2023 Roland Garros Women's Round Two

Swiatek vs Liu :

Early in the first set, Swiatek looked a bit out of sorts. I feel overall that her baseline offense is the best and most varied on tour, but her defense can sometimes be a bit wild. She was having trouble finding length on her forehands on the run and when the ball dipped low, and Bucsa was focusing on that wing with great results. Just when it seemed like Swiatek might have a tough time, she closed out the set and zipped Bucsa in the second. It’s a good sign, and the classic clay champions have always pulled away as the match went on. Liu enjoyed a good win over claybot In-Albon, who had trouble finding her range today. It sets up a nice contest, but not one I expect Swiatek to struggle in. In-Albon let Liu play inside the court and paid the price for her deep position. Iga will push Liu around and her topspin should keep Liu from really playing offense. Swiatek in 2.

Peterson vs Wang Xin. :

This should be a close match. Wang was able to pull of a nice upset against Bouzkova, and Peterson stopped Ferro’s return to the tour in two decisive sets. The key here should be Peterson’s consistency. Wang has a pretty big offense, but she can get outlasted at times and Peterson is in a good rhythm. Peterson in 2-3.

Andreescu vs Navarro :

Tell me Navarro is going to win without telling me Navarro is going to win. This is a tricky spot. Andreescu should be a heavy favorite on paper after beating Azarenka, but Navarro really is the hot hand here. Azarenka was looking to outlast Andreescu, and Bianca did well to notice that she was able to move up the court more often than not. Some timely overhand backhads did damage, and Azarenka resorted to pushing a bit too much in this one. Andreescu is error prone when she’s fatigued, but if she’s kinda just hanging around the baseline it turns into a hitting drill. She got through, but I don’t know if the run continues. Navarro is on a very good run, and her power is enough to give Andreescu problems. This is the classic “believe in the underdog” situation where she might end up getting 4,1, but I’m inclined to think that Navarro has proven herself enough in this run to have a shot here. I think this ends up in a third a good chunk of the time, so Andreescu in 3 is the most likely outcome. I don’t buy her level though, and she doesn’t look entirely comfortable on clay. Navarro in 3.

Davis vs Tsurenko :

Hooray for rallies! Lauren Davis and Tsurenko are through in straight sets, which means two defensive baseliners are going to have a battle. Should be fun. Davis is a bit faster, but Tsurenko hits bigger and has more variety. Krejickova should have been here, but she’s in a Thiem state in her career where she isn’t sharp, but insists on playing low percentage offense. The result is she just hit herself out of contention against Tsurenko, and it was sort of hard to watch. She needs a reset, but grass likely won’t provide that so I’d expect her to be finding her game post-USO in the indoor swing. For now, Tsurenko in 3.

Schmiedlova vs Bolsova Zadoinov :

Huge upset for Schmiedlova. I thought she’d make this last a while because of how heavy she hits and how conservative her shot selection is, but she just won outright. Kudermetova just shot herself out of this match. There was only one hold of serve in the first set, and the second was a lot of the same on Kudermetova’s end. 40 unforced errors in total. I criticized an ATP player earlier for having that across 4 sets. Schmiedlova should beat Bolsova, but it might be tougher since the Spaniard won’t donate points the way Veronika did. Schmiedlova did have trouble holding serve early also, so this may contain some stressful moments and key points. Still, AK has the bigger weight of shot here, and she should be able to outlast Bolsova. Schmiedlova in 3.

Day vs Keys :

Kayla Day made quick work of Mladenovic, and her reward is another legend of the game. Madison Keys will like her chances here after getting past Kaia Kanepi in 3, but it could be tough. Day is certainly overmatched in the hitting department, but she’s in good form and is hitting cleanly. It’s the kind of match that Keys can have a little trouble in, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Day had a few stretches of games. Keys in 2 close sets.

Parry vs Andreeva M. :

Mirra Andreeva continues to impress. She was slated to beat Riske, but she did. That’s been the most impressive thing so far; when she’s favored, she wins. She’s favored again her, a 3:1 favorite against Diane Parry, who pulled a great upset win against Kalinina. It’s tricky to even assess Andreeva’s ceiling at this point, because Parry beating Kalinina lands her level near the top 30 on tour, and she’s expected to lose to Mirra. This should be a really skillful affair, one worth watching. In the end, I think Andreeva gets this but it should be very competitive. Andreeva in 2.

Grabher vs Gauff :

Gauff did well to outlast Masarova, and she has another really tough test on her hands here. Grabher hasn’t been winning a ton on tour, but her physicality has gone up a huge notch. She’s crushing her forehand, and giving Sakkari a run for her money on muscle tone. I don’t buy the 18.5 game total listed on most books, but Gauff’s speed may make it tougher for Grabher to score on her than it was on Rus. Still think this is mispriced, but Gauff should be a tiny bit better. This is one of those spots where the underdog doesn’t have a win of this caliber, but her play is so high that it’s hard to see her getting blanked, especially since Gauff’s level can fluctuate between sets. Cori did finish strong on her forehand in the last match though, and if she’s hitting clean on that wing she’s a completely different player. Gauff in 2 close sets.

Rybakina vs Noskova :

Good stuff from Noskova getting to the second round, even if it was a forfeit. For Kovinic, it’s a tough L because injury issues have plagued her in the past. Hopefully she recovers quickly. Rybakina struggled early with B-FRUHV, and the youngster’s junior tennis experience proved invaluable. In the junior ranks moonballs are a pretty standard defensive approach, and they bothered Rybakina a lot. When Brenda went with pace on her backhand, she got punished. Other players and coaches will likely take note. Noskova will trade power nicely here, but she hits pretty flat and that’s what Rybakina is looking for. Rybakina in 2.

Sorribes Tormo vs Martic :

Hard to believe these two haven’t played each other as long as they’ve been on tour, fitting they meet in good form though. Martic scored a nice come from behind win against Shelby Rogers, and losing momentum has become a theme for Shelby so she’ll have something to think about in the offseason. Tormo had a tougher situation against Burel, but the young French talent got a bit impatient. The problem with Tormo is that she yields control of the rallies, but she recovers to center court so quickly that you’re often torn between two shots. It’s a very badminton-esque approach to the game, and her lobs and moonballs and her ability to hit deep slices from way off court just frustrated Burel into errors.

Martic has a good shot here because with time, her offense can create opportunities. I’m not sure if she can outlast Tormo though in a 2-3 hour match, and that’s what will be required here. I’d back the stronger physical player here, and that’s SST. Sorribes Tormo in 3.

Alexandrova vs Friedsam :

Tricky to analyze Alexandrova matches. If she’s on, you lose. If she’s off, you win. That simple. Her groundstrokes are huge and she leans into them. Her serve is effective but she doubles a lot in her rough patches. Which one shows up for which set is something I can’t predict so well. OR CAN I? Friedsam had her hands full with Hibino, but lately she’s been able to outlast most opponents in a third. There’s really no reason here that she can’t beat Alexandrova if she throws in errors, but it’s going to be hard for her to outrun the pace that Alexandrova can bring in the end. Alexandrova in 3.

Shnaider vs Haddad Maia :

Haddad being such a favorite here would bother me, but I caught her first round match and woof is she playing well. Her serve is firing, and the pace and weight on her shots is really good. I would not be surprised if she made the semifinal at all. Zipping Maria is pretty unheard of, in fact Tatjana’s game is designed around making it extremely tough to run games on her. Shnaider being lefty and hitting big gives her a good shot to be in the match as far as optics, but I’m not sure her speed is enough to defend if Haddad serves as well as she did in the first round. Haddad Maia in 2.

Cocciaretto vs Waltert :

Why is Waltert a pickem when Mandlik has better wins? Sometimes when you’re asking the same question over and over, you’re just refusing to see the other side of something. Waltert really played solid against Mandlik, and her edge on the surface was fairly obvious. Her reward is a tricky but interesting matchup against Cocciaretto, who got the benefit of a very inconsistent Kvitova in round one. I don’t think -390 pricetag accounts for the real modeled outcome, but Cocciaretto at her best has the offense to keep Waltert at bay. Vague here because Cocciaretto wasn’t in great form coming in this week, and Kvitova didn’t exactly make it impossible to beat her. I think Waltert will be competitive here, with Cocciaretto’s serve netting her the match in the end. Cocciaretto in 3.

Pera vs Vekic :

Vekic should win this, but wow does Pera look good sometimes. I think Vekic can break down her backhand over time, but it’s scary the respect oddsmakers give Pera and her clay ELO (as my pal Gill keeps reminding me) is extremely high. So maybe it’s time to believe? I don’t see a huge divide between these two, but Pera seems sharper at the moment. Pera in 3.

Paolini vs Danilovic :

Paolini did a great job of outlasting Cirstea, and her recent run has her primed for a good run. That run goes through a tough path here though, with Olga Danilovic looming. A big key to winning at tennis is knowing how to loom. Paolini thrives on defense, and she has a pretty solid off-forehand when she does get inside the baseline. I think Danilovic can win this though, because her offense this week is not faltering much. It feels like she’s been competing on a lower tier than Paolini, but her game is big and that can negate Paolini’s speed. First big test for the qualifier. Danilovic in 3.

Dodin vs Jabeur :

Dodin was able to reverse the result against Janicijevic which is nice because I am so bad at typing her name, and also because it shows progress. Not much reward here as she plays a red-hot Jabeur who just shut down Rabat titlist Lucia Bronzetti. Jabeur in 2.

Muchova vs Podoroska :

Muchova had Sakkari shaking her head, smacking her head, chirping at her camp, and just generally not focusing on the task at hand. It isn’t really that she overwhelms her opponent, but she’s willing to hit the right shot in the right situation even if it might look a bit silly or require removing pace or taking a risk. Muchova is a baller, and it’s hard for a very technical and coached player like Sakkari to figure out what the right approach there is. Sakkari’s default when she struggles is to hit dropshots, and she landed quite a few in the net here. Muchova’s run likely continues, because Podoroska is not the same player she was when she made her heroic RG run. Here Muchova will have to supply most of the offense, but I think she will also frustrate Podoroska with her power. Worst case scenario, she can focus on Podoroska’s backhand. Muchova in 2.

Errani vs Begu :

I just am so impressed that Errani continues to win matches. She isn’t physically dominant in any way, but she applies pressure when she needs to, has great skill at net, and is willing to hit the ball in the court. Tennis can be flashy, but a lot of claycourt tennis is just about showing your opponent that you’re not going to miss. Errani’s run ends here, because Begu is in really solid form. She’s serving big, and crushing her groundstrokes. Begu in 2.

Fernandez vs Tauson :

Fernandez with a hard-fought win. Given her ceiling got her to a grand slam final, I’m open to her finding her best game again. She’ll need it this round since Clara Tauson is peaking at the exact right time. This section of the draw has just opened up with Bencic falling to Avanesyan, so this is a must-win. I think the best Fernandez can outlast Tauson, but I don’t think she’s there yet. Clara has the power and a much more efficient serve here, and I think the Dane should get past. Tauson in 2-3.

Jeanjean vs Avanesyan :

I really love seeing the junior standouts play the big names. They seem to perform way better against a big name than they do against a mid-level grinder, and I think it’s because coming from the juniors your skill level is extremely high but your overall weight of shot isn’t. Avanesyan was able to deal with Bencic’s skilled approach, and she really looked comfortable out there in big moments. It’s the type of win that’ll keep her going for a while, but there’s no time to celebrate as she has a very winnable second round here. Jeanjean has a sharp forehand and the crowd is behind her, but Avanesyan hits bigger off both wings, and she’s won a bunch of matches already this season. She was a bit surprised of course after the upset win, but she handled the whole thing very well so I don’t think the boomerang upset is incoming. Avanesyan in 2.

Samsonova vs Pavlyuchenkova :

Big hitting matchup here. Pavs is back on tour it seems, and she dealt with the older Fruhvirtova in straight sets. Here I think her rust will be exposed, as when she’s not the bigger hitter she won’t have as much time to prep her swings. Samsonova also serves fairly well, and she’s playing on fresh legs since she hasn’t had many deep runs this season. Could be close with compatriots playing, but Samsonova in 3 is what I’m expecting.

Sherif vs Potapova :

Potapova was really good in round one, never giving Townsend a moment to compose herself. Townsend started going for broke early, and it was a quick and efficient win for Potapova. Up next is a tough defensive test against Mayar Sherif. This one will require more resolve from Potapova, but it’s a match she should win. Sherif is just a little bit more conservative with her approach, and it means the match is on Potapova’s racqet. Potapova in 2.

Mertens vs Osorio :

Big fan of both these players and not much to separate them. Osorio survived a really sharp Ana Bogdan in three sets, and Mertens held off a late charge from Hruncakova to win in straights. This probably goes to the player who’s more stubborn, as both can defend all day. I’m guessing that’s Osorio, and she’s a big faster around the court too so she may earn errors. Osorio in 3.

Giorgi vs Pegula :

Simple equation here. Giorgi is going to push the pace and try to hit winners, and Pegula is going to try to slow things down and remain consistent. I don’t think Giorgi can beat Pegula in straights just hitting clean winners, but I worry a bit that she can wind up in a third set. This is the stage where Giorgi is usually done. She can outduel offenses, and hit through defenses, but a complete player like Pegula proves her undoing. Pegula in 2-3.

Garcia vs Blinkova :

Here’s the big test for Caroline. After a tricky match with the talented lefty Xiyu Wang, she gets the wall test. Anna Blinkova is really solid and in good form. After a finals run in Strasbourg, she started off with a straight set win against Bonaventure. For this one, I think Blinkova’s serve will end up being the key. Garcia isn’t going to be able to hit through her, and errors should push this to a third set, but Garcia’s aggressive returning and Blinkova’s lack of an offensive serve should let Caroline and the home crowd get the W. Garcia in 3.

Hunter vs Svitolina :

I don’t want to write Storm Hunter off, but Svitolina seems back to her old form. Her speed is just off the charts, and since she hits really hard, the fact that she doesn’t go for much offense doesn’t hurt her much. Hunter has had trouble closing out against power players and Svitolina sorta qualifies. Svitolina in 2.

Ostapenko vs Stearns :

I know who I want to win here which makes this tough. Stearns is really good, but she struggled with a rusty Sinakova in round one. This may have been nerves, but her loss to Stephens last week has me a little concerned. Stearns seems to dig in and play the big points well, but in between she can be a bit impatient and there is some heat-checking (going for quick or creative offense if you hit a similarly ornate shot on the last point). That doesn’t really work on the tour, and as good as her racquetskill is I’d like to see her work the points a bit slower when she does have the lead. For this one, the key is serving. Ostapenko is going to have a field day with Stearns second serves, but she has a good kick on the first and Jelena was pretty wild in her first match, getting angry “at everything” as one redditor put it aptly.

My problem with having players I want to see succeed is, when they’re in a spot where they could, I’m hesitant to say that they will. But luckily, it’s 2am, so let’s fuckin go Stearns. LETS GO PEYTON!!!! KICK THEM IN THE SHINS!!!

Sorry. I went a bit too far. Stearns in 3.

Vondrousova vs Kasatkina :

If ever two players who I expect to trade 6-0 sets, these are them. Unfortunately, Kasatkina is unlikely to win this match. Vondrousova is similarly consistent from the baseline, and with slightly more power. Darya won her match against Neimeier by playing possum, and giving Jule no pace to deal with. It almost backfired at times, and I think Marketa will be able to capitalize on this. Vondrousova in 2 close sets.

Stephens vs Gracheva :

Part of me always thinks Stephens is a risk, but she’s at a major and that’s where she really digs in. Her first set against Pliskova was flawless, a 6-0 win that basically folded Pliskova up. The second set was close, but Karolina’s expression was more expressionless than usual. If I’m playing a server in RG, I’m having my team use a few handheld fans to blow the smell of grass into the stadium. Look ahead, not behind <3 (Not really though, let go of the past, remain in the present moment and build the future you want from there). But yeah, Stephens and Gracheva have traded some matches this year but I think this is Sloane’s time to shine. Her defense is solid, and Gracheva is a bit better on hardcourt. Should be close because Stephens is willing to let her opponents dictate a lot of the time, but I’m guessing Stephens pulls away in the third just based off her weight of shot and defense. Stephens in 3.

Putintseva vs Zheng :

BIG SCOWL! Putintseva is probably going down this round, and that’s okay. When you lose to a superior opponent, it feels frustrating, but that’s the game. Zheng is playing really well, and serving solid. Zidansek came in in good form, and couldn’t really make any inroads at all. Putintseva is one of the best defenders on tour (Cornet style just extending rallies and using height and variety), but Zheng is good enough here to hit through that. Expecting one close set and one blowout. Zheng in 2.

Frech vs Rakhimova :

Frech is slightly favored here and I disagree. She has a bunch of wins recently, but Rakhimova beat her in Madrid last year. Rakhimova also just upended Sara Bejlek who I would expect to beat Frech. I’ll definitely tune in to this one because I might have Magdalena’s ceiling a bit lower than it is, but Rakhimova is really solid and hits a heavier ball than Frech, so I see her outlasting her in this one. Rakhimova in 3.

Shymanovich vs Sabalenka :

Great run for the qualifier, and it seems we have a new name on tour : ) Sabalenka is focused and one of the favorites for this event though. Barring a random visit from the double fault wizard, this is Sabalenka in 2.