2023 Roland Garros Women's Finals

Swiatek vs Muchova :

At this point, I sound like a robot. Another Swiatek match, another absurd price for her (-800) that will somehow end up seeming accurate. Her winning 2-0 in the last match was -350, which is outlandish for the semifinal of a Grand Slam. The key to these prices though seems to be that her plan B is her best game. Against Haddad Maia, Swiatek had some issues. She was down a break in both sets, despite winning the first comfortably. Haddad’s solid defense and ability to hit her forehand down the line on the run put some extra pressure on Swiatek’s shotmaking, and unforced errors abounded. What stood out to me is the way she played the points after these errors. On even terms, or with the lead, Swiatek is very aggressive, almost to the point of impatience. It makes her beatable. When she’s facing break points or is in a pressure moment though, she just goes to the heavy topspin forehand and backhand. She hits the ball hard and to safe targets until she basically winds up at net. Swiatek being able to have an almost foolproof plan B means that anyone who can’t match her power probably can’t beat her.

Haddad Maia had the lead late in this match, but one shot specifically sunk her hopes. She had 5-3 in the tiebreaker and had a very makeable volley, but she decelerated a bit and found the net. The slight opening was all Swiatek needed and she closed out with a flurry of power. For BHM, it’s a great result. She’s likely to earn a lot of points on clay most seasons, and given her height and solid play, I think she’ll probably stay around the top 10-20 for a while (she’s at #10 in the live rankings now). After some injury issues sidelined her career a few seasons ago, it has to feel really good for her and her team to be in this position right now. Speaking of injury issues, Karolina Muchova is back! After an abdominal issue caused her to miss 6 months, Muchova has made a return to form that sees her entering her first Grand Slam final. It’s a huge moment for her, but it hasn’t affected her play thus far. Muchova’s skills are legit, and her willingness to stick to her patterns and choices rather than letting the scoreboard dictate her play makes her a very tough opponent.

Muchova and Sabalenka was an extremely high level affair for over 2 and a half hours, and then something puzzling happened. Sabalenka’s power started to pay dividends, and she found herself up 5-2. In the next game, Muchova stayed steady, but still found herself facing a match point on serve. She hung on, and Sabalenka just sort of imploded. She started a somewhat odd dialogue with her box, and it seemed like despite having done the work to get in winning position, she still needed some more positive attention. It sounds so odd to say it, but the game was on the court and her focus appeared to be elsewhere, involved in the story of “what might go wrong”. The next service game was filled with errors, and besides the backhands in the net, more troubling was that when she had setups and Muchova darted the wrong way, Sabalenka pushed the ball long. It was hard to watch, but credit to Muchova for staying solid and allowing it to happen.

Sabalenka basically lost 5 games in a row to errors that I don’t really think she needed to make. She was playing great tennis and Muchova wasn’t really beating her outright from the baseline. Also, both players had been broken in every set (twice each in the second) so I’m not sure why the break while serving for the match set her off so much. One of the real difficult parts to watch was her suddenly struggling with her racquet tension. She switched racquets mid-game at least once, and also had one delivered from her box during the last games. At one point, the umpire was actually shouting her name to alert her that her box had yet another racquet for her to try, and while I’m sure there was some validity to the issue, it’s a really strange time to suddenly dislike your string tension.

In the second set of Haddad/Swiatek, I mumbled to myself that Swiatek actually seemed beatable. This triggered her raising her level and significantly lowering her risk-taking though. Against Muchova, Swiatek will need to temper her unforced errors because despite being the less powerful player, Karolina does not really give up cheap points. A big key for Muchova in her match against Sabalenka was her backhand slices; it bought her time when she was on defense and it also let her conserve energy during lengthy rallies. Sabalenka’s tall frame makes it tougher to get down low for these shots, but Swiatek also may have a slight issue with them. Iga has a tendency to never slice the ball from that low. It’s fine to swing through the ball and her backhand is great, but sometimes bringing the ball high over the net when there’s no pace can leave you in a bit of trouble. Her coaches will obviously talk this over with her, but Swiatek should probably start using her slice a bit on the lower shots and those that land shorter in the court. With her speed, she can definitely chip and charge a good bit against Muchova, who is solid but does much better with time.

Swiatek’s only lapse have came in the second set, and outside of this patch she’s been dominant. Rybakina exiting the tournament was a bonus, and Sabalenka getting taken out just clears things up even more. Muchova won their previous meeting (when Swiatek was 17), but Swiatek is an entirely different player now. She has the same level of offense that saw Sabalenka set to win against Muchova, but with fewer errors and much more agility. I think we’ll get a very high level contest, but I think Muchova will have a bit of trouble scoring on Swiatek. She’s the ideal opponent, because Muchova is excellent in every department, but she’s not really dominant in any of the exchanges. The difference between Muchova and Haddad Maia though is in ability to generate offense when she does have control. She will execute if given the same chances Haddad was, but I don’t think she will win a third if it gets there. Looking at the names she has defeated though, Sakkari, Begu, Avanesyan, Pavlyuchenkova, Sabalenka, there are a number of unique styles there and she has been able to navigate them all. I can only doubt a Swiatek blowout once more this fortnight and I think I will here. Gauff and Haddad Maia made inroads, and Muchova is more capable offense than both of them and a surprisingly sticky defender. This is going to be a great final, and Muchova will be a close second place finisher. Swiatek in 2-3. 2 if she sticks with the power, 3 if she gets impatient when she sees the finish line.