2023 Roland Garros Quarterfinals Day 1

ATP Singles :

Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova :

Getting engaged at someone else’s wedding is poor form. Wearing the same shirt as your friend to a party is hilarious, but also considered a faux pas. Somewhere in between those two fouls is whatever is going on here. Just when Muchova has rediscovered her best form, Pavlyuchenkova has done the same. Both are playing tremendous, but the spotlight and the story is going to be pilfered by one of these two big hitters. The odds for Muchova here are -170 and I think that’s pretty accurate. Their previous meeting in 2021 was in Madrid and went to two tiebreakers. Pavlyuchenkova won those but I think she’s the underdog in this one. Both players are capable of hitting the ball huge, but Muchova’s straight set dismissal of Avanesyan was really impressive. Avanesyan is a wall but Muchova’s power off both wings really was effective. This is a day match so we can expect the ball to be moving fairly quickly; this take legs out of the equation a bit, but even so Muchova will be the fresher player.

There isn’t really a hole in Pavlyuchenkova’s game, and the same can be said for Karolina so there’s not a clear plan for either to really utilize. This is the first in a series of ridiculously good matches, because we’re at the stage of the tournament where everyone is playing at or near their peak. Expecting tiebreakers here and a very close match. Muchova in 3.

Svitolina vs Sabalenka :

Sabalenka had things under control against Sloane Stephens, up 5-0 in the first set. Somehow, she found herself in a tiebreak. That’s the sort of variance that was a hallmark of Aryna’s game in the past, but recently she’s settled into a good focused patch so it’s interesting to see her struggling a bit. Stephens is tremendous with her movement and ballstriking, but that type of lapse with a lead is something you can’t afford against Sabalenka’s next opponent. Elina Svitolina has to feel great to be back in the quarterfinals of a major. It’s an incredible feat for any athlete to compete at the professional level after having a baby, and she’s looking like a contender for her second title in only her second match back. Kasatkina and Svitolina played a ton of good quality rallies, and in the end it was Svitolina’s ability to hit through the court that gave her an edge. Kasatkina had to look to outlast her and it took many more shots for her each rally to finally score a winner. When Svitolina was able to reset to neutral with a big swing or a deep lob, it really felt like a heavy change in momentum. I’d have Sabalenka -300 against Kasatkina, but Svitolina’s power makes her a different challenge.

Sabalenka opened around -428 against Svitolina, which feels a bit inflated to me. Svitolina has a pretty decent serve, and a ton of experience. Their previous meeting went to three sets (2020 in Strasbourg), and though Sabalenka is a much better player now, she has had some difficult sets in this tournament against much weaker players. Stephens isn’t going to counter-punch as aggressively as Svitolina, and the marathon rallies against Kasatkina have her in solid form. Sabalenka is the frontrunner, but given her first set against Shymanovich and Stephens there is a decent chance this could wind up in a third. It’s funny how things change from round to round. After Rakhimova/Sabalenka I thought Aryna was basically going to reach the finals, but after the Stephens match I’m not sure she will keep the ball between the lines long enough to beat Svitolina. Svitolina is really adept at putting the extra ball into play and she’s on a 9 match win streak, including the Strasbourg title. Sabalenka is fresh off her first major title and she won the title in Madrid. Probably going to get some pushback on this but I think Svitolina pushes this into a third and I think she’ll be the more focused player if it gets there. Svitolina in 3.

ATP Singles :

Djokovic vs Khachanov :

Like the cartoons that play before a movie, Djokovic Alcaraz is about to begin. Karen Khachanov is quietly cruising through this draw, including a fourth round win against Lorenzo Sonego where Khachanov just met every single defensive challenge presented. Similar to Ruud, Khachanov just doesn’t miss the court very much, and his physical strength is off the charts. He has a huge serve, and his match on clay last year with Djokovic went to a third set. Yet the odds for this match have been set at -2500. That price is basically saying “pls do not bet”, and it’s good advice. Djokovic’s record this year is 24-4, so the random losses are prevalent enough to make his astronomical prices a less than profitable endeavor anyway. Still, Khachanov being considered an afterthought is both absurd, and accurate.

Djokovic had a safe fourth round against Juan Pablo Varillas, who is incredibly steady but not particularly dangerous to Djokovic. He doesn’t serve big enough to pressure Novak into errors, and playing Djokovic for the first time is difficult since the workload out on the court is something you have to experience to be prepared for. The greats look playable on tv, but when you’re out there and they’re just not missing it can get frustrating very quickly. Credit to Varillas, he gave the crowd a good show, but he just couldn’t hurt Djokovic. Khachanov can, and can’t. Karen’s serve is almost big enough for him to hold serve. They’re playing a day match, so the ball will at least be moving at a normal pace even in the slow conditions. Khachanov’s backhand is really consistent and he can take the ball down the line with pace, but he telegraphs his forehand a bit so Djokovic should be okay defensively. I don’t think this will be as one-sided as the odds suggest, because Khachanov can hang in long rallies and doesn’t make a ton of unforced errors. He has a poor record against Djokovic (who doesn’t), but familiarity with an opponent does let you compete at your best in a big-time situation. Khachanov is becoming a gatekeeper for the semis and finals of majors, but unfortunately Novak is a resident. Should be the closest match Djokovic has had yet, but with his elbow issue seemingly gone, there’s not a clear path to beat him. I expect Khachanov’s solid play will net him one set if Djokovic’s level lapses or errors abound, but that’s probably as good as it gets. Djokovic in 4.

Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas :

These are the only two players whose games are not affected by the night-time conditions, so it’s fitting that they’ll be playing the last match of the day. Carlos Alcaraz is scary good. Musetti came into their match playing lights-out tennis and had just straight setted Cam Norrie, genuinely making him look like a lower tier player. Halfway through the first set, it was clear that he could barely win a game against Alcaraz. Carlos’s defense and consistency are just off the charts. When his opponent leaves the ball short or doesn’t hit with pace himself, Alcaraz is hitting the ball right past them. His inside-out forehand in the fourth round was frighteningly quick, leaving Musetti standing still on numerous occasions. If you’re even competing even from the baseline, you then have to deal with his dropshots, which are varied and accurate. Every single point you win against him requires effort and accuracy, and there are only 3 matches between him and his first Roland Garros title so he doesn’t have to conserve or budget his energy output at this point.

Before their match in Barcelona, Tsitsipas represented an intriguing challenge for Alcaraz. He has a great serve and a huge forehand, so Alcaraz’s defenses were set to be test. He proved very capable though, and coming into this match it’s unclear where Tsitsipas can hurt Alcaraz. In the slightly colder night conditions Alcaraz will have more time defend, and Tsitsipas’ backhand is still a liability. With Carlos’ backhand improving almost constantly this season, the cross-court exchanges are likely to favor Alcaraz. Since Tsitsipas’s main issue on his backhand is lack of depth, it’s likely that he’ll see a healthy dose of dropshots. Stefanos is fast enough to run these down, but over the course of the match I think Alcaraz’s power and variety will make a big difference. It’s hard to just completely write someone as good as Tsitsipas off, but he has holes in his game that he needs to fix before he wins a major title, and Alcaraz is currently the level necessary to win one. One thing I do expect from this match is that Tsitsipas will play regardless of the scoreline. Should be a close but somewhat one-sided affair. Alcaraz in 3.