2023 US Open Men's Finals 🐢

ATP Singles

Medvedev vs Djokovic

Before the semifinals played out, I was somewhat prepared to predict a slight victory for Alcaraz in the finals. It felt like his ability to play at the same pace as Djokovic was a big factor in Wimbledon, and since Alcaraz seems to have a slight ability to hit his forehand bigger and in a more chaotic manner as the matches drag on, it would be a tough matchup for Novak. That was assuming that Alcaraz would run through Medvedev due to the power differential though. I felt like people were sleeping on Medvedev because of his lopsided (injured) loss against Alcaraz at Indian Wells in slower conditions, but I still thought that Alcaraz would be the player more able to score and that they’d be even in neutral rallies. This just wasn’t the case though.

Early in the first set Alcaraz was near perfect on serve. He was coming to net nonstop, and his volleys were sharp. Medvedev dipped his passes low, but he wasn’t able to recover position fast enough to ever get ahead in the scoreline. He had an early look at two break points at 2-1, but these went away and both players pretty much held easily until they arrived at a tiebreaker. Medvedev would end up winning the tiebreak, but there already was a problem for the Alcaraz camp. Daniil was not missing at all. Throughout the match he was able to trade equal on his backhand wing, and when he was stretched wide he was able to hit with good enough depth down the line that he was always able to recover to center. Alcaraz played a very good set, but the cracks and stylistic issues that had appeared in their previous matchups were gone.

It seemed in this match that Medvedev just outlasted Alcaraz’s stockpile of perfect play. Alcaraz was utilizing dropshots and net rushes very often in this match, and while these are useful plays against Medvedev, there’s only so long that your execution can be perfect. With highly coached players, there tend to be patterns and tactics that they employ early in a match. It’s common to see Ruud and Alcaraz and Hijikata playing almost in a robotic manner early in a match, but as things drag on they aren’t as automatic with their shot selection. This happened here, and Alcaraz seemed to force some forehands in the second that he didn’t need to.

Part of Alcaraz’s strategy is to play at a pace that his opponent has to fully exert to match. It’s similar to Nadal’s approach or De Minaur’s approach. Basically, you try to make them play at a pace they’re not comfortable with, and at some point you expect them to burn out. Medvedev didn’t, so Alcaraz’s insistence on a high-octane approach had him making more errors in this one, and the second set got away from him very quickly, ending 6-1 for Medvedev.

In the third set, Alcaraz actually beat Medvedev. He broke on his first and only opportunity, and held onto it until the end of the match. With the lead, we saw a different Alcaraz. He took a little power off, and kept the ball in difficult spots for Medvedev. He was constantly hitting to the open court, but the more relaxed play meant he was holding his shots longer and this gave Daniil trouble. Early in the fourth, it felt fairly even, but Medvedev saved three break points in the third game, and another three in the final game. Medvedev put it perfectly in his post-match interview, to beat Alcaraz you need to play better than yourself. Medvedev played better than he ever has in this matchup, and better than he had this tournament, and solving that new puzzle is extremely hard to do on court.

At 5-3 in the fourth, the crowd got fairly involved. Cheering for faults, actively whistling and making noises during Medvedev’s serve toss. Honestly, it was pretty sad, so I’m glad it didn’t work. As a competitor, it also taints the win if people are interfering with the match, and Alcaraz made a number of uncharacteristic errors on break points and deuce points in the final game.

The finals here is going to be very interesting. I think if Medvedev had debuted this level against Djokovic, he would be a good shout to win. It was a huge surprise to see him roll out his best tennis, and since the expected plot was “eventually Medvedev will miss or give up short balls from Alcaraz’s power,” there wasn’t much room for Alcaraz to deviate from the plan. If you’re trying to wear someone down, and they never do, you sort of have to just accept the L and plan a different approach for next time. Since Djokovic and his team have gotten a sneak preview of Daniil’s level, their approach will be a bit better.

If you look at the names they’ve played thus far, Djokovic is in the finals of a 250 while Medvedev has been dealing with one of the more impressive major runs you can have in the current era. No disrespect to any of these players (except you, Fritz, kick rocks you gooseberry), but Zapata Miralles, Djere, Gojo, Fritz, and Shelton does not compare in any way to O’Connell, Baez, De Minaur, Rublev, Alcaraz. We can say that Djokovic doesn’t have the proper prep, but it is a really nice thing to wind up in the finals of a tournament and be completely fresh. In the semifinals, Shelton was expected to be an offensive threat, but he really never had a chance. Early in the match it was clear that he didn’t want to hang in rallies with Djokovic, and his usually powerful serve/forehand combo was a bit off-target. Djokovic had some service games that got to 30-30, but Shelton dished out 43 unforced errors in this match.

I understand the “you’re not a favorite in a long rally, so go for something big” concept, but that message has to be somewhat unacceptable if you want to be a top player. Djokovic is very consistent, but even he gets tight, and if you don’t make him play a few balls then the pace change and infusion of power doesn’t work. Djokovic knew from the start that Shelton was going to be ripping his forehand right away, and he just hung back and reflected the power deep. He baited Shelton into errors, and Ben’s impatience made it easy on him. There was some talk of Shelton’s shoulder being sore, and that makes sense considering this was his deepest run at a major so far in his career. Novak did try to gift Shelton the third set by giving back a break twice and playing a mediocre tiebreaker, but Shelton was going for the gusto and he just wasn’t at his best on the day.

After the match, Djokovic mimicked Shelton’s phone-hang up celebration. Honestly, Shelton’s version was a “huh?” moment for me, and Djokovic’s wasn’t much better. Tennis players are fairly soft, and sportsmanship and classy behavior is supposed to be baked into the sport. I understand Shelton borrowed it from Grant Holloway (a track star from the University of Florida), and it makes more sense for him to be excited and flashy celebrating new achievements and big wins. It’s funny that as an observer, the win against Shelton was so lopsided and assured that it seemed unnecessary for Djokovic to jab at him after the match was over. Djokovic must hear a lot of talk about his time being over and all these up-and-comers though, so some uncertainty and defiance can manifest in this spicy way. The same way he dropped the unnecessary “he’s attractive, but that’s not enough” comment about Muller in round one to give himself a pseudo-greenlight to wash the guy, he seemed to have manufactured a view of Shelton that allowed him to shut him down.

It’s hard to find motivation in sport, and Djokovic is not a one-dimensional guy. It’s pretty clear that he has a defiant side when it comes to ball, and since he’s taken the lead in the GOAT debate and gotten back to the top of the tour, little comments and moves like this have snuck out from time to time. He’s feeling himself, but it’s not mean-spirited because you can see in his grins or laughter that he’s getting a kick out of it. We want the guy to be perfect, but nobody is. It would be boring if he were. The reason it gets some scrutiny from people is because he has also adopted a very public persona of a humble guy. He’s extremely classy and thoughtful in his press conferences, so when he gets spicy, it feels like a sharp contrast. “Oh this is the real Djokovic,” people say, but hidden in that is an assumption that every good person is doing it out of guilt rather than choice. The truth is, we don’t know the real Djokovic, because people have infinite depth, and are constantly changing. The truth is also that the phone celebration is goofy as fuck.

For this finals, I expect a very close match. Medvedev’s level is unlikely to drop, but Alcaraz made some tactical errors that Djokovic won’t. Alcaraz serve and volleyed so often that it became predictable. As the match dragged on, he became more of a target and Medvedev earned errors. Djokovic employs this tactic, but he mixes things up well. Alcaraz was also looking to break down Medvedev’s forehand. Djokovic will do the same, but he’s not trying to hit as big and uses more angle and shape on that wing so there will be less errors. Alcaraz served well out wide, but his T serve isn’t as effective as Djokovic’s. This match will likely be played with a closed roof as thunderstorms are predicted, so both players should be serving well.

It’s funny to me that their previous matches at majors have gone somewhat against the expectations. Medvedev seemed at the top of his game in the Australian Open in 2021, but Djokovic was a break better in all three sets. It looked like Medvedev just didn’t have the power to hit through Djokovic, and Novak spread his backhand well down the line and dominated. In the US Open that year, with Djokovic going for the calendar Grand Slam, Medvedev thrived. Djokovic wasn’t prepared to execute on offense, and Medvedev was all business.

Despite these lopsided matches, and both their meetings this year being straight setters, I think this has potential to go 5. Neither are likely to really dominate rallies, and both have minimized errors. The serving battle is fairly even, although Medvedev has had some double-fault issues this tournament. Djokovic hits a bit bigger on his backhand, but Medvedev is hitting with excellent length. It’s the two best defenders and baseliners on tour, and these guys have played 14 times already so they’ll have a good read on each other.

Medvedev beat Djokovic in Dubai in their last meeting (Novak won in Adelaide), but this was Djokovic’s return to the tour after suffering a hamstring tear. Interestingly, the price for that match was -225 for Djokovic, and that was the opening price for this finals match as well. It’s hard to be concrete about what to expect here, but as a fan, I’m excited. Djokovic has wanted to win at the US Open for a number of years now, and spicy Djokovic has been rolling through this draw. For once, he doesn’t seem to have any back or shoulder or other injury issues, and given Medvedev’s level against Alcaraz, this is pretty much the best finals of the year. I think Djokovic is a bit more efficient than Alcaraz here and he’ll stop Medvedev’s run by dominating that backhand exchanges, but I don’t think he can do it without wearing down Medvedev’s legs to take the sharpness off his level. Djokovic in 5.