2023 US Open Men's & Women's Round Four - Monday Matches 🐢

Women’s Singles

Stearns vs Vondrousova

Peyton Stearns and Katie Boulter was a marathon at the Australian Open, but the winner this week needed just 98 minutes to get through to the fourth round. Stearns has had a rough patch in the middle of this season, but she looked like the best version of herself in the last round. The expected long rallies and solid defense was there, but the big difference was how huge Stearns was hitting her forehand. She can really smoke the ball and you get the sense that in some of her college matches she’d really let the guns go and put on a great show when she felt comfortable. It’s hard to feel that way on tour, but she’s way better when she goes for her shots. We saw this with Kenin and Kasatkina. The defensive ability and baseline solidity was there, but when Kenin eased off, Kasatkina was ready to take a full swing.

Up next for Stearns is a way tougher defensive test. Marketa Vondrousova beat Alexandrova fairly easily, and it was the bad version of Alexandrova that ended the match so quickly. I give her credit for always going for her shots, but when she’s off, there is no plan B. Vondrousova also can seemingly contend with her best offense anyway, so it was a very uphill situation since Marketa seems to still be improving. Stearns is likely playing the role of Boulter here. She can be competitive in the scoreline, but it will be hard for her to find her way out of rallies. Vondrousova has a much more reliable serve, and she’ll be fairly comfortable with Stearns’ patterns because she played her in Wimbledon (6-2, 7-5 for Vondrousova). The 7-5 is promising, because a young player often does only get comfortable late in the match against a top player, and Stearns’ upside is very high since she has every shot and has a good court-sense. This feels like a not yet situation though; Vondrousova in 2.

Keys vs Pegula

This section of the draw is really strong. Keys won an exception match against Samsonova that saw her play well for a good ⅔ of the contest. She played 5 great service games in the first set, but you just got the sense that she was running out of ideas at the end. Samsonova put the ball in some difficult spots, and Keys made errors and lost the set 7-5. Madison hitting the court looks like a top 5 player, but if she’s off balance or the ball takes a funky bounce or she’s rushed, her skills disappear. It’s a practice thing I think, because on the court players with such a big offense just aren’t called upon to play those defensive slices and half-volleys that often. For now, she’s through after Samsonova basically couldn’t keep up on serve.

Pegula had a much safer but somehow more complicated match, needing about two hours to get past Svitolina. It’s not surprising that Svitolina got to a third, but it makes the Keys matchup extra tricky because Svitolina’s offense is a good bit safer to play against than Keys’. Surprisingly, Keys and Pegula have only played once before, meeting in 2022 in San Diego where Pegula won 6-4, 7-5. She was down 4-2 in the second in that match, so Keys will have some belief heading into this. Samsonova broke down a little bit, and I think the big difference between her and Pegula is how simple Jessica plays compared to Liudmila. Samsonova is creating constantly, and it feels like mental fatigue can be as big an issue as physical injuries. Pegula is really solid though, and I think if she sticks to the script she will be able to outlast Keys most of the time. Since Keys is serving well, and Pegula loves to go to a deciding set, I do think this goes 3 sets. Pegula in 3.

Jabeur vs Zheng

Grumble. My prediction fell short, but seeing Bouzkova up a set and Jabeur looking a bit lost out there made me feel smart, just for a moment. This match took a turn in the second set that somehow turned it into a classic. Bouzkova hurt her groin, and took an off-court medical timeout. The injury seemed genuine, and when she returned her movement and ability to step into her shots seemed very hampered. Suddenly, a very ill-looking Jabeur became the healthy one, and the job was just to move Bouzkova around. Bouzkova seemed like she’d end up forfeiting, but Ons proceeded to play so rough that this never became a real option. Jabeur first gave the break back while serving for the set, and then wound up barely squeaking by in a tiebreaker.

In the third, it was more of the same. All Jabeur had to do was keep the ball in the court, since Bouzkova’s normally subdued power was even more diminished, but throughout this match she just couldn’t. Forehands sailed long, and the simple put-aways at the end of rallies found the net and sailed wide. It was hard to watch, and exciting af. It’s rare with the conditioning level of pro tennis that you get a match where both players are just out on their feet, but this was it, and both showed great heart in continuing. You wanna melt? After losing the first 7-5, Jabeur was over talking to her box. The announcers had to wait for a translation. Her coaches message? “I’m proud of you, just keep going, I’m proud of you”.

Late in the match, Jabeur seemed to become aware of the solution to the situation. Bouzkova was serving at 40-0 2-3, and Jabeur dropshotted her serve. It worked, and one the next play, Jabeur dropshotted her again. It worked, and Jabeur proceeded to break. She celebrated, and because of her illness, she gets a pass. It was a match where I feel she should have won in 2, but Jabeur doesn’t seem to realize that she’s favored in the long rallies and the short rallies against these opponents. She’s just plain better at tennis, and her conditioning is not so bad nor is Bouzkova’s counter-punching good enough that she needs to force the issue. It was interesting to see Jabeur revert to her old game in the big moments. These players have years of training, but the topspin forehand is not the first choice on a big point. They tend to feel more comfortable hitting the flatter inside-out forehand, and Jabeur when she runs out of ideas goes immediately to the dropshot. I think this is a better plan going forward since she’s not physically at her best.

Zheng had a similarly exhausting battle with Lucia Bronzetti, and it’s a good sign that she was able to come through this. At 4-3 Bronzetti in the third, it would have been very easy for Zheng to make a few errors and lose, but her training is solid so her shots didn’t break down. I think she’s a favorite against Jabeur, but at this point it’s 2 matches in a row that I thought Jabeur was going to succumb to her illness. She’s visibly erratic and her expression is that of someone feeling rough, but there is some of that in her normal game so I’m not 100% sure of how she’s feeling out there. Almost losing to Bouzkova though means Zheng is a bigger problem. Qinwen hits much bigger, and has a very capable offense with time. She also serves well and just got played into form by Bronzetti. Jabeur still is the better player with the more exciting and versatile game, but I normally would be giving Zheng half a shot against her. I am partially okay being wrong here since I’m a big Ons fan, but this feels like a combination of Noskova’s offense and Bouzkova’s consistency, and both of those equations looked a bit dangerous for Jabeur. Zheng in 2.

Kasatkina vs Sabalenka

This is becoming one of the best rivalries on tour, but not really in the scoreline. Kasatkina has only beaten Sabalenka once, and their recent match in Cincinnati was not close (6-2, 6-3). Darya makes you come up with huge offense to score a point, but unfortunately that’s exactly what Sabalenka does. Aryna is playing great, and beat Burel fairly easily. The nonstop pressure of someone hitting bigger than you is one thing, but Sabalenka goes for small targets when she has a little time and she’s not really missing much. The difference on serve is the big problem I think in this matchup. Kasatakina is able to hang in rallies because of her speed and skill, but when she’s down in the scoreline, Sabalenka gets to take full swings on her serve. I’ve watched almost all of their matches, and I’ve cheered for Kasatkina in every one. It just feels like she has to play a perfect game just to get to the finish line, and at the finish line Sabalenka is still able to score so much easier on her serve. Sabalenka in 2-3, and the draw is starting to look wide open for her with Jabeur under the weather.

Men’s Singles

Alcaraz vs Arnaldi

Upset of the tournament so far I’d say, as Arnaldi straight setted a hapless Cam Norrie. I ate it on this one, but I’m happy to see the younger generations actually moving through the rankings and winning big matches, so kudos to Arnaldi for continuing his high level of play. Norrie wins on consistency, but there were a lot of unforced errors in this one from him. It’s like Schwartzman in a sense, if he’s missing rally balls then he’s just not going to win. It takes away the sense of urgency an opponent feels to end a rally if they think you might also miss, and if you’re a grinder like Norrie you don’t want your opponent hitting the court.

Alcaraz faced a tough test against Evans, and didn’t so much drop a set as he was defeated in it. I really liked the way Dan competed here, and the crowd enjoyed it as well. Here, Alcaraz has a tougher test I think. Evans might be the more well-known player, but Arnaldi smoking Norrie and beating Fils indicates a great level of play. With a junior phenom also, the question of their ceiling is always a fun mystery so this should be a good look at how he plays. Since Alcaraz is still ironing out his game, there are errors there. He’s willing to go big when the shots are open, and a consistent big hitter like Arnaldi might benefit from that. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Arnaldi gets a set here, but Carlos has seemed to play to the level of his opponent a lot recently, so he should get this done in 4. The big difference here I think will be in ability to create short balls. Alcaraz has extra juice on his shots, and he’s excellent in the front-court which takes away Arnaldi’s ability to score off his dropshots. Should be a really exciting contest, because Arnaldi is so technically sound, but Alcaraz is the 1 seed for a reason. Alcaraz in 4.

Zverev vs Sinner

Somehow, I felt like Sinner has been beating Zverev a lot in their history. Checking the h2h though, Zverev has won their last three. Adding to his appeal here is how well he navigated his match against Dimitrov. Grigor showed up in typical troll-mode, bucking the trends and playing great when you expect him to fold. He was near-perfect in the first two sets, and after winning the first things started to look bad. Zverev went down a break in the second, and it was the basic spot that he used to freeze in. Zverev coming back from a big deficit is just not something you expect him to do, because he has an ego and it’s hard for him to accept what’s going on. To his credit though, he dug in.

Zverev dropped into his usual 5-10 feet behind the baseline location, and he just made it tough for Dimitrov to score an easy point. While that has been a big problem for him in the past, I am perhaps reconsidering. Zverev has always had trouble with his length on his forehand, and his ability to create. He hits the tape often going down the line, and on his backhand he looks like he’s easing the ball into the court at times. From 10 feet behind the baseline though, it seems like he can take a full swing. If the ball is landing in, and he can still cover the court, I say let him hang out back there. It will allow Sinner to create short angles and get to net, but I’m not sure it’s so easy to do that when Zverev is hitting so hard. In between all the rallies, Zverev served well. He landed 70% first serves (won 71%), and had 15 aces. He also won 70% of his second serve points. Some of those stats are inflated by what happened after the second set, because Dimitrov’s level fell way off, but this is probably the best tennis I’ve seen Zverev play in a long time, and I’d give him a shot against Sinner.

Sinner and Wawrinka played a great match, and the veteran was right at the finish line in a few of the sets he lost. Jannik knows he’s a favorite if he keeps Stan moving though, and in very promising fashion he broke right at the end of sets. He’s looked really sharp this week, and this match against Zverev should be one of the more high quality matches of the fourth round. Keys? I’m not really sure either should deviate from their normal game. Both have had some success in this matchup, and both are playing their best tennis. The question of peak vs peak is what makes the tournament structure such a good format. I think Zverev is a better server here, so if he can play with the same focus and resolve he did against Dimitrov he can actually win. For Sinner, he just needs to keep the unforced errors down. He is a more offensive baseliner than Zverev, and Sasha can get a bit passive and tends to play from very deep in the court. If Sinner can work 5-6 shots a rally, the cumulative Ls he can hand Zverev will build in his mind.

Any deviation from the counterpunching servebot plan A hurts Zverev I think, but he’s had tougher matches leading into this and has seemed inevitable. I hate to say it, but I think Zverev wins this. Anything over 4 sets will be an instant classic, and Sinner seems to have hit a new level here so it’s entirely possible we get there. Zverev in 5.

Medvedev vs De Minaur

Trying to beat the 3 seed? That’s 10 minutes in the dungeon. Down two sets and in a very hopeless situation, Baez managed to string together a few games. Medvedev is just impossible to hit through for Baez, so he basically only scored when he was able to close to net at the start of the match. If Daniil doesn’t miss, he doesn’t lose here. In the third though, Medvedev seemed to lose the plot. He got frustrated and started chattering at his box like a squirrel at a rainstorm. He took issue with the crowd making noise during the rally (this does suck), and he got himself broken and was down 5-2. At this point, an odd rain delay occurred, and Baez and Medvedev were sat down for about 10-15 minutes while the “rain” passed. This, unfortunately for Baez, gave Medvedev a chance to settle, and he ended up closing out in a tiebreak. This sets up an impossible to predict clash against Alex De Minaur.

ADM has been in rare form the past month or so, and he made Jarry looked all out of sorts. I want to blame Jarry, but it’s the same instantly confused and full of errors play that Davidovich Fokina displayed against Alex last month in Toronto. De Minaur has always been really consistent, but he’s showing a new level this year. He just beat Medvedev in Toronto in straight sets, and Medvedev has struggled a bit in the past with guys who can create their own power off of his shots. De Minaur has alway shit pretty flat, but he’s ripping his forehands recently and this should be a really good match. ADM winning the last two is a concern, but tennis at the majors is a bit different. Medvedev beat Baez easily, and he just won a title. He was in trouble in the third, but turned it up to another level late in the match and really closed out well. To be sure, Alex will win a set or two in this. The question of whether he can do it three times is a big one. Medvedev is playing well from the baseline, seems less motivated at events outside the majors if I’m being honest, and if he gets up a break, his serve is suddenly his best attribute.

I really am not sure what happens here. The Medvedev equation is difficult to solve, and while ADM is at a new level, so was Baez. I think this is destined for a fifth set, but I also think Medvedev will have to do less work to get there. Medvedev in 5.

Draper vs Rublev

Mmoh had a late surge in his loss to Draper, but he just didn’t seem to have the offense to hurt Jack. If Draper is fresh, his offense is top 10 so you really need to force him to play a lot of defense in order to take the edge off. Up next is a match where he likely will get dragged out a bit. Rublev’s serving is not going to net many aces, but it will get him balls to work with. Unfortunately for Jack, Rublev is also not going to hit clean winners off the bat. He hits behind his opponents a lot, and his inside-out forehand is his favorite shot. I see Draper looking like the better player early, but as the match stretches on I think Rublev taking long to score points will take Jack’s legs. On the flipside, Draper’s serve is wayyyyy better than Andrey’s, and him being a lefty kinda upends the whole Rublev strategy. They played last year in Washington though, and Rublev won in two (6-4, 6-2). Those are the score I expect the match to end in, but how many sets it takes to get there is a big question mark.

I’m not writing Jack off, but he’s had a pretty fortunate draw so far for his game style. Hurkacz was a serving battle where Hubert was the less consistent player, and Mmoh is improving but still is a very defensive player. He also was coming off a marathon 5 set comeback against Isner. Rinderknech showed that a good serve can get you near the finish line against Rublev, but he looked to be hoping for errors in baseline rallies by the end, and that doesn’t work against Rublev. Would it be a major if Rublev couldn’t make it to the quarterfinals and somehow play Medvedev for the umpteen billionth time? Rublev in 5.