2023 Roland Garros Women's Singles Round Three

Swiatek vs Wang :

Swiatek had some early difficulties against Liu. She gave back a break, she seemed frustrated by umpire overrules, and there were some swats at the ground with her racquet. It has to be tough to get as fired up as she does to compete and then not see the ball go through the hoop when the hoop feels large. Claire Liu doesn’t really have the game to compete with Swiatek, but a lot of players on tour beat themselves when facing a top player and she stayed steady in the first set. The second set was the usual Swiatek roll. The freedom to open up her game and the lack of scoreboard pressure really turns her into another opponent, which is why I think she struggles against the big servers at times.

Up next for Iga is a much tougher test against Xinyu Wang, who got past Rebecca Peterson in two very competitive sets. While checking out the 5-5 game in the first I realized there are a lot of matches on tour that aren’t very influential in the grand scheme of the draw, so they just get overlooked. Peterson and Wang was objectively a higher quality affair than Swiatek Liu, but the networks stick with the big names. When the big names aren’t there though, they wonder how to promote the game. It’s the same issue that golf had for a while after Tiger Woods left. Promote the sport first, not the players, and the fans will get to know the players on their own.

This match will be the first real look at Swiatek’s level, the same way Fucsovics was our first glance at Djokovic. Wang has a solid serve, and a really capable forehand. Her backhand isn’t anything special, but it isn’t a liability either. She beat Peterson by being a bit more able to generate winners off her forehand wing, so Swiatek should be okay here but still will need to improve her level. I do think that Wang’s classic approach to the game plays into Swiatek’s hands here a bit. Liu has a funkier game and hits a bit flat and uses dropshots, so if her execution is on and the flow of play is so slow she can create scoreboard pressure. With Wang, it’s the same equation throughout and I think Swiatek will find her timing and be able to create chances to get up court during the forehand to forehand exchanges. Swiatek in 2 with Wang winning around 6 games.

Andreescu vs Tsurenko :

Sometimes it feels like the players know that people are doubting them. Ahead of her match with Navarro, Andreescu was set at just -160. This seemed like a lot of respect to me for the challenger, and when this line moved to -145 as people backed Navarro, I thought something was up. Andreescu played as if she had a chip on her shoulder in this one though, and there is a small chance that hearing people were doubting her gave her a bit of extra fire. Andreescu’s power was the big difference here. Navarro never really settled in the first set, and despite going up 4-2 in the second, it felt like any errors from her would cost her a game whereas Andreescu was able to score by hitting to pretty big targets. Absent the prices, I’d have expected Andreescu to win too, and since she beat Azarenka, I think the run continues against Tsurenko.

Lesia got a walkover against Lauren Davis, and hopefully she has a quick recovery for grass season. Tsurenko is a good test of Andreescu’s consistency and stamina, as she’ll put more balls in play than Navarro who is really looking to trade power. The problem for Bianca’s opponents is going to be protecting their serves. Andreescu was able to get full swings in a large chunk of the time against Navarro, and Tsurenko doesn’t have a ton of power in her delivery. I expect given the quick nature of Andreescu’s match today that she’ll be fresh for this match. Andreescu in 2.

Schmiedlova vs Day :

Big upset for Kayla Day, probably the win of her career if you set aside minor and junior titles. Keys was able to level the match after winning the second but she just couldn’t avoid unforced errors and the pace of the slightly slowed-down RG courts allowed Day to run down most of her shots. It looked a little like the play of Fernandez, but Day hits the ball with more zip and this allowed her to beat Keys in the rallies where Madison went safe. The best of Day’s game is her inside-out forehand, because the footwork she uses is identical to when she goes cross-court. This next match is very winnable, but it’ll be a big test of her physical strength because Schmiedlova hits a very heavy ball and doesn’t miss often.

A.K. Schmiedlova was lucky to get a qualifier in round two, and made the most of it by edging past Bolsova in two hard-fought sets. Kudermetova gifted her the first round win via unforced errors, but Schmiedlova’s height and her reliable baselining let her get across the finish line. I think Kayla is a slight favorite, but thus far she’s competed against offensive talents and this one will require her to improve her ratio of winners to unforced errors (10-23 in round two). Keys gave Day 74 unforced errors in their second round, and Schmiedlova is really not looking to force the issue so this should be a long one. I do think Day’s serving is a bit sharper, and her forehand is good enough to put away the rallies she gets ahead in. Should be a marathon, but I like the junior standout. Day in 3.

Andreeva M. vs Gauff :

OH FLUFF. This is ominous, like when you find an avocado you sort of forgot you had and go to squeeze it. Mirra Andreeva is one of the most reliable phenoms I’ve ever seen. When she’s slated to win, she wins. It isn’t a gimmicky or one-dimensional game either. She moves the ball well, seems very well coached and often chooses the right shot regardless of the importance of the point, and her serve isn’t half bad. Parry hung around early but Andreeva just doesn’t give you anything. She beat Haddad Maia earlier this year but I think this is the biggest test of her career thus far. Gauff is through after dismissing Rabat finalist Julia Grabher in two quick sets. Grabher went up a break in the second, but she was unable to hold serve at all in this match and it was a good reminder that Gauff’s troubles on court really only pop up when there is actual scoreboard and career pressure (playing a big name or another junior contender). I’m not sure what she’ll feel here, playing a player who very likely watched Gauff and gained some belief from her early wins on tour. Gauff is pretty mature though, as was evident by her court chatter down a break against Grabher. After a few misses, she advised herself to calm down, and it worked.

Andreeva is good enough to play with Gauff right now. Good enough to hit through her though is a different story. I don’t expect Mirra’s level to falter because of the opposition, but Gauff is the stronger player and can serve bigger. One of them has to lose here but it doesn’t feel like either are going to play poorly. Gauff’s weight of shot is heavier but she’s a little more error prone. I’m thinking Andreeva might be good for the upset here. Andreeva in 3.

Rybakina vs Sorribes Tormo :

Sorribes Tormo was clinical today in slowing down Petra Martic’s highly skilled offense. It sets up a challenge I know Sara will be excited for even though it likely ends her tournament. Rybakina beat the tough Czech standout Linda Noskova in straight sets, and though she’s been struggling on clay this is still a quality win. Rybakina vs Sorribes Tormo may take a while, because this is the classic match where Rybakina struggles. The players who used to be able to make her play a lot of balls could get the benefit of errors. At this point in her career, it’s not clear that those will come. Tormo’s serve is not strong enough to keep Rybakina at bay, and her willingness to give up court position and try to outlast and outmaneuver her opponent is not ideal with Rybakina has such a good technical production when she has time. Tormo’s slices could cause some troubles for Rybakina since she’s pretty tall, but I don’t think Rybakina is going to hit herself out of this match, nor do I think it’ll be over quick enough (if Tormo gains the lead) for Ryba not to reset her game and play a bit more conservative. Rybakina in 2.

Alexandrova vs Haddad Maia :

Haddad Maia had the much tougher match in her second round, barely squeaking by the big hitting lefty Diana Shnaider. Shnaider seems perfectly still then uncorks huge winners and deft dropshots. It’s really fun to watch and it’s unfortunate for her that she ran into BHM in such good form. Another huge hitting affair is in store here as Alexandrova comes in playing her best tennis. She rolled Friedsam who is generally a tough defensive test, and she’s one of the only players who’s taken a set off Swiatek on clay this season. Haddad Maia won both their previous matches, but this one should be very close. Alexandrova’s defense is a bit lacking here which could be the big difference, but defense doesn’t matter if you get the first big swing in, and with both her and Haddad serving well and hitting big it’s hard to point to any other real differences. Haddad Maia in 3.

Cocciaretto vs Pera :

I caught a good chunk of Vekic vs Pera and I was surprised by how hard Pera was hitting the ball off her backhand wing. It’s usually the more error prone side for her but she really was focused today. Vekic’s movement was a little slow, and she sent a lot of forehands into the net where it just looked like her swing was a little bit late. It’s hard to pick against Pera after what I’ve just watched her produce, so I probably won’t. Cocciaretto is a really good serve though, and she has a baseline game that looks like it’s low-percentage but is relatively steady. She beat Waltert pretty easily, and she’ll have a lot of crowd support which the Americans typically have none of at RG. I expect Pera to lose the same set she did to Vekic, but for her overall power and ability to redirect on her forehand side to give her a slight edge. Really close match, but Pera in 3.

Danilovic vs Jabeur :

Paolini had the second set locked up and was up 5-2 at one point, but her legs had left the building. It’s not surprising that her recent run of matches would eventually come to an end, and once she was visibly laboring, Danilovic’s job was easy. Credit to the lefty for hitting to the open court and not missing when the match got tight. She faced some break points in the 6-5 game as well, but she could see the finish line and it has been some inspired tennis this week from the qualifier. This next round might not be winnable, but Danilovic deserves a chance to play a big name on a big stage. Jabeur has been dealing with some fitness issues and has been somewhat underwhelming this clay season, but she’s rolled through all her matches so far this week. Danilovic’s forehand is how she scores most of her points, and I think Jabeur’s power will make it tough for her to really impose her will on rallies. This is Jabeur’s first big test this event, so it’ll be interesting to see how her defense is. Jabeur in 2 close sets.

Muchova vs Begu :

Podoroska did well to win a set against Muchova, and it’s a sign that Muchova’s stellar defense against Sakkari may have been partially a matchup thing more than a consistent presence at this event. It leaves the door open in her next round for Irina Camila Begu, who advanced fairly easily past Sara Errani. Errani pushed herself to the limit, but her arm seemed a bit flat. She was rolling her serves in more than usual, and not really looking to exert. Her forehand struggled to create depth, and though she went to moonballs early, Begu knew she was safe and was employing the same strategy against a much shorter opponent. Muchova and Begu should be close, as Begu has excellent power off both wings and is used to playing extended matches. I think Karolina’s attitude on court is a lot better than Begu’s though, and having navigated a 3 set match already and defeated Sakkari, she will be familiar with adversity in a way that Begu is perhaps not yet in this event. Very thin margins to point to, but Muchova’s tennis is pretty solid also. She’ll be the less consistent player on offense, but I think her overall level is a bit higher and it’s hard to play a really sharp opponent after a slow match like Errani was. Muchova in 3.

Tauson vs Avanesyan :

This Roland Garros field is extremely strong, but there are a lot of new names making their appearance in the third round. Avanesyan was able to hold off a second set surge from Leolia Jeanjean and make her first third round appearance. It was a nice reward in terms of match difficulty because her first win was a huge upset against Bencic. This is another big name for her, and I think she’s up to the task but perhaps it will be a little tougher than Bencic despite Belinda being a much more well-known and accomplished player. The reason I think she struggles with Tauson is how much harder Tauson hits. She’s blasting her way through this draw, and Fernandez found a solid level last match but her defense couldn’t stop Clara. Avanesyan definitely is a tougher test since Leylah has been having confidence issues, but it’s a comfortable situation for Tauson playing against another junior standout. Tauson also has a pretty strong service delivery which I think will give her a small edge. Tauson in 2-3.

Potapova vs Pavluchenkova :

This is tricky because Pavlyuchenkova probably shouldn’t be here. Samsonova had a bunch of chances to put the match away including going up 5-2 in the third set. Pavs is really solid but it was an unlikely comeback so it’s hard to gauge whether Potapova, a similar offensive talent, will wind up in a similar position. These two have met once, on clay in 2021, with Potapova winning in a third set. Potapova is definitely in good form and she’s playing good offense, but Pavlyuchenkova is really consistent and the power she hits with has a way of forcing her opponents into errors. This feels like a match Potapova should win in 2, but I’d be very nervous heading into a third against Pavs.

Mertens vs Pegula :

It’s interesting to see Pegula has a heavy favorite here considering Mertens has won both their previous meetings. Pegula wins on consistency and I don’t really think that works against Elise. Mertens has one of the best games on tour for a player without a big serve, and she tends to be a gatekeeper for the later rounds but doesn’t win many titles herself. For her to beat Pegula it’ll require her to play solid and to play 10-20 shot rallies for 2-3 hours. It’s unlikely that Pegula falls flat here also because she got a walkover last round after winning the first against Giorgi. I just don’t think either player is going to be able to create easy points here, so it’ll likely come down to conditioning. Hard to ignore the h2h, but I think Pegula will win this in 3.

Blinkova vs Svitolina :

A rematch of last weeks Strasbourg final. That match was competitive but Svitolina was pretty much always in the lead. I don’t expect much to have changed here. Blinkova pulled off a tremendous upset win against Garcia, but she’s a defensive baseliner and Svitolina is the same thing but with more speed and a heavier shot. Her backhand is a little better also. Svitolina in 2.

Stearns vs Kasatkina :

Believing worked! Peyton Stearns USO futures you heard it here third! Jokes aside, that was a really good win. Ostapenko is capable of imploding but she’s a really aggressive returner and Stearns did well to get through. Up next is a match that it almost seems like she should win. Kasatkina managed to beat Vondrousova in 2 sets which is pretty impressive. She’s around -230 for the next round which might be fair, but if I look at their games on paper Stearns seems a little better. She has a better serve, she has a bigger forehand, and her backhand hits harder and goes down the line well. I know Kasatkina is playing tremendous, but this is on Stearns racquet if she can maintain the work ethic and play consistent on big points.

Stearns has a tendency to require two chances to win the same game. The break point opens up, but she sends the first return long trying to do a bit too much. The line is open, but she sends the first one a few inches wide. It’s a by-product of being in the college tennis world I expect. She was likely better than a lot of her opponents, so blasting away was a viable option. Against Kasatkina, those errors will cost you the match because she isn’t going to miss. It’ll take multiple shots per rally to maneuver Kasatkina into a spot where Stearns can safely go for a big shot, so hopefully her coaches are preparing her for a long and tactical battle. I’m fully expecting the upset, but if she loses it’ll only be to unforced errors. Stearns in 3.

Stephens vs Putintseva :

Big upset for Putintseva. Her dropshots were remarkable in this one and so was her work ethic. Zheng started off strong but she was rattled in this one and once Yelena got in a rhythm Zheng was really up against it. It makes me think that Putintseva has half a chance here against Sloane, but wow is Stephens playing well. Gracheva looked relatively helpless against Stephens. Stephens hit with more power, and her composure makes it seem like nothing you’re doing is having an effect. Gracheva is looking to play offense though, and the errors and forced shots hurt her. Putintseva is looking to wait for mistakes just the same as Stephens, so I think this will be a very close match despite Sloane’s form. Having just lost to Bronzetti, and with Putintseva having had previous success against Stephens (last win on hardcourt, and the only win on clay), I think she gets this one in 3.

Rakhimova vs Sabalenka :

Rakhimova led from start to finish against Frech, and she comes into this match being soundly disrespected by the books. Sabalenka is something like -2000 to win, and while I agree she should win, I don’t know if it’s going to be so straightforward. It seems at times that Sabalenka doesn’t really pay attention to what’s going on at the other end of the net. If she’s missing, she just keeps swinging. It’s a tactic that’s finally paying off because her serving woes are gone, but sometimes I think she’s the more consistent player and doesn’t realize it. Shymanovich fared well against Sabalenka, and it was mostly from hitting the ball solid and into the court. Despite her good play, I didn’t feel like Aryna was really in any danger, and Shimanovich did seem to be making more unforced errors than winners. I think she could have gone into hitting-partner mode and won quicker and with less expenditure of energy. Just a random thought, but sometimes you have to deviate from plan A for a quicker and simpler win.

This is a match where I also think Sabalenka doesn’t need to do as much. Rakhimova hits solid and breaks serve well. She doesn’t really deviate from the cross-court patterns and she doesn’t really go for winners from neutral. Sabalenka can look for her spots, but if she’s trying to just hit through Kamila, it may take this match to overtime since Rakhimova reflects power very well and her stamina is excellent. I’m sure Sabalenka will continue to evolve her game, but I do expect Rakhimova to win a handful of games here just due to Sabalenka forcing the issue. Sabalenka in 2-3.