returning can go. Mmoh isn’t exactly serving aces, but he is moving the ball well and he’s solid from the baseline this month, so I think he can just edge out John in a long match. Expecting a big effort from Isner honestly in his retirement match, but Mmoh in 4.

Draper vs Hurkacz

Jack Draper completed a match. That’s a win in itself. He’s going to wind up with one of the best win percentages on tour if you discounts retirements, because when he’s healthy he beats pretty much everyone he plays. His second round is against Hubert Hurkacz, who just gave everyone a good bit of old fashioned Hurkacz fun by going five sets with Huesler. Honestly, I didn’t think Hurkacz played that bad. Huesler ran his offense efficiently, and Hurkacz’s lateral movement just isn’t good enough to shut that down. He was lucky to win, but a big server like him in a fifth set is a tough problem to solve in a major.

When I started writing this, I fully intended to announce that Draper would win, but I’m not completely convinced that he will return serve automatically. He’s a more explosive server than Huesler and has more big-match experience against top players, but Hurkacz is just a way better version of Isner in terms of offensive presence, and giving Draper credit for solving that is tricky. I will say that Hurkacz can throw in some poor games. He can make errors, and Draper’s delivery is good enough to get him to tiebreakers. This will come down to which player plays the big points better, which is not saying much because that’s most tennis matches. I’m willing to guess that Hurkacz will continue to struggle, and even though he’s a flight risky, Draper is less mentally burnt out by the tour this year so he should be sharp here and hungry. Draper in 4.

Berrettini vs Rinderknech

Allez! I’m actually not sure what dictates Diego going into slumps, but he reverted back to his early 2023 form in this match. Rinderknech serves well, and he was aggressive with his forehand, but mostly Schwartzman just hit the net a lot and struggled to land first serves. It was a gift of a draw for Rinderknech, and this next round will be his first big test. Berrettini’s tearful loss to Sonego feels a long way away, and he basically had no major issues against Humbert. His backhand remains a weak shot, but his serve and forehand are good enough that it doesn’t matter until he reaches a top ten opponent. The ⅗ format basically gives him time to trade sets as well if there is an issue, and despite his legs appearing to be made of freshly baked bread, his serve seems to be reliable in a marathon match. Since Rinderknech has a good serve, I could see this going to four, but it’s hard to see anyone other than Berrettini winning it. Berrettinin in 3-4.

Monfils vs Rublev

Monfils and Taro Daniel odds were pretty close, and it was evident why. Daniel won the first, and had good chances throughout the match. Monfils is willing to use his speed to win rallies at times, and Daniel has excellent patient and good technique so he’s able to work the point slowly and wind up in good spots. The Monfils win never really felt in a huge amount of danger, even after Taro won the first set, but it was really difficult for him to pull away. Unfortunately for him, Daniel made a few mistakes in the fourth set tiebreaker, and Monfils came up with some big shots, so this sets up a really fun clash. A few weeks ago, I probably would have picked Monfils in this match. He was serving well, and landing his forehand an awful lot. It isn’t that he’s a different guy here, but Gael has played a lot of tennis and I’m not sure if he has the focus level left to outcompete Rublev.

Rublev had a really good warmup match in round one, playing Cazaux as a lucky loser. Cazaux is serving great and really has improved this year. He still was not able to win a set. Rublev was back to near his old self, and I think that Monfils is a good opponent for him to really get played into form. Monfils can serve better than Rublev, but Daniel was able to get into rallies, and Rublev is going to blast away. For once, I don’t think Monfils’ defense is a huge plus here. Sure, Rublev can implode and he’s had some rough patches this year. On the flipside though, he’s not exactly mad if the ball keeps coming back as long as he’s in control. I think over time he will wear down Monfils’ depth, and eventually he should get it done. Rublev in 4-5.

WTA Singles

Wang vs Boulter

Yafan Wang has been running through her opponents for the past few weeks. Even when she was on tour a few seasons ago, she never played this well. It’s been really consistent hitting from the baseline and exceptional angles on her forehand cross-court that have carried her through. Caroline Garcia wasn’t in her best form, but beating her in straights as a challenger is a huge win. Up next is a tough test than Garcia in some ways. Katie Boulter is at a slightly lower tier in terms of ceiling, but she’s playing at her own personal peak. She’s pretty stable from the baseline on defense, which is exactly what you need against Wang. A straight set win against Parry is good stuff, and Boulter will be the less consistent player here but she can serve well at times. I think she has the more creative offense, but at this point it’s going to take something significant to stop Wang. Wang in 3.

Stearns vs Tauson

Good to see Stearns getting back into the win column, and she’s joined by another young phenom who has struggled a little bit with her consistency. Clara Tauson has been struggling with injury issues and fatigue issues in long matches, but she managed to hold off Anastasia Potapova in thrilling fashion. The big reason she won was her serving. She only notched 3 aces, but she was able to really get some quick holds at times and for a player whose stamina is questionable, this is big. Stearns has had a little trouble with big hitters so far, so I think Tauson represents a tough problem in the early stages of this match. Peyton is really a complete player, but she’s kinda smol and this means she will probably have to look to outlast Tauson. It is possible that Tauson will not be 100% by the end of a three-setter here, so this is a tough spot to call.

Tauson will have an easier time holding serve, but she’s less durable in long rallies. Potapova is better than Stearns, but hometown advantage is a thing and Potapova was returning from injury in this event so going the distance wasn’t a guarantee. Tricky spot, Tauson in 2 or Stearns in 3.

Alexandrova vs Tsurenko

Honestly, I wasn’t sure why Alexandrova was only -160 here, but a quick look at the h2h reveals that she has never won a match against Tsurenko. Worse still, she’s never even won a set. Those matches took place in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 also so it’s kinda comprehensive. Luckily for Alexandrova, those matches have been relatively close. She’s lost a lot of overtime sets, and she’s at her best currently. Tsurenko won her first round, but Jacquemot was in pole position for a good chunk of it. She struggled with a blister on her foot, and I’m not really sure that Tsurenko was the better player. Lesia is really consistent, and she’ll know that solid defending beats Alexandrova, but Alexandrova just hit through Fernandez and this is probably her best shot to beat Tsurenko. I have her winning at least a set, but the h2h is the kind of data that means tuning in is much better than predicting. Alexandrova in 3.

Trevisan vs Vondrousova

Only Trevisan can miss a huge volley on a big point, look at her box, and smile. Her fight is refreshing, and it was a hard-fought win against Putintseva where she really never looked like she was going to win. Even in the tiebreaker in the third she started out down a few minibreaks, but she was the one going for offensive shots more often and once they started landing Putintseva was frozen. Up next is the end of the road at the hands of Vondrousova. Vondrousova just beat a bigger hitting defensive baseliner in Na Lae-Han, and she did it fairly easily. I know the WTA isn’t famous for consistency, but Vondrousova could go back to back here. Vondrousova in Von2souva.

Samsonova vs Korpatsch

If you’ve ever been a pirate who’s accidentally awoken a sea monster, you know exactly how Begu felt in round one. Korpatsch was all over the place, and she swung full at every ball that came to her. I have no idea where she gets the energy, but it is lovely to see her play at this level. I actually think it gives her a chance against Samsonova, but I’m probably the only one who thinks so. Samsonova is playing some great tennis lately, and usually competes in the higher tiers. Even when she’s in a slump, her matches against the big names are usually considered a possibility. Here she has a big edge in serving, and in the rally she should be okay. Since she has bouts of errors though, I think there will be a section of this match where Korpatsch does well. She’s just too consistent and her last two matches are a drubbing of Begu (who may have been somewhat inactive) and a three setter with Andreeva (who’s regarded as the next big thing on tour). Samsonova in 2 close or 3 sets.

Keys vs Wickmayer

Keys served great in round one, but Rus really isn’t playing well this year in the big moments. She’s having trouble with her range, and she didn’t put up much of a fight. I don’t think Wickmayer is such a huge puzzle, but her offense is very efficient and she has a pretty good serving game. It’ll be a good test of Keys’ defense early in the tournament, so if she gets this done in two I’ll probably give her a good chance against Samsonova. Keys is just not very reliable because when she loses her range, she loses it for a long time. She doesn’t seem to back off her approach to offensive tennis, and that means similar to Krejcikova yesterday, she’s more likely to lose a match that she doesn’t need to if she really digs in and accepts that plan A is not available. Should be some skilled tennis here. Keys in 2-3 I guess.

Svitolina vs Pavlyuchenkova

If Pavs was a bit rusty, that is no longer the case. Her and Crawley had some absurdly long rallies. I tried count one but tbh I do not know numbers that big. It really was impressive to see her apply pressure though, and it was good prep for her next match, where she’ll face another very solid baseliner. The difference with Svitolina though is that she hits a bit bigger, and her serve is much heavier and better located than Crawley’s. These two have traded wins a few times during their career, but Svitolina looks to be the sharper player currently. I think in terms of consistency the equation will be reversed here. Pavlyuchenkova is more than capable of playing a top player and battling even, but it’ll be hard for her to get out of these rallies once she’s in them, the same as it was difficult for Fiona to find winners against her. Should be a quality match, but Svitolina in 2.

Tig vs Pegula

Rebecca Marino did her best, but she doesn’t really look completely fit to play tennis right now. Tig is really just a defensive test, but to her credit she recognized the situation and kept Marino moving. No real reward here, as Pegula is a few levels above her. Pegula in 2.

Jabeur vs Noskova

Great luck for Noskova, but a sad situation for Jabeur. She seemed to have nausea and fatigue issues against Osorio, and was lucky that her serve and forehand allowed her to squeak by. I partially expect a withdrawal here, as we’ve seen a few people in the past week crash out of the tournament with some sort of flu/bug/stomach issues. Eubanks seemed sick today, Thiem had to withdraw, and a handful of people have just seemed unable to push. The NY heat is tough, but these are relatively cool conditions for pro tennis players so it seems like there’s something going around.

Noskova was priced closer than I expected to Brengle, but she won fairly convincingly. I think this is a big moment for her, but even if Jabeur was at her best Linda’s offense is still good enough to make this close. She hits very flat which is perfect for these courts and her ceiling is high even if her consistency is low, so she has a good chance here. Her level can drop week to week, but tends not to match by match. Expecting the Jabeur struggles to somewhat continue. Noskova in 3.

Martic vs Bouzkova

Ashlyn Krueger is basically Sabalenka in the early years. She hits the ball bigger than everyone on tour, but every third or fourth ball is an error, and the scoreboard pressure still seems to get to her. That makes Bouzkova a really tough opponent, because Marie basically focuses on putting as many shots back in the other rectangle as is humanly possible, and when she misses, the look she gets from her box seems to be “you should have gotten that”, to which she somehow nods, and then does it.

Martic will appreciate the time and control that Bouzkova generally grants her opponents. She prefers to play behind her forehand, and her lateral movement is a bit slow so time is a great thing. She’s playing well recently, and just beat Tatjana Maria in straight sets. I’m not sure how much stock I’m putting in this win though, because she has always fared well against Maria. Bouskova and Martic have one previous meeting, and Bouzkova won in straight sets in Mexico. I am somewhat expecting the same result here. Bouzkova is a really solid competitor, and I think it will take a lot of Martic to hit through her. Given Martic’s recent streak, I wouldn’t be surprised if this went three, but I think Bouzkova is a good pick in these conditions. Bouzkova in 3.

Zheng vs Kanepi

If you blinked, you missed Zheng’s match with Podoroska. She’s been quiet this year, but these are good conditions for her since she has more time to prepare her big swings, and an easy first round is exactly what a young player needs to get going. Now she has another perfect prep, a veteran who plays a similar style but is a little bit slower and less consistent than you. Draws are extremely important in professional racquetsports, and this is a good one for Zheng. Kanepi hits big and can beat the bad Zheng, but it’s likely that Zheng is able to navigate this because she’s unlikely to get served out and she’s more technically sound on both wings with similar. Zheng in 2-3.

Lys vs Bronzetti

Great win for Lys as her run of dominant play continues. Win of the day for Bronzetti, who upended Krejcikova in two very close sets. These two traded 9 breaks of serve in the match, and honestly Bronzetti was just more mentally strong here. She’s willing to hit the ball in the court and defend, and she relies on her stability and backhand to basically make it clear that her opponent has to come up with something big. Krejcikova had moments of brilliance, but she just made too many unforced errors in this match. In the second set Bronzetti was very frustrated and thought about smashing her racquet, but Krejcikova never really went to a more safe approach, and she continues to look for her best form to come back at the expense of her record. She’s better than Bronzetti overall, but it would take her entering push-mode in order to get across the finish line in her current state. It wouldn’t really hurt especially considering that the best path back into form is to get a lot of matches in.

Lys is a good shout to beat Bronzetti here. It’ll take a lot of doing, but she’s actually in much better form than Krejcikova, even if her game is objectively smaller. I think she moves the ball better and she’ll want to focus on Lucia’s forehand since her backhand is extremely solid. Should be a long match, but I am leaning towards Lys in 3.

Kasatkina vs Kenin

I am very impressed that Kasatkina made it past Alycia Parks. Parks was ripping the first ball she got a swing at, and landing a great percentage of her offensive attempts. The crowd was extremely energetic, and there were people chanting “whose house” which is about as cliched as that UnderArmour football commercial, but also must be fairly intimidating. It really looked like Parks would win this one but Kasatkina just kept putting the ball in play. When the tide turned late in the third, Parks seemed to run out of shots but it was a good look at how well she can play, and probably the most exciting match of the first round. For Parks, it’s a tough loss, but her swings and service motion need no work, it’s just a matter of experience that will allow her to play her best game throughout the course of a match. She’s going to be very good.

No rest from the American crowds for Kasatkina, as she faces Sofia Kenin in round two. Kenin was down an early break against Bogdan, but managed to get through in straight sets. I think the pressure is off her at this event, but she’s played enough decent tennis this year to have a chance against Kasatkina. There is no chance she wins if she makes unforced errors, but her backhand gives her a good chance to get good court position because Kasatkina’s backhand is mostly just a defensive tool. I don’t like Kenin in the forehand exchanges here, because Kasatkina hits the ball soft but her technique is infinitely repeatable from most locations inside the stadium.

Since Parks redlined and got a set, I think Kenin can do something similar. Her offense is nowhere near as big as Parks’, but she’s more comfortable moving the ball without trying to end the rally. This is Kenin’s best chance and conditions to beat Darya. She lost in straight sets in 2022, but she won their earlier meetings (when she was at her best) in three so this should be close. Kasatkina to outlast her is my expectation, Kasatkina in Kasat3na.

Minnen vs Vickery

Excellent play from Minnen sees what was probably Venus Williams’ final US Open come to an end. I say probably, because Venus has shown some great tennis recently and still seems to want to play. Minnen will play another talented American player in Vickery, who won a tremendous match against Donna Vekic. Vickery isn’t the most offensive player, but it seems like she can get into a rhythm (similar to Varillas or Davis) and just doesn’t miss the court for significant periods of time. This makes her a tough opponent for Greetje, who is one of the better servers on tour but struggles with consistency in extended rallies. I actually think this will go the same way as the Vekic match, with Minnen winning the first set and then Vickery gradually starting to wear her down in the second. Vickery in 3.

Pliskova vs Burel

There were some tense service games early in the match, but Pliskova managed to beat Ruse in straight sets. Next is a match that she’s supposed to win in straight sets, but Burel is playing some really solid tennis right now. Clara got a big boost from the draw in this one, getting Dolehide in the first round. Dolehide had been playing some good tennis, but she just struggled to keep her forehand in once she got down in the scoreline. She was able to break back a number of times, but Burel’s level doesn’t deviate when she’s playing well. It means that Pliskova faces what tends to unseat her a bit, which is a player who can keep her in long rallies. I’d give Burel a bigger chance here in the opening round, but the number of times Dolehide was able to break her serve make me think Pliskova is going to be a game or two better than her in this match simply because she can get some easy holds from her serve. Pliskova in 2.

Burrage vs Sabalenka

Burrage was in the stands earlier today watching Miyazaki, and I really like that move. These players are around tennis all the time, but to be a fan and to support a friend really makes the sport look more like a community. She had a struggling Blinkova in round one, and made quick work of that. Winning in similarly quick fashion was Sabelenka, who didn’t have a lot of trouble with clay-courter Maryna Zanevska. Burrage is a likely candidate to get one of Sabalenka’s bad sets, but Aryna hasn’t been giving these out this season. She’s motivated, and if she’s keeping the ball in the court and serving well, it’s really hard to win a set against her. Burrage is one to watch but this is a tough round two. Sabalenka in two.