2023 Roland Garros Men's Semifinals
Alcaraz vs Djokovic :
How will we survive without the big 3? Well, here is your answer. Carlos Alcaraz is primed for his first Roland Garros title, and for once in tennis, the expectations for a phenom are warranted. Alcaraz is a whopping -210 for this match, which is the most significant odds for a player facing Djokovic in a long time. For reference, the last few Nadal vs Djokovic matches at Roland Garros had Djokovic at around even odds. There is some inflation to the odds because of how easily Alcaraz has been winning and due to Djokovic’s lackluster clay season/potential elbow issues, but for the most part, I agree with this line.
Djokovic has long been the best hope for someone to stop Nadal at slams, but he’s never really been dominant from the baseline. Even in his most recent win, it seemed like Nadal just hit a wall physically more than Djokovic was able to dominate with his tennis. Novak has power, but he’s much more dangerous on fast courts and Roland Garros is playing extremely slow. With two weeks of play scuffing up the courts, difficult bounces (not Djokovic’s favorite thing) are also becoming a factor. A player will need skill, willpower, and actual power to win this title, and I think Djokovic is outmatched by a tiny bit in all three categories here.
If we sort through attributes, Alcaraz is winning in a lot of them currently. I make no assumptions about other events, but in these conditions, here’s where I see the edges. Alcaraz is faster than Djokovic. Alcaraz is able to generate his own power easier than Djokovic, and is currently hitting his forehand better. Alcaraz is employing the dropshot with great success, and Djokovic tends to utilize his well but he can get a bit predictable with the location down the line off his backhand and he doesn’t use the forehand drop very often. As far as stamina, Alcaraz and Djokovic are likely around even, but Alcaraz’s preferred pace is as fast as possible, and I think he can hang at that level longer than his opponent. Where Djokovic wins finally is in the service department, and on the backhand wing. Djokovic is a bit more accurate than Alcaraz, although Carlos has shown improvement on his ability to hit the T serve from the ad side. Alcaraz’s backhand is very solid, but Djokovic in a rhythm rarely makes errors and he locates the ball a bit more accurately than Alcaraz.
All of these edges, I would say, are slight at this point, but Alcaraz has continued to improve on tour and that’s what makes this feel like a likely spot for him to beat one of the all-time greats of tennis. The only player who has won a set thus far is Taro Daniel, and that set was largely Carlos employing some flair for the crowd and having to resettle once it became clear Daniel was not going to join him in the fun. Musetti was so defeated by the end of his match against Alcaraz that he opted for the highlight reel stuff, and the crowd was treated to some great rallies but Lorenzo had resigned. Tsitsipas dug in after getting smoked in the first two sets, but Alcaraz was able to turn things up. One big aspect of both Djokovic and Alcaraz’s success has been their teams. During the 3rd set Tsitsipas comeback Alcaraz had turned to his box for inspiration (and a little venting). Juan Carlos Ferrero made the “chatter” motion with his hand a few times, and then made a fist. Such a simple thing, but a way to take a player out of their own internal monologue in a key moment without giving them excess direction to debate about is such an intelligent move. Alcaraz is now fresh for this match, and is thriving in these conditions having dismissed two players who took Djokovic to 5 sets in the past.
Djokovic will be ready for this contest as well, after a difficult but inevitable win against Karen Khachanov. Khachanov’s serve gave him the ability to hang even with Djokovic, but once Novak started to get returns in play at Karen’s feet he struggled to hang on. Djokovic’s consistency and his ability to maintain a level once he reaches it are usually good enough to defeat most players. Having to come up with constant offense and put in nonstop effort is something that most players on tour can’t keep up for more than 1-2 sets, but that’s exactly the level of tennis that Alcaraz has been training towards. This paragraph was supposed to be able Djokovic, but here comes Alcaraz creeping in. Watching him against Tsitsipas, I legit felt like he has a chance to break the big 3s record at the majors. He has 3-4 years already of training harder than everyone else on tour, and his speed and forehand are major factors in any match on any surface. The best part has been watching him work specifically on the holes in his game. His backhand was a bit generic, and he has fixed that. He steps into almost every ball now and looks to infuse pace. His serve is still the bit that lags behind the rest of his game, but it is improving at every tournament and there aren’t double fault issues, it’s just not as noticeably incredible as the rest of his game.
When I’m done gushing, I have to admit that I’m still expecting a close match. Musetti came out hesitant and looking to work into the match, and folded shortly after. Tsitsipas was fired up, but his insistence on trying to cover his backhand left him victim to a ton of passes and dropshots to his forehand side. Djokovic is the guy though that simply will not quit. When Alcaraz has the third set lapse that he had against his two previous opponents, Djokovic will win that set. If Alcaraz gets into a dialogue with his box, Djokovic will see it and make him play extra balls. Novak also is a big-match player and that means that the slower more compartmentalized pace of the match may allow him to create a different optic than really exists. If Djokovic is losing rallies, but hits a few timely aces, suddenly the match looks different to Carlos. If Djokovic plays possum early but elevates his game, suddenly there is doubt for Alcaraz to consider. I do think the crowd will get behind whoever is struggling also, and Djokovic has one of the most indomitable spirits on the tennis court that we’ve ever witnessed.
Alcaraz had big targets in his past two matches because Musetti and Tsitsipas don’t really have dangerous backhands, but here that’s gone because it’s Novak’s strength. Alcaraz has been taking some very deep return positions, and Djokovic is adept at the net so some serve and volley may be on the menu. The only big problem I see for Djokovic is that Alcaraz is hitting bigger than him off both wings. If the match goes deep, I think Alcaraz will be able to score more without going to dangerous targets. We saw Swiatek today go much safer on big points and just drive the ball with heavy topspin until she got up court, and we’ve seen Nadal do that with his forehand for a very long time. Alcaraz’s forehand is the same thing. This is mostly reading like I expect Alcaraz to have the early lead, but the best thing about this match is that if he doesn’t. he’s equally likely to dig in and make a comeback. Their previous meeting was a 3 set thriller in Madrid that Alcaraz won, so he’ll have some confidence to draw upon. This feels like the finals, and I think Alcaraz is set to get the first of many Roland Garros titles. Alcaraz in 4-5.
Ruud vs Zverev :
People are quick to dismiss Ruud’s potential, but he continually performs well at the majors. It’s his style I think that confuses people into thinking he doesn’t belong at this level. Ruud does everything in a very rigid and professional manner. If coaches were able to choose a high-percentage shot before every swing, they would come up with something very close to Ruud’s game. A lot of people forget that Thiem and Federer also made technical skill and decision-making their main focus, and with Ruud’s backhand still just a defensive tool, there is a lot of room for him to keep improving. In the meantime, he’s in another major semifinal and has a winnable match here against one of the tour’s most giraffe infused humans.
If you cross a #2 pencil with a surfboard, and give it a mirror for its birthday, you might get Alexander Zverev. He’s a polarizing figure on tour, but he’s showing decent signs of growing up. Last year he looked like he’d be defeating Nadal at this event, and he suffered an ankle injury that forced him to make some very unforgettable noises. Since his return it seems like he is working harder, and it’s a welcome change. He’s been training at a high level, and his return to aggressive play from the baseline is yielding him results. It’s easy to forget that his first few forays at tour level saw him going for huge groundstroke winners and almost beating Nadal on hardcourt (a putaway volley away from the win), but his recent play has shown signs that the time off has re-ignited his hunger on the court, and maybe even his brain.
Zverev had a really tough test against Etcheverry, who stole the momentum early in the second and almost carried it through into the third. Early in the second I wondered if Zverev had the legs for a 5-set match, because since his return he’s really only been playing the 2/3 format. Etcheverry proved a bit too ambitious during rallies though, and unforced errors on the forehand cost him the 3rd and 4th set. It was interesting to me to see Tomas going so aggressively when I felt he was on even terms in the rallies, but it’s another reminder of the weight of shot that Zverev brings. At home I see the defense as effortless, but when you’re the one chasing the heavy cross-court forehands and dealing with a backhand that doesn’t seem to miss, it’s easy to want to end the rally. Zverev had some double fault issues bubble to the surface, but he is through and should be moderately fresh for this semifinal.
Ruud’s quarterfinal was much easier and yet portions of it seemed impossibly difficult. Rune’s mom Aneke gave an interview after his win against Cerundolo and insisted that Rune would not be physically impacted by the 5-setter, despite him appearing to indicate his legs were fried towards the end of the match. This was nice gamesmanship, but insisting that there is no physical fatigue after there is clearly physical fatigue is a very “there is no man behind the curtain” vibe. Rune was not prepared to play in the first set against Ruud, and basically swung tentatively on a lot of balls. Ruud dominated things without having to do much, and the second set was a mirror of the first. That lactic acid buildup is really tough to completely override, even with the aid of ice baths (highly recommend these btw for recovery, do your research first though and ease yourself into them with cold showers first) and the best nutrition on tour. There were some comments from Aneke about Rune not really hydrating properly or eating well during matches, and that is something him and his team will have to work out. It was thrown out there that he was stuck with blueberry flavor drinks instead of his preferred raspberry, and while that is hilarious, you could also say that if the kid has clear issues with nutrition and hydration on court, and you aren’t getting him the stuff he needs to thrive, then your team isn’t really doing its job. Coaching tennis is 10% strategy, and 90% babysitting.
Rune took an off-court bathroom break after the 2nd set, and whatever he took clearly worked. He came back out bounding with energy, and the elevation in level took Ruud by surprise. Casper had been coasting with mid-level offense, and Rune’s hyper-aggressive shotmaking left him struggling to hang in the set. He dropped the third 6-3, and Rune had the crowd on his side. Unfortunately, the energy didn’t last forever. Ruud is very physically strong, and he’s a well-coached player. He dug in on defense and started really hitting the majority of his shots to the open court. Rune was still dangerous but it wore his legs down and Ruud eventually got the benefit of errors. Casper should be fresh for this semifinals, but I don’t love the Rune match as prep for playing Zverev. Zverev’s shot selection is a lot more conservative than Rune, and his serve is a lot bigger. When you’ve been scoring your points by being consistent, it can sometimes take a mental reset before you realize you have to hit a number of shots to win. What I do think is positive for Ruud is that Zverev doesn’t possess the same ability to hit his forehand both directions that Rune does. Zverev is mostly hitting solid angles this week when he goes cross-court, and his inside out forehand is decent but is not travelling through the court at an ungettable pace at all.
As far as strategies, Ruud will want to sit in the forehand to forehand exchanges. He also may want to try making any facial expressions, but perhaps this is too risky after so long as a roboto. In all seriousness, Zverev wins if he can make this about their backhands, and Ruud wins if he can make this about their forehands. Zverev is serving much bigger than Ruud, but not necessarily better. Ruud is more consistent from the baseline also and is a bit more adept at creating. Him having the physical tools to go 5 sets here and the experience of making last year’s finals is also a key, given that Zverev losing actually still represents a big result for him. It’s hard to keep fighting sometimes when you’ve already sort of done enough, and Zverev’s major issues in the past have been mental. Despite the first semifinal being the marquee matchup, this is likely to be a very long and good quality contest. I think overall, Ruud’s baseline tennis is just at a higher tier than Zverev has been competing at since his return, and Zverev has been getting the benefit at this event of a very 500 level draw while Ruud has been dispatching actual monsters. I like Jarry against Zverev, I like tired Rune against Zverev, and I like Ruud against Zverev. King of Clay Casper Ruud in 4-5.