2023 US Open Men's & Women's Quarterfinals - Tuesday Matches 🐢

Men’s Singles

Tiafoe vs Shelton

Pretty impressive for the US to have 3 of the 4 quarterfinalists in this bottom section. Getting a semifinalist at this event is also extremely important because it’s one of the few moments where the crowd can actually influence a match. Biased crowds at sporting events have been a factor for a long time, but some are known as rowdier than other. This past week we’ve seen crowds making noises on opponents shots, on their second serves, and just overall drunken behavior. It’s not classy, but it’s there. Here, luckily, there won’t be any of that. Well, there will, but it’ll be equal opportunity.

Tiafoe would generally have the biggest serve forehand combo in any match he’s in, but he might be outmatched here. Ben Shelton has packed on a lot of muscle during the course of this season, and it is paying dividends with his service delivery. Against Tommy Paul his serve was nearly unplayable. He played two or three loose games at the end of the third set, but he reset quickly. Tommy didn’t play his best tennis, but constantly being behind in the scoreline and having Shelton hold so quickly made every rally a must-win for Paul. He played a little bit conservative at times, and Shelton in a good rhythm felt free to really swing for the fences.

Despite starting to seem like a servebot, Shelton is very good in the rally. His backhand is not a big weapon, but it’s pretty stable. The best improvement he’s made this season is his play at net, and he constantly made the right choice when he approached. It’s not just about technical skill and high percentage choices, you need intuition and you have to guess correct a good chunk of the time. This requires a good mind for the game and a good ability to read the opponent. So far, I’m really loving Shelton’s decision-making out there.

This next match feels even in terms of offensive ability, because Tiafoe has a cannon for a right arm and a very quick forehand. Both are reliable but not dangerous on their backhand wings, and both throw in the occasional 15-40 service game after a few over-aggressive choices. Heat checks, if you will. It’ll likely be a close match involving some tiebreakers, but I think part of the equation is stamina. Tiafoe tends to get better as a match drags on because he’s so physically strong, and we haven’t seen Shelton in a marathon recently. It’s a question-mark more than a problem, because despite Tiafoe feeling like the bigger name and the more experienced player, Shelton beating Tommy Paul is right around the level he needs to do the same to Tiafoe.

Tiafoe was solid in his last match, ending the heroic run of Rinky Hijikata in a fairly straightforward 3 sets. Since Tiafoe hasn’t really been tested yet, this is a huge match. Obviously the Grand Slam quarterfinals is important, but Shelton being the next big thing means wins against him count a little more for the time being. The US squad seems to be very supportive of each other, but with Tiafoe and Paul starting to break into the top tier they’ll want to get their chances at major titles while they feel it’s their time. I could see Tiafoe winning a long match, but Shelton’s serving is a really big factor here and he’s already run through a much tougher draw than Tiafoe. Tiafoe has shown a great ability to deal with and reflect pace in the past as evidenced by his solid performances against Alcaraz and Sinner, but Shelton isn’t really about big baseline hitting as much as he is a serve +1 in the style of Sampras or Ivanesevic. I’m excited for this, and I think Shelton’s run continues in 4, or he gets outlasted in 5. Is two picks a copout? Yes, yes it is.

Fritz vs Djokovic

Well, Fritz has finally gotten some respect. Djokovic is just -625 for this match, which is the books admitting that Djokovic will win, but Fritz will be competitive. When Djokovic goes down into the -540 and below territory (he’s lost two finals at this price), you know he actually is in danger. The market for these big players is absurdly inflated, but in a way they are that good. Djokovic wins up in horrific spots, and pulls through. In fact, Fritz is one of the players he’s done that against. Fritz and Djokovic have played 5 times, and the only time Fritz was able to win sets against him was in the 2021 Australian Open match where Djokovic first reported that abdominal issue. Djokovic seemed completely unable to move or stretch, then after a 15-20 minute break off-court while the curfew was enforced, he came back out and played fine.

So for Fritz, this is a freeroll. There are no expectations, and working in his favor is the fact that he has never played better tennis than he has this week. He’s been the most active player in this hardcourt swing, and he’s fresh after winning all his matches last week in straight sets. Additionally, he met Djokovic in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati and only won 4 games across two sets. Well, he only won 4 games across one sets because he got zipped in the first. It’s his best level, and his home slam, against a guy who he really doesn’t have a great way to score on. Fritz has a huge serve, but it isn’t really unreturnable. It’s an easy and repeatable motion that gets good height. He tends to get forward into the court off most first-serve returns, and from there his forehand has a lot of spin and it’s tough for opponents to really create depth. Djokovic negates all of this. He’s the best returner on tour, and his yoga background and core-work coupled with his experience mean that he can contort in the right angles to play the ball into difficult spots from tough spots on the court.

Djokovic looked a bit beatable against Djere, so I would expect this not to be a straight set scenario. Unfortunately, Novak went back to his robotic self against Borna Gojo. Gojo was up a break twice in this match, but he just couldn’t hang on. From the aerial view, it looks like Djokovic isn’t even hitting the ball that hard, but his opponents miss. It’s a testament to how good he is that he plays his shots with less than 100% pace, because he’s sure they’re going to land where he wants and the additional time to reset and move to the next position is worth more than the extra pace. He knows he’s going to get there, and he knows if he keeps moving the ball that his opponents have to deviate from their normal game.

There just aren’t too many guys on tour who can redline for 3 whole sets, and if there are Djokovic sets in between them, that equation gets even tougher. Fritz could win a set, and if he keeps making progress these matches will remain exciting questions, but I don’t think he can score without help from Djokovic and if he’s playing steady it’s likely he’ll play Novak into form. Djokovic feels like AI that just learns your game and starts appearing in the right spot over and over. Djokovic in 4.

Women’s Singles

Cirstea vs Muchova

Lovely win for Cirstea. Bencic looked throughout this match like she would take over the moment Cirstea’s level dropped. She was angry-hitting the ball, but she was lacing winners while doing so. When the trailing player is fired up like that, it feels like a third set is inevitable, but Sorana’s level never dropped. It’s her second huge win, and her first quarterfinals in 14 years, which feels crazy. Her next match isn’t unwinnable either, as Muchova has played to the level of her opponent in a handful of spots this week. Muchova just beat her in a close 7-5, 6-4 match in Montreal, but Cirstea won against her in Miami which is the same surface as the US Open.

Muchova looked to be comfortable agains Wang, but Xinyu’s forehand started to have a big impact on the match. Muchova doesn’t seem to defend that well to her forehand wing, and she’s more liable to go to the open-face slice when she’s dragged wide. If Cirstea’s team is watching, they’ll have noted this. The defensive prowess is the key here for Karolina to win, because so far Cirstea has played players that are trying to trade equally from the baseline. Rybakina hangs in there because she usually is the bigger hitter, and because she’s a bit too tall to be running lateral sprints over and over. Bencic is excellent at taking the ball quickly, so she hangs at the baseline. Cirstea hit bigger than them and was more consistent, so she won. Muchova will utilize more slices, and more height. If Cirstea is able to get the first set, she’ll have to beat a more Kasatkina style player in the second. It’s not that she can’t, but it’s a fresh look and Muchova winning the close sets in their last meeting means she has the ability to outlast her.

The usual Cirstea losses come via errors. She’ll miss a few forehands low, or she’ll go too big on her backhand down the line. This week, those haven’t really been there. 50% first serves was good enough against Bencic, but she’ll need to get closer to 60 to beat Muchova, simply because she’s a less aggressive returner than Bencic. Cirstea will have to play more balls to win this match, and I suspect that Muchova having won their previous meeting may make it slightly harder to go uphill if Cirstea loses the lead. Expecting a very close match given Cirstea’s level, but Muchova in 3.

Ostapenko vs Gauff

Watching on mute, I always think the umpire called something when Ostapenko hits a winner. The ball comes back, she rips at it, and her opponent doesn’t even move as it goes zinging through the court. It has to be very frustrating to play an opponent who is just constantly trying to rip everything, and gradually see them finding form. This was the case for Iga Swiatek Saturday night, as she was on the receiving end of one of the best matches Ostapenko has ever played. Early on it looked like Swiatek was ready to trade, but when Jelena was able to hit a good forehand Iga would occasionally shank one. Her serve was landing at a good clip (62% for the match), but Ostapenko was getting a lot of returns in play in the 2nd and 3rd sets. I guess the story is that when Ostapenko plays like that, no one can beat her.

Seeing Swiatek down 5-0 in a third set is pretty much unseen on tour, but Jelena served well and just seemed to be the player coming up with one extra shot at the end of long rallies. Next is a match that would seem like Gauff’s to lose, had Ostapenko not just beaten her in Australia earlier this year. Since it was 7-5, 6-3, and Gauff has reached a new level this week, I’d expect a fairly even clash. The problem with predicting Ostapenko matches is that it’s hard to gauge when she’ll find her best level, but it’s been there this week. Swiatek didn’t play bad at all, although once things got out of hand she seemed to not want to transition to a slower more slice-heavy game to try to throw Jelena off. It’s hard to make that change on court when your best play is usually fast-paced forehands and offensive backhands, so I get it. Gauff is a bit less inclined to go big than Swiatek, so Ostapenko keeping her 1st serve percentage at 65% again would be a big gift.

Gauff had another 3-set match in the last round, dropping a set to Wozniacki but never really seeming like she’s in danger. It’s a bit of a concern that she’s dropping these sets, but her opponents can’t really score on her so once the freedom of a fresh set arrives, she seems to reset and overwhelm them with big-hitting and exceptional defense. Gauff is basically built to frustrate and beat Ostapenko, but the lapses and struggles she had against Mertens and Woz will cost her the match. Gauff’s best tennis will absolutely win her a major, but she still doesn’t look completely comfortable on court. Jelena has shown that she gets in a groove and stays in it, so this is really one of the best quarterfinals matches you could see once Swiatek vacates this section of the draw. Expecting fireworks, and a third set that’s won by the more resilient player. Offense vs defense, I’m leaning offense. Ostapenko in 3.