2023 Roland Garros Men's & Women's Quarterfinals Day 2
ATP Singles :
Rune vs Ruud :
Yes we’ve had fifth Rune vs Ruud on clay but what about sixth Rune vs Ruud on clay? This is quickly becoming a rivalry despite Casper leading the set count 10-3 and having only lost once. That’s how the conversation goes though when your opponent is younger. Every win they notch feels like a changing of the guard, and even if it isn’t you can be sure Yahoo Sports and the Daily Mail will pump out an article announcing it as such. Complaints about clickbait aside, Rune’s last (and only) win in Rome did feel like he was starting to solve the puzzle. Holger having a better backhand and his service game getting to even made it feel like Ruud would really have to do a lot to win in this matchup. Add in that this season has seen a peculiar lack of form from Ruud at times, and panic mode was somewhat engaged. This is a good chance for Casper to reset the discussion, but it also feels like a must-win.
Ruud beat Jarry in straight sets, which is a tall task for anyone right now. Jarry played great, but Ruud was patient and stubborn from the baseline, and his deep return position made it tough for Jarry to score quick points. The thing that really makes me point to Ruud winning his next match is how reliable he was on the big points. When he needed to, or wasn’t expected to, come up with a big shot, he did. His forehand is getting excellent height when he goes cross-court, and despite his backhand lacking some depth it’s been getting up high on his opponents. If Jarry at 6‘6” had a bit of trouble, it’s probably going to both Rune at 6‘2” (both these listed heights seem fudged in opposite directions). While Ruud was enjoying a return to form and a solid win, Rune was struggling physically in a marathon match against Cerundolo. Their match lasted just a minute under four hours, and despite looking physically fine during points, Rune’s play looked like someone who did not want to run anymore. Late in the fifth the dialogue with his box had started, and I was impressed that he managed to keep his head in the game and make some adjustments, but I was worried at how quick he was to try for return winners and quick infusions of offense. Rune should like himself against Cerundolo in a rally unless he’s struggling, and the recovery here will be an issue if they go deep. To Rune’s credit, he came to net a bunch in the 5th set tiebreak and that was the key to him winning. He applied pressure, and Cerundolo wasn’t able to come up with passes.
With Rune having a long match and physical fatigue, and Ruud having a straight set win, oddsmakers have set this at even odds. I’m inclined to agree. Rune has shown (in his Paris run) the ability to play at a breakneck pace and appear to put out a ton of energy, but still show up to compete the next round, so I don’t think this will be one-sided. I think he’ll be fine in the early-goings, but his willingness to play patient from the baseline will be essential here, and the quick unforced errors he displayed against Cerundolo can’t appear. Ruud plays less aggressive tennis than Cerundolo, and if you force the issue against him he’ll win. He also serves a bit more aggressively than Cerundolo, and is a bit more resilient about not letting changes in the scoreline affect his approach. Since they’ve been scheduled for the night match, and the colder conditions mean the ball really plays a bit slower, so I’m expecting this to be settled with frequent and extended rallies. Rune will win most of the backhand to backhand exchanges, but I think in these slower conditions it’ll be hard to hit through Ruud and physicality will become a factor. Ruud in 4-5.
Zverev vs Etcheverry :
The plot of Oceans 14 will be me getting fooled by Dimitrov one more time. Employing what is clearly the macro plan, Dimitrov has gone ahead and thrown in a few seasons of lackluster results and injury issues. Here, healthy, and playing his best tennis, he finally got me. I believed. Ouch did it hurt to watch this match. I don’t really like to drop negative things in here, but it really was a bad match. Dimitrov started off the match with two double faults, which I don’t even understand. The first few games your range might be off, but you should be firing on all cylinders after a day and a half of prep, and a thorough (these guys are preparing for hours) warm-up. He looked tentative throughout the affair, and it was pretty clear early on that he has a significant mental block against Zverev.
To Zverev’s credit, he did nothing. He hung behind the baseline, and just made it clear that it would take several shots to beat him. Dimitrov had two choices : play hyper aggressive and try to hit clean winners, or temper his offense and constantly hit to the open court because even though Zverev is quick, no one giving up that much space (behind the baseline) should be able to beat a professional tennis player in good form. Dimitrov chose neither. He constantly tried to come up with the next offensive shot, but swung tentatively as if he was assuming Zverev would get them. He had openings, but went safe and retreated back to the middle over and over. It was like watching someone play the role of a hitting partner for Zverev, but unfortunately they were nervous about the occasion and couldn’t keep the ball in the court. It was hard to watch, but I’m ready to get hurt again.
I expect Etcheverry will give Zverev the game that I thought Dimitrov would. Etcheverry and Nishioka was extremely close in the first set, and it felt like Nishioka would have equal chances if he could win the tiebreaker. What ensued was a really high level affair with most rallies being won with winners rather than errors. Etcheverry proved a bit more effective on serve though, and Nishioka appeared to aggravate an injury. He played out the match, which is a really nice gesture to the fans, but Etcheverry is through to his first major quarterfinals and it is well deserved. He has a great service delivery, doesn’t struggle with double faults, doesn’t back off his offense when he has control, and his backhand is very solid. This, I expect, will be Zverev’s to lose, but I think it will take some time to get there. Despite Zverev’s pre-injury passivity, he has shown some signs of life since his return. He’s hitting his forehand significantly better and seems to have (jinx) gotten rid of his deceleration issues. His backhand is still the most reliable shot for him, and he’s taking it down the line more often in this event which is causing extreme problems for his opponent. The double fault issues are there, but it’s a lot easier for me to expect his opponents to create break chances and scoreboard pressure while watching from home than it is to actually put balls in play off his powerful delivery. In short, Zverev is probably the pick to come out of the bottom draw, but this is his hardest test yet.
Etcheverry will not fold, unlike a certain someone whose texts are currently blocked (sorry Grigs but IT’S TOO SOON). His serving won’t falter as Dimitrov’s did, and he’ll be willing to ply his craft and test his offense against Zverev because unlike Dimitrov, he doesn’t have history against this opponent. Where I think he may struggle is returning serve. It can take a while to really read an opponent’s delivery, and since they’re playing in the daytime the ball should be moving a bit. Looking at some of the big servers he’s played, he beat Struff and Hanfmann, but he lost to Tiafoe twice. I am pulling for him, and I think his game will transfer well to grass and hardcourt, but this is probably the end of the road for him. Zverev really does have the next tier of ability in every department here, so only impatience and doubt are likely to send him home. Zverev in 4-5.
WTA Singles :
Haddad Maia vs Jabeur :
At the beginning of this tournament, I really only expected one of these players to be here. Ons Jabeur has had some slight injury issues, and just hasn’t seemed terribly motivated at every event. Her play every round here has improved though, and against Pera she broke out all the tricks. I really love her backhand dropshots down the line because she looks away from them. It mirrors the cross-court slice that some players employ overhand and even in my head I can feel myself starting to step to the left when she does it. Here Ons has her toughest opponent, but it’s one she’s played recently. These two met in Stuttgart, and Jabeur won 3,0. That’s a rough thing to overcome, but it was indoor tennis so Bella may fare better in these slower conditions.
Haddad Maia had a marathon against Sorribes Tormo, and the win meant a lot to her as SST has had her number for years. I think her serving will have to be at the next level here, as Jabeur was able to hold fairly easily in Stuttgart and is pretty fresh for this one. Haddad played for 3 hours and 51 minutes in her last round, and that makes three 3-set marathons in a row after her wins against Shnaider and Alexandrova. Those players had powerful offenses, but they aren’t as consistent or as solid defensively as Jabeur. It’s going to be hard to overcome Jabeur in these conditions, and fatigue is not on her side. Tremendous result for Haddad Maia, but Jabeur in 2.
Swiatek vs Gauff :
-1250 is what they’re suggesting is a fair price for Swiatek, but you will understand if I disagree. Lesia Tsurenko was unfortunately forced to retire in the first against Swiatek, but she was likely not going to put up much of a fight anyway. She’s a tricky player, but Swiatek was seeing the ball big and was applying a lot of pressure to Tsurenko’s serve. Lesia seemed to feel a bit faint, and told the physicians that she was having some trouble breathing. She’s had a fair bit of withdrawals this year (5), but with an illness removing Rybakina, and Tsurenko issuing some harsh sounding coughs during the treatment, she may have been dealing with a cold/flu of some sort which is unfortunate for the fans.
Gauff had a close first set with Schmiedlova, but she never really seemed in big trouble in her match. Gauff has struggled on her forehand wing in the past, but this week she’s been solid in every match and her game has gotten better as the match went on. That’s why I’m not sure how dominant of a performance Swiatek can turn in here. Similar to the Djokovic/Khachanov match, I know which player is better, but I don’t see an easy path for the victor because the deviation in level just isn’t there with Gauff. She’s going to defend well because she’s (I think) the fastest player on tour, and she’s going to hit the ball solid off both wings. Swiatek has shown that she struggles a little bit with errors when you take her time away, and Gauff’s ability to hang on the baseline and keep the ball low might represent a challenge similar to Rybakina’s. I don’t think her serve is anywhere near as reliable as Rybakina’s at creating setups though. Gauff has the potential to serve aces, but it’s more of a momentum thing it seems, or at times she mirrors Sakkari where on a huge point she can summon one, but most of the time she lands around 55% and doesn’t really get many aces.
After hyping up Gauff’s chances, my eyes drifted back over to the bad news. These two have met 6 times, and Gauff has yet to win a set. Swiatek won 3,1 at this event last year, and she’s gotten an entire day off so her arm will be fresher than Gauff’s. I’m expecting some thrilling rallies, but Swiatek’s return of serve in the last few rounds has looked really good. Swiatek in 2, one close and one bakery-esque.