2023 Roland Garros Women's Semifinals

Swiatek vs Haddad Maia :

Kudos to Cori Gauff, we got our first look at Swiatek’s resolve. Unfortunately for Gauff, there is lots of it. Iga broke early in the first, but Gauff’s solid baselining was able to get back on even terms. She served well and her power and speed were just good enough to deal with Swiatek’s offense, but just like the McRib, it was for a limited time only. Swiatek is starting to iron out her backhand down the line from the ad side (on returns) and she hit a few that were so impressive Gauff just looked at her camp and shared a shrug with them. When there is a power differential in Swiatek’s favor, it doesn’t seem like she can lose. She hits the big targets a lot of the time, but she puts extra power and spin into the shots and it paid dividends as the match went on.

Gauff had break points early in the second, but after not getting the break she faded a bit and Swiatek has proven to be the tour’s best frontrunner. Gauff did have chances on some slow second serves and a few setups, but it seems like when she has to supply her own pace she struggles with accuracy. This might be partially because the frenzied pace Swiatek plays at requires you to be constantly ready to react quickly, but there were balls that landed in the bottom of the net and ones that sailed long that she definitely should have converted (most notably the ball at net she lobbed long with Swiatek basically crouched underneath the net with her racquet up). Swiatek’s serve was a big factor in this, and it just seems like when she’s not facing a significant offensive threat everything about her game functions well.

While Swiatek was rolling against last year’s finalist, Haddad Maia was pulling off a highly improbable comeback against Ons Jabeur. There were 5 breaks of serve in the first set, but Jabeur never trailed. Her dropshots went largely uncontested, and Bella had little opportunity to get into baseline rallies. What ensued in the second set is something you rarely see in the WTA, 100% holds of serve. They both saved break points in their final game, but Jabeur was broken her first two serves in the tiebreaker and 3-0 just feels insurmountable sometimes. Haddad hung on, and she got the benefit of a rattled Jabeur in the third.

Ons seems to play even faster once she’s frustrated or down in the scoreline, and it can make any scoreline feel dangerous in both directions. She went down 3-0, but after breaking easily for 1-3, she cruised to 40-30 and seemed like she’d hold. The entire momentum shifted towards her, and Haddad Maia looked to be outgunned again as she was in the first. It wound up being a marathon game in which she was dominating rallies but refusing to stay in them. Some unfortunately shot selection on a few key points led to the break, and from a potential 2-3, it only took about 15 more minutes to wind up at 6-1. Haddad won this with her legs and her defense, but I didn’t love some of her offensive choices. Jabeur was imploding, but Haddad was also going for quick offense and she missed a number of forehands down the line that I don’t think she needed to attempt. She definitely covered the dropshot better in the third set, and with a day of rest I think she’ll be fine for her first Grand Slam semifinal.

Haddad Maia is not being given a lot of chance here, as a 10:1 underdog, but she won their previous meeting in Toronto. That was on quick hardcourts, but it’s still good to be familiar with your opponents shots and delivery before a big match. BHM is serving fairly well, and her lefty forehand patterns can be effective since once of Swiatek’s favorite weapons is her backhand cross-court. The down the line forehand misses can’t be there for Haddad Maia though. She needs to play very secure, and that shot needs to land in the court so she can open things up. This just seems like another Jabeur level offense she’s facing, but Swiatek is extremely quick around the court and doesn’t make the same unforced errors. Jabeur was unwilling to stay in points late in the match, and Swaitek is basically looking to apply pressure on every shot but doesn’t have any concerns about playing a long match or resetting the rally with a heavy forehand. This should be entertaining, but I’m not sure if anyone except Sabalenka can bother Swiatek. Swiatek in 2.

Muchova vs Sabalenka :

This is the correct semifinal to play into Iga for a few reasons. The main one is, this match is unlikely to be won without significant offensive output. The second one is, both of these players have wins on clay against Iga Swiatek. The third one is, both players have experience in the late rounds of a major, so the moment is unlikely to phase them. Muchova is here after a hard-fought win against Pavlyuchenkova. The first set was pretty close with 5 breaks between the two, and Muchova winning 7-5, but the second set showed Muchova to be a bit fresher and she pulled away with stylish offense and variety.

It’s hard to compare Muchova to another player on tour. She has a lot of power in her forehand, but she hits a lot of moonballs and off-speed shots. Her backhand seems a bit ordinary, but it doesn’t seem to miss and she takes it down the line at the perfect moment. Muchova reminds me a bit of Andreescu in that she isn’t the craziest athlete, but her understanding of the game seems like it requires 0 coaching and I get caught off-balance by her shots even sitting at home watching. In short, if she gets there to play Swiatek, she probably can’t win, but there’s no hole in her game for Swiatek to exploit and she has the power and offensive presence to protect her serve. Her win against Swiatek came in 2019, but it’s good to be familiar with an opponent and a past victory can always cause a little doubt in an opponent.

I took a risk in the last round and called for a Svitolina win. Sabalenka had some rough patches early in this event, and I thought if any defensive player could exploit that, it’d be Svitolina. The scoreline ended up being close, and there were a number of shots that could have swung the momentum in this one. Both players were hitting the ball as hard as they could, and both went very aggressively. The difference was, Sabalenka was moving to the ball, and Svitolina was in a nonstop scramble. Her defense was incredibly impressive, but Sabalenka never took her foot off the gas pedal. I haven’t seen that level of ballstriking since maybe Serena Williams, and it was the type of performance that would be able to unsettle even Swiatek. Muchova has a better forehand than Svitolina and better offense (including some deft dropshots which will test the taller player’s forward movement), but her issue will be the same as Svito’s : how can you wrest control of rallies back from Sabalenka once she gets a full swing. Sabalenka’s commitment to playing hard from the beginning of this season has paid off, and it also has her not really overthinking things in order to produce that type of offense; it’s just her normal game. Her having a big serve almost seems unfair. I’m expecting a similar match scoreline, with the rallies being of high quality but Muchova largely having to play perfect to remain on even terms. Not sure how long she’ll keep that up, but this is the best opponent that Sabalenka has played yet so I would not be surprised if Muchova could win a set with a Sabalenka lapse. Problem is, that lapse seemed to only be a thing when Aryna was facing opponents she could afford one against. Sabalenka in 2.