2023 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles Round Four Day 2

ATP Singles

Jarry vs Ruud :

If you watched Geneva last week, you saw the scariest version of Nicolas Jarry that the tour has ever seen. He’s always been a dominant server, but his baseline game seems to have become consistent out of nowhere. That consistency hasn’t come at the expense of his aggressive shot selection either. Somehow, Jarry is ballin and it is a welcome sight.

At the same time that Jarry leveled up, Casper Ruud began finding his form again. He’s been such a consistent performer at times that when he loses, the whole conversation is about him. It all started with a lopsided loss to Shelton in Cincinnati last season. We now see that this is not so bad. He’s lost as a favorite against Daniel, Arnaldi, Struff, and Garin. These losses may seem like issues, but I think it’s just very difficult to maintain a high level on tour. Burnout is real, and we don’t always know the physical condition and motivation of the players. It’s a bit out of character for Ruud, because he has always taken a very professional approach to matches, but as he gets a few major finals and a number of 250 titles under his belt, the pressure of expectations fades. If he never wins another match, his legacy as top player on tour is already cemented. At this point, it’s entirely feasible that his team is looking to peak at the majors, since that would be the last big feather in his cap.

Ruud is playing near his best tennis this week, despite dropping a few sets on the way here. Zhizhen Zhang has become a mainstay on tour which is a pretty great transition from the Challenger level, but him winning a set against Ruud isn’t cause for alarm bells for me. Zhang has a very powerful serve and goes huge on his groundstrokes, so at times he’s just going to be unplayable, and more importantly he’s the type of opponent who is more dangerous on a big point. Jarry is going to bring a similar level of pressure and risk, and after winning in three heroic sets in Geneva he’ll be feeling confident here.

The market for this one opened with Ruud at -214, and it has gone all the way down to -173. I disagree. These are slower conditions, Jarry has played a lot of tennis in the past few weeks, and Ruud is playing well behind his forehand. Jarry’s backhand is more dangerous here, but it feels like a spot where he is even at best. Just considering that Ruud has been given a ton of footage to review with his team makes me think he might return a bit better, and the slower conditions mean the rapid fire baseline rallies they exchanged in Geneva (ultra fast conditions for clay) will be a bit more subdued. We’ve all seen these conditions lend the more stable player an edge as matches drag on, and I think that will be the case here. Jarry’s serve and power can’t be dismissed in straight sets, but I think that this will be an extreme physical test and that Ruud’s ability to create off his forehand will be very useful once both players are tired. Ruud in 5.

Rune vs Cerundolo :

Rune had a simple match against a very similar but weaker player, and he made it look easy. Olivieri couldn’t really get anything going, and Rune was able to remain neutral in rallies until he got a full swing. Once he did, it was usually only 2-3 shots before the point was over. Him being so technically sound makes it really hard for players without a big offense to beat him. It just becomes a matter of whether Rune will put in the work, and his strength and conditioning are very good, and his energy levels are Space Jam stuff at times. Here he has a difficult task, but one I think he can handle. These two met in 2019, with Cerundolo winning in straights. They are two entirely different players now though, and it’s Rune who looks much sharper now.

Cerundolo had a tough test in Taylor Fritz, but I thought fatigue would be the way he lost. He seemed fresh throughout, and that made life very difficult on Fritz. I don’t love Taylor’s demeanor on court when he’s losing, he’s very emotive and complains about the conditions and bad bounces and overall it just gives a lot of belief to an opponent. If you are easily moved by emotions, it’s better to sort of hold it together until it bubbles over. One, because it will gradually let you practice not being so reactive. Two, because a real big rageout scream or racquet smash can change momentum and rattle an opponent. It’s not classy, but when you’re already losing, anything that changes the feel of the match in the court has potential to help. Whining does very little, and the crowd in Paris is not a big fan of that at all. The crowd was fairly respectful, and Fritz’s shushing from his match against Rinderknech did not seem to be an issue with them. McEnroe remarked that most of the fans were probably unfamiliar with Fritz, which is actually absurd, but standard.

The Tennis Channel team does not seem to actively follow the tour, and their view of things is almost always a bit reductive and puzzling. McEnroe also did not seem to know that they had changed the balls this year, and honestly I wind up muting tennis audio far too often because of announcers. It makes it really refreshing actually to hear Gil Gross working a match. Is this an article about Gil Gross? Maybe. Gross seems like a kid who would insist on telling me that baby carrots are actually made from full-sized carrots, but the effort he puts into analyzing tennis and respecting the game is much appreciated. He actually was mid-sentence and said “and I’ll hold that thought because play is about to resume.” What? Unheard of. Announcers not talking over the rallies? Announcers not telling us exactly what we just saw? Announcers teaching us about tennis technique and matchup issues? Announcers not … talking … with weird pauses … because they think … that’s what announcers do? Announcers not leaving out half their sentences because they think we’re listening along to their internal monologue? Announcers who are familiar with the players on tour outside the top 100? Wow. Just wow. Anyway, Gil seems like he’d be fun to do a puzzle with, and I’m glad that he’s getting somewhere in the tennis world because he really seems like a fan of the game.

I don’t think Cerundolo can win this match. Against Fritz, he dominated things behind his dropshot and forehand. Fritz moves forward poorly on clay, something I honestly didn’t realize. He won nearly no rallies where Cerundolo used it. At the same time, he couldn’t get to Cerundolo’s forehand, so what was he covering? The reason he fell victim to both these balls is because he had zero variation on his backhand. Usually when I’m griping about Fritz, I exaggerate a bit, but I don’t think I saw him hit one backhand up the line during a neutral rally. He just kept trying to infuse a little bit of depth and height cross-court, but it became predictable very early on. The backhand up the line is bad because it opens up the cross-court forehand for Cerundolo, but you still have to hit it a good enough chunk of the time to keep your opponent from camping in the backhand corner, which is what Francisco did for the entire match. This just won’t be an option against Rune, because he has a way better backhand than Fritz, and because he has the speed to run down dropshots. He’s also a clay specialist in terms of his background, so he’ll be comfortable in long rallies where Taylor wasn’t.

I think Cerundolo is the Fritz in this matchup, because he has a ton of power but I think he has to look to score all his own points. Rune is fresh, and won’t give him many unforced errors. This should be a very close match in terms of the scoreline, but I think Rune’s speed and stability get him through here. Rune in 4.

Etcheverry vs Nishioka :

Nishioka and Seyboth Wild put on a great show. The Brazilian phenom ran out of gas, but he really gave us a ton of excitement in the first week of this event. For Yoshihito, these points are incredibly useful. He doesn’t have many clay points from last season at all, so this gives him a good chance to improve his ranking in the hardcourt season where he’s sure to win a handful of matches in the hot conditions. I usually find myself talking about what a great result people are having once their tournament is over, and I do think this is Nishioka’s last round. He’s been winning by outlasting his opponent, and there does not seem to be an end to Etcheverry. Coric and Etcheverry were expected to play an exhausting contest, and they did. The difference in power was clear from the start though. Etcheverry plays like a baseliner but he’s 6‘5” and he is really crushing the ball at this tournament. Coric hung tough, but he just couldn’t get a ball by him.

Etcheverry will need to be patient in this match, but I think he can break down Nishioka’s forehand. The loopy returns work well against shorter players, but Etcheverry should be able to lean into them since he’s a bit taller. His edge on serving is also huge, his delivery was a big key in keeping him fresh while Coric struggled to hold serve without putting in a ton of work. Nishioka is crushing his backhand, and that flat pace could prove a bit tough for the taller player, but I don’t see it winning him the match. Overall, I just think these guys have been competing in two different weight classes thus far, and Etcheverry is the pick. Etcheverry in 3-4.

Dimitrov vs Zverev :

Dimitrov is the ultimate trickster. Just when we think he’s too injury prone or too Dimitrov to be a threat on tour, he breaks out his best tennis. He’s been lights out this week, dismissing contenders in good form in a way that throughout most of his career he has never done. This is probably his best chance to beat Zverev, but the last 3 matches have gone Zverev’s way. If I had to guess, it’s because Zverev’s backhand is so stable. He doesn’t really go for a lot with it most of the time, and that means against Dimitrov’s slice he’s completely safe. If we eliminate danger on one wing entirely, then it’s forehands and serves. Zverev’s serve has double fault issues, and his location is poor, but he has a ton of power and returning it is easier said than done. Dimitrov has a huge edge on the forehand here, and he’s using that remarkably well this week.

It’s hard to watch Zverev play and think he’s going to beat Dimitrov. Him and Tiafoe played a solid match, and Tiafoe is a great player, but it wasn’t high quality stuff. The rallies seemed slow, both players seemed to be concentrating (and unfortunately not concentrating) on technique and on hitting the court. The wind and slower conditions just made the game seem slow, and I think the pace ended up frustrating Tiafoe into errors. Dimitrov has the ability to infuse pace off both wings and he’s been doing so this week. It’s the sort of match that I think Zverev is at risk of becoming frozen in. If Dimitrov can get the first set, I think he can win. Grigor has proven to be a dangerous frontrunner this week, and Zverev can get a little deer-in-the-headlights if he’s behind in the scoreline or if his serve isn’t working. I do think Zverev has been a bit more aggressive since his return from injury, so this should be pretty even in my eyes. In classic Dimitrov prankster style though, he has me thinking he’s going to win. Dimitrov in 4-5.

WTA Singles

Swiatek vs Tsurenko :

Ok Iga. I see that you are reading these. After predicting that Wang’s power and offense would get her 6 games, Swiatek chose to deny her a single game. I don’t think I’ve seen this type of blowout tennis ever. 0 games, to someone who beat a solid mid-tier tour player in Peterson. It makes my job easy here, because who can possible beat Swiatek? Rybakina is out of the tournament, everyone else is having to work extremely hard to win their matches, and Swiatek is going to be completely fresh for the quarterfinals. She has a tricky opponent here, because Tsurenko has beaten Krejcikova and Andreescu, but what does it matter? We are left wondering how many games Tsurenko can win, and if we have time to make a sammich and still make it back in time to catch the first set.

Tsurenko is very solid, and moves the ball well. Picture an Alize Cornet with a little more power and a bit less physicality. She’ll be a good opponent for Swiatek because there’ll be fewer unforced errors than Wang made, but it feels like Swiatek is not going to lose to her own errors and Tsurenko can’t serve well enough to hold onto any leads she may get. Swiatek in 2, with Tsurenko winning 4-5 games.

Sorribes Tormo vs Haddad Maia :

Puzzling line on this one as Sorribes Tormo is at just +120 for the match. I expected something more like +160. SST has been given a walkover after Rybakina withdrew with an illness. Haddad Maia had to play an extra match and it was a war with Alexandrova that she barely won, but I think she’s more well equipped to score in this matchup. Tormo has every shot in the book, and will extend rallies, but her serve isn’t as strong as Haddad Maia’s, and she doesn’t really hit the ball hard enough to get through the court. I’m guessing I don’t see something here, as SST has won the last few matches between the pair, and they’re ranked 120 spots apart so there’s a matchup issue I’m not seeing. Very hesitant to go with my gut on this one, but Haddad Maia has the defensive ability to hang even with Sorribes Tormo, and I think her forehand will give her the ability to create as the match drags on. Haddad Maia in 3.

Schmiedlova vs Gauff :

There have been a lot of matches this week where things were decided early. Both players seem very willing to engage in extended baseline rallies in the early going, but as one player proves slightly more resilient, their opponents have slowly deviated into trying to generate offense on more and more shots. This might be a decent plan B on hardcourt, but it’s near impossible on clay. If you could just smoke the ball and create angles and hit through the court, you’d be doing it as plan A, and you’d be a top 5 player. As it happened today, Kayla Day turned towards forcing things a bit. Schmiedlova was very steady to start the match and she hits a bit bigger than Day, so it wasn’t the worst choice, but it resulted in the scoreline getting out of hand quickly. In the second, Day made some progress and broke back a few times, but she couldn’t get ahead in rallies and that makes holding serve in the WTA very difficult because almost everyone on tour is tremendous returner.

Gauff had a ridiculously tough test in round one. Mirra Andreeva is so technically sound at such a young age. She really was slightly better in the first set because of it. Gauff made a few neutral ball errors that Andreeva just didn’t. It was clear though that Gauff was the bigger hitter. After winning the first in a thrilling tiebreak, Gauff was a bit looser. Having the pressure of the lead gone can be tough, but it also lets you swing freer. It became clear that Andreeva couldn’t hit through Gauff, and the match became a lopsided affair. This is the big hallmark of Gauff’s game, improving as the match goes on. Her training is great to be so strong physically, and her backhand, when she lets it fly, is a laser. If you let the ball get above her elbow height, she’s likely to just hit a clean winner. This next match is tricky because it’ll take a long time, but Gauff should be slightly stronger again. Schmiedlova has been playing solid tennis but she’s been the bigger hitter in most of the matches, and here it’s even. Expecting Gauff to win in two close sets.

Pera vs Jabeur :

This is a career changing run from Bernarda Pera. The clay ELO is proving accurate here, as she was able to outlast Elisabetta Cocciaretto in a wildly thrilling match. In the end, she was just a little more able to win short points, and her forehand cross is proving to be a big weapon when she’s on her game. It’s a big ask for her to beat Jabeur with that shot, especially since Ons has just gotten some invaluable training against another lefty. Olga Danilovic managed to push things to a third, but the problem with winning behind a big offense on clay becomes clear in a third. Jabeur has a ton of power and experience, and she’s fairing well this week. I do think that if Danilovic can win a set, Pera should be able to, but thus far Pera has been the bigger hitter in her matches and I’m curious to see how she trades power with Jabeur. She’ll have a bit of confidence at least, since she won their previous hardcourt meeting (too many seasons ago to be completely relevant) in straight sets. I just think Jabeur will be able to rush Pera and it will make all the difference. Jabeur in 2.