2023 US Open Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Wednesday Matches 🐢

Vondrousova vs Keys

Brand new matchup here, but any past results would probably have to be discounted anyway. Marketa Vondrousova got through her last round, but her left shoulder was visibly injured. She seemed unable to swing hard on her second serves, and it seemd that she needed a level drop from Peyton Stearns to get through. Stearns played a very solid first set, showing glimpses of the level that makes her one of the USTA’s top prospects, but putting it all together for an entire match is really tough when you’re not the bigger hitter. Even with Vondrousova’s shoulder a bit hampered, most baseline rallies seemed even, and Marketa is just in a better rhythm right now than most of the tour. Injured, yes. Out of luck, probably not.

Madison Keys is one of those players that looks unbeatable when she has time and looks like Pedro Sousa when she doesn’t. If you’re able to move her around, get serve returns in deep, or draw her into the front-court, you’re in business. In a rare flat performance though, Pegula was unable to do any of these things. She was outhit from the beginning, and the pressure on her serve was visible as she landed just 55% of her first serves and gave up 9 break points in the match. Keys has been serving great this week, and she’s an exceptional frontrunner so this match was over in just an hour and three minutes. Playing with a closed roof did help a bit, as it always does for servers, but Pegula not being her usual consistent self and Keys running hot really made it a lopsided affair.

Vondrousova, even injured, represents the type of player that Keys can struggle with. She keeps the ball low and employs a lot of slices and dropshots. Her serve is not quite at full speed this week, but being left-handed is a big advantage as Madison’s big swings will have trouble connecting with her varied delivery. If Vondrousova is healthy, I think she can win. Since she’s not 100%, Keys is a slight favorite. She’ll want to isolate Marketa’s forehand on serves as much as she can and really focus on keeping her backhand within the ‘ol rectangle, as only unforced errors are going to cost her this match. Keys in 2-3.

Sabalenka vs Zheng

Aryna Sabalenka is quietly storming through this draw. She’ll debut as the world #1 after this tournament courtesy of Swiatek’s exit, and in the last round she beat Kasatkina in very convincing fashion. When the biggest offense is also playing consistent tennis, it’s just really tough to figure out who can stop her. I don’t think it’s Zheng. Zheng had a very good situation with Jabeur feeling under the weather, but the match was still fairly close in stretches. Of course, Jabeur is a top player even at 50%, but Zheng defensive abilities and lateral movement are a tiny bit slow and are general where she loses on tour. That means Sabalenka is going to score on her. They’re both huge hitters, but Aryna’s serve is a lot bigger and a bit more consistent.

There’s no previous meetings between these two, but Zheng is playing at a slightly lower tier than Sabalenka thus far. I expect that to continue. Qinwen has a really solid offense, and Sabalenka can disappear for a game or two, but those moments haven’t been present this week, and to keep harping on it makes me feel like some spider weaving a web to her past Ls. Aryna is a different player, and she won the other hardcourt slam this year. At this point, it’s her title to lose. Sabalenka in 2.

Alcaraz vs Zverev

Sure, Alcaraz is the favorite for this one and just won Wimbledon, but did you know Zverev never uses the towel? In what was one of the best matches of the tournament, Zverev and Sinner combined for four hours and forty-two minutes of monstrous tennis. It’s clear after watching that match how Zverev is able to dominate the h2h with Sinner, but it never really lets him separate in the scoreline. Zverev’s backhand is just a bigger and more stable wing than Sinner’s. He’s content to hang back behind the baseline, but Sinner’s dropshot execution just wasn’t great. He missed a few, which feels line minus two points, and he left a few high.

Zverev’s positioning is poor, but one of the ways Jannik scores on people is by rushing them or getting the ball into the corners and making them open their racquet face to return. Zverev seems to be in push-mode for their rallies, but he hits the ball way bigger and more consistently from deep in the court. It’s something for coaches of tall players to really consider. Zverev, Medvedev, and Hurkacz all play well from back there. Is tennis about adopting conventional strategies or is it about winning? If I’m coaching Zverev, I know my vote. By the third set, Jannik’s legs started to stiffen up. He was unable to sit at the changeovers, but to his credit, he continued to play exceptional tennis. Zverev hit a physical wall also, but there’s just a bit more core physical strength to him, and his serve really carried him through the match once both players were tired. He landed 70% of his first serves, while Jannik notched just 54%.

While Sinner and Zverev were enjoying a marathon, Alcaraz showed again that he’s just on another level from most players. Arnaldi played a great match, and still couldn’t win a set. Similar to Nadal, Alcaraz has practiced every unique skill shot. When he gets into those scrambling rallies at net or has to chase down or execute a lob, he makes the right choice and he makes a good percentage of his attempts. It just makes it really tough for players to bail out of long rallies against him, and in the past round his forehand looked very dangerous when Arnaldi left a ball short or hit a bit softer. Zverev has won a number of matches against Alcaraz, but I think he is at risk of getting exposed here. He’ll be a big fatigued after his last round, and Alcaraz is going to roast him with dropshots here.

For Zverev, it’s already a win in my book. He’s played harder and with more respect for himself and his opponents than he ever has pre-injury, and I really have hope for anyone who works hard at their craft. The maturity can come. He’ll need to serve well again, but I think he will. Alcaraz is not the best returner out there yet, and Zverev’s backhand is stronger. I just don’t see him overcoming Alcaraz in rallies if he’s 5-10 feet behind the baseline, and the Alcaraz he beat in the past has made improvements to his own backhand and his serve over the past 12 months. Zverev should get to the business end of 1 or 2 sets, simply because at this level of tennis it’s hard to shut someone down completely, but I don’t think he has enough ways to score on Alcaraz to win. Alcaraz in 4.

Medvedev vs Rublev

A very familiar matchup makes up the last quarterfinal of the day. Medvedev and Rublev have played a whopping 8 times already on tour, which is a pretty clear indication of how consistent they’ve performed on tour. Add in that all of them have been on hardcourt, and it’s a pretty clear indication of how much Medvedev hates clay. Rublev did win two matches in Cincinatti 2021 and at the World Tour Finals in 2022, but Medvedev has pretty much blanked him when they’ve met at this stage of the majors. Their matches are close, but Medvedev having a huge serve and a great defensive prowess makes a big difference here generally.

Someone pointed out that Rublev was in the top 5 for aces earlier this year, which made me blink many times. I find his delivery a bit generic, and he seems like one of those players who would benefit a bit from focusing on location for a while rather than power. Still, the serve has improved every season, and I know Rublev works extremely hard on his tennis outside of tournaments so there is hope.

The only worry I have here is the price offered. Medvedev leads 8-2, and just beat De Minaur into submission, so seeing Medvedev open at just -250 feels a little tricky. It’s not that their matches aren’t close, but Medvedev has always gotten the job done at the finish line so I think the books could balance investment at a slightly higher pricepoint. Them opening it lower is a slight nod to Rublev. That being said (or inferred), Rublev only scored 4 games in their most recent meeting in Dubai earlier this year, and at majors Daniil tends to be a bit more motivated.

It’s been a good week for Rublev, but he’s played guys he has more stamina than (Monfils/Rinderknech/Draper) and guys who basically couldn’t really go the distance with him from the baseline. Medvedev can. This feels like the video of the little girl karate chopping the tree. Yes bits are flying off, but I feel like the tree is going to be there when the girl gets tired.
Rublev should win a set or two, but will he? It’s hard to shake Medvedev when he reads your game well, but perhaps working in Rublev’s favor here is the extreme heat NYC is currently experiencing. Daniil is a bit of a sea monster, and he’s somewhat known for struggling in very hot conditions. I don’t think it’s enough for Rublev to get through though. Medvedev in 4.