2023 US Open Men's Semifinals 🐢

ATP Singles

Alcaraz vs Medvedev

6:00AM.

Alcaraz opens his eyes.

There is no alarm clock, as he was only pretending to sleep. He reaches up and adjusts his Santa hat.

“It is Christmas!” he announces to Juan Carlos Ferrero with a fist-pump.

“It is not Christmas, Carlitos,” mumbles JCF.

“Every day of tennis is Christmas for me!” declares Alcaraz, as he catapults out of bed and begins swinging his racquet, which he slept with.

“Can I bring The Hulk to the match?” asks Carlos, nodding to his pet kitten, who is sleeping in a tiny sleeveless shirt next to a tiny tennis racquet.

“No Carlitos,” mumbles JCF, “they don’t allow pets.”

“Ok!” shouts Carlos, before winking at the Hulk and tucking her gently into his racquet bag.

“Today I am going to play five sets!” declares Carlos, while JCF begins eating a muffin.

“No, Carlitos, we want to win quickly, you can play more tennis in the finals,” says JCF.

“Ok!” says Alcaraz, while dropshotting the muffin out of Juan’s hand. Juan goes to protest, but it is too late. Alcaraz has already bounded out of the room headed towards the practice courts.

6:00AM.

Medvedev blinks.

“Not today, Baldur,” he insists, as he whacks away at a moon elf on the screen.

“Did you even sleep?” asks Daria.

“He never sleeps!” interrupts Gilles, who is furiously flipping through a game guide.

“Yeah, yeah, yeah,” says Daniil. “Less chatting more finding me how to beat stupid dragons.” Gilles sighs and goes back to flipping.

“The semifinals of the US Open is important, Daniil, we really should go practice.” insists Gilles.

“Relax, guys, I always beat Rublev,” Medvedev reminds him, while clobbering a magical space dwarf.

“That was two days ago, Daniil, you play Alcaraz today” insists Gilles.

“Oh fuck … ” Medvedev pauses. Did he remember to save the game after he collected the Wyrm sword? Hmm. No probably not, best to head back and beat the boss again.

How do I get these behind the scenes sneak peaks at player prep? The answer is simple. Hidden cameras! Creepy and reliable. If you’re wondering, Medvedev did defeat the dragons, but now he has a much tougher task. Djokovic is projected to be a favorite against Alcaraz in the finals, but how anyone is going to beat the kid is starting to become a big question. In the quarterfinals, Zverev played a very solid match. He served well, and he hit his groundstrokes almost as big as his opponent. The announcers seemed to insist that Alcaraz was struggling, and having a bad day, and was in all sorts of trouble. While they worried about his level, Alcaraz beat Zverev 6-3, 6-2, 6-4.

The third set was the closest, and some books actually floated Alcaraz at just -180 to win a potential 4th set, but Alcaraz instantly broke when he needed to at 4-4. He did the same in the first set. It’s like watching a switch flip, and he gets out of the traditional patterns and just moves strongly to where the ball is going. His hands are great, and his ability to redirect winners off of Zverev’s delivery is a scary thing to see him develop. The sky is the limit for Alcaraz, but he’s already hanging around with the clouds. It was a good performance from Zverev, but he should have won a set. He had a number of 30-30 and 30-40 situations where Alcaraz was under pressure, and Sasha missed rally balls. Obviously, he was trying to put the ball in play, but those are big swings of momentum and having numerous break opportunities and not seeing them materialize can make the finish line look a long way off.

Something to watch in this next round is the amount that Alcaraz was sweating. He asked the umpire early for something to help keep his hands dry, and was given sawdust. He didn’t stop playing, but the level of saturation on his gear made things a bit tough on him, and there were some that pointed out some minor hand-soreness or cramps, which can be a product of trying to grip the racquet harder when things are getting slippery. Alcaraz is a great athlete with top-tier physical prep, but anyone who’s dealt with cramping in the past is someone you want to keep an eye on in these conditions.

Alcaraz had a pretty close match, but with a lopsided score. Medvedev had a safer situation, with a much closer scoreline. Daniil and Andrey renewed their rivalry, but this one played out the same as it always has. Rublev is doing more work on average to win points. He’s taking bigger swings and expending more energy, and it’s hard to knock Medvedev over. When Medvedev creates a sharp angle, or comes to net, it just feels like he’s cheating because Rublev doesn’t have these weapons. Medvedev’s serve also proves to be a big factor, as he gets some quick points when he needs to.

Overall, Rublev is right there to beat Medvedev, but he allows Daniil to play in his comfort zone. Baez and De Minaur both had success in coming to net. It’s not that they hit great shots, but the different look can rush Medvedev. He has great passing shots, but if he’s running while you’re approaching, you can often get a read on where he’s going, or he can miss. A lot of good things happen when you get forward. If you look at the styles with the lead also, you can see Medvedev being able to execute dropshots and come to net is a big boost. Rublev had a break lead in each set, but he was broken back in tough baseline rallies where Medvedev just outlasted him. When Medvedev got up, he took chances and went for big shots, and the rushed pace paid dividends since Rublev was trying to make sure he got into each point.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev is a similar situation to Rublev vs Medvedev. Alcaraz just seems to have way more avenues to score points, and it’s hard for Medvedev to end rallies. Daniil’s deep return position leaves him open for serve-volley, but the serve and dropshot route that Alcaraz takes can be really exhausting over time. Medvedev was playing fine, but he was visibly frustrated with the humid conditions, telling the camera at one point that “somebody is going to die and they’re doing to see it”. A bit dramatic, but at that point I sort of felt like it would be good for the umpire to step in and remind him it’s just a game. The heat can defeat anyone, and there’s no shame in tapping out if you really are feeling that bad. If Rublev is getting you to that point, odds are Alcaraz will too. Alcaraz serves more effectively than Rublev, and has way more variation on the backhand. It’s just a really tough puzzle to solve.

It’s not about me, but when I get up against a player who has everything, there is a bit of a freedom that comes with it. There no longer is a set strategy you need to stick to, or regret about not sending one more to Dimitrov’s weak backhand or Zverev’s uncertain forehand. You can just ball, because the right shot is going to work way more than any singular strategy. Speaking of singular strategies, I thought it was great how in the last return game Alcaraz made it extremely obvious that he was forcing every ball to Zverev’s forehand, because prior to this it had been a stable and effective shot. Once it became the target, the mechanics fell apart.

A lot of people are pointing to Indian Wells as an indication of how this will go, but Indian Wells is the slowest surface on tour by far. Before that finals, Alcaraz being the only one who’d be able to hit through the court was a given. Medvedev had already suffered an ankle injury, had cut his thumb in the previous round, and was pretty beat up. Indian Wells is almost clay-like in terms of speed, and besides the boosted conditions for Alcaraz, Medvedev actively disliked the playing conditions and had mentioned this in press. If you’re in your head about not liking a surface, your results are going to suffer, and this is evident by Medvedev’s clay results over time. He only decided to play it semi-seriously this year, and instantly he started winning matches.

I don’t think Medvedev can win outright, but his hitting is more effective here. He’s had some double fault issues which will likely continue, but he’s hitting some very sharp angles with his backhand. A big difference here also is that his shots have solid length to them. He left a lot short in the court at Indian Wells and they sat up. Here the ball moves through the court a bit more, but Medvedev is also hitting his backhand with decent depth. Alcaraz should wear him down over time, but if Medvedev gets into the same favorable positions in return games that Zverev did, he’s not going to give up the cheap errors that Zverev did. Alcaraz also has been a bit freer with his shot selection in the past few weeks, and there are more unforced errors in his game than usual. Medvedev hasn’t won a set yet, but I think he will here before Alcaraz pulls away. The issue of being able to hit through Alcaraz is still there, but these are way more favorable conditions for Medvedev than Indian Wells. Alcaraz in 4.

Shelton vs Djokovic

6:00AM

Ben Shelton opens his eyes, one at a time.

He peeks around the room, counting his arms, then his legs. He touches his hair tentatively. It’s all still there.

“Heck yeah”

The past two weeks have again proved to be not a dream. Ben Shelton has been going big, and it has been paying off.

He heads to the kitchen, and throws several eggs at a frying pan. Some of them miss. Some more of them miss. All of them miss.

“That’s how breakfast goes sometime,” he announces, before lobbing several towels at the situation from the next room.

Ben heads down to the lobby of the hotel. In the elevator, there is a man with a dog. He high fives the dog, before doing a spin move while exiting the elevator. In the lobby there is a small baby sitting in a carriage. “Hey baby,” says Shelton, while pointing inspirationally at the baby “You can do it”. The baby is inspired. The baby knows what is up. He heads towards the door. It’s a revolving one. Shelton nods approvingly. “Sweet spin moves,” he offers. I continue following him. I get stuck in the revolving door and clatter around. At this point he notices me following him. “You good, bro?” he asks. I nod. “You can do it, bro” he says. I am overcome with inspiration. I pass out. I wake up hours later. He has signed my arm, and left me two signed pictures of Super Mario, who he somehow met. I never wash the arm again. It falls off. It doesn’t matter. That’s how breakfast goes sometime. Go Ben Shelton.

6:00AM

Djokovic’s 4th chakra awakens. Now all 114 are awake, which technically powers the sun. You’re welcome. Novak looks around. All is calm, all is quiet. His head is a perfect oval. Things are good in the Djokovic house. Just then he hears a clatter. Goran bursts into the room. “Did you know Octopus have nine brains?” he asks. “Yes, Goran,” replies Novak. “Wow!” says Goran, his friend Novak is so smart. Djokovic slowly levitates out of bed, floating over to a yoga mat. It is upside down on the ceiling, but that is where the best oxygen is. “Were you doing yoga this morning?” asks Djokovic, noticing drawings of octopus on the mat. “Nuh uh,” says Goran, before scurrying out of the room. Djokovic sighs, and looks back at the drawings. Two of the octopuses are holding hands, with the names “Goran & his best pal Djoktopus” written above them.

If those deep insights into player routines don’t give you an idea of who is going to win, perhaps the -2000 pricetag attached to Djokovic will. At this point, the odds are well beyond any computer or ELO model for the match, but Djokovic is really that good, and Shelton has cleared out any more reliable contenders. It might be for the best, as an explosive offense seems to be the only thing that can score on Novak at this point. He’s had a relative cakewalk of a draw. Gojo and Vesely upset a few big names for him, and Fritz and Stricker managed to clear out the other section.

Fritz was in good form, but it is pretty clear that he can’t score on Djokovic. Against lower tier players, Taylor looks pretty effective. He’s stable enough from the baseline to hang in there, and then his serve nets him quick points so he’s a tough out. His shot selection though, is nothing that will score on Djokovic. He almost seems like a servebot who elects to push most of the time, so Novak didn’t really have pressure to miss like he did against Djere or even Gojo who was looking to move the ball aggressively. Fritz reverted back to box complaining a bit in this one, but it really was tough to watch at times so it had to have felt hopeless out there. Fritz went for a few big shots and missed, and to be honest I think his team will urge him to go bigger earlier for the rest of the season. To trade with Djokovic you need to be hitting pretty aggressive shots on every ball, so if changing direction down the line is a big risk for you, you’re sunk.

Fritz and Tiafoe both fell victim to playing a bit too conservative, but I think Tiafoe’s approach made a little more sense. In his highly-anticipated clash with Shelton, he was a slight favorite. They both have huge serves, but early on it was clear Tiafoe’s delivery was not there. He was below 50% first serves landed early in the match against Hijikata, and he hovered around there in this one as well. The reliable T serve didn’t land, and he was a bit fortunate as Shelton also struggled to find the same delivery he did against Tommy Paul. Shelton won the first and had an early lead, but it felt like Tiafoe was more willing to hang in rallies. Tiafoe was also putting a ton of returns in play, which led to some unforced errors on Shelton’s part. He’s got a lot of promise, but he still plays one of those random Raonic games every set or so where he just makes 3 quick offensive errors.

The match got level at one set apiece, and it almost seemed like Tiafoe would pull away just on physical stamina and experience. When Shelton double faulted twice in a row from 6-5 in the tiebreaker, it felt like Tiafoe was going to pull away, but he struggled to land first serves, and Shelton hit what was likely a career-defining forehand at 5-6. Tiafoe rolled in a second serve, and Shelton ran around his backhand and hit a forehand down the line that I think everyone including him thought would go out. It’s just so rare that you see the giant over-aggressive swing actually land in the court, but that’s the kind of offense Shelton regularly goes for and frequently hits. Tiafoe seemed flat in the fourth, and it’s understandable as the third was gifted to him and he couldn’t close out.

For Shelton, there isn’t a lot of pressure against Djokovic. It’s their first meeting, and Shelton’s expectations are 0. It doesn’t mean he has no goals here or belief, but it means that if he gets 1,2,2 it wouldn’t be likely to affect his attitude out there. This is a good thing for him. Shelton is pretty positive anyway, and really realistic about his game-style. I usually complain about familial coaching relationships, but you can see that there is a really strong bond between Ben and his parents and his dad is pretty calm in the box and pretty open with his son. I kinda love it.

I expect the best from Shelton here, but I think he will start to feel like he has to redline to score, and this will lead to errors. He has a good backhand and a powerful forehand, but Djokovic doesn’t exactly end rallies once he gets you into them. He’s content to move you around and wait for errors, and the pace of these exchanges can wear on your legs very quickly. I think Shelton will be positive here, but there is always a bit of an adrenaline dump in any new territory in life. Going to a party, going on a date, making your first semifinals, etc. You’re just going to be a bit nervous, and after that dump it’s natural to feel a bit flat. His team should prep him to compartmentalize this. Play each game as a separate match, and keep seeing how you do. Djokovic’s slumps are wildly unpredictable, but his level has varied mid-match in the past and Shelton at least has a big serve/forehand combo to score if this happens.

I expect a much closer and more competitive match than Fritz offered, simply because Shelton hits to smaller targets, and has a more complete game on offense than Fritz. I do think Djokovic will be able to return a similar (and likely a greater) amount of serves to Tiafoe though, and he puts the ball in tougher spots. Tiafoe also was in pole position in that third set, and seemed to lose his legs a bit. This won’t happen to Novak, and it’s important to remember that he’s not just a defensive test. Djokovic can and will serve better than Tiafoe did, so Shelton’s returning will need to be solid. Tiafoe also ran out of ideas in some rallies, and largely just hit to Shelton’s backhand looking for errors as the match dragged on. Djokovic will spread the ball evenly and him holding his swing means Shelton has to recover to the center of the court more often which is fatiguing. Honestly, it looks like we’re going to get the Alcaraz Djokovic matchup that we’ve been hoping for since Wimbledon. Shelton can perhaps win a set, but that would be a victory on its own. He has the potential and game to be competitive in matches like this, but not yet the consistency. Djokovic in 3-4.