2023 US Open Men's & Women's Round Three - Friday Matches 🐢

ATP Singles

Zhang vs Hijikata

Two very welcome surprises here into the third round. Zhang got his first top ten win of his career, a hard-fought battle against Ruud that took 3 hours and 21 minutes, and according to Ruud, took about 3 minutes longer than it should have. The issue in this one was momentum. Zhang managed to win the first set and suddenly Ruud’s conservative play wasn’t a secure path to victory anymore. It’s fine to outlast your opponent, but Zhang was the bigger hitter on both wings early in the match. After Ruud got a lucky break late in the second set, momentum shifted his way, but he was broken early in the third and gave up another later on. Once Zhang had the front foot in this one, he swung freely and Zhizhen swinging freely looks like one of the best tennis players you’ve ever seen.

Casper managed to level things in the 4th set, and the 6-0 scoreline made it seem like perhaps Zhang had run out of gas. An off-court break ensued for Zhang, and when he came back he seemed more fired up than he was in the first set. After breaking to 15 to start the fifth, Casper let the moment get to him. He went after the umpire for allowing Zhang to allegedly take more than the 3 minutes allotted for a bathroom break (Zhang took 6:28 officially to return) and despite him possibly being justified in his complaints, it just looked like he was grasping at straws in the moment. Zhang followed up his break with a love hold, and the match was basically over, with Zhang breaking again and closing out.

This match really exposed deficiencies in Ruud’s backhand. Zhang was able to take full swings at the ball in the backhand exchanges without missing, and Ruud was left trying to infuse height or depth to no avail. He shanked a number of shots and just generally was outhit on that wing. He did try to slice a number of shots to maintain court position, but this shot floated a bit and let Zhang get inside the baseline too often. Ruud has made improvements on that side in the past few seasons but it appears the job is not done. His serve also didn’t seem to give Zhang much trouble at all, but if I’m being honest Zhang would have outserved most players in the tournament here. He has a huge delivery and was hitting his first serve faster in the 5th set than in any other stage of the match.

The puzzle here is that after a dominating performance against Ruud, Zhang is listed at only -154 against Hijikata. In a vacuum, or in the first round, I’d agree with this price. In this situation, it’s a slight indication that Zhang will not have an easy match here. Fucsovics didn’t look great against Hijikata at all, but Rinky beat him from the baseline in every set and that shows a very solid level. Hijikata has been making progress all season, and traditionally Zhang is not at his best on hardcourt. After a very public match in which he beat a huge name in tennis like Casper Ruud though, the books could likely balance money at -170 and likely could go up to -190 before risking exposure on Hijikata’s side, so this price being held is a nod to Hijikata being competitive. Luckily, there’s some data on this matchup already. These two met in Phoenix at a Challenger event, and Zhang won in a very close 3-setter. Both served about 53% first serves in, and both saved ~65% of their break points.

It’ll sound a little weird since Ruud has made the finals of a hardcourt major, but Hijikata might be a little sharper on this surface than him. Ruud went with a very singular approach to the match, trying to outlast Zhang and work to get forehands. Hijikata moves the ball a lot better and his backhand might be a bit better in this case. He’s also serving well. Overall, I’m guessing a big chunk of the additional respect shown to Hijikata is because of the perceived fatigue that Zhang will have after swinging so huge for 3.5 hours, while Hijikata was off the court in just under 2 hours. There is also a phenomena on tour that might be more coincidental than corollary where players tend to lose the next match after a huge name win. I suspect that’s just a conspiracy for the most part though because, of course you’re more likely to lose in the next round of a tournament. Conceptually, every subsequent round should be tougher.

It just doesn’t line up for me that Zhang served so huge and hit Ruud off the court and now he’s expected to revert back to his old level, but this is why tennis is so exciting. This is a matchup that most wouldn’t tune in for in the first round, but here it’s not only guaranteed to produce some amazing tennis, it also has big implications for this tournament and for both of these players’ careers. I am willing to consider that two five setters in a row is a really tough thing to come back from, and Hijikata is at a good level and played him close earlier this year. Leaning into the small upset here, but it’s hard to see Zhang going down without a fight. Hijikata in 5.

Mannarino vs Tiafoe

Interesting matchup here. These two haven’t actually played since 2018, which was a 4 set win for Tiafoe at the US Open that likely meant a lot to him. This year the situation is a bit different. Tiafoe is breezing through the early rounds, and last year he was a few points away from possibly winning this tournament. He had a tough second round potentially, but Sebastian Ofner looked like he caught whatever is going around at this tournament. The number of players that have called the trainer and pointed at their stomach or indicated nausea is pretty wild, and after Eubanks offered to forfeit the 5-5 game to go use the bathroom, it seems like the effects of the malady are pretty difficult to play through. Despite Ofner looking a bit queasy, Tiafoe really never gave him a chance. He’s suddenly playing great tennis after a mundane couple weeks, and this is a winnable match.

Mannarino has been taking care of some tour hopefuls so far this week, and after a tough battle with Watanuki he got a bit of a reprieve in round two as Marozsan didn’t look fully committed to trying to make a comeback. It means Mannarino will be fresh for this which is important because his only real path to victory is to drag this match into deep waters. Tiafoe is serving too well to really expect to break often, but he has thrown in the occasional error-strewn game and Mannarino tends to get into a really good rhythm late in the 2nd and in the 3rd sets. Being a lefty who hits flat is great for these conditions, but Tiafoe has the speed and stamina to defend against this, and since his first rounds have gone so smoothly, there’s not a lot of mental fatigue there. This should be over in 4 sets. Tiafoe in 4.

Paul vs Davidovich Fokina

What is this nonsense. My two picks to go on a deep run playing each other in the third round? Tommy Paul saved a lot of people’s US Open brackets in round two with a surprising 5 set comeback win. The surprising part I suppose was Roman Safiullin’s level. Suddenly, his forehand was tremendous. He seemed to be swinging slow but there was full commitment to the technique and he was landing the ball right on the side and baselines over and over. Honestly, I didn’t think Tommy did a lot wrong in the first two sets, but he was getting blown off the court. Eventually, Safiullin came back down to Earth. A few errors, and a patch where Paul really got to hammer away at his backhand led to a momentum shift, and it suddenly seemed very uphill for Roman to produce enough offense to get another set. There is no reward in this next round, as he plays a less powerful player, but one with the stamina and variety to close out if he gets a two set lead.

If you rearrange the letters in Tommy Paul you get Maupy Lomt, which isn’t great. If you rearrange the letters in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina though, you get Funky Alligators Dancing, which I think is pretty cool. He had a much easier second round, beating Juan Manuel Cerundolo pretty easily. Having the clay-court background just makes it a lot easier to deal with Cerundolo, and Fokina really never had pressure in this one. Tommy and Alejandro have played twice in their career, and both matches came this year. They played a 5 set classic in the Australian Open, and a 6-3, 7-5 match in Miami. Both went the direction of Paul. This will probably make this a great match for two reasons. One, Tommy will believe that he can win even if the scoreline is not in his favor. Two, ADF will be pushing hard from the beginning to prove he can get this done. He has a tremendous attitude on the court and doesn’t give up, and Tommy Paul is one of the more consistent players that you’re going to see this year.

You’re not going to see a lot of separation in rallies in this one. Both don’t really have a deficiency in their game. They’re both fast, good off both wings, and very solid defensively. Tommy has a better serve and slightly bigger forehand which is likely why he’s snuck through in their first two encounters. Fokina has a more varied approach also, and utilizes the dropshot very well. There is some credence to the idea that having every shot makes it tough to make the right decisions, but I think what you’ll see with Fokina if you’re not as results-oriented, is a guy aiming to be the best at tennis, not to just win one match or get to a certain ranking. These guys are getting invaluable big match experience and without the pressure of that Next Gen tag on them, they’ve been constantly improving not just their tennis, but their ability to win matches. This is the game of the day. I sort of think ADF is due for a win, but Tommy has only been losing to Alcaraz these past two weeks. Maupy Lomt in 5.

Shelton vs Karatsev

Karatsev kept the ball rolling, gritting out a difficult 4 set win against Carballes Baena. Here he gets less of a wrestling match and more of a sprint. Returning Shelton’s serve is extremely difficult, and if you leave the ball short he can generally end the rally in two shots. He’s been playing doubles a lot and it has really made him not just more capable at net but also more intelligent about his approaches. Getting to work multiple shots and knowing when a volley doesn’t have to be hit hard or hit for a winner is something a lot of guys on tour just don’t get experience with, but for a server like Shelton it can really be a big boost to his career. Wear and tear at the baseline is real, and the fatigue can also impact your serving. If you look at a guy like Isner though, he’s still competitive on tour and a threat to win tiebreaks because he’s efficient at net and applies the pressure at the right moments. Court position in racquetsports is huge, and tennis is one of the last ones where players are willing to choose defense over offense.

For Shelton, he’ll be warmed up for this and fresh. Him and Thiem played a high level in their first set, but Thiem had to pull out with a bout of nausea. I think Karatsev is more well-rounded because his backhand is so stable and such a good return tool, but Shelton should have equal chances here to win. He’s a better server and a bit more comfortable on all parts of the court. Karatsev definitely should like his chances in baseline rallies though, and this really comes down to who gets the first big swing in on each point. Karatsev’s heavy forehand angles cross (if accurate), will also make life difficult on Shelton, since his backhand is not great at generating it’s own pace. Expecting a close match, with Shelton and the home crowd becoming a factor as things progress. Shelton in 5.

Stricker vs Bonzi

Stricker is an international man of mystery. He simultaneously looks like a 40 year old man who hosts a public access show about lovely canals in Britain, and a 10 year old kid trying to sneak into an R rated movie by wearing his hat backwards. In any event, it’s great to see he’s no longer following Malfoy around, because there’s no way he could remain a villain after the performance he put together in round two. Tsitsipas entered this match playing decent ball, and he continued to do so for 4 hours and 10 minutes. The usual backhand errors were there, but he served well and he played hard. Stricker is damned good at tennis though, and him being lefty made this very difficult for Stef. Stricker was safe in his normal lefty patterns, and since he’s excellent at moving to net there was extra pressure on Tsitsipas’ accuracy.

After winning the first set to the delight of the crowd, Stricker lost two tiebreaks and found himself down a break in the fourth, returning to stay in the match. He managed to break and in the fifth it just seemed like he made all the right decisions. It was a great moment for him and he was pretty happy in the post-match interview. For a guy who’s had some fitness and withdrawal issues to win a 4 hour match was pretty great. That, however, is where some question marks arrive for the next match. In the DC chat, we’ve been excited about Stricker for a few seasons now. He’s one of the more promising Challenger level players, but it’s been tough for him to get big wins on tour because he’s not the biggest hitter. The Challenger tour is a grind also, so it’s hard to be at your best when you finally do get a chance.

This win sets him up with a really winnable match, but the question is how Stricker recovers. He’s not the most physically imposing player yet, and Bonzi’s backhand is a good bit better than Tsitsipas’. Oddsmakers again are going against the likely betting trend and rating Bonzi at around +109 against Stricker. Given Bonzi’s downright terrible season, not a lot of people are backing him in general so it’s another arrow pointing at the Bonz. I would also add that despite his level being poor, the big complaint about his slump has been that it makes very little sense. He made his way on tour and has wins against very good players, so to see him playing so inconsistent (especially on his backhand) has been a puzzle. Him beating Halys, then backing it up by outdueling Eubanks, means that there is potential that he’s back. I expect this to be close, but I think Stricker has a chance to get this done quickly. He has a good service game, he’s the player with the higher ceiling, and Bonzi’s win against Eubanks is not as great because he was dealing with some stomach issues. Jabeur, I believe, is the only player we’ve really seen visibly sick and still able to fight through it so far.

If the match drags on, fatigue is an issue. Stricker had to come through qualifying, and if you count the sets so far he’s played 17 to Bonzi’s 8. I really want Stricker to win, but the price and the asterisk next to his season are a concern. It’s a real copout to pick two results, so Stricker in 3 or Bonzi in 5.

Sidenote : Tsitsipas appears to have split with coach Mark Phillippoussis after this loss

Mensik vs Fritz

Me insisting that the oddsmakers know something I don’t feels gross, so here I’ll disagree with them. Fritz is listed at -1600 for this match. I can assure you, Taylor Fritz is not -1600 against anyone. If they tie Mensik’s legs together, you will still be nervous giving 16 to 1 odds. I do respect how well Fritz played in the second round though. Varillas is generally the type of player who makes late inroads into a match, and Fritz was able to hold him off. He was winning so handily at one point that he started to make a few errors, but he actually does look a bit better than usual this week.

I sometimes wish that the announcers would relax a little when they discuss Fritz. They’ve been lauding the American players for so long, you’d think they’d breathe when they finally get good. Yesterday (insert American announcer who doesn’t follow tennis unless they’re announcing) brought up how Fritz likes the backhand to backhand rallies, and feels he’s a favorite in them against anyone. Fine, good to be confident I suppose, and it explains why he looks at his box so confused sometimes when he gets beat. Unfortunately, the announcer followed it up by saying a lot of players take their backhands down the line against him because they know Fritz wants the cross-court exchange and they don’t want to get involved. I mean, what? The book on beating Fritz for years and years has been to isolate his backhand. He puts the ball back but it genuinely lacks length most of the time and it’s almost never a winner. It’s just creating unnecessary hate for the American pros when the Tennis Channel announcers talk about them like they’re superheros.

Rant about bad announcing aside, Fritz has a very tough match on his hands here. Mensik is 18 years old, but he’s already at tour level. There is no weak wing for him, and him and Titouan Droguet played a really high level affair. It was easily better tennis visually than Fritz and Varillas, so the question is how does the level translate. If you watch a Challenger event you might see a couple guys who look tour level, but they could get 2,3 off the 80th ranked guy and you’d be left confused.
At -1600, I’m not sure if there isn’t some health issue I’m unaware of. Fritz would only be around -500 at most against Barrere, and Mensik was able to dismiss him in 4 sets. I think this is a tough spot for Fritz, not because he doesn’t have the weapons to win but because Mensik doesn’t really have holes in his game. He has a lot of composure as well, which will be important on a big stage with the crowd against him. I expect to see all of the bad aspects of Fritz’s game emerge here, from his unwillingness to accept his opponent’s quality to his pushmode backhand. Unfortunately for the hater in me, Fritz should have a big edge in free points on serve, and he’s a lot fresher than Mensik who had to come through qualifying. I really don’t think people realize how good Mensik already is at tennis. Fritz in 4-5.

Gojo vs Vesely

Vesely you rascal. No one else can turn up at the majors, play great, and still get doubted. Even in a match where he was up two sets on Cerundolo, he still seemed like he wouldn’t win. Vesely looked exhausted out there, and Cerundolo was able to wind up in a fifth that he looked like he’d run away with. Twice he was up a break in the final set, but his game really faltered in those moments. Unforced errors crept in and his first serve disappeared in those moments, and when they finally got to the tiebreaker, Vesely was just the slightly more consistent player. It’s impressive to see a guy hang in when he’s exhausted, and it’ll be interesting to see how he is physically against Gojo. One thing working slightly in his favor is that it’ll be a serving battle. Cerundolo was a tougher opponent on paper, but he was mostly engaging in baseline rallies with Vesely. It made for a lot of running, so Jiri being able to put returns in play almost worked against him in some sense. Gojo is serving impeccably, so Vesely’s legs can have the day off.

Gojo was a tough match for McDonald, but he didn’t even make things close. He was able to break serve in every set, and really never looked in danger on his own serve. It’s scary to see him playing this good, and if he keeps winning maybe I’ll dye my hair blonde too. Cerundolo really could have won the last round if he served better, so I think Gojo will be able to get through here. Vesely manages to play even when fatigued, but it’s hard to return and Gojo is by far the fresher player considering Vesely has played 10 marathon sets to his 6 lopsided ones. Gojo in 3-4.

Djere vs Djokovic

This is the first round where I think Djokovic could actually lose a set. Djere is playing solid and he made Gaston run out of ideas very quickly. Zapata Miralles put up a good fight, so I’d add a game or two in each set to the expectations for Laslo. Playing your compatriot is more comfortable generally, but working against Djere here is that he plays such a straightforward style. The lack of variation of pace is something that tends to play Novak into great form, and he has looked dedicated to getting through these early rounds quickly. Should be fun but it will feel inevitable. Djokovic in 3-4.

WTA Singles

Swiatek vs Juvan

Daria Saville gave a great performance in her match against Swiatek. She didn’t really have a direct way to score on Iga, but she used a heavy array of slices and height on her backhand to frustrate and delay Swiatek’s win. It really worked well at times, and other players will want to take note of this. In this next round, it’s unlikely that Swiatek sees a similar look. Kaja Juvan hits the ball really hard, and it was the key in dragging down Lauren Davis’ consistent baseline play. Davis was moving the ball really well in the first set, but as the match went on she got pushed further and further behind the baseline. Juvan’s serve isn’t particularly reliable, but it’s powerful and over the course of a long match that pays dividends. Juvan can score on Swiatek here because of the weight and pace of her shots, but I don’t think her percentages are going to hold up against Iga’s defense, and Swiatek should be able to see much less pressure on her own serve than Kaja will see on hers. Should be entertaining, but Swiatek in 2.

Ostapenko vs Pera

Down 5-2 in the second, Avanesyan managed to win 5 games in a row. It was a very Ostapenko Christmas, but to Jelena’s credit she just kept frowning and thwacking away. The third set was really tight, but Ostapenko just kept squandering break points. The thing about squandering break points is, it means you’re getting them. Eventually the ball went through the hoop, and Ostapenko seemed to feel a bit sheepish taking the applause from the crowd but she really did earn this win. Avenesyan is going to be really good. She plays big points well, and can cover basically any shot. When her serve gets better, and her arm heals (she has a lot of K tape on it) she should be a problem for everyone on tour, especially on clay.

Pera and Xiyu Wang seemed to be locked in an angry birds style contest, where they just flung huge projectiles at each other from distance. Neither one had a great rhythm, but that’s how it goes when two huge hitters play. Pera managed to hang on, and I think the experience she has playing big matches was the difference. She’s fairly inconsistent, but you can see that she levels off and hits the court when she needs to. Ostapenko may play a bit better in this round, as Avanesyan played her both into and out of form several times. I don’t think Bernarda will put as many shots back, and Jelena will swing a bit freer now that it’s a fresh match. Slight concerns because Pera beat her in 2 on clay in their previous meeting, but Pera’s ELO is infinitely higher on clay so this can somewhat be disregarded. Ostapenko in 2.

Wozniacki vs Brady

Return of the Woz. Back to the Wozture. Bill and Woz’s Bogus Journey. All excellent time travel movies. It seems Caroline is back, and the “what if I hit the court all the time” question is one that most players can not answer. Kvitova played solid in her match, but Wozniacki’s backhand just puts the ball back with an almost comical depth time and time again. Eventually, Petra forced forehands and was just a little bit off the mark. I don’t think Jenn Brady is facing the same pressure to end rallies, but it will be a similar problem. Both players are newly returned to the tour, so neither of their offenses are firing. I worry a little about Wozniacki, because she followed up her last marathon match with a lopsided loss to Svitolina. Brady also had a pretty tough situation in the second against Magda Linette, and managed to elevate her game in the third to win a lopsided set. At their peaks, I actually like Brady in this matchup, but she’s not there yet and Caroline has a big edge in consistency on the backhand side.

Jenn has one of the better forehands on the women’s tour as far as rally ball difficulty. She gets a lot of topspin on the ball and it can be tough to deal with. I like her in the exchanges against Wozniacki, but Woz isn’t really trying to do a lot with your shots. She’s very careful about her footwork, and it’ll be tough for Brady to produce offense here since Woz usually defends well to both sides. This should be really fun, and I don’t see a lot to separate them at their current levels. Wozniacki in 3.

Mertens vs Gauff

Collins looked great in the early part of the match, but she lost confidence and got Mertensed. I tuned in in the second set, and Collins was moonballing her backhand, and trying to smoke her forehand. This is fine, but she wins almost strictly behind her backhand, so if she’s lost a little confidence in the shot, it’s a bad day. Elise is a tough out, and once you start missing or forcing things it makes life easier on her, because she can just focus on putting the ball in tough spots rather than ending the rally.

Gauff just looks way different this summer. She’s playing the same players who give her trouble, and she’s running through them. It’s not just the scorelines, but the speed that she’s doing it at. Great players get you out of there before you find your rhythm, and that’s what happened to Andreeva. Against Mertens, I think it will take a bit longer, but the same outcome is probable. Gauff is hitting the ball huge off both wings, and she’s faster than her opponents. If she’s not missing, how do you beat her? Maybe that 4.0 guy knows. Gauff in 2 close sets.

Rybakina vs Cirstea

I goofed overlooking Cirstea’s offense in the Kalinskaya matchup. Anna had chances in the second set, but overall she was handcuffed and rushed on most of her shots. Cirstea has a better serve, and she’s really playing aggressive right now, so Kalinskaya getting into lengthy backhand exchanges just didn’t occur. It sets up a high-octane match against one of the two favorites for this event, and it will be a tricky one for Rybakina because she got a walkover. It’s great to be fresh, but Cirstea sets can go very quickly, so Rybakina will want to get off to a good start against a challenging offensive player. The book on Rybakina has been that her offense isn’t explosive necessarily, but the weight of shot is real and consistent, so I think she’ll be able to wear Cirstea down by the end of this. Rybakina in 2-3.

Zhu vs Bencic

Zhu’s form proved to be the difference in her rematch against Azarenka, and the 3-set loss became a 2 set win. You can tell she was working hard, because it’s one of the few times I’ve seen her really screaming and emoting on the court after rallies. Big win for her, and now she gets, another huge name? Azarenka is a really difficult opponent because she doesn’t miss much, but her offense is tempered these days. Bencic takes your time away though, and this should be a real good test of how efficient she is. Zhu isn’t missing much, and she hits hard. If Bencic loses the plot, or her first serve percentage dips, this could be a long day. As it stands, oddsmakers have Bencic rolling here, but at this stage I’m not sure that Zhu can get rolled. She’s going to make Bencic play a lot of balls, and this has been the undoing of Belinda in the past. I still think she solves the puzzle, but it might take 3 sets. Bencic in 3, and if she can win in two then the match against Rybakina (assuming she wins) gets real interesting.

Muchova vs Townsend

I really didn’t think Townsend was consistent enough to beat Haddad Maia, but she managed to do what great servers do : get to the end of sets. At 3-3 Haddad Maia can grind the point out, because it isn’t a huge impactful moment. At 5-5? Every single point becomes a huge turning point for momentum and for the crowd. Townsend stepped up big in these situations and went for her shots. It’s not surprising that she did, but it’s great to watch a big offense land on the consistent side in a big moment. To her credit, she served very well in this and came up with a lot of good passes. Townsend is one of the best doubles players on tour, and the skill she possesses really shined through here. As is usual on a tour as deep as the WTA, there is no reward. She plays Karolina Muchova, who beat Frech fairly simply. Muchova is just a much tougher situation here because she defends very well, but plays with a more versatile style than BHM. Net rallies are fine with Muchova. She can trade power well, and if you give her time she’s likely to work 1-2 shots and end the rally. Should be a powerful offensive clash, but Muchova should win this in 3 at most. Maybe they go 4. Who knows, maybe they play forever. I’m with it. Go tennis.

Wang vs Schmiedlova

The lack of respect to Tormo’s run makes more sense now, as her level really dropped off in the second set against Wang. She was up a set and had chances to break, but she just couldn’t hold onto the advantage. Wang got in a good rhythm, and that was the end. She’ll have a tough match here with Schmiedlova, who is similarly consistent on defense, but hits a much bigger ball. Wang is definitely the better offense here, but the question is whether Schmiedlova’s power rushes her or not. Schmiedlova will be happy with her previous round win, as Masarova made a handful of unforced errors at the end of points she seemingly had earned. There shouldn’t be much to separate Wang and Schmiedlova, but Anna has a bit more experience at this stage and Wang benefitted greatly from the lack of power that Tormo plays with. Schmiedlova in 3.