2023 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Singles Round Four Day 1

WTA Singles :

Pavlyuchenkova vs Mertens :

After an extended stretch of middling results, Pavlyuchenkova appears to be back in form. She’s been taking the long route to the finish line, requiring third sets in the last two rounds, but wins against Samsonova and Potapova are really high quality stuff. She’ll have a chance at another great win in the next round against Elise Mertens, who is collecting her own Pokedex of big names. Mertens beating Osorio in two was a good sign, but continuing her dominance against Pegula puts her near the peak of her performance results-wise. Generally, I’d like Mertens against Pavlyuchenkova, but I’m not sure how much weight to put into the Pegula win. Jessica really wasn’t at her best, and it seemed like she was fighting off the ball rather than directing it. Pegula hits a very flat ball so if she’s struggling with her timing on clay things can go bad quickly. Mertens played solid but I felt like it was a team effort with Pegula playing poorly to complement Mertens’ play.

Pavlyuchenkova has a more traditional swing production and hits the ball very hard. Mertens is faster, but Pavs has a way of keeping the ball out of her opponent’s strike zone and her weight of shot can be effective against someone like Mertens who is more about skill and accuracy than power. There’s really no way this won’t be close. I’m cheering for Mertens but I think Pavlyuchenkova has gotten through higher quality matches thus far and she might be slightly more experienced at this level. Pavlyuchenkova in 3.

Muchova vs Avanesyan :

This round, I guess unsurprisingly, contains a lot of very solid baseliners. I expected Begu to get to a third set against Muchova, but it was evident early that Muchova’s speed around the court was going to play a major difference. There have been a few matches in the past round where lateral speed (or slight lack thereof) was the deciding factor (Hurkacz/Varillas, Fritz/Cerundolo, Tauson/Avanesyan) and that was the case here. For Muchova, this is a very welcome run at a major event. She’s had some huge almost-results at majors, and her results have suffered a bit afterwards. Here is another chance to make the quarterfinals, and she’s a pretty heavy favorite. But is she?

Avanesyan seemed outmatched early in her match against Tauson, and Clara was able to hit through her a good portion of the time. Avanesyan had trouble defending her serve, and plan B went into effect. Luckily for her, outlasting Tauson worked. Elina dug in and Tauson started to force the issue, making dropshot errors and sending forehands long. The third set was competitive but Tauson’s narrative about her legs being tired had become fairly public, and she was forcing the issue an awful lot. It’s possible, but it’s really tough to come up with a whole set of offense on slow clay. Avanesyan dug in, and to her credit there was a good 30 minute stretch where she actually didn’t miss the court. The result was pressure on Tauson’s serve, and they traded a number of breaks until ultimately Avanesyan got through.

Muchova having proper stamina means she can win where Tauson ran out of gas. I think it’ll be a lot tougher than the -400 pricetag indicates though. Avanesyan has a heavy forehand, and I’m not exaggerating when I say that she barely missed a shot in her last set of tennis. Working against her is the 12 hours she’s spent on court this week, and Muchova possessing a lot of variety in her offense. It’s just a tough opponent to play for the first time, but given what we’ve seen from Elena so far she’s likely to play her best. Muchova in two, with the second set likely being the closer one.

Svitolina vs Kasatkina :

Svitolina played Blinkova a week ago in the finals of Strasbourg. The odds were even for both. It was a blowout. They played again in the third round, which Svitolina coming in at -340. This time, she barely won in a marathon 3-setter. The quick turnaround runback on tour produces some of the wildest deviations in pricing and results, but it seems like Blinkova’s familiarity with Svitolina’s patterns allowed her to make adjustments. She was a bit more aggressive, and seemed to be a half-step ahead of Svitolina during rallies. The question for Svitolina here is how much she has left. Elina is 6-0 against Kasatkina, although none of the matches are within the last 3 seasons. That type of dominance is due to their similarity. Svitolina and Kasatkina are both extremely consistent, and win from making it clear to their opponent that they’re not going to end the rally. Forcing the issue is tough against them because they have great speed and good defensive skill. The big difference is Svitolina hits the ball very hard, and Kasatkina gets through with finesse.

Kasatkina is nearing her best level this week and that makes her a favorite in this matchup for one of the first times ever. She had a very easy match in the third, since Peyton Stearns made a number of errors and seemed to get rattled by the occasion and the scoreboard. She’ll be the fresher player since Svitolina is coming off a title run, but overcoming a player who has always beaten you, and who has an easier time scoring points during neutral rallies can be really difficult. Svitolina’s serve isn’t likely to score a ton of points here, but it’s stronger than Kasatkina’s. This is a bit like the Gauff/Andreeva match to me because I’m a bit more excited to see it play out than I am confident that I know what’s going to happen. Svitolina is Gauff in this one, a bit faster, bringing more power, but not as technically sound with her groundstrokes. Kasatkina is Andreeva, tremendous skill and consistency, but it’ll be hard to end rallies. If Kasatkina wins, I expect it to be in straight sets. Svitolina in 3 is what I’m expecting though.

Stephens vs Sabalenka :

I thought Rakhimova might give Sabelenka a little trouble, but my worry that her old form might return is unfounded, like most worries. Rakhimova went up an early break, but Sabalenka is crushing the ball this week and the slow courts are giving her plenty of time to set up. Having a huge serve is a big boost in this next match, because Stephens is also thriving in these conditions. Sloane doesn’t really play with a sense of urgency, but she’s such a good athlete that she’s able to run down most shots. Putintseva extended rallies and was really effective at working multiple shots and remaining patient until she could employ a dropshot, but overall Stephens was having success while doing less. When she gave up a short ball or was out of position, it felt like Putintseva was under immense pressure to try to end the rally right there. When the same opportunities came for Stephens, she was able to just hit heavy forehands and usually wound up well inside the baseline on the next shot if the ball came back at all. It’s a benefit she won’t have in this matchup, and I’m having a hard time imagining her winning this match.

Stephens’ defensive ability and power will let her play even against Sabalenka in a lot of rallies, but a lot of the points she created against Putintseva won’t be here in this one. Sabalenka having power doesn’t make her any better technically than Putintseva, but it means she doesn’t have to focus as much on depth on these returns. Stephens should be competitive but I think she’ll lose by a break in each set. Sabalenka in 2.

ATP Singles :

Khachanov vs Sonego :

This is going to be really good. Generally, Rublev is regarded as a better player than Khachanov. He has had higher rankings, more titles, and his game is more flashy since his groundstrokes are huge and his noises are notorious. Here though, Khachanov is likely a tougher test for Sonego. Sonego was going uphill against Rublev, but he was the player getting more benefit out of his serve. Rublev earning his points is fine, but against a server it can create some pressure over time. Khachanov’s delivery is at least as good as Sonego’s, so it comes down to which player is more solid from the baseline. For me, that’s Khachanov. He has a better backhand, and his forehand is a bit more about arm & muscle than technique but he hits with a heavy Western grip that works well on clay. Sonego is much more efficient in the frontcourt and his dropshots are tremendous, but he’s going to need a mercurial performance here to win.

These two have split matches on clay, with Khachanov winning the most recent one. They’re obviously not the same players they were in 2019, but both have made similar amounts of improvement so I think there’s a good chance that the Rome 3-setter is a decent data point. Since Kokkinakis was able to win a set and be competitive in the others, I expect that Sonego’s similar serve/forehand combination can make inroads. Khachanov doesn’t deviate from plan A, and periods where his opponent redlines are acceptable to him and his team. I think Sonego will win a set or two, but the quantity of offense he’ll need to come up with against Khachanov may see him come up a bit short. Rublev has bigger groundstrokes, but his lateral movement is poor compared to Khachanov so I think defense beats offense here. Khachanov in 4-5.

Djokovic vs Varillas :

Djokovic needs to be careful here. Varillas has appeared completely overmatched in every single match in this tournament, and that seems to be when he strikes. Hurkacz was ahead early and looking solid, but I didn’t think it would last. Varillas was putting a lot of returns in play, and Hurkacz makes a lot of rally ball errors on his backhand. I’d say he’s up there with Madison Keys for casual swings that sail long. It’s good to remember that most guys his height can’t even come close to his baseline prowess, but for Varillas the slight inability to escape baseline rallies meant he got worn down as the match went on. Varillas moves the ball extremely well and rarely misses. The 3/5 format seems to really suit him, and having better results as majors is a really good thing for a young player on tour. I can guarantee that he’ll be down in the scoreline again against Djokovic. Can he come back?

No. For ADF fans, this was the best chance for him to beat Novak at a major. He played the match of a lifetime, and he didn’t win a set. The best quality matches on tour seem to negate the server’s advantage, and this was no different. Djokovic and ADF combined for 12 breaks across 3 sets, 3 sets which included a 6-2 blowout and still took 3 and a half hours. This was great tennis, and ADF acquitted himself well, but what was clear in this match is that it is extremely difficult to score on Djokovic. Most of the breaks and momentum shifts occurred at changes of ends. The south (if you’re watching TV) side of court Philippe-Chatrier seems to be way more worn at the baseline, and Djokovic and ADF both struggled a bit there in the slightly windy conditions. Something to keep an eye on if you’re betting as there are break markets I suppose.

Varillas is going to treat fans to a gutsy performance, but he’s been winning thus far by outlasting his opponents, and he’s not going to be able to do that here. Add in that those heroic performances mean he’s played 15 sets of tennis already, and he’s likely going to display a lot of heart but quietly be ready to accept the loss also. This is a great moment for an extremely deserving player, but Novak’s level thus far tells me only Musetti/Alcaraz can really compete with him. Djokovic in 3

Alcaraz vs Musetti :

If you have Alcaraz futures, this is going to be a tough sweat. So far this tournament, Alcaraz has looked ridiculous good. I won’t disparage the hard work pros put in, but when you see guys like Alcaraz the mind goes to how good everyone could be if they all took their training to the next level. He has natural gifts of course, and speed can’t be taught, but Carlos has been training harder and playing harder than everyone else on tour for a good 2-3 years now, and it makes it really hard to catch up. You can elevate your game to compete with him, but it becomes the Nadal question of how long you can stay at that level, and what the mental effect is of watching them pull away as you choose between going to a more conservative approach (likely the right choice but equally likely to be a losing effort longterm) or continuing to exert and losing to your own errors. Shapovalov gave us a great show, but his red-line game almost appears to be a fun treat for Alcaraz to play against. The slow conditions are really good for Alcaraz, because he has the ability to generate his own pace and the ultra slippery courts (dry conditions) mean that dynamic movement is a big key.

When I’m done gushing about Alcaraz, there is somehow a legit contender waiting. Lorenzo Musetti flies under the radar for big chunks of the season, but here he is one of the few people who can win the title. His defense is tremendous. He is extremely quick around the court and has great skill and depth on his gets. The part that really gives him a chance here is that he has the ability to infuse power at any time. Alcaraz is a rhythm player, and seeing difference paces leads him into the one aspect of his game (besides the serve) that is still less than optimal at times, decision-making. He is suffering a little bit from success lately, and the bailout dropshot or ornate volley/winner for the crowd is entering his game a bit. Carlos is good enough to get away with it, and he is actually good enough at tennis that he still makes a big percentage of these attempts. So wild that occasional highlight reel shots is considered a leak, but it’s hard to find them with Alcaraz so you take what you can get. Criticizing shot selection almost feels a bit absurd here, because pretty much every player from the Spanish federation has exceptional decision-making on the court.

That paragraph was supposed to be about Musetti, so I’ll try again. Musetti rolled Cam Norrie in round 3, and he won the previous meeting against Alcaraz, a three set thriller in Hamburg. Alcaraz has made improvements, but Musetti should still be able to hang. Physically he’s there. He has a good enough serve, he has enough power, and his one-hand backhand presents an interesting challenge for Alcaraz because most one-handers on the tour aren’t that good at this stage; it’s a shot Carlos doesn’t get to train against much. The slow courts and balls mean both players will have a hard time hitting past the other, and that means we’re going to get treated to what I expect to be the best match of the tournament thus far. I don’t think Alcaraz can win this in straight sets, but Musetti has taken losses this year on clay and Alcaraz has pretty much solved every single problem that has presented itself. Alcaraz in 4-5. If he can win this in straights just hand him the trophy.

Ofner vs Tsitsipas :

Sebastian Ofner is in the top 100. This has been a long long long time coming. If you look at the best performers on the Challenger tour for the past few years, his name is at the top of the list. The other guys like Stricker, Bergs, Sachko, etc have gotten their shots on tour though, while Ofner has mostly grinded away. He’s currently ranked 70 in the live rankings though, which means direct entry into Wimbledon and the USO. Ofner is at his best on clay, but he has a big serve and a great work ethic so there’s a good chance he can rack up more points in the North American hardcourt swing. Ofner will have a tough time continuing his run here, as Tsitsipas is playing great tennis. He’s also fresh after a fairly simple match against Diego Schwartzman. Diego battled as usual, but his lack of a serve meant that Tsitsipas was never really in danger. Ofner presents a tougher challenge since he has a great serve, but he got past Fognini through determination and being the slightly more consistent player. Against Tsitsipas, he’s outgunned in the serving and stamina department, and Tsitsipas has a heavier forehand also. It’s no knock on Ofner, but all his specialties here are eclipsed. This section of the draw is shaping up for this to be one of the best majors in a long long time. Tsitsipas in 3-4.