2023 US Open Men's Round One 🐢

Alcaraz vs Koepfer

Alcaraz has looked pretty bad the past few weeks, and yet he’s made the quarterfinals in Toronto and finals in Cincinnati, losing to Tommy Paul and Novak Djokovic. The hangover from Wimbledon appears to be real, but Alcaraz is so good that it hasn’t mattered. His play has been infused with a lovely impatience and a willingness to go for any shot at any time. When he’s finally down a set or a set and a break, he manages to turn it up and win in an inevitable three. It reminds me a bit of Swiatek, but she’s out there with full commitment the entire match and Carlos just seems to be enjoying himself until he realizes that the match is about to end.

In the Cincinnati finals, we saw probably his best tennis for the past month, and it was almost enough to sneak past Djokovic. The question if they meet again in the finals here is purely about stamina. Djokovic can beat Alcaraz, but does he have another 2-3 hours of the tennis he displayed in Cincinnati? With slightly cooler conditions (looks like 75-80 degrees most of the fortnight) and courts with the same speed as Miami it could be very tough for these guys to hit through each other, but from my time at the qualifiers it looks like the players who can generate their own power are benefitting a bit from being able to swing full without the ball flying long. There’ve been complaints of the balls being a bit light and flying on some players, but this is stuff that a guy like Alcaraz is going to have ironed out by the time he gets to a final.

Koepfer is a tricky first round for a few reasons. One, Alcaraz hasn’t been playing with a great sense of urgency. This is a little tough to shake off even if you decide it’s time to ball. We might see some uncharacteristic errors early in the match. Two, Alcaraz has struggled a little bit against left-handed players. It hasn’t resulted in outright losses, but he mixes up his backhand location when facing them and his backhand down the line tends to clip the tape a decent chunk of the time. It’s the number one unforced error that’s been haunting him so far this hardcourt season. Three, Koepfer is really solid and quick. He’s good at the cat and mouse game, doesn’t really give up, and he’s been pretty active lately with some wins on the Challenger level. Should be a fun opener and a good look at Carlito’s focus level. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Harris vs Pella

Good match here and a tough one to call. Pella is a really solid lefty and is unlikely to give up here, but he hasn’t played a hardcourt match yet. When guys don’t compete leading up to a major, the possibility that they’re less than 100% and just picking up a check becomes greater ($81,500 for losing first round). Assuming Pella is healthy, this should take a long time. Pella can’t hit his way out of rallies because he doesn’t have a ton of variety, and because Harris is a bit of a wall when he’s playing well. He has good speed and he plays a bit behind the baseline. When he’s winning, it’s basically because his serve is working. He has a heavy forehand but doesn’t create big angles and is generally content to just hit over the low part of the net and outlast his opponents.

Harris starts out as the favorite here simply because he’s been active. He’s lost a few and won a few, but the win over Cazaux stands out because Arthur has been playing really well (got the chance to see him in person on Thursday and he was serving really big). Harris has slightly more offense and a similar defense, but his level is also more inconsistent. If Harris is at his best, he wins here, but Pella will make it difficult. Harris in 4-5.

Van De Zandschulp vs Thompson

If I’d been stuck in a time capsule for the past year, I’d expect Van De Zandschulp to roll here. I escaped though, so Botic’s slump is well documented. Last week he made Omni Kumar’s tour dreams come true, peppering the court with a number of errors. I don’t mind mistakes, but Botic seemed to be struggling with Kumar’s slice to the point that you could see him slowing down his swing and just looking to not miss. Those kind of issues are with confidence and it’s hard to kick those against a tenacious player like Thompson. Jordan has always been a 100-110 ranked kinda guy. He’ll win when his opponent is in poor form, and he’ll struggle against anyone with more power. This season though, he has served better than he ever has, and he’s been notching a lot of wins. It feels like Botic’s best level will get him to the finish line here, but that’s something we haven’t really seen. Add in that he had a tendency to swap sets even when he was winning, and Thompson should get through here. Thompson in 4.

Galan vs Evans

Evans sitting at 28 in the rankings is pretty wild considering some of the performances he’s turned in this year. Even more unexpected was his random title win in Washington. Dan Evans has all the skill and some of the effort. When things are going bad he’s very involved with his box and tends to take himself out of the match. He still plays but that internal dialogue is an unproductive place to spend your time. The real issue is that your opponent gets infused with a ton of belief and they focus on the match more. Even if they’re overly concentrating on Evans, it still brings them into a strategic mindset and keeps them in the present moment which is where tennis tends to be played. The Washington title makes him a favorite here against Galan, who is mostly a surprise winner on hardcourt, but this could be close. Galan is fast, hits very flat which works on these courts, and for a clay-court specialist his hardcourt ability is solid. Evans will need to serve well to avoid the upset here, and while I think he gets there he’s too unreliable to really be sure of in the first round. Tennis landscapes can change wildly after the first round, and different playing conditions, health issues, and personal life events and attitudes can really make these players look different from week to week. Evans in 4.

Griekspoor vs Fils

Arthur Fils has solidified his place on the tour, but the draws matter a lot in tennis, and this is a bad one. Fils has a lot of power and speed but he tends to win against slightly weaker players and guys who make errors. Griekspoor is one of the more solid guys on tour as far as contact and his mechanics are unique but effective. He also has been playing well lately and made the finals in Washington. Their recent matches include a handful of losses for both, and I think Griekspoor is just a bit more able to play his top level for longer stretches than Fils. Griekspoor in 4-5.

Arnaldi vs Kubler

Kubler narrowly lost to Nakashima last week, and this is another similar challenge. Matteo Arnaldi has an overwhelming baseline game but there’s nothing he’s going to hit you off the court with. His serve is solid but most are returnable. He has great dropshots but Kubler’s fitness is usually excellent so this won’t be a great long-term tactic in the match. Arnaldi just lost to Moutet in the last event in Cincinnati which isn’t bad but isn’t great. This is really dead-even for me but I think Arnaldi is slightly more aggressive about his game and his backhand might be a little better. Arnaldi in 5.

Kokkinakis vs

Shevchenko vs Norrie

Rare to see Norrie coming in after two first round losses, but De Minaur and Monfils were able to outwork him. This season, Cam’s offense hasn’t really been as powerful as last year, and it means that guys like Gael and Alex have a slight edge on him since they’re able to produce the same level of defending but they both have fairly reliable ways to score (Monfils’ serve and De Minaur’s forehand). Here Norrie has a winnable match against Shevchenko, who has a huge offense but isn’t really the most consistent player right now. It’ll most likely be the classic Norrie situation, where he looks a bit off early in the match but is able to drag his opponent into long rallies as things progress. That can really take the legs from someone and this should impact Shevchenko’s serve. It’s not unthinkable for Shevchenko to win since he’s beaten similar caliber baseliners in Schwartzman and Fucsovics, but Norrie across 3 sets should see him get back to his best level, and these are decent conditions for him. Norrie in 4.

Zverev vs Vukic

Vukic is having a great season, and it gives him a puncher’s chance here. The classic Zverev letdown would allow Vukic to win, but post-ankle injury Alex has seemed a bit more focused on getting back to the top of tennis. His forehand is still capped as far as effectiveness and shot creation, but he’s hitting it hard enough. His serve is still producing double faults, but he’s not reacting as much to them and since he’s winning matches and making progress, he seems focused. Vukic also has a big serve but Zverev’s height makes him a decent returner. Vukic is one of the steadier baseliners I’ve seen considering his gamestyle is big serve big power, but it feels like he’s playing a larger version of himself here with a much better backhand. Zverev in 4-5.

Altmaier vs Lestienne

I can’t sleep on Altmaier at majors, even if hardcourt isn’t his best surface. Lestienne has found his form again in the past weeks, just enough to give him around an even chance here. For me, Altmaier has the more complete game, and Lestienne will need to play well in the big moments to get to a 5th. Altmaier’s serve has been pretty effective this year, and he’s very quick and his one-handed backhand has improved a good bit. A loss to Moutet and Popyrin isn’t ideal heading into this, but that’s a slightly better caliber of opponent than Lestienne has been facing, even though he won the Challenger in Stanford. Not really a clear spot, but Altmaier in 5.

Murray vs Moutet

Andy Murray actually seems to be covering the court well against. That, coupled with his backhand being rock-solid, mean that this is a match he should win. Moutet plays a zany game, but his main patterns are the normal lefty forehand into his opponent’s backhand corner. I think at times he will expose Murray’s slightly diminished speed since Moutet has a lot of variety and dropshots in his approach, but Murray is very efficient when he does get to the ball, and him having a strong two-hander and an excellent slice should make Moutet force the issue a bit too often. Not sure how long it will take to get there, and it’ll definitely be one of the more entertaining first rounders, but Murray should have this. Murray in 4.

Molcan vs Dimitrov

Reliable 2023 Grigor has appeared, and I hate it. He’s almost winning the matches he’s supposed to, and it means that for once, a plucky and resilient baseliner isn’t a good pick to win against him. Molcan has played more clay this season, and has gone back down to the Challenger to maintain his ranking, but I’m not entirely sure what the issue is that’s holding him back. He has a huge forehand, and a decent serve. He’s very fast, and despite cramping issues he has won some marathon matches at times. The results aren’t there though, and a loss to Dino Prizmic (🦖🦖🦖) means that Dimitrov likely wins here. For Grigor, his best tennis still makes him look like a top 20 player, but when he faces a top 20 player, he folds up in a manner that’s hard to watch. Hopefully he hangs in there in round two against Murray, but Dimitrov has somehow become a bisector of the tour where the results are dictated largely by rank. Dimitrov in 3-4.

Etcheverry vs

Wawrinka vs Nishioka

These two players with entirely different styles feel very similar to me right now. Wawrinka is a powerful legend whose main issues now are stamina and desire. When he plays well, he can win a set against anyone. When he gets tired, he throws in random service games strewn with errors that can cost him those matches. Nishioka is a young player with a lot of good wins whose main attribute is stamina and defense. His lefty patterns are frustrating for opponents and his speed is top tier. Despite all this, Yoshihito gets easily frustrated and throws away matches due to poor luck or stretches of play that I don’t are gone yet. The similarity for me is that they can win any match, but you won’t know it’s coming until they’re a set or more into the affair. Nishioka has an excellent youtube channel where he discusses tennis, and his insights tell me he’s a pretty sharp guy. The channel is only in Japanese by the way, but don’t let not understanding anything he says stop you. I didn’t let it stop me.

Wawrinka should win here, because the slower conditions mean that Nishioka’s flat backhand may not be as effective. It also means that Stan shouldn’t become a swamp monster due to sweat and fatigue. The colder air should let Wawrinka serve big without worrying about the ball sailing, and Nishioka has been struggling to find wins while Stan has been inching towards his best tennis of the season. Despite all that, Nishioka is still a dangerous opponent, because it’s the ⅗ format. I worry that Wawrinka can probably only win 2 sets in a row, so this should have some intrigue. Wawrinka in 4.

Sonego vs

Hanfmann vs Sinner

The Sinner vs Alcaraz matchup looks fairly likely here. Hanfmann has been winning matches on clay all year that he’s not technically supposed to, but that run hasn’t carried over the hardcourt. Similar to Jarry, he’s just a tiny step too slow for hardcourt. Slower courts here give him a chance, but this is a bad matchup for him. Sinner is a really good returner, and he’s able to move the ball well. Jannik can somehow remain in the crosscourt patterns but still force errors from his opponents, so this matchup (for him at least) is just a matter of patience and putting in the footwork to make Hanfmann force things. Since Yannick is a tremendous server, and because he has a solid backhand, this could involve some close sets. It being a first round also, Sinner may not be at his best. It isn’t so much that he’ll be less focused, but the first round sees everyone fresh and playing at near their max-capacity speed during rallies and on serve, so it’s just tough to really impose yourself in the early-goings. Sinner in 3-4.

Medvedev vs Balasz

Octopus vs Balasztopus. These are the two funkiest games in the draw. Balasz has to be running out of Protected ranking spots to use, and unfortunately this is unwinnable for him. Medvedev in 3.

Purcell vs O’Connell

Purcell has crossed over into favorite territory. He really acquitted himself well in the North American swing, notching 11 wins including guys like Griekspoor, Wawrinka, Ruud, Auger-Alliassime, and even Schnur. Not impressed? Go play Schnur and see if you don’t get Schnur’d up. His serving seems to be the driving factor in his game, but all his time grinding on the doubles tour has gotten his baseline game much better. He was always a 100-150 range guy coming up but like many before him, putting in the work to play a lot of tennis has given his game that extra boost. Playing a compatriot in O’Connell can be tricky, and the pressure of being favored is never easy, but Purcell did beat him in straights in their previous meeting in 2020, and O’Connell hasn’t been doing much so far this year. Expecting the Purcell run to continue, but my analysis of O’Connell’s game is that his level can vary along a huge spectrum so this could get interesting. Purcell in 3-4.

Nishikori vs

Baez vs Coric

Hmm. If I wait a few hours I’ll have the answer to this question. Baez and Coric are set to play in the semifinals of Winston-Salem as I’m writing this, and both have found pretty solid form this week. I think they have very similar approaches and use their assets well in making them work. Baez looks to overwhelm his opponent with consistency. He has a very stable backhand, and when he’s playing well he hits his forehand inside-out and cross-court fairly well so he’s able to utilize dropshots as well anytime he gets inside the baseline. Coric is a less varied approach, but he has a bigger serve. He’s all about grinding down his opponent and minimizing errors. His backhand is solid but doesn’t score much, and his forehand can lose the plot but it’s the heavier shot in big moments. This should be a long match, and I think the only clear edge for me is that Coric has a big serve (occasionally). When he’s serving well, he looks like a top tier player, and the rest of the time he’s Marton Fucsovics. Here I think he should win, but obviously a big win by Baez today would cast doubts on that. I don’t think there’s a quick way past Baez in good form, but Borna has a little more hardcourt offense. Coric in 4-5.

Jarry vs Van Assche

Luca Van Assche has a lot of hype surrounding his game, but he’s starting to remind me a bit of De Minaur. He looks so incredibly dynamic out there when he’s playing well, but the output that he’s, well, putting out is more than his opponents because he’s not the biggest guy or the hardest hitter. It puts him in a tough spot here. He’ll be more consistent than Jarry in baseline rallies, but it might be hard for him to protect his own service games. Jarry can be wild, but this season he’s ironed out some of the big misses and his backhand is a lot better. I think they’ll definitely trade sets at some point, but Jarry’s tired game includes a huge cannon of a serve and I think LVA will come up a bit short. Jarry in 4.

Ramos vs Michelsen

Ramos has been fairly inactive this hardcourt swing, and he’s not really the guy this season. In past seasons, he was the guy. Right now, Michelsen appears to be the guy. Michelsen just keeps winning matches whether it’s at the Challenger level or on tour. He appeared to be the USA’s best prospect but at this point, he’s one of their best players. This is a great draw, and as long as he can get off to a good start he should win. Michelsen has a good serve, but he’s also quite skilled in the rally and similar to Brooksby, he knows which shots to employ at different times to make life tough on his opponents. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Duckworth as frustrated as when he played Michelsen. Michelsen in 3.

Wu vs Lajovic

This is another very even contest. Lajovic is playing well, and Wu is at his best in a long-format hardcourt event. The possible bonus for Wu here is that Lajovic has a one-hander, and Wu tends to hug the baseline. If Lajovic is able to redirect that power he could thrive, but Yibing’s aggression and excellent timing mean that Lajovic’s backhand could be a bit rushed. The serving battle is fairly even. Wu has a bigger first serve but Lajovic is very good at creating wide angles from the ad side since he’s such a terror on clay. There’s a good chance here for this to go 5 sets simply because both are extremely consistent but hit big also. It’ll be hard for anyone to really pull away, and if you’re on the grounds this will probably be one of the best matches to check out. Wu has been a little bit inactive so Lajovic might run away with this, but if he’s healthy, Wu in 5.

De Minaur vs

Khachanov vs Mmoh

Khachanov hasn’t played, and withdrew late from Cincinnati. There were rumors of a stomach bug going around, but the inactivity speaks to something more than that. Injury information is fairly well guarded on tour, but this is a spot where Michael Mmoh has a really good chance. Khachanov has solidified himself as a top tier player on tour, and he’s a bit of a gatekeeper for the quarterfinals at the majors. He plays to the level of his opponents in early rounds though, and him being rusty could give Mmoh a victory. This year has been Mmoh’s best. He’s always been a bit of a pusher, but he’s spreading his backhand around the court well, and hitting his forehand bigger than usual. It’s a really rigid technique, but his serving has been better as well. This is a spot where Mmoh is sharp and Khachanov is not. If Khachanov wins here, he suddenly becomes a favorite to win the next two matches, but this is a big test. Mmoh in 3-4.

Diaz Acosta vs Isner

Isner is retiring, and it brings to an end a career that would be massively impressive if he weren’t discounted as such a servebot. He has made the semifinals of majors, he has 16 titles, he holds the record for aces with 14,411, and did I mention he can dribble the ball between his legs every &^$%ing time? Isner is a guy who has carried the US on his back during a severe drought in results in the big 3 era, and it’ll be nice to see him go and sad to see him go. For this match, I think he’d be a big favorite if he were playing his normal schedule. He’s been inactive though, and when he takes the court his legs look very stiff and a bit weak. He’ll bomb his serves, but Diaz Acosta is likely to serve just well enough to get a ball to hit, and not well enough to notch aces. This means that Isner will get into rallies and it’s entirely possible that Diaz Acosta wears him down. Classic Isner match incoming here, but I think the challenger is up to the task on offense and is just rough enough on hardcourt (he’s mainly a claycourter) to wear Isner down. Diaz Acosta in 5.

Albot vs Draper

Draper is back in the injury withdrawal swing, so this is tough to really say much about. I’m not trying to be dismissive, but Jack really has been having trouble finishing a match lately despite generally leading in the scoreline when he has to withdraw. Draper will either win this or withdraw. His serve and forehand are big enough to score on Albot, and Radu is a solid competitor but he hasn’t been pulling many upsets of late. Draper in 3 or Albot via withdrawal.

Huesler vs Hurkacz

Huesler reminds me a bit of Klizan crossed with Humbert. When he’s on, his offense is good enough to score on anyone, but small errors in big moments seem to cost him. Hurkacz’s play from the baseline can vary wildly, but he played excellent in Cincinnati and should be well rested here after losing a three setter to Alcaraz. This should be decided in tiebreakers, but Hurkacz thrives in those since his height and smooth swings make him a decent returner. If Huesler wants to win he’ll have to isolate Hubert’s backhand. It’s a good wing but Hurkacz is a little too comfortable changing direction to go down the line and it’s a shot he misses a good chunk of the time. His other issue is with length; he regularly sails backhands long if he has to hit 2 or 3 in a row. Good warmup match for Hurkacz, but Hurkacz in 4.

Humbert vs Berrettini

Tough first round for both of them. Since his return, Berrettini has shown signs of his old form, but the thing missing is the reliability. He got to the top of the tour with clutch play in big moments, and it’s visible that his confidence is not really there anymore. Lacking that automatic scoring ability makes him vulnerable, and Ugo being lefty means Matteo’s backhand will get a lot of work here. This is a close and fairly unpredictable matchup, but it will still probably see a lot of investment in the betting markets for unexplainable reasons. People seem to really love a puzzle. Berrettini won their last meeting at the ATP finals, but his recent form isn’t that great. Humbert’s been playing well of late, but he has a bit of the Shapovalov/Huesler vibe where he can smoke a forehand on one shot for a clean winner, and find the tape on the next one on a routine shot. Berrettini’s serve has a decent chance of carrying him through this, but it’ll take a lot of work and I’m not entirely sure he has the stamina. Should be a great match with some amazing offense. Humbert in 5.

Schwartzman vs Rinderknech

Rinderknech and Schwartzman are both having fairly rough seasons, but have turned things around in unlikely situations. Rinderknech scored some good wins on clay at Kitzbuhel and Zug in the post-Wimbledon swing, and Diego played well in Toronto, defeating Draxl and Vukic before falling to Tommy Paul. Rinderknech won their previous meeting in 3, but given his loss to Kumar last week, Diego starts as the favorite here. Rinderknech has a great serve, and an excellent game at net. His problem is that from the baseline he’s a little bit slow and can be rallied into errors. Schwartzman is somehow a good returner, and the slower conditions at the USO should give him time to get Arthur into baseline rallies. Since Diego’s serve is fairly harmless, it shouldn’t be a straightforward win even if he does break, but Schwartzman has displayed a higher level over the past month and I think the ⅗ format gives him enough time to expose Rinderknech’s slight lack of consistency. Offense vs defense here. Diego in 4-5.

Monfils vs

Ruusuvuori vs Rublev

This is a rematch of a Cincinnati clash that saw Ruusvuori win in 3. Rublev has played some great tennis this year, but at times he’s seemed less than motivated. Ruusuvuori is a tough matchup for him because he’s extremely stable from the baseline at his best, and he moves a little better than Rublev. The serving is about even, and despite Rublev being the bigger hitter, Ruusuvuori tends to get played into form by baseliners so the defending ability comes into play. Ceiling-wise, Rublev is the clear better player, but he’ll need to elevate his game here to turn around the previous result. What I think will perhaps allow him to get through is the extended format. Rublev can wear an opponent down and Ruusuvuori’s level does tend to lapse early in matches. Honestly, this is a spot I’d have a hard time backing either. Rublev hasn’t displayed anything so far this hardcourt season to support him reversing this result (a loss to Mackie McDonald is pretty bad), but there’s a decent chance that the cooler conditions and slower conditions will make it simpler for him to win here. Rublev in 5.

Ruud vs

Wolf vs Zhang

JJ Wolf is one of the more exciting American prospects. He has a very interesting forehand, a funky mullet, and a good amount of speed. He reminds me a bit of Tommy Paul in the early years, and he’s won a handful of matches on tour that indicate he’s here to stay. Early in the hardcourt season he was hitting half-volleys and hugging the baseline in a manner that makes me think he’s been playing a lot of tennis, so this is a spot where I think he’s slightly more comfortable than Zhang. He’ll have the crowd support, and he gets a lot of curve on his serve which could present half a problem with Zhang who is tall and takes some pretty big cuts at the ball. 3-4 months ago I’d probably take Zhang here, but Wolf has looked solid and this is probably the best conditions for his game. Given Zhang’s power and serving ability, I don’t think will be straightforward, but he hasn’t quite shown the mastery on hardcourt that he has on clay. Wolf in 4-5.

Hijikata vs Kotov

Hijikata is in a pretty good place on tour, but his game isn’t complete yet. He’s shown the ability to play 1 perfect set of tennis, but maintaining that level is the next goal. Some close three setters have gone against him, so it’ll be interesting here to see how this match goes in the 3rd and 4th sets. Kotov is a pretty big serve and he has good power in rallies, but he’s only played one match on hardcourt and it was a loss to Mitchell Krueger who is not exactly tour-level. I think Hijikata will be a little more able to create opportunities in rallies because his footwork is a bit more proactive, and his serve is solid enough that he should be able to hold onto any advantages he gets in the scoreline. Kotov is a bit like a less offensive version of Karatsev, so Hijikata’s late match dropoffs could cost him a set or two. Hijikata in 4-5.

Fucsovics vs Korda

Korda just defeated Fucsovics in Winston-Salem, and the trouble with Korda’s game is generally just inactivity that leads to inconsistency and lack of stamina. When he’s playing a lot, he’s one of the better hardcourt talents on tour, so him playing a lot means he should get by here. Fucsovics is a great athlete but he doesn’t have the offense you need to really dispatch Korda. He’ll need errors, and these conditions are not tough enough to really wear down Korda in an early round. Slight alarm bells because Korda withdrew against Lehecka, but most of the seeds are going to bail early on the 250s the week before so I expect him to be fine. Korda in 3-4.

Mannarino vs Watanuki

Tricky spot here. Mannarino is an excellent hardcourt player, but he thrives on ultra-fast courts. He isn’t a big hitter, so it might be tough for him to score here from neutral in rallies. ADrian played well in Cincinnati, defeating Gasquet, FAA, and McDonald, but he opened up the season with losses against Taro Daniel and Jordan Thompson, who are right around Watanuki’s best level. Yosuke has been grinding at a lower level, but he had a good run in Stanford, defeating Duckworth and Moreno De Alboran. Watanuki has the big-hitting to beat Mannarino, but I’m not sure he can do it for an entire match. He’s a very aggressive returner, and those big cuts are tough to produce for multiple sets. The book so far on Watanuki is that he’s able to play a perfect set of tennis, but there will be a set with some unforced errors and struggles accompanying it. It seems like Mannarino will be up against it here, but he should be able to outlast Watanuki. Mannarino in 4.

Gasquet vs Maroszan

Maroszan hasn’t played a warmup match leading into this, and Gasquet has actually woken up and won a few matches in Winston-Salem. Wins against Huesler and Nakashima are good enough to indicate he should beat Maroszan, and the hero that defeated Alcaraz has mostly thrived at the challenger level since then. The talent is there but he’ll have to prove himself and Gasquet is a really tough out. Gasquet in 3-4.

Ofner vs Borges

I sorta think Borges looks like Pete Sampras, so I keep expecting him to become Pete Sampras. At times, he’s really solid and wins matches, but it seems like he has plateau’d a bit and getting beyond 70 on tour will require him to change things up or add in some Challenger events towards the end of this year. As Borges struggles to notch wins at the tour level, a guy who’s grinded the Challenger tour for years is starting to become a tour regular. Ofner has a huge serve and a heavy forehand. The amount of tennis he was playing and the big matches he played really let him sprint past some slightly burnt-out tour players when he finally got his shot, and this is a spot where he should win. Since he’s a pretty straightforward player, Borges might be able to make this close. Borges is like a light version of Ruusuvuori in that he tends to get into a very consistent rhythm and staying in cross-court patterns can often coerce opponents into forcing the issue. The problem here is that Ofner has the experience and a very effective serve, so Borges will have to hope for a dip in his level. I probably sound monotonous, but this has been some great playing weather temperature wise (Friday was a bit humid though after the storms) so I’m expecting most players to be at their best in the first round. Ofner in 4.

Tien vs Tiafoe

Learner Tien is pretty solid, but this is a big ask even if Tiafoe doesn’t exactly seem ultra-motivated. Frances is defending a lot of points here after his quarterfinal run last year that saw him play an epic 5 setter with Alcaraz, and this tournament is still his best chance to win a major. He’s very under the radar here, but if his serve starts landing he’s instantly at the top of the “guys who can’t win the tournament but won’t get upset” list. Tiafoe in 3, but he’s a great dude and he’s playing a USA junior standout so he may let this get a bit closer than you’d expect just for the entertainment value and for Tien.

Paul vs

Safiullin vs Cecchinato

Cecchinato’s hardcourt performances are starting to become predictable. He has enough power and a decent serve, but he just doesn’t win matches. Safiullin had a shocking loss to Juan Manuel Cerundolo last week from something like -1100 odds, but he’s been in decent form so far this year and he should win this in 3. Big serve, good power, and more experience and belief.

Ivashka vs Cerundolo J.M.

Cerundolo won his first few matches on tour on hardcourt last week, and it’s a welcome infusion of points for a clay-specialist who’s been somewhat stuck on the clay circuit and Challenger tour for a while now. Unlike his older brother, JM is a lefty who beats his opponents with consistency and ultra sticky defense. He’s a joy to watch, but hardcourt is a tough place to ply this craft. Ivashka has been struggling to find wins, but he has a bigger game overall here and a similar gas-tank. Ivashka isn’t exactly reliable here, but he should wrap this up in 3-4.

Giron vs Davidovich Fokina

Giron will be looking to put a straight set loss to Mmoh behind him, but this is an oof draw. I’m a huge fan of ADF, but recently his results have mirrored my hype. He has a tremendously well-rounded game, and similar to Tommy Paul, when he gets to a big match he cannot win, he actually competes. This may sound like less than stellar praise, but there are so many guys on tour who just fold up when they’re outmatched. Fokina is the favorite here because he has a much more stable backhand than Giron, so Marcos will need to serve very well to have a shot here. I don’t see it happening, but it should be an entertaining contest. ADF in 3-4.

Bublik vs Thiem

Thiem is capable of heroics here, but he hasn’t really gotten back to his previous levels on hardcourt at all. Signs of life are there on clay, but hardcourt is something that took him several rough seasons to figure out. Bublik has the offense to take his rhythm away, and most importantly he has a tremendous serve. Thiem’s main trouble on hardcourt is returning serve as he has to employ a block return with his one-hander, and standing back where he’s comfortable doesn’t work well against Bublik because he serve-volleys as often as he can. I’d love to see Thiem wake up, but this feels like Bublik 3-4.

Cachin vs Shelton

I like Cachin’s game and Shelton is a little bit overzealous at times so on first glance I thought this would be close. Digging into Cachin’s recent history though, he hasn’t played any warmup events on hard. He also has lost his last 6 out of 7 hardcourt matches so this season has not been that great. Shelton lost first round here last year in 5 to Borges, but he made the quarterfinals in Australia so there’s a good reason that his ceiling (and expectations) are considered to be quite high. Shelton has a huge serve, and a moderately adequate backhand. It just seems like he’s still fighting it off a bit, but time on tour may see him adjust to the pace.

Shelton and Eubanks played some solid doubles in Cincinnati, and I was excited to see how hard Shelton was playing and how aggressively. He cuts off anything at net he possibly can and seems to have great hands and creativity. Regular runs to the opposite side of the court are tricky, but Shelton seemed to choose correctly on a good chunk of these and doubles can really help your singles game in the long run because it reminds you that proper skill and technique can have more impact at the higher level than power. We often see talented juniors go on a run in their first few events, and part of that is there are so many extended rallies in junior tennis that the players ballstriking is excellent. Shelton has the same positive attitude that Alcaraz does, and loving the sport you play has a big impact on longevity and progress.

For this match, Shelton should win. Cachin might start slow, and doing this against a server is a bad hole to dig. The home crowd will get behind the NCAA star, and I think his only trouble will be unforced errors as he tends to be willing to go big from behind the baseline on his inside out forehand. Shelton in 3-4.

Karatsev vs Lehecka

I’ve noticed that the guys I’m really high on tend to have middling results for a while. Lehecka is one of them. His progress on tour has been great, but the peaks he’s hit are where I expect him to stay and so far he’s had a hard time beating the big servers/hitters. Two losses to Fritz are fine, but it means he’s got a ceiling right now. What I see is a guy with all the tools and the right work ethic, who falls into somewhat conservative patterns on big points because he’s still in the “grind up the ranking” mode. Once your spot on tour is somewhat secure, it’s good to transition out of that. Point blank, Fritz was willing to go big on any point in the tiebreakers and break points, and Lehecka was looking to outlast him. This attitude is fine because Fritz isn’t a brick wall, but he’s also susceptible to big offense and I think Lehecka’s accuracy is there if he aims higher.

Right now, Lehecka is in the finals of Winston-Salem after receiving a walkover in the semifinals from Korda. This is both excellent, and tricky for his chances here. Obviously, he’s playing good ball and should be the favorite. The second day of rest is generally the one where soreness really makes it’s appearance, so scheduling may play a part in the results here. Karatsev’s offense is good enough to get him to the business end of sets, and a fatigued Lehecka may have a hard time making that quick reaction to return serve and defend. Tough spot, but I still think that Lehecka should win. Might take his last legs though, and with Rune potentially less than 100% it’s almost a shame he’s made the finals in WS. Lehecka in 5.

Carballes Baena vs Rune

RCB is a wall so this is a good look at Rune’s health. So far this hardcourt swing he’s been a bit out of sorts. He seems like he’s in clay-mode, and is looping the ball a bit too often. It resembles Ruud’s struggles, but it may be tied into some back issues that he’s been dealing with. If he’s not 100%, he really could lose to anyone so it’s hard to analyze his chances. Hopefully he’s healthy, and in that case even a slow start will see him still win. Rune in 4.

Tsitsipas vs Raonic

It’s nice to have Raonic’s smooth game and hairgel back in the game. Fun fact, Milos once got my frisbee out of a tree. He also threw it up there, but not everybody’s good at frisbee. When I was a kid I was at a Thanksgiving family gathering and I snuck out to the backyard for some fresh air. I saw a boomerang sitting on the deck. I was so excited. I heard about these things, so I picked it up and tossed it. It clattered aimlessly into their neighbor’s yard, and 7 year old me realized I ain’t shit. I went back inside and never told anyone. Sorry cousins about your boomerang, but it doesn’t work. Anyway, Tsitsipas has been extremely busy leading up to this event, hosting an AMA on the r/tennis subreddit. He also threw out the first pitch at the Mets game, which is somewhat odd because it was Japense heritage night.

For once, I like the moves. Tsitsipas has tried to put himself out there and build a public image. This is appealing I suppose, but it’s really tough to do. Anyone with social media knows, the more people you add, the harder it gets to speak or post. It’s easy to speak to a few people, but when you’re addressing thousands, it can get tricky and you might ruffle some feathers or be misunderstood. So Tsitsipas has seemed to some, a bit of a fan of himself, and his blowups and path to maturity have been in the public eye so there have been hiccoughs. Anyone can become the hero at any point in the story though, and an AMA is the right outlet for him I think. He gets to communicate with his fans, he gets to give back to the people who love and support him, and it is a format where him sharing his thoughts is improving the situation, rather than drawing eye-rolls or critiques. Throwing out a pitch at a baseball game is great. It increases exposure for tennis, and it gets him out of the tennis bubble that he’s grown up on. Travelling helps you become a more well-rounded person, but it can’t just be geographical. Walking through different circles and meeting different people is equally important, so I like these two moves.

In terms of tennis, I like these moves also. He hasn’t been playing great aside from a Los Cabos title, so it’s good for him to get a bit of a distraction, and put the focus elsewhere. Maybe he’s not doing great on court, but his relationship is going bueno, and he had a pretty good weekend. Can he beat Raonic? Sure. Raonic has been decent in his return, but not sharp. I’m not sure how long it’ll take to get there, but him playing 3 perfect sets of tennis would be fairly surprising. Tsitsipas can serve his way out of trouble here, and he’ll remember their previous match where a few key shanks late in the set cost him. Raonic won their previous two meetings also, so this is a decent chance for revenge. Tsitsipas’ new proclivity for going at his opponent when they’re at net is a bit cringe, but if you want to adopt half a tough guy role, a revenge match is the perfect opportunity to really lean into that. I expect this to be tricky because of Raonic’s serve and their history, but Tsitsipas should outlast him. Tsitsipas in 4.

Popyrin vs

Halys vs Bonzi

Halys had a tough loss last week to Diaz Acosta where he was heavily favored but just couldn’t keep his offense together. This is now a pretty favorable draw, but Bonzi has been sort of inching back towards form. For me, the French matchups tend to go the way of the more experienced player a lot of the time, and that’s Bonzi. Benjamin only has a handful of wins recently, but Muller and Shimizu are sort of around Haly’s level. The question of slump vs slump is always tricky, and Halys being a big server adds to it because Bonzi’s troubles holding serve are going to cost him huge here. Still, Diaz Acosta and Gastao Elias were able to outlast Halys, so I’m thinking he’s not at his best. I’m probably going to eat it on this one since Halys won their previous two matchups in straights, but I think Bonzi has played slightly better in the past month. Bonzi in 4-5.

Kwon vs Eubanks

Chris Eubanks has struggled a bit to recreate his grasscourt magic, but this is a gift of a draw. Kwon has not played in months, and Eubanks beat him earlier this year at the AO. Peak Kwon is a favorite, but 6 months off is something we generally don’t see someone overcome, especially against a big server. Eubanks in 3.

Musetti vs

Barrere vs

Kecmanovic vs Varillas

Kecmanovic has shown a rare ability to make me constantly believe he’s going to win. When I do, he doesn’t do it. When I don’t, he also doesn’t do it. It’s been a real random year for him, but this is a decent spot because Varillas hasn’t been playing his best tennis either. Varillas is a really solid baseliner who has a handful of big come from behind victories, but he doesn’t have the big serve or offense that tend to thrive at the US Open. Kecmanovic serves bigger, and is a bit more effective from the baseline. What he lacks is consistency. For a baseliner to have unforced errors is a tough equation to overcome, and Kecmanovic hits rally balls into the net too often. It seems like a lack of confidence in the swing, but I guess tennis is difficult. Tennis results make me hate the word “should”, but Kecmanovic should win here. Kecmanovic in 4-5.

Johnson vs Fritz

Steve Johnson is back! If you like guys wearing hats, you’re gonna love Steve Johnson. Do you enjoy players that rage-swipe their racquet at the ground but don’t actually make contact? If so, Steve Johnson is your guy. Do you think backhands are unnecessary? Well so does Steve Johnson. YOU ARE IN LUCK! Taylor Fritz, who spends a good chunk of his time imitating a mopey cat, has been given a pretty good opener here. With a struggling Kecmanovic waiting, he should make the third round. With Musetti as the likely frontrunner in the other section, he’s fairly locked to make the fourth. It’s a good spot. Fritz in 3-4. Johnson almost exclusively slices his backhand so he’s not just able to win on tour regularly, but he has a big serve/forehand combo and it’s hard to blank anyone in straight sets. This also might be a retirement tour situation for Johnson, so I don’t think he’s getting zipped.

Auger-Aliassime vs McDonald

You know those spooky tv shows where a main character or a villain is allegedly dead, but right before the episode ends they show their eyes snapping open and then they put spooky music? That’s kinda how Felix’s tennis matches go. Unfortunately, we need him to wake up within the match, and this has not really happened lately. He did notch a win against Berrettini recently, but followed this up with a lopsided loss to Mannarino. All this makes Mackie McDonald a favorite to win here. Mackie is classic for winning the first and losing the match, but this season he has produced when he’s been favored, and he’s getting a lot of respect in this hardcourt swing.

Gamewise, Felix is better. He has a bigger serve, a heavier forehand, and he’s just as fast as Mackie. Mcdonald has a more compact game though, and this is a key here since FAA has struggled with his contact point. Too many balls sent long, too many fluffed contacts, and too much “hmm” make me kinda question if his team is really giving him the right messages here. He’s too good to be losing like this, and Shapovalov losing in the same way makes me think they need some new influences. A decent sports psychologist could go a long way, or maybe even just a mean guy who makes you run a lap or do pushups. In any event, it’s hard to really expect FAA to win, but tennis is so much better when he’s at his best so we all watch his matches and hope hope hope that he starts to ball. McDonald in 3-4.

Dellien vs

Vesely vs

Cerundolo vs

Djere vs Nakashima

This should be a good match to watch in person, and a fatiguing one to watch on tv. Nakashima is playing well again, but he still lacks the big serving that can save him from having to play exceptional from the baseline. Wins against Fils and Kubler are nice, but losing to Gasquet tells me you’re not really exploding on offense. Richard is excellent, but he’s not lightning fast anymore. He takes cares of his serve and he puts the ball in tough spots. A guy like Nakashima should be able to run him into the ground, but again, tennis is tough on the court and easy on paper. Djere is not usually the big draw on hardcourt, but he has a good amount of power and serves fairly well. It’s a good fake test for Nakashima. If his offense isn’t really at that next level, he likely has a hard time scoring on Djere, and that makes this a 50/50 contest. Djere isn’t going to hit you off the court, so Nakashima can win this with his legs. I’d expect this to have some very significant swings in momentum, and for there to be a tiebreaker or two. Neither have a dominant serve, but there’s not a lot to separate them in rallies and it’s sort of a miniature version of the unstoppable force vs the immovable rock. I like Djere’s experience and physical strength here, and I think the pressure will be mostly on Brandon. Djere in 5.

Random qualifier vs Random qualifier

Zapata Miralles vs Quinn

Kinda interesting to see Quinn getting respect in the odds here. BZM is not a top player on hardcourt, but he’s got a pretty big serve and he can be pretty hard to hit through. Quinn also hasn’t won a tour-level match on hardcourt yet. He lost to Nava, he lost to Brouwer, and he lost to Vukic. Nothing wrong with these, but there’s alot of hype surrounding Ethan so you want him to get going. This is a great chance, since Bernabe was just playing some clay-court tennis in Germany. Quinn is the NCAA champ, so the wildcard is deserved, but it feels like he’s going to need some help to win here, whether it’s a slow start from Zapata Miralles or a very enthusiastic crowd. I think the claycourter is just a bit too strong at this stage. BZM in 4.

Muller vs Djokovic

Djokovic winning Cincinnati has made this event so exciting. As him and Alcaraz progressed through the draw, I almost couldn’t believe they were willing to meet. So many big matches pre-major have been stifled by random losses or squintworthy withdrawals in tennis, so I really do appreciate these guys hanging in there, and putting it all on the line for our entertainment. Djokovic has a pretty easy path here, and should probably not see much resistance til the round of 16 where he’ll meet Tsitsipas or Fritz (based off the seeds). He looked sharp and motivated in Cincinnati, and him getting deep in this event while remaining fresh is what we want. This is also a tournament that he has been locked out of due to COVID restrictions, and due to a tough default ruling a few years back, so he may be super hungry for this one. Muller is a fine player, but this is a bad draw and he doesn’t really have the weapons to score here. Normal warmup in the early rounds Djokovic in 4, or Spicy Djokovic in 3.