2023 Roland Garros Women's Round One

Swiatek vs Bucsa :

The title defense of Iga Swiatek is about to begin, and the expectations are extremely high. Her opening match is against Cristina Bucsa, an extremely talented Spanish phenom with a huge forehand. Oddsmakers have set the spread for this match at 8.5 games. Swiatek enters this tournament having lost several matches in a row to Rybakina. Her other big threat, Sabalenka, is playing her best tennis and has just won her first major. Additionally, there are several ex-champions in good form in the draw. Swiatek also had a leg issue and had to withdraw from her previous event. Swiatek’s odds to win the tournament? -130. In short, this is not going to be easy, but Iga Swiatek is expected to win anyway. Even in her losses to Rybakina, which were comprehensive on hardcourt, there was that hint in the back of our minds that she’d wake up at any moment, that she just couldn’t lose. It’s hard to meet expectations, so if Iga navigates this tournament successfully, she’s starting to move into that Kerber Barty Osaka level of legendary.

This is supposed to be one way traffic, but I’m not sure that Swiatek will come out of the gates 100% ready to play. Her leg is reported to be fine, but I’m sure her team will err on the side of caution. The 8.5 game spread is preposterous, but Iga’s bakery has been posting record profits this year. Swiatek in 2, but I’d expect Bucsa to notch 5 games here.

In-Albon vs Liu :

Claire Liu is tricky to judge on clay. She plays an unorthodox style, but her net approaches and flat hitting make her a difficult test. It’s one that In-Albon should be ready for, having come through qualifying. Similar to the ATP, the WTA qualifiers field was one of the strongest I’ve ever seen. I expect a lot of the winners to advance into the second round, and gives In-Albon’s wins against Hibino and Schmiedlova, this level is within her grasp. Her enemy here will be nerves, because Liu does apply a lot of offensive pressure and also because she has a tendency to play wildly different from set to set. In-Albon in 3.

Peterson vs Ferro :

This is such a refreshing run from Ferro. She seemed like the next big thing from French tennis, but injuries and deciding set losses have hurt her career thus far. Peterson has only played one clay event, and lost first round to Bronzetti. That would be more of a good sign if perhaps Bronzetti were not playing the best tennis of her career. Ferro’s game still lacks consistency in patches, but she seems to be playing well this week. Peterson will have a hard time generating offense in this matchup, so it really will come down to percentages for Ferro. Her forehand is hard to read, and she generates good crosscourt angles. Her backhand can lack some height, but she redirects down the line well. It’s a must-win match for her if she wants to get her ranked towards the top 300 again (she sits at 462nd right now), but it’s doable with Peterson’s lack of matches. Ferro in 2.

Wang vs Bouzkova :

This one seems like it should be straightforward. Bouzkova has been winning on clay, including a win against Gauff. Wang has lost four straight. Marie at her best is just too tough of a defensive test for most players on tour to hit through, and she appears to be in good form for this event, with plenty of matchplay and a decent enough break to be fresh. Bouzkova in 2.

Azarenka vs Andreescu :

Depending on the time of year, this is a wildly different match. Azarenka seems to thrive in some conditions and against certain opponents, then other times of the year she just looks tired. Andreescu is the same. She’ll hint at getting back to her best form, then a switch in surfaces sends her back to the drawing board. She lost both of her matches on clay so far, and it makes Azarenka a slight favorite here. Azarenka lacks the power to really hit clean winners, but Andreescu’s stamina has been suspect since her last return from knee issues. As if there were more uncertainty needed, Azarenka withdrew from her last match against Keys without taking the court. These are two big names, but it appears that this week they will be non-factors. Azarenka in 3.

Kalinskaya vs Navarro :

Emma Navarro is finally starting to live up to the hype. This past week she nabbed wins against Martincova and Teichmann, and now she’ll see her biggest test yet. Kalinskaya withdrew from her last match, but she’s had wins against Mertens, Yastremska, Rybakina, Fruvirtova (the younger one), and Kalinina. In short, she’s ballin. Navarro is a bit more competent her on serve, but I’m not sure how much of a difference that will be. Kalinskaya has a tremendous backhand, and her ability to break her opponent’s serve has been the hallmark of her run. Navarro is slated to be competitive here based on the +129 pricetag, but Kalinskaya would be her best win yet. Seems like Anna should get through in the end. Kalinskaya in 3.

Zhu vs Davis :

This should take two hours. Lin Zhu is one of the stickier baseliners you’ll find, and she’s frustrated many opponents into errors over the past season or two. Only one match on clay though, a loss to Marino in Madrid. Davis has been very active and her trip to Strasbourg has seen her find her best level, despite ending in a Blinkova beatdown. It’ll be hard for either player to hit through the other, and neither serve particularly well which makes it even more impressive for them to be ranked 40th (Zhu) and 58th respectively. Davis being sharper should open her as a slight favorite though. Davis in 3.

Tsurenko vs Krejcikova :

If they weren’t contemporaries, I’d think Cornet or Tsurenko had copied each other’s games. Lesia has a way of choosing whatever shot is the most frustrating for her opponent, and her court position doesn’t seem to hinder her ability to infuse spin and depth. A lack of power is her only real setback, and that’s why Krejcikova has a good chance here to get her RG campaign off to a good start. Krejcikova has looked visibly frustrated during her losses this season, and the time it is taking for her to inch towards her former ability is likely the reason. Just when she gets going, a hot hand (like Ostapenko last week) comes in and rolls her. Barbora won’t take much solace from hearing it, but that’s the tour nowadays. Gone are the baseliners who are looking to eke out points before they get smoked by one of the top 3-4. There is depth, and the power vacuum that comes from Barty retiring so soon after Serena finally bowed out means that a lot of players with offensive prowess have seen the ball go through the hoop. The varied results on the WTA tour are not from a lack of ability, but from a plethora of talent. If Krejcikova hangs around, she’ll nab another big title, but expecting to play her composed style week after week is not realistic, because 2/3 tennis is a sprint and sometimes a big offense is going to get you. Anyway, Krejcikova can only lose this match to her own errors, so this is a must-win. Krejcikova in 2.

Kudermetova vs Schmiedlova :

Kudermetova has been on a tear lately, making the semifinals in Madrid and Rome. Schmiedlova is a big-hitting baseliner, so this may be closer than the +800 odds for her suggest, but it would be the biggest upset of the first round if she won. Expecting good stuff from Veronika this week, and she’s been pretty solid about winning the matches she’s supposed to. Kudermetova in 2.

Bolsova Zadoinov vs Kucova :

Bolsova is cool. It’s rare to see a player who’s generally off tour yet still brings her best tennis when she’s around, and after a solid run through qualifying, it’s great to see her get a lucky loser spot. A final round loss to Zidansek is understandable, as Tamara really should have been in the main draw anyway. Here Bolsova gets a player in Kucova who is likely to engage in the same style of tennis she wants to play, and this is another one that could go two hours easily. Kucova hasn’t been that active, and her ranking has dropped down outside the top 400. She has a pretty interesting style, with a two-handed forehand and a really solid ability to move the ball around on the run, but Bolsova should be a little more solid here and her stamina should be a key. Bolsova in 2-3.

Day vs Mladenovic :

Good to see Mladenovic get a wildcard, but her struggles are likely to continue here. Kayla Day played really well in qualifying, and considering hardcourt is her best surface it’s really good for the USTA to have her qualifying for RG so early in her career. She’s a lefty and with the normal lefty patterns, but her inside out forehand is really smooth so it’ll be tough for Mladenovic to deal with as a taller player. Kristina is a tremendous offensive talent, but the tour seems to have passed her by a bit. Qualifier wins are something I’m addicted to, but Day in 2.

Kanepi vs Keys :

Kanepi has been one of the most consistent producers in the majors, but lately her play has seemed almost human. A loss to Burel this past week isn’t so bad since Clara is playing at a good level, but Kanepi is likely to be a bit outgunned here. Madison Keys is extremely error prone and her huge swing benefits a little bit from having extra time on clay, but it also can go awry since the ball takes some bad bounces. Luckily, the surface should be pretty smooth in a first round, so the only way Keys can lose this is if she hits herself out of it. Keys in 2.

Kalinina vs Parry :

NO! CHANGE THE DRAW. If you’ve ever joined the Degensclub discord, you’ll mostly see Botic Goatic memes, me trying to make the conversation about handball, ADF goat speeches, Mochizuki poems, and Diane Parry pledges of allegiance. Parry has one of the most beautiful one-handed backhands I’ve ever seen, and every time she’s listed as an underdog I disagree. Her game is so solid when she wins, but consistency is hard to achieve on tour, and her serve has lagged behind the rest of her game. The court position required to stick with the one-hander also sometimes places her in moonballathons, which is not ideal for a shorter player. Parry had a good run this past week, winning the title in the 125k Paris event. Kalinina is just not the player you want to draw in the first round though. Anhelina leads the h2h 2-0, and the last one was a straight sets win. Parry is capable of playing at this level, but Kalinina’s offense can take the racquet out of her hands. Her returning is also pretty aggressive, so Parry will be under pressure that she didn’t really see last week playing against players like Yuan and Gracheva. I’ll be pledging allegiance, but Kalinina in 2-3 is the most likely outcome here.

Andreeva M. vs Riske-Armitraj :

Alison Riske-Armitraj hasn’t played since March, so there’s a good chance she’s not in her best form. That’s a good choice, as beating Mirra Andreeva is impossible anyway. The 16 year old phenom has been notching big-time wins on tour already (Haddad Maia, Osorio Serrano, Magda Linette) and she came through qualifying in straight sets. The sky is literally the limit for Andreeva though, as current reports indicate that she has not yet learned to levitate. Soon, I think. Her ability and composure at 16 are already off the charts, and I think she will win this match fairly easily. Andreeva in 2.

Rus vs Grabher :

This should be a really good match. Aranxta Rus was serving extremely well in qualifying, and her forehand was extremely fast. Grabher has reached the finals in Rabat, and it seems like she’ll perhaps enter this match as the favorite despite Rus’ solid play. I would expect Rus to win a set regardless of the level Grabher comes in at, because her lefty serve is something that takes a bit of time to adjust to, but Grabher is probably a bit more stable in rallies. Hard to call a winner here, but definitely a match worth watching. Grabher in 3.

Masarova vs Gauff :

The prices for Gauff are always inflated, and this situation is no different. Masarova is +350, but I don’t expect her to get rolled that easily. She has wins against Vekic, Bucsa, and Gadecki on clay already, and growing up and training in Spain means she’s very comfortable on the surface. Gauff has had a middling time on the dirt so far, with early rounds seeming easy enough but second round losses coming in her last two events against Bouzkova and Badosa. Cori has the physical edge here, and should get across the finish line in the end, but Masarova’s big hitting and height will give her a good chance to frustrate Gauff into errors. Gauff in a close 2 or 3.

Rybakina vs Fruhvirtova B. :

Uhhhh, draw people wtf are you doing? Brenda Fruhvirtova has stepped up after her sister’s slump began, and she rolled through qualifying in impressive form. This is a chance to play on a big stage, and the “she’ll be back here for sure” comments will roll, but there are a lot of players in this draw she can beat right now so drawing Rybakina is rough. Rybakina has barely lost this season, and is coming off a title run in Rome. Her serve and ability to hit huge is going to be tough on a junior phenom. Should be fun, but Rybakina in 2.

Kovinic vs Noskova :

Noskova hasn’t been producing as easily as expected on clay, and it’s made me revisit her forehand technique as a potential issue on the surface. Kovinic has been having a better season than her, and I think there is a chance that she is the favorite here. She has wins against Masarova, Errani, and Bronzetti. Noskova has mostly won her lower tier matches, and a loss to Parry last week (HI DIANE UR THE BEST KEEP ON TRUCKIN!) is less than promising. Kovinic won’t be able to hit Noskova off the court, but she’s really consistent on the dirt and has competed hard against big names in the past without blinking. The wrinkle in the upset prediction is that Kovinic withdrew last week against Krejcikova. Kovinic in 3, but her physical condition is a hmm.

Burel vs Sorribes Tormo :

Tormo was having a middling season, but she dropped down to the ITF level this past week to get her swerve back. She ended up making the finals, and enjoyed wins against Uchijima, Fernandez, and Cristian. It gives her a good shot to beat Burel, but it should be close because Clara is starting to near her peak again. Her and Tauson were the two big names for a while in the Next Gen scene, so it’s cool to see them both resurface around the same time. Burel usually wins via her opponents’ errors, and her baseline game is adept but this sort of plays into Tormo’s world. Sara is one of the best pushers to ever grace the WTA, and I mean that in the most positive way. She makes it completely obvious that she is not going to miss, and by the time she finally employs some offense, her opponent is basically toast. It’ll be a huge win for Burel if she can hit through that, and given Tormo’s run last week it should be very close. Burel’s wins are better on paper, but stylistically she’s beating offenses and Tormo will be a much different test. Tormo in 3.

Martic vs Rogers :

Pretty strong first round, and there won’t be much to separate these two. Both play behind their forehand, and both lose because their lateral movement is a little too slow for the top tour level. Martic has been sharper lately, and I expect her to win here. Martic in 3.

Alexandrova vs Tomova :

Tomova can make this close, but Alexandrova’s power should see her through. Her consistency is lacking, but this is a spot where she has the larger game. Alexandrova in 2.

Hibino vs Friedsam :

Hibino was really at her best in qualifying, and the lucky loser spot is pretty welcome. Friedsam is usually not playing this well, but since she is, she’s a favorite here. Anna-Lena has shown the ability to dig in late in matches, and her defiant confidence has gotten her into very good form seemingly out of nowhere. Hibino has the footspeed to earn errors, but I think Friedsam is a little more capable of scoring here. Friedsam in 3.

Shnaider vs Marino :

I won’t mince words. I won’t! I simply won’t! In all seriousness though, Shnaider is really good. She’s one of the biggest hitting lefties on tour, and she’s won a bunch of matches recently. Marino is much better on hardcourt, and this match should to the way of the lefty. Shnaider in 2.

Maria vs Haddad Maia :

Bella Haddad Maia has somehow started to struggle on clay, but in Rome she got herself together and beat Linette, Osorio, and Ruse before falling to Kalinina. Tatjana Maria is going to frustrate any opponent, but BHM is patient enough to work the point slowly and eventually get to net. I’d expect it to take a while, but Maria’s clay season is likely over and the grasscourt terror should be happy to move on. Haddad Maia in 2.

Kvitova vs Cocciaretto :

Tough one here. Kvitova skipped Rome, and lost first round in Madrid, where servers would be expected to fare their best. Cocciaretto has won two matches, but they were against Davis and Strcova who aren’t at their best on clay. I think she should win this, but Kvitova’s game is dangerous even when she’s rusty, so it’s relying on Elisabetta to be at her best on defense. I’ll close my eyes and believe. Cocciaretto in 3.

Walter vs Mandlik :

The tough ones don’t seem to end. Waltert and Mandlik had similarly impressive performances in the qualifiers, both winning in a tough 3-setter in the finals. Waltert is definitely more comfortable on clay, as most of her tour results have come on the surface, but Mandlik’s overall game might be a bit more reliable. This should go three sets because there aren’t really holes for either player to exploit nor is there a big edge in serving ability. It feels like Mandlik has a bit more experience and it might prove to be the big factor here, but really this could go either way. Mandlik in 3.

Pera vs Kontaveit :

Bernarda Pera has a top 10 ELO on clay, and every time I am reminded of that I blink twice like the gif guy. It just seems to be that an inconsistent but offensive lefty would have a tough time winning on clay, but she’s been doing fine in the past few months. Kontaveit has really dropped off the face of the tour, but in her return she was able to beat Parks which shows she’s not completely out of it. Pera won in their last meeting on clay in 2022, and her form gives her a good shot here. Their ceilings feel worlds apart for me though, so on a big stage I’m not sure Pera will perform. Tentatively, Pera in 3.

Yastremska vs Vekic :

Yastremska is an extremely talented but volatile player. She has a bunch of power, but controlling it is always the issue. With time, she can roll anyone. If that sounds like Donna Vekic also, it should. The crowd here should pay attention, as a lot of rallies here are likely to end with the ball being sprayed wide. Whoever gets the first full swing should be in control, and I think it’s hard to say that either one is having a better season. Yastremska moves better than Vekic, but Donna is way more consistent and employs dropshots well. Vekic has also been winning at tour level while Yastremska’s solid play this week has been at the qualifier level. This should be close, so it’s hard to gauge a winner, but Vekic in 3 seems likely if she’s herself.

Cirstea vs Paolini :

Paolini just won a title in Florence, leads the h2h 1-0, and Cirstea lost her last two matches. All that is enough to make me believe she has a shot here, but it’s hard to argue against Cirstea’s powerful offense. She’s one of the few players on tour whose results don’t seem to have a ceiling, and lately she’s looked more comfortable on the court this season in early rounds. Paolini should make this last a while, but Cirstea should pull through. Cirstea in 3.

Danilovic vs Baindl :

Generally Baindl would be competitive here, but Danilovic has been in rare form lately. The tall lefty plays some really solid tennis at the majors, and her forehand is big enough to hit through Baindl’s defenses. Should be a straight sets win for her, as Baindl hasn’t been terribly active. Danilovic in 2.

Janicijevic vs Dodin :

Oceane Dodin is one of the biggest hitters on tour, but the results are lagging behind her ability. Janicijevic just beat her in Strasbourg, so it’s a bit surprising to see Dodin listed here as a favorite. Perhaps once she’s familiar with an opponent, it’s easier for her to win. Dodin is tall a lanky so her movement isn’t the best, and knowing her opponent’s tendencies could help. Still though, Janicijevic is a tough defensive test and Dodin losing to her once means it could happen again. Janicijevic in 3.

Bronzetti vs Jabeur :

This is a tough draw. Bronzetti is currently in the finals of Rabat after a surprising 6-1, 6-1 win against Sloane Stephens, who was the favorite for the title. I wouldn’t even put it past Lucia to beat Jabeur as well as she’s playing, but getting past Ons has proven very difficult. It feels like Jabeur hasn’t been around a lot this season, but when I checked her results she won the title in Charleston and has a bunch of solid wins on clay, with losses coming just to Swiatek in a walkover and Badosa (who was playing great ball at the time). Her level here in a first round is a question mark, but Bronzetti is scoring all her points from the baseline so Jabeur should have a chance to work herself into the match. Jabeur in 3.

Sakkari vs Muchova :

Not entirely sure what to expect here. Sakkari should be great on clay with her fitness, but she doesn’t always look comfortable out there. For a while I really thought she’d take over the tour, but her problem-solving on court is lacking. That’s good news for Muchova, who doesn’t always have the aggression she should, but whose shot selection is often good enough to make up for it. Variety and a big forehand are her trademarks, and she actually beat Sakkari last year in straight sets. I expect this to be a bit closer as both are in good form, but if Muchova solved this puzzle last year while she was struggling a bit to find wins, she should have this done as well. Muchova in 3.

Podoroska vs Ponchet :

Tricky spot. Podoroska’s been struggling to find wins, and Ponchet’s been winning at a much lower tier. I think Nadia is the pick here, but the hometown crowd can make a difference and Podoroska is not a guarantee lately. Podoroska in 3.

Errani vs Teichmann :

Every season it seems like Errani will retire, and she just keeps winning. Here though, I think she has a tough stylistic matchup. Teichmann wins behind her defense, and being a lefty helps a lot in dealing with Errani’s slice-heavy game. Errani could win 1 set, but it’s likely that Teichmann wins the rest. Teichmann in 2-3.

Bondar vs Begu :

Oh ok, let’s just have all the tall servers play each other. Anna Bondar is usually good for an upset or two just behind her serve, but her powerful groundstrokes make her effective even in losing efforts. Here, that power and serving is matched, and Begu is probably the better mover between the two. Any Begu match is going to have a bunch of changes in momentum, but I think she’ll be able to score in more ways than Bondar. Begu in 3.

Linette vs Fernandez :

Oddsmakers set this at a pickem, and it has me scratching my head. Fernandez has pretty much lost nonstop of late, and her wins are against tour hopefuls and ITF level players mostly. Linette has gone W-L-W-L for much of her season, but I would expect her to win this. Maybe Fernandez is still incurring a lot of investment due to name recognition? It’s a puzzle, but the books usually don’t miss too much when they take a position. If I’m crafting a story, Fernandez did play decent against Stearns, but as a Stearns backer I didn’t really feel she had a shot to win. If Stearns plays Linette, I think it’s a pretty close match. Looking forward to being wrong here, but Linette in 3.

Tauson vs Sasnovich :

This should be good. Tauson was held back by injury for a while but she was unstoppable in qualifying and I think the run continues here. Sasnovich is a tricky out, but her power isn’t really there and Tauson should be able to hit through her. Clara also has a pretty effective serve, and as a frontrunner she’s one of the better players on tour. Expecting her to win two rounds here. Tauson in 2.

Jeanjean vs Birrell :

Leolia returns! The French Open has a way of manufacturing local heros, and Jeanjean’s forehand has a way of manufacturing winners. Her results have struggled since then, but it’ll be good to see her in the spotlight again. Fitness concerns and middling results make Birrell a favorite here, and I think she’ll advance in straights as well.

Avanesyan vs Bencic :

Avanesyan with a lucky loser spot is a welcome reward, and her heavy forehand will give her a decent shot here. She had her qualifying match all but locked up, only to see Kayla Day rattle off 3 games in a row down 5-3 in the third. Avanesyan had 4-1 against in the tiebreak, but Day was able to push through. It’s tricky to guess Bencic’s level, since she skipped a big chunk of the clay season. If she’s injured, Avanesyan can win. If she’s healthy, it should be a close but straight setted affair for the Swiss champ.

Samsonova vs Volynets :

Last season Samsonova was in the mix for major titles, this year it’s unclear whether she’ll win any given match. The expectations are there, but consistency is not. Volynets will be a good insight into Ludmila’s threat level here, and with Pavlyuchenkova in the next round Samsonova will need to find her best tennis quickly. I think she’s capable of that. Samsonova in 2.

Pavlyuchenkova vs Fruhvirtova L. :

Linda Fruhvirtova hasn’t been as automatic as expected on clay, and some of that may be due to burnout, or simply just her flat forehand production. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been off the tour for a bit, but she’s had some solid performances since returning and is probably favored to win this one. Fruhvirtova and Noskova both slumping is surprising, but you have to believe what you see. Pavlyuchenkova in 2.

Sherif vs Brengle :

Brengle will have a tough time here. Mayar Sherif is one of the better clay specialists, and her approach to it is power. Brengle is crafty, but she’ll get outhit here in the end. Sherif in 2.

Townsend vs Potapova :

Potapova should put an end to Townsend’s run here, but the extremely skilled lefty server is a threat. Potapova’s clay season is going excellent, with losses only to the likes of Sabalenka and Kudermetova. Her power is likely to be enough to get past Townsend’s defenses, but it’ll be tough to break Taylor’s serve while she’s fresh. Potapova in 3.

Mertens vs Hruncakova :

There are a lot of lucky loser spots here is what I’m realizing. Somehow, Hruncakova and Mertens have played twice already, so the chance of an upset here is slim. Mertens is playing well, and she’s slumped in recent seasons but is still one of the better gatekeepers on tour in the early rounds. Mertens in 2.

McNally vs Bogdan :

McNally is the more accomplished player here, but she lacks a bit of power so stylistically this could be tough. Bogdan hits huge off both wings, but her backhand especially is a danger-zone. She hasn’t been winning a ton of matches of late, but the ability is there and these conditions should be good for her. She’ll have to navigate Caty’s particularly skilled approach to the game, and there’s a chance that Bogdan’s slight inconsistency may hurt her, but this is one she should be able to win. Bogdan in 3.

Cornet vs Giorgi :

The movable object vs the stoppable force. Cornet can be an absolute wall, but she struggles with fatigue issues and injuries. Giorgi is one of the best offenses in tennis, but she can just as easily give away a set as she can win one. Giorgi is probably the player in better fitness here, and she should have the edge in a third as a result. It might not need to get there, as Cornet’s heroics have been a bit absent this year. Giorgi in 2-3.

Collins vs Pegula :

Pegula has really set herself apart from her compatriot in recent months, and Collins hasn’t played since Charleston where she lost a three-setter to Rogers. It’s hard to win when you’re not playing, and Pegula is not prone to upsets. This is the sort of match where I’d never be betting because Pegula will be so overpriced, but she should win in 2.

Garcia vs Wang :

Garcia has been quiet lately, but her home slam is a good chance to remind us she can ball. With Blinkova looming in the second round, this is a match she needs to win quick. I think she’s capable, but hardcourt seems to be a better surface for her at this stage in her career because it rewards aggressive returning and serving. Garcia in 2-3.

Blinkova vs Bonaventure :

Ysaline has a great offense, so you can’t count her out here, but Blinkova has made the finals in Strasbourg and is likely to be very motivated to continue that run here. Anna isn’t the biggest hitter, but she’s terribly consistent and should get this done whether it’s in 2 or 3.

Parrizas-Diaz vs Hunter :

NPD hits pretty flat, but she mixes up her approach on clay with some decent results. Unfortunately, she withdrew from her first match in Rabat, so there’s a chance she’s not at her best here. That’s good news for Storm Hunter, who was pretty solid in qualifying and would have had a chance anyway. It seems like this is Hunter’s to lose. Hunter in 2-3.

Svitolina vs Trevisan :

Get the extra big bag of popcorn. Svitolina is apparently back at her best, and is into the finals in Strasbourg. I expect her to lose to Blinkova, but given Trevisan’s withdrawal in Rabat, there’s a good chance for Svitolina to not be the more physically limited player here. Trevisan wins by outlasting her opponents, and she has a pretty good forehand down the line (I type this every tournament) which complements her lefty patterns nicely. It’ll be tricky to hit through Svitolina though, as she’s one of the fastest players on tour. I expect Svitolina to eventually level up her power in this one, and squeak out the win. Svitolina in 3.

Ostapenko vs Martincova :

Ostapenko looks so solid when she wins. She just hits the ball right past her opponents from everywhere on the court, and it leaves me wondering why everyone doesn’t do that. Martincova has a heavy forehand and Ostapenko is a flight risk, but Jelena should have this done in 2 sets if her head is on straight.

Stearns vs Siniakova :

Good match here. Siniakova is always dangerous on clay, and her speed will allow her to rally even with Stearns. Peyton Stearns is unfortunately (or fortunately) one of the best and most complete prospects I’ve seen in a very long time, and I think she’s primed for a good run here. Her match against Stephens in Rabat was one of the highest level contests I’ve seen in a while, and her forehand is very sharp. She has a great kick serve from the ad side, and her backhand moves the ball extremely well. When she’s in trouble, she’s shown the ability to employ height as well and slow the game down. Big fan. Stearns in 2.

Vondrousova vs Parks :

Parks’ willingness to dig in and fight on clay even though it’s not her natural surface is a great sign, and the results have come as well. Is this match winnable? Probably not since Vondrousova is such a good clay-courter, and because her defense is next level, but it should be a good test of Parks’ level. Expecting big things from the grass and hardcourt swing. Vondrousova in 2.

Niemeier vs Kasatkina :

Power vs grace. I think Niemeier is good enough to win this, but Kasatkina is able to keep rallies going and force errors better than most players on tour. It’ll take the performance of the year for Niemeier to win, and her play lately has been less than reliable. Kasatkina in 2-3.

Pliskova vs Stephens :

Stephens looked solid in Rabat despite ending with a blowout loss, and I think her defensive ability will let her get past Pliskova here. It’ll take a while, as Sloane plays a very conservative approach, but Stephens in 3.

Gracheva vs Galfi :

I thought Gracheva would continue to struggle on clay, but she’s doing fine. Galfi has a ton of power, and can pull the upset here, but it’ll take a lot of rallying and Varvara is unlikely to go away even if she drops a set. Gracheva in 2.

Zidansek vs Zheng :

Zheng hasn’t been at her best on clay, and it’ll be a good win if she can stop Zidansek from pulling the upset. Tamara was very mature while working through the qualifying draw, but unfortunately her backhand is a bit of a target at this point. Zheng should have a slightly easier time here finding points in rallies, and her serve is more effective than Zidansek’s so cumulative pressure should end up netting her the win. Zheng in 2-3.

Zhang vs Frech :

Zhang looks extremely rusty out there, and that gives Magdalena Frech a decent chance. She doesn’t have a ton of power, but if Zhang is making errors it won’t matter. Frech in 2 or Zhang in 3 if she wakes up.

Bejlek vs Rakhimova :

Tough opener for both. Sara Bejlek is a tiny left handed person who is primed to take the tennis world by storm. There is no hole in her game, and she moves the ball and defends the baseline as well as most of the players in the top 100. All this while still being a teenager, so ten years from now she’ll be a very difficult player to win a rally against. Rakhimova is only a few years older at 20, and it already feels like she’s a tour veteran. This should be a long one. Bejlek has a more varied approach, but Rakhimova is adept at simplifying the game. She hits a lot of cross-court balls and doesn’t make many errors off her backhand wing, which will help against a lefty. I do think her service games will be under a bit of extra pressure, and that could prove to be the slight difference here. Bejlek in 3.

Udvardy vs Shymanovich :

Shymanovich out of nowhere has qualified for her first major, and is favored against Panna Udvardy, a player who dominated the clay challenger and ITF tours a season or two ago. This is a big moment for her,and she seems ready for it. Udvardy has been losing a bit, so this really might be Shymanovich’s first major and first win all in the same week. Shymanovic in 2-3.

Kostyuk vs Sabalenka :

Omg this is a ridiculously good match for a first round. I’ve always wondered if a tennis ball can just break, but it doesn’t seem to happen. This match has potential for it. Kostyuk has been working really hard on her tennis and fitness, and the results have come. Unfortunately, Sabalenka has been doing the same work, and her game is just a much larger version of Kostyuk’s. Some excellent screaming and shotmaking should be present in this one. Sabalenka in two close sets.