2023 US Open Men's & Women's Round Four - Sunday Matches 🐢

Men’s Singles

Hijikata vs Tiafoe

Rinky Hijikata into the fourth round at a major, let’s fluppin go. His draw hasn’t been the toughest, but he has played some really solid tennis to get here. The difference between him and Ruud was clear in the last round. Where Ruud was trying to infuse depth and height with his backhand to no avail, Hijikata was able to redirect. He kept Zhang running on basically every baseline rally the entire match, and despite Zhang’s resolve, he did appear to be running on fumes. It’s such a strange phenomenon to get tired, because 10 minutes after the match you’re like “no! Keep fighting!”, but in the moment you’re already forcing yourself to do more than you’re comfortable with. Credit to Zhang, his two upset wins electrified this draw, and his ceiling is very high if he remains confident in his groundstrokes.

Hijikata against Tiafoe feels like a video game progression. He beat the defensive guy with the nice forehand (Fucsovics), then he beat the guy with all the power and a big serve (Zhang), and now he plays the boss who somehow has both (side note, FU Metal Mario). Tiafoe had a tough match with Mannarino, who he later described as “annoying to play.” I agree, but he also added that Mannarino is out here “bunting” the ball and idk, maybe have your compliments include only one jab at a player. Not everyone, but most of these guys are doing their best out there so you want to be as gracious as possible when you win. It’s good to remember, though, that these guys have off-court relationships that we don’t know about and some may be more comfortable discussing their views of other’s openly. In French, Google says Bunting the ball is lancer le ballon, which sounds pretty cool. If I’m coaching Mannarino, I’m perfectly willing to shout “LANCER LE BALLON!” and get paid to sit up there and shake mystery powders into thermoses.

Hijikata is a bit out-gunned here, but he’s the best player Tiafoe has played yet. His solid hitting and ability to start quick should give him a chance to keep things even in the early-going, but the crowd won’t be on his side this time, and I think Tiafoe’s physical strength and speed mean that Hijikata will have to hit through him late in the match when it’s harder to do so. At a 250 in the 3 set format I think Rinky has a better chance, but in this specific setting it’s very uphill. He got a bit flat late against Zhang, and while I’m impressed that he noticed and corrected this, it looked like if Zhang could get to a fifth that Hijikata might just be fading. The plan is simple, isolate Tiafoe’s backhand and hope that he gets a little careless. The problem with the plan is that Tiafoe was just played into form by Mannarino, who basically challenged him to force the issue and found that Tiafoe was unwilling to do so. Frances played a composed match, and another one here should see him through in 4.

Paul vs Shelton

This is probably the closest match of the day. Earlier this year at the Australian Open Shelton and Paul met in the quarterfinals, it was a close match in the scoreline, but it always seemed like Tommy was just a bit too consistent for Shelton to win. Shelton won the third set, and the first was a tiebreak, but it never really felt like he could win. This match feels a bit different. It’s only 8 months later, but Shelton seems a lot stronger physically. His serve has always been good, but his delivery this week has made him nearly unplayable. He’s also added some excellent netplay to his offense, and I think this one will be a little closer. Since the last one was only decided in the second half of each set, that means we could be in for a treat.

Tommy Paul and Davodovich Fokina was projected to be a battle, but like a handful of players last round ADF just didn’t show up. He made a number of unforced errors, and it reminded me a little of his match against Alex De Minaur in Toronto. Tommy played stead, aside from a lapse in the third, and he still is a pretty good shout to make the semifinals. Paul’s durability is the main key here. Shelton was able to get a lot of errors from Karatsev, and once his first serve disappeared, Aslan seemed unable to remain in rallies when Shelton was dictating. Tommy isn’t Djokovic out there, but he’s really reliable on defense on the backhand side, and his speed is excellent. It makes me feel like he might just be able to outlast Shelton again. Last match Paul was able to break serve a handful of times, and those might be tougher to come by here. I’m expecting a few tiebreaks, and this really could be close since the expectations are on Paul and Shelton is now familiar with this stage. Paul has also been a little shaky in some of his early matches, so this could go the distance. Paul in 5.

Stricker vs Fritz

Oddsmakers nailed the stern challenge Bonzi would present, but Stricker’s fatigue was not the huge factor it was projected to be. Early in the match, Stricker was really making a lot of unforced errors. He just didn’t look ready to play in the first set, alternating between heat-check forehands that sailed long and other heat-check forehands that sailed long. He played too many balls to Bonzi’s backhand, and he really struggled. Once Dominic settled in in the second set though, the match felt over. He started serving Bonzi’s forehand almost exclusively, and Bonzi went with a chip forehand for what felt like the rest of the match. It landed short often, and it just gave Stricker time to set up for his forehand. When he got the first strike in, he was able to dominate things and since Bonzi got a bit tired himself, Stricker’s net-rushes paid dividends.

While Stricker was winning another marathon, Taylor Fritz was getting a gift. I was very confused at the -1429 price, but when Mensik arrived with heavy bandaging on his right bicep, the story made sense. Mensik was injured or very sore, and it appears he chose to take the court rather than forfeit. It was a big moment for him, and it was his birthday, so I get it. He wasn’t his normal composed self though, and he threw in a number of unforced errors and had trouble landing serves. Fritz is playing probably the best tennis I’ve seen in these early rounds, but he had help in that match. Stricker is obviously going to do better than Mensik, but the fatigue that Bonzi couldn’t take advantage of is a guarantee that Fritz can get through. He’s already serving well enough to win, and his forehand return issues won’t be the same as Bonzi since he pretty much ragemode laments any chip return he hits after he gets punished for it. Fritz’s backhand is a bit mundane for me, but he is able to reflect power well and he’s a bigger hitter with more experience than Bonzi. This should be entertaining, but I think Fritz wins in 3-4.

Gojo vs Djokovic

Gojo’s march through this draw looks more like you’d expect Djokovic’s to. Borna has served lights out this week. At one point against Vesely he’d won 22/23 first serves, and had dropped something like 4 points total on serve. He’s always had a powerful delivery, but his baseline game was a bit rigid. That seems to have changed, and he has been able to break serve in most of his sets this past two weeks. Beating Djokovic is a near-impossible ask generally, but he’ll have a bit of hope after witnessing the last round.

Djokovic and Djere started out fairly normal, but Djere didn’t blink. When he won a few service games, nobody worried. When he won the first set, nobody worried. “Haha, Djokovic always does this” and “Ok but he can’t keep that up forever”. When he broke in the second set, nobody worried. “Early break, let’s see if he can hold it!” When he won the second set, I think a lot of us started to worry. Djere was playing excellent and hitting nonstop pace down the lines and cross-court, but Djokovic didn’t seem to have a way to get himself out of trouble. He was playing decent, but wasn’t imposing himself of redirecting in the way we’ve come to expect. Somehow, the guy who’s won 22 majors knew how to win. He stayed in possum mode and kept running Djere around until the fatigue was visible. Djere looked like he was playing in an underwater level, and Djokovic was expressionless. It was actually painful to watch the next two sets. Djere hung in there, but there was just a sense of inevitability to them.

Djokovic’s level fluctuating round by round is not new, but I really like the way he played against Muller and he seemed more reserved against Djere. Two completely different opponents I guess, but I think Djokovic could have served better. This match against Gojo is allegedly a foregone conclusion, but a much tougher offensive test. The problem for servers generally against Novak is that once he gets a read on their delivery, they’re sunk. Gojo will need to get off to a good start, and this is the classic spot where the last guy did well, so I believe that the following round Djokovic will be the same. Escaping from the Djerebear can really free up a player though, and generally there are a lot of title winners that have the “saved 4 match points in the third round” or “down two sets against X” story to tell. Gojo playing well in rallies means that he’ll win a bunch of games in this one. Rather than pretend to know how many, I’ll say that it’ll be very interesting to see if Djokovic is still there to be scored on, or if he sprints from 0-0 in this. Djokovic in 3-4.

WTA Singles

Swiatek vs Ostapenko

In a land of epic clashes of huge names, it’s nice to finally get an easy one. Swiatek vs Ostapenko. Reliable champ vs volatile battle nugget. What could be simpler. Easy enough, I’ll just go check the head 2 head record and what the fuuuuuhhhh. Ostapenko won their previous meeting. It was a three-setter in Dubai, but she won it. Well maybe those were just ultra-fast courts? It gets worse though, she won their previous meeting before that in Indian Wells, which is the slowest hardcourt on tour. To add insult to injury, Ostapenko also beat Swiatek in Birmingham on grass. It makes this an extremely exciting fourth round.

Swiatek is here after a 0,1 win against Juvan. There isn’t much to say about Swiatek in these early rounds, the lower tier players just don’t seem able to win games against her. Once she gets a lead, her offensive opens up also which is when she’s at her best. Iga paints the court and it is really enjoyable to watch. While she’s been coasting through this draw, Ostapenko has been getting here the hard way. All her previous matches have been three-setters, and none of them really felt like they needed to be. Jelena clearly has the level to play against Swiatek, and it’s the only thing that still seems able to score on Swiatek : huge power. Ostapenko crushes the ball, and when she’s on she’s able to come up with shot after shot. The problem with this is it requires a lot of strength and a lot of focus, and it seems so far like there are stretches of games where her errors cost her.

It is really hard to look at that match history and count Ostapenko out, but she’s not at her best in this tournament, and Swiatek seems very comfortable on these courts. The ball change is what she requested, and she’s proving very quickly that it benefits her a great deal. Swiatek in 2-3.

Wozniacki vs Gauff

Another day, another Gauff match where she somehow is in trouble while dominating things. With Mertens up a set and seemingly about to go up a break, I understand Gauff’s concern. Her and Mertens have played some close matches, and Elise is always right below that top tier so she won’t hesitate to win if she has the chance. Watching the match on mute though (ty announcers for chasing me away time and time again <3), all I could see is Mertens scrambling from behind the baseline, and Gauff getting to pummel the ball practically overhand from right on and inside the baseline. All that’s missing from her game is a tiny bit more belief, and a tiny bit more patience. There aren’t many players on tour that can hit with her for more than an hour, and Mertens is only one of them in terms of defense. When she had chances to redirect or play offense, she wasn’t able to hit through the court. To be fair, part of that reason is because Gauff is very fast and defends so well to both corners. Gauff beating Mertens felt like Djokovic beating Djere. Yes, it was a dangerous situation, but I don’t know if they needed to be there in the first place.

Gauff will now face Wozniacki, who is another excellent baseliner who simply does not have the weight of shot nor the pace to beat Gauff if she plays well. Wozniacki was down a set and a break, and the key there was Brady’s power. Brady was playing solid, but her routine drives down the middle of the court seemed to handcuff Wozniacki, and she (Woz) made a few more errors than she normally does. In the end, Brady’s conditioning wasn’t as good as Wozniacki’s, and Caroline got a win for a huge result in her comeback tour.

Wozniacki can extend this match, and Gauff does make some errors when she’s the one who’s supplying most of the offense. It just feels like if Brady’s weight of shot was bothering Wozniacki, Gauff’s is going to do the same. Gauff is also much more well-conditioned than Brady right now, so the avenue to victory that Caroline took last round is not available here. I’m expecting the narrow victory against Mertens to free Gauff up a bit, and her team should have her prepped to know that this will take multiple shots per rally. I just don’t see a way for Wozniacki to be there better player as this match gets past the opening couple of games. Gauff in 2.

Cirstea vs Bencic

Sorana Cirstea played some of the best tennis she has on tour in the last round. Rybakina has some injury concerns swirling, but she was playing a good level of tennis. Her backhand was getting good depth and pace, and her forehand was fairly solid. Her serving wasn’t the usual crispy delivery, and I think this let Cirstea really hang around in this match. Rybakina got to net a lot in this one, and Cirstea was able to generate pace and pick her off on the big points. She’s had a lot of three-setters against top competition, and it was great to see her finally win one. After she won, I don’t think I’ve seen more genuine emotion pour out of her, so it was nice to see her smiling and happy with her performance.

I’m a big fan of offense, and Sorana is will to go for her shots. This next round pits two very similar minds against each other. Bencic is through after a really quality win against a tough competitor in Lin Zhu. Zhu played great this week and Bencic was on the ropes, despite playing some high quality tennis. Bringing the best out of Bencic in the early rounds is great for the tour, because she has a level of skill and execution on her offensive shots that young players watching can learn from. She really creates nice short angles on her backhand, and her timing on her forehand on half-volleys is remarkable. Bencic and Cirstea should be about even from the baseline, and I suspect a lot of rallies will end with the ball flying long or in the net. Bencic is not as powerful as Rybakina, but she’s faster which should help her close to net a bit better.

Digging into their h2h is not that helpful here, but since I think this is a coinflip, the records do back me up. Cirstea leads 2-1, but Bencic won their previous meeting here last year. Their last two matches went to a deciding set, and it’s hard for me to think this won’t. Cirstea always has a game or two drop in level since she hits such a flat and powerful ball. Bencic also will be up against it trying to return Cirstea’s power, but the way she dug in against Zhu was admirable. It’s hard to give it to Bencic outright, because the reason she had to dig in against Zhu was because she lost her serve so often. Amazing match incoming, and I’m leaning towards Cirstea to keep her run going. Cirstea in 3.

Muchova vs Wang

Xinyu Wang is playing some spirited ball. She was down a set and a break to AK Schmiedlova, and proceeded to win the second set. She was down a break in the third, and after getting it back to 2-2 won something like 13 of the next 14 points. She does struggle with errors at times, but when she finds her rhythm she absolutely smokes the ball. It’s the type of quality offense you need to do anything with Karolina Muchova, but the question will be how long her offense can hold up. Muchova is through after outlasting Taylor Townsend. Townsend played great this week, but after coming up short in the first set tiebreaker Muchova was able to pull away in the second. Wang is way more willing to play long points from the baseline, but I think the same equation is in play. What’s working for Wang so far is late match comebacks. As her opponents defense falters, she’s able to produce more winners and more forced errors from them. I like this, but Schmiedlova and Tormo are mostly defensive players, and Muchova is someone you can’t set and swing against generally because she’s a capable offense herself. This is probably the end of the road for Wang, but Muchova matches are not always so straightforward since she plays such a skillful approach. Muchova in 2.