2023 Roland Garros Men's Singles Round Three

Alcaraz vs Shapovalov :

This round will have the first big tests for a lot of seeds. This one is somewhat unexpected. Denis Shapovalov came into this event not even being discussed. His play lately (and at Roland Garros) had been decent, but included very few match-wins. So much so that many people (myself included) believed Nakashima and Arnaldi would beat him, and it seems like the pressure being off has allowed him to play some good tennis. Arnaldi played solid, but Shapo was just a bit too much for him. It sets up what is arguably a more high profile matchup, one that’ll give us our first look at Alcaraz having to really showcase his defensive abilities. Thus far Carlos has won fairly easily. He dropped an odd set to Taro Daniel, but it didn’t really affect the momentum of the match. Against a guy like Denis, he’ll need to avoid giving him too much confidence, so I think we’ll see his foot on the gas throughout this match.

The tricky part here is that all the pressure is on Alcaraz. He got a bit creative in his last match because he was dominating things and sent some shots wide and into the net playing for the crowd. The outcome was assured though, so the audience shifting their support to the challenger wasn’t something that really mattered. If Shapovalov plays the type of tennis that he needs to in order to win against Alcaraz, the energy shift in the stadium is going to be palpable, and it’ll be interesting to see him navigate that. Stories of crowd-shifting energy aside, Alcaraz probably wins this in 3-4 sets. He really is fast enough and solid enough on defense to put back most of what Shapo can offer, and Denis is prone to errors when he has to come up with a bunch of shots in a row. The slightly slower courts benefit Alcaraz because he is able to generate his own pace very well, and because it makes it harder to hit through him. I don’t think Shapovalov is ready for this level of opponent, but I do think he has the type of offense and athleticism necessary to put on an excellent show. Should be a tremendous match. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Musetti vs Norrie :

This is a rematch of Barcelona, where Norrie won the first before Musetti pulled away, eventually winning 6-1 in the third. I somewhat think there will be a similar outcome here. I thought Shevchenko could score on Musetti, and nope. Norrie is one of the hardest workers on tour, and regularly outperforms his own tennis ceiling by digging in and refusing to miss, but he’s playing a guy who seems to be able to do that without being at full exertion. The slower conditions do benefit Norrie a bit, but I don’t think he’ll be able to score that easily on Musetti and his flat backhand is not able to score on clay the way it is on hardcourt. Lorenzo is taking care of his serve really well and the crowd is behind him. It’s apples and oranges but if Shevchenko played Norrie, I’d expect him to win a set. Musetti’s ability to infuse pace and hit a much heavier ball should give make this feel uphill for Norrie, and I don’t think fatigue will be an issue because both he’s been winning in straight sets. Ready to be surprised, but Musetti in 4.

Fognini vs Ofner :

Fognini saunters up to the chalkboard, peering up at numbers and symbols. The equation is long and complex, but it is no match for Fognini.
“14,” says Fabio, with a wry smile, pointing to the board. The teacher squints disapprovingly.
“You are no match for Fognini,” says Fognini.
“Sir this is a Wendy’s,” says the teacher, who is wearing a Wendy’s uniform. It is a Wendy’s. “Ahh, so it is,” says Fognini, while reaching into his bag for his spectacles. “I’ll have a McDouble”

Fognini is in great shape to make the fourth round, but I’m not buying my tickets yet. I thought Kubler would outwork him, but Fognini outclassed the Australian. His power and deft offense really set him apart, and this next match does have the feel of “if he puts in the work, he should win”. Despite all that, I think he is in a bit of trouble. These are the matches that he should have been winning his whole career, and he constantly struggled against contenders who were willing to make the same effort on a big stage. Ofner has one big benefit here, his serve is much bigger than Kublers. Even as I’m typing this, it feels like I’m going to go on a “doubt Fognini” losing streak, but Ofner is playing good tennis and he got a simple round 2 win which should give him a bit of a reset. The days off are really useful for someone who came through qualifying.

This is a spot that both players are going to be absolutely motivated to get a win, so we should see the best from both up until the pressure moments arrive. Then I think Fognini implodes and Ofner squeaks by because he’s simply been playing more big moments in his time grinding the Challenger tour lately. Ofner in 5.

Schwartzman vs Tsitsipas :

DIEGOGOGO! It’s refreshing to see Schwartzman winning matches and enjoying himself out there once again, even if it’s at the expense of my picks. I wasn’t sure how it would happen, but I thought his form would revert. It hasn’t, but unfortunately I’m primed to pick against him again. Stefanos Tsitsipas beat RCB in straight sets, and it was the type of solid performance that makes me doubt he’ll have a lapse here. Schwartzman is capable of dragging this out, but Tsitsipas has gone beyond the level where he can beat by someone trying to extend rallies. His forehand is too big for that, and his serve can bail him out when he needs it. His returning is the last issue he needs to work on (his backhand is fine but could improve of course), but Diego’s serve isn’t much. If he wins a set, it’ll be a pretty good accomplishment, but I don’t think it will change the momentum or rattle Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas in 3-4.

Djokovic vs Davidovich Fokina :

We got a look at Djokovic, and a close first set woke him up, Fucsovics played his best, but he just doesn’t have a way to score cheap points on Djokovic. Even in the wild Altmaier upset of Sinner, Daniel was serving really well and getting quick points from that. You need that to pull an upset, because the top players score on their serves. The first guy who made Novak play is gone, and here is the first guy who could beat him if he doesn’t play his best. Davidovich Fokina is through after a really solid performance against Luca Van Assche. LVA showed great mettle in continuing to play throughout this match, which is impressive considering how many challengers have gotten breadsticked in the early rounds. ADF is just able to generate offense and hit cleanly for an entire match though, and there is no hole in his game. The h2h for Djokovic ADF does include one win for Fokina, a 3 set win in Monte Carlo. The problem with counting that is that Djokovic seems to always bow out of Monte Carlo early.

Looking at strictly tennis, Fokina has a few ways to make this competitive. One, he’s hitting his backhand really well and his forehand down the line really well. This is important because Djokovic has magical rubber bones. He defends extremely well to the backhand wing, and shifts his weight so that he can almost always send the next ball to his opponent’s backhand. Since ADF is hitting his backhand cleanly cross-court and down the line, he has a puncher’s chance to maintain control of rallies when he goes down the line. Two, his stamina appears to be solid right now. He’s fast enough to defend against Novak’s ground game, so there’s a good chance he’ll reap the benefit of whatever occasional errors Djokovic does throw in. He’s ready to challenge here, but I’m not sure if he can win. The same way Shapo is the best showcase for Alcaraz, ADF is the best for Djokovic. Very few players on tour have a complete offensive array, and even fewer that do can also defend and take care of their serve against him. I’m expecting a very high level affair, and if Djokovic is able to just shut him down it’s a very scary notion for the rest of the draw. Novak will have to elevate his level in this match, and I’m interested to see if he will. Djokovic in 4-5.

Varillas vs Hurkacz :

That’s a nice lead you’ve got there. Be a shame if someone .... won every single set left in the match. Juan Pablo Varillas has arrived in the third round with a very strange path. Down two sets and with Robert Bautista-Agut playing some tremendous tennis, Varillas seemed sunk. RBA looked fatigued in the first set though, and this season has seen the roboto finally look like a human, which answers some questions about AI developing consciousness. No need to worry as long as we’ve got Varillas. This next match is one that Varillas is unlikely to win if he does down 2-0, but he might not have to here. RBA was really dominating baseline points and not making many errors. Varillas was just a bit outmatched in the hitting department until the edge was off. In this matchup against Hurkacz, Varillas will be the more consistent player from the baseline by far. Returning serve could be an issue, but Griekspoor was 50/50 to win his match so Varillas will know that he won’t just get served off the court.

Trouble for Varillas lies in his own lack of a serve. Griekspoor has a lot of pop (I keep using this word this week and idk why, I promise to stop soon) on his delivery and Varillas is more of a traditional clay-court server, solid stuff but not many unreturneds. Hurkacz turning around after two three setters is likely going to be tough, but I think he should win this in 4 unless the first set turns into a marathon. If the first set is a tiebreaker though, I could see Varillas wearing Hubert down.

Khachanov vs Kokkinakis :

Kokkinakis and Wawrinka absolutely delivered. A five set classic that ended with a lot of respect shared between the two players, and Kokkinakis collapsing to the floor. Wawrinka was on his last legs at the end of the match, but his full-stretch slices kept rallies going and Thanasi was forced to hit a number of huge shots to finally get across the finish line. It was a match that Stan probably would not have recovered well from, and it’s a nice name for Kokkinakis to add to his list. Despite being the younger player, Kokkinakis is towards the second half of his career on tour so every win is a bonus. This next round is one that Kokkinakis will likely play the role of Wawrinka in. His explosive offense will allow him to be competitive, but the odds that his opponent’s level stays steadier as the match progresses are strong. Khachanov had some early hiccoughs this week but he’s been a consistent performer at the majors and the slower courts will make it tough for Kokkinakis to beat him. Khachanov in 4.

Sonego vs Rublev :

Sonego and Rublev both faced tricky left-handed opponents from France, so are they twins? Yes. Rublev is a pretty sizable favorite for this one, which is a semi-puzzle because Sonego won their previous meeting on clay and he’s playing some great tennis. The price (-340) is likely a result of Rublev’s good form. He’s hitting the ball well and the slower clay makes it tough to hit through him. He’s also much more consistent than Sonego. Lorenzo is serving really well though, and his dropshot/forehand combo is good enough to expose Rublev’s slightly slowed movement. There have been a lot of matches so far where both players were playing well, but one managed to be just slightly better in each rally. I worry that’s the case here, as Sonego is at the top of his game but still is a tiny bit inconsistent. He’s been dominating his matches, but at a level below what Rublev generally brings to the table. The h2h and his form are hard to ignore though, so I think this will be very competitive. It’ll be hard for Sonego to win the baseline rallies from neutral, but I think he’ll be able to return serve a good enough chunk of the time to frustrate Andrey. Rublev in 5.

Rune vs Olivieri :

This draw is doing Holger a ton of favors. After a Monfils wrist injury gave him a walkover, he now has what I consider the easiest match of the third round. Oliveiri’s run to this current stage has been great for his career, and he’s an extremely hard worker, but he just doesn’t have the game to beat Rune. Vavassori was dealing with cramps in his previous round, and played a two hour doubles match last night. The result was a somewhat flat performance today. When he had control, he was able to hit the ball clean past Oliveiri, but most of this match was G.A. moving him around and getting in better and better position until he could finally end the rally. The third round finish will get him inside the top 200 and net him enough prize money to keep competing for at least a year or two more, and he certainly won’t give up here, but he wins by outlasting his opponents and outworking them, and Rune is just another tier of tennis. Holger should win in 3 sets by at least a break in each.

Cerundolo vs Fritz :

Oddsmakers set the total at 36 for Cerundolo Hanfmann. Given their previous matches had been close, and both were in good form, it led me to believe that one of them would hit a wall physically in this match. It turned out to be Hanfmann. The score after an hour of play was just 4-3 in the first set, and the writing was on the wall despite some frustration from Francisco’s end. He finished the match in straights, and next is a winnable but tricky contest against Taylor Fritz. Fritz saw himself matched up against the French version of himself.

Rinderknech is a tall lanky fellow with a huge serve, a middling backhand, and big forehand that seems to work amazing when he wins and lack pace when he loses. After winning the first set 6-2, the announcers were getting excited. Tennis announcers are 80% unbearable, and when they try to get involved in predictions, it gets worse as they try to educate us to some secret plot when they’re completely guessing. The announcer pointed out how Rinderknech was mixing in serve and volleys and how that was a sign of supreme confidence. Nevermind that Rinderknech serve-volleys every single match he’s ever played on tour, TODAY HE’S CONFIDENT! Unfortunately for him, Fritz found his serve in the second set, and he became somewhat unplayable. In a match between two servers, the guy with the stronger baseline game usually wins, and that was the case here. If they both served underhand, Fritz would never lose a set.

Cerundolo is definitely much better than Fritz on clay, but he’s played a ton of matches in a row. He was the more physically able player today against Hanfmann, but it was a battle between two guys who’ve played nonstop for the past two weeks. Fritz is relatively fresh, and his serving is good enough to win him sets if he can get to the business end. I don’t see a way that this ends quickly, and given Cerundolo’s slight fatigue I worry that Fritz may edge him in the end. Cerundolo in 4 or Fritz in 5.

Jarry vs Giron :

Ah yes, the classic Roland Garros question. Can anyone stop Giron? After not really doing anything of note this clay season, Giron has some alive here. He froze the talented qualifier Medjedovic, and gave no hope to Lehecka in a straight set beating that was pretty quick (the match last just 1:44). The end of the road has arrived, but given his stellar play it’s not entirely safe to count him out. Nico Jarry is different though. It’s been since the early days of Zverev that we’ve seen a guy with such a huge serve who also goes after his groundstrokes. Jarry lost the first against Tommy Paul, but his focus and effort was there and once he was able to secure breaks of serve, the set was simply over. I think Tommy is a bit hindered, but it’s not clear what the issue is. Hopefully he’s healthy for grass, but for now it was a solid win for Jarry, who let loose some charismatic roars after the win.

Giron’s serve/forehand combo are good enough to make him competitive here, but it’s a david goliath situation, and I think Jarry will just be able to hold onto his serve a bit longer than Giron. Jarry in 4.

Zhang vs Ruud :

A few seasons ago Zhang was starting to win titles on the challenger tour, and it was a bit of puzzle because his best success was coming on clay. Fast forward to now, and he’s in the third round of the French Open and has cemented himself in the top 100. A month ago he’d have a good shot to beat Casper Ruud also, but something is in the air this week. Hypothetically, if I were working on an animated musical called Casper Ruud : King of Clay, I’d have been worried up until last week. Casper always has some struggles on hardcourt, but he was getting washed left and right on clay. He finally showed signs of life in Geneva though, and in the past round he really looked sharp. The conditions are good for him, and his draw is filled with gradual raises in level so he has time and practice to get himself together.

Zhang is a dangerous opponent here, but Ruud should be able to defend well enough to win. The 3/5 format really lends Ruud the ability to play a solid and safe tactical game without risking the loss to a redlining offense. I think Zhang will outperform his pricing here, but Ruud should outlast him. Ruud in 4.

AlternativetimelinewhereSinnerlosesmaier vs Dimitrov :

Daniel Altmaier. Holy wow. Holy glob. Amazing. Absolutely legendary performance. I expected him to play well, but to win in the manner he did is just unheard of. Altmaier was doing everything he could in the first set, and when he finally got to the tiebreaker, he immediately gave up the advantage. He got zipped, and it was the kind of “well, you tried” result that usually folds people up. He had constant pressure on his serve in this match, and saved 15 of 21 break points he faced. After he lost the 3rd set 6-1, it looked like he was sunk. Somehow, he battled through the 4th and won in a tiebreak, and won in the fifth. This was a 5 and a half hour match, and both players levels stayed extremely high throughout. Sometimes Sinner can throw in some poor performances, but he played well in this and Altmaier was still able to win.

While Altmaier was battling for the entire day, Dimitrov won in fairly comfortable fashion. Ruusuvuori kept grinding away, but Dimitrov is just at a very high level in this event. The creative and ambitious shots that he occasionally goes for are landing, and the topspin he hits with just seemed more effective than Ruusvuori’s flat power in the long run. I’m unsure how Altmaier recovers for his match with Dimitrov, as his win against Sinner was not only extremely long, but emotionally draining. His best tennis can absolutely compete even against Dimitrov, but the difference in time on court may allow Dimitrov to win. Grigor’s stellar play may also lend itself to this outcome. I’m expecting a close contest in the early goings, but it’s hard to see another upset even if his last opponent (Sinner) is a bit better than his current one. Dimitrov in 4.

Zverev vs Tiafoe :

Wait. Why is Zverev playing like he used to play? It seems like the ankle injury gave Zverev a reset that has re-ignited his tennis acumen. Molcan is a tough test, and the type that Zverev’s passivity can really give control to. From 0-0 though Alexander was aggressive and accurate, and the difference in weight of shot was evident. Spectators know that Zverev is full of errors and quitmode, but the work it takes to keep the ball in play over and over is not automatic, and Molcan was worn down into defensive errors in this one. He didn’t notch many unreturned serves either, and Zverev is back at the level he showcased last year at this event. If you’re looking for a darkhorse winner, it’s probably Zverev.

Tiafoe had a much tougher opponent, and made quick work of Karatsev’s nostalgia. Aslan was slated to really be competitive here, but Tiafoe’s serve can pretty much make him a threat in any match, and his physical strength let him outlast the sharp play of Karatsev that saw him net the first set. Zverev has won almost all their previous meetings, but this is probably the peak of Tiafoe’s career (not this current event but he’s improved every season) so it should be competitive. I think Zverev’s height will give him the ability to put a few more returns in play, and his own serve is not quite as effective as Tiafoe’s but it’s good enough to keep him in the match. If Tiafoe can isolate Zverev’s forehand he does have a good shot here, but I expect Zverev to be slightly more durable, and his return to offensive tennis means that he’s not the same Next Gen disappointment that we’ve seen losing in the past few years. Zverev in 4-5.

Coric vs Etcheverry :

This is a great spot for Etcheverry. He made quick work of De Minaur, and this is the round where the flat hitters went down to the traditional clay-court players. Etcheverry hits the ball really hard, and there’s full commitment on every swing which generates a really pleasing sound off his racquet. Coric thus far has been outlasting his opponents, and while his physical strength is off the charts, Etcheverry is a step up from the guys he’s been facing and should be fresh for this. Add in that he also won their previous meeting in 2022, and there’s reason to believe that this will be very competitive. Coric fans can breathe easy though, because it’ll be much harder to hit through him than it was to down De Minaur. I think the record number of 5 setters is likely to continue in the third, and this is just another extremely close match. Leaning into the upset. Etcheverry in 4-5.

Nishioka vs Seyboth Wild :

Thiago is really getting rewarded for defeating Medvedev. Playing Guido Pella is always tough, but he’s well past his prime. They went to four sets, but Seyboth was almost always in control. He’ll have a much tougher test here in Nishioka, and it’s a spot where Thiago can win, but he’ll need to show the type of patience that he did against Medvedev. Yoshihito was able to shut down Purcell, who suffered from some cuts to his hands early in the match. Dropping the first and winning in 4 really feels like a dominant performance to me, because it generally means the other player had to redline to get the first set. Nishioka’s defense is good enough to frustrate Seyboth, but he’s not really playing his best tennis yet. I know Thiago is better, and I know this is his surface, but I’m not sure that he can get this done quickly, and in a long match I think I like Nishioka. Offense vs defense, and I have concerns that Nishioka’s experience and next-level speed are the right formula to get past Wild. Nishioka in 5.