2023 Roland Garros Men's Round Two

Alcaraz vs Daniel :

If there were any doubts about the early rounds here in Paris, Alcaraz put them to rest in his first round. Cobolli came into this match playing some of his best tennis, and was soundly beaten. Alcaraz’s physical strength is just making him a really tough equation to solve if you don’t have a huge serve. Alcaraz has natural speed, but his footwork is very proactive as well. This means he’s constantly taking time away from his opponents. It’s hard to commit to a swing when you know the ball is coming right back, and Carlos looks really solid.

Cobolli may have gotten a dismissal, but O’Connell won even fewer games against Taro Daniel. Daniel was extremely consistent, but O’Connell just didn’t look ready to play. It’s a welcome infusion of ranking points and money for Daniel, but this is probably going to be similar to the Cobolli match. Hanging in rallies expecting errors just won’t work against Alcaraz at this stage in his career. Alcaraz in 3.

Arnaldi vs Shapovalov :

Despite being one of the best on tour at generating unforced errors, Denis Shapovalov won his first round. The problem for Nakashima was apparent early on; When the ball lands in the court, it’s going very fast. Shapo was hitting clean winners past Nakashima on both wings, and the usual errors came in, but once he was up 2-0 it felt like Nakashima had to do too much work to hold off the result. It feels like the player who’s won 2 in a row has all the momentum in a fifth, but we all just saw the Celtics come up very flat against the Heat in the NBA conference finals after winning 3 in a row. It’s just very tough to maintain the level, and Shapovalov appears to have hit his mom with the “5 more minutes” snooze button routine here, just waking up again in the 5th to crack a few spectacular forehands and shake hands.

The Arnaldi matchup is interesting because I don’t see a big difference in level between Nakashima and Arnaldi. If Shapovalov plays his best, he’ll win again. Can he do that two rounds in a row? That seems to be where the books are unsure. A lot of bettors bet off name recognition. The general public doesn’t really have the time to follow the tour, so when they see Shapovalov win, it is likely that people will bet on him the next round. Matteo Arnaldi is a great player, but he doesn’t garner the market share that Shapovalov does. He probably falls well short of Nakashima as well. At even odds here, the books are going to see exposure on Shapovalov’s side, so I do think that it is a slight position on Arnaldi being the winner here. Musing how that can happen is pretty simple. Arnaldi is at his best on clay, and Shapo doesn’t love the surface. Arnaldi has just proved himself by defeating Galan in 4, which is pretty solid since Galan can beat most mid-level tour players on clay.

Arnaldi and Nakashima would be pretty close in level, but Arnaldi uses more traditional clay-court patterns. He has a better cross-court backhand, his serve has a bit more pop (ya gotta have pop!) and Shapovalov will be less familiar with his game so when he does go to the dropshot or serve-volley it’ll be a surprise. This is a spot where Shapovalov could easily win again, but his opponent here is more comfortable with his court positioning and I think the durability will yield results sooner where Nakashima had to catch up to Shapo’s pace. Arnaldi in 4.

Musetti vs Shevchenko :

Mikael Ymer pushed Musetti in their opener, but he just doesn’t have the serving game to close out a set even if he gets the lead. Lorenzo is one of the most solid defenders in this entire event, and when you yield control of rallies to him, he’s able to hit inside-in forehands until you are sitting in the bleachers. The swings seem composed because they are. Musetti can infuse great pace in the ball, but most of the time he’s just swinging 3/4 speed. The results is that he doesn’t miss much, and that’s a big plus on clay. Shevchenko is the polar opposite of Ymer here as far as offensive potential, and the opposite of Musetti as far as capacity. He swings as hard as he can at every single ball. He serves very big, and adopts some wide positions at times to really make use of the court. It’s a very exciting approach, and he’s very emotive on the court so this should be a good show.

I think Shevchenko will lose to his errors here. Against Otte the main difficulty was getting returns in play, but once he was there Shevchenko was not only the bigger hitter, he was also the only one looking to prolong rallies. Musetti will be fine however long the point goes, and there was some slight leg fatigue for Shevchenko late in his match so I think this is too much for him right now. With his power and offensive approach, he should be able to win a set, but I don’t think Musetti is as primed for the random upset as he sometimes can be. He seems focused, he’s played some high profile matches this year, and also the pressure is off. He’s out of his next-gen years, he’s won enough stuff that they’re not worrying him with “will he meet expectations” chatter, and he has a good amount of fan support. Musetti in 4.

Pouille vs Norrie :

Yeesh. Pouille really has improved every single round here. Rodionov looked very sunk as far as ideas in their match, and Lucas with confidence is a scary opponent. He’ll need to level up again here, as he’s playing one of the Medvedev type clay-court challenges. A guy who isn’t really great on the surface, but doesn’t give you anything in the way of errors. Norrie had a pretty difficult time in round one against Paire. It just seemed that he was content to try to outlast him, and it almost didn’t work. Paire’s forehand vs Norrie’s backhand is something that Norrie’s backhand only barely won, and that should give Pouille some hope. Problems for Pouille lie in the lack of a big serve. Paire is able to get inside the baseline on most returns since his delivery is speedy, well located, and hard to read. His dropshot heavy approach can get him in trouble, but it takes a guy like Norrie out of his comfort zone. Pouille goes with power and footspeed, but those are things Norrie can probably deal with.

Based on the first round, on paper this is a close match. I do expect Pouille to play his best here, and since Norrie is looking to outlast you, he may win a set . Just doesn’t feel like the run continues though. Norrie in 3-4.

Fognini vs Kubler :

Fognini saunters casually towards a tree. Nearby an elephant munches complacently on leaves. “I remember things too,” offers Fognini, “I remember lots of things”. The elephant does not respond. Fognini scowls, he is somehow both wearing a shirt and not wearing a shirt. He pauses to admire his arm, which unfortunately has some scratches from early when he attempted to tie a ninja headband on a lion . “I told you it would not stay still,” reminds Flavia, as a gazelle sprints by. Fognini scowls at the gazelle’s unnecessary effort. “Running for no reason, not staying still, the savannah is mad,” declares Fognini, while flexing his moustache. He plucks a spider off a nearby bush and admires himself in its eight eyes. “Maybe it’s not all bad though”.

Like it or not, Fognini has beaten Felix Auger-Aliassime. Felix’s camp advised that he was having some stomach issues, but it just felt like FAA was not primed for a deep run here at RG. It’s almost useful for him to be out quickly here, as he’s one of the few guys with a shot at Wimbledon and a few extra weeks of grass prep is invaluable as short as that season is. Fabio’s next opponent is Jason Kubler, a player who will be pretty happy with his chances at a third round. Fognini is in good form, but he’s always a guy that can lose to his emotions. Kubler is the exact sort of opponent that Fognini can have trouble with. A very bland approach to the game, and predictable yet efficient patterns. I would expect Fognini to win the early goings of this, and it’s the second half of the match where Kubler can perhaps make some inroads. Overall, I don’t see a huge difference in their current levels, but Fognini’s ceiling is higher. It’ll really be a case of how frustrating Kubler can be. As this is potentially Fog’s last RG though, he should conceivably be prepared to leave it all out there. Tentatively, Fognini in 4 but I really think this could end up in a 5th.

Ofner vs Korda :

Another match where the unsung challenger has potential to pull an upset. Ofner had some hiccoughs, but the result seemed assured against Cressy. Ofner having a heavy and consistent baseline game just really complements his serve on clay, and Cressy hasn’t been playing. His next opponent also hasn’t been playing, but is one of the few guys on tour who can do that and still win. Seb Korda had a tricky early round, but he looked like the better player throughout. McDonald was a little too impatient to end points, and it’s that hardcourt style that seems to hurt the Americans a little on clay. Against Korda also, you really want to keep him on the court since he hasn’t been playing matches and has had fatigue and injury issues in the past. Easier said than done I suppose.

Korda should win this match, and in the first round I’d have picked Ofner. It just didn’t seem that most of the qualifiers could get across the finish line though, and the addition of a 3/5 format has frozen a lot of hopefuls so far. Ofner is maybe twice as good as McDonald on clay, so I’d be surprised if this ended in straights. He’s been mired at the Challenger level though, and the best Challenger players probably just win 1 set against the likes of Korda. Again, this is a spot that it’s hard to back Korda, because his physical fitness is the only question mark. Korda in 4-5.

Schwartzman vs Borges :

Pretty unreal comeback in round one from Diego. Down two sets, looking like the skid would continue, he found a good level and was able to outlast Zapata Miralles. It’s really the only bright point he’s had in a while, and he has a good spot in the draw here to get another win. Nuno Borges got through a really mentally fatiguing match (for spectators at least) against Isner. Isner hasn’t been playing much, but he can still bounce serves right over your head. Borges beat Diego once this year, at a Challenger even in Phoenix. It was hardcourt, but he’ll be reasonably hopeful. I don’t think Borges is better than Zapata Miralles really, but he might be a bit more explosive on offense. He has some decent pop on his serve (must have pop!) and a pretty quick forehand. I don’t think there’s a way either of them win quickly though. Diego in semi-decent form is one of the toughest outs on clay. This would be Borges’ best win on clay and on a huge stage. The non-Diego side is that Borges has just had exceptional practice returning serves. Playing a server tends to get you sharp and since Diego is lacking in confidence and hasn’t played many matches in a row recently, this is a great chance to get an early lead on him. Not entirely sure what happens here. Diego is the reliable outcome, but Borges has the real momentum here. Borges in 5.

Carballes Baena vs Tsitsipas :

Jiri Vesely is so good at showing up for majors. Playing one of the favorites for the event, and coming in on a losing streak, he managed to compete evenly for a large chunk of this. Probably half the draw loses to him there, but Stefanos is really reliable for leveling up as a match goes on. Whatever his conditioning program is, it’s solid. It’ll need to be here, as RCB showed up in really good form. Emilio Nava kept pushing, but Carballes-Baena never gave him a point off. This is a match where Tsitsipas will have to work really hard, but he should know he’s getting there in the end. RCB’s serving isn’t strong enough, so the cumulative pressure for him to not make unforced errors is going to be palpable. He is ultra-consistent, so it’ll be a good look at Tsitsipas’s offense. With Borges/Schwartzman waiting, Stef can also put a bit extra in here since it’s likely a harder match than his next round. Overall, I think Tsitsipas’s serving carries him through here. Tsitsipas in 4.

Djokovic vs Fucsovics :

A lot people liked what they saw from Novak in round one. I didn’t really see anything. He was content to play at Kovacevic’s speed, and he wasn’t really threatened. When he wanted to, he was able to generate winners, and his elbow looked okay. I don’t mean I saw nothing in a dismissive way, I just don’t think he was in any danger. The third set was close, but it wouldn’t have made a difference. Here in round two we will get a real look at Novak’s ability. Marton Fucsovics got past Challenger standout Huge Grenier in straight sets. Fucsovics has all the tools but really plays a strange style. From even terms, he’s pretty conservative, and once he’s down a bit he seems to generate highlight reel shots. I think he’s better off going with plan B as plan A, but his general game keeps him in the top 100 so I can see the appeal. Fucsovics is in tremendous shape, and will make Djokovic play a lot of tennis to get through here. Problems for him include : his backhand doesn’t score, and his serve doesn’t score. Those two issues mean Djokovic is pretty assured of a third round here, but at least we’ll see him tested. Djokovic in 3-4.

Van Assche vs Davidovich Fokina :

Luca Van Assche is no longer in any sort of a slump. The first handful of games against Cecchinato were really high level, and it seemed like the match would take 4-5 hours at that rate. Van Assche won those games though, and Cecchinato started forcing the issue on offense. He was really trying to knock LVA over and the unforced errors flew from there. Van Assche has a really solid backhand and for a little guy he generates some significant power. I see the total for the next match set at 36 which is pretty low I think. Cecchinato folded but Van Assche was very solid and I think he’ll win a set against ADF.

ADF had a really confusing test against Arthur Fils. The French titlist (Lyon) seemed flat at times, and at others he was his usual dynamic self. While they traded momentum and several games at a time, ADF did seem to be the more consistent player. His offensive creativity kept Fils running, and even though he had the home crowd and momentum Fils seemed a bit at a loss for what his approach really should be. To me, the way to beat ADF is to avoid opening up the angles. He takes the ball up the line so well off both wings and he can send it cross-court in a similar swing production. Luca does hit the ball relatively flat with his backhand, and I think it’ll put the onus on ADF to create shots. Honestly, what am I even talking about. ADF CANNOT BE DEFEATED. The guy is just really good, and for one of the less heralded names on tour, he has played a ton of high-profile matches and competed hard in all of them. His injury issues seem to have subsided as well which could mean that he’s getting more used to the tour.

I expect these two to trade offense pretty evenly in the early going, and for Fokina to pull away as the match goes on. LVA was dominant in round one, but this is a huge step up in competition and he won’t get the gifts Cecchinato gave him. ADF in 4.

Bautista-Agut vs Varillas :

I’ll start with Varillas. Down two sets, it looked like Varillas slump would continue. Shang was crushing the ball, and Varillas was just playing defense. As happens so often on clay though, Varillas was played into form. He stopped missing, and since he hits a bit bigger than Shang at this stage in their careers it suddenly forced Shang to come up with offense. He did admirably, but Varillas really maintainted a good level and Shang made the unforced errors trying to regain control.

RBA has been struggling, but he seemed fine against Wu. Somewhat more importantly, it was a better version of Wu than usual so we can get a sense that Roberto had to play fairly well to get through. This match is one I think Varillas would lose in straights in round one, but after finding his best tennis in the last three sets against Shang, he has a chance. Bautista-Agut hasn’t been at his sharpest on serve this year, and his usual impeccable backhand has been losing range at times. The problem for Varillas is that Shang mostly lost trying to force the issue; RBA is content to hang in rallies as long as it takes. Expecting some sets traded in this one, with RBA being the one slightly more able to create from neutral in rallies. RBA in 4-5.

Griekspoor vs Hurkacz :

A few five set battles see Griekspoor and Hurkacz through to the second round. Griekspoor outlasted Pedro Martinez’s hot streak, and won from 2-0 down. Hurkacz was more competitive throughout against a surging David Goffin, and in the fifth set it was just a lot easier for him to hold serve than it was for Goffin. Hurkacz is the clear pick here, but he has a way of never making it easy when this is the case. Griekspoor is exceptionally solid from the baseline, and he hits with pace and depth so Hurkacz’s movement will be tested often. Griekspoor also has some good serving when he’s fresh, so I’d expect him to win a set or two. In the end, this is the same equation : Hurkacz having a huge serve means it’s really hard to outlast him. Hurkacz in 4.

Khachanov vs Albot :

Guaranteed to be changes in momentum and people lamenting their Khachanov 3-0 tickets in this one. Khachanov was a -5000 favorite in round one, and almost lost to Lestienne. Albot made quick work of the American hopeful Patrick Kypson, and is playing pretty solid. This matchup doesn’t really work for him because Khachanov defends well against everything that he does. Khachanov’s backhand is too good to really come to net against, he moves well enough to deal with Albot’s pace, and he’s tall so Albot’s spot serving is less safe. I don’t think just because Khachanov clutched round one that he’ll suddenly be consistent though. Dropping sets to Lestienne is the same as losing to Albot, and the r/tennis hero is very good at manufacturing breaks of serve. I’m expecting him to win one of the first two sets. Khachanov in 4.

Wawrinka vs Kokkinakis :

This one is unfortunately going to get attention for all the wrong reasons. Nick Kyrgios, whose behavior reminds me a bit of Ricky Bobby’s dad in Talladega Nights, famously chirped at Wawrinka after a match that Thanasi Kokkinakis had perhaps made some love to a girl Wawrinka had been possibly dating. It was a whole big thing, and so this matchup has potential for drama which we don’t want to see, and cannot look away from. Hopefully it just goes smooth, as these are two very talented tennis players in decent form. One of them even has a backhand. Kokkinakis is through after a straight sets victory against Evans, who’s been struggling a lot this season. Wawrinka was rolling against ARV when things went a bit sideways. ARV went into wall-mode and the 4 hours marathon was locked in. Stan did well to close, and i think he’s a slight favorite against Kokkinakis.

Thanasi wins behind his serve and forehand. He’s been faring decently so far this season on clay, with a win against Munar who’d be slightly favored against Wawrinka. The problem here is Kokkinakis’ backhand. He doesn’t have a strong enough technical swing to hit through the court, and that means if Wawrinka can put balls in play he can win this match. Munar is very consistent, but he doesn’t hit hard enough to pressure Kokkinakis. Wawrinka is a different type of threat, and his own serving can be very efficient when he’s fired up. This is probably the last round where Stan has a chance, but I think he’ll have the motivation to make it through, and he’ll have a decent plan B if Kokkinakis gets a lead. Wawrinka in 5.

Sonego vs Humbert :

This should be really good. Sonego was relentless in the first round against Shelton. Anytime he had a full swing on his forehand he was able to generate winners and his use of the dropshot was excellent as usual. Shelton didn’t play poorly at all but he was constantly under pressure. Humbert was a similar level of aggressive against Mannarino, grabbing a straight set victory against the vet. With both in excellent form, and a close contest (Humbert actually had a match point before losing) a few weeks ago in Monte Carlo, this should be very close. As far as opponent though, Sonego was dismissing a much stronger player. I like Humbert’s form and playing at home is a big boost with the rowdy French crowd, but Sonego is a bit more physically strong here. His aggressive style does lead to some errors so this should be at least 4 sets, but I like Sonego to be at the higher level at the finish line. Sonego in 5.

Moutet vs Rublev :

Arthur Cazaux is not quite ready for the tour yet. Moutet came in with middling form, but Cazaux didn’t have many ways to score on him. His backhand doesn’t have enough topspin to get through the court, and his serve is pretty reliable but most of them went back in play. Moutet dictated for most of this match, and only really lost the third set because he tried to play a bit too ornate. This next round should be his last, but I would expect Corentin’s speed and highlight reel offense to frustrate Rublev in some stretches. Rublev played great in round one, changing the expression on Djere’s face from expressionless to expressionless but thinking about the locker room. It’s just a stylistic nightmare for Djere since he wins by hitting heavy shots and not getting out of line. Rublev does the same but his locations are way more dangerous and varied than Laslo’s. Moutet can score on Rublev, but I think he’ll have to do a lot of work to defend his serve. The duece games can wear on his emotional resolve, so I expect a lot of racquet tosses and some random rants that I wish were translated. Rublev in 3-4.

Rune vs Monfils :

Holger Rune was never really in danger against Eubanks, but Chris really played well. His serve was efficient, and his backhand has gotten a lot better this season. There’s a good chance his ranking will improve with grass, hardcourt, and indoor left to play. For now, Rune’s campaign is off to a good start, and he has been given a gift and a curse here after Gael Monfils pulled off a nice upset of Sebastian Baez. Baez has been in a semi-slump, but this was mostly Monfils playing well. It’s hard to score on him without hitting a handful of shots each rally, and Baez just proved to be unable to get the ball past him. It’s huge for Monfils to be winning matches already, and he should be a very good test of Rune’s resolve.

I don’t think Monfils is good enough at this point to beat Rune, but I don’t think he was good enough before to upend the youngster. Rune is technically sound, and he’s motivated. He’s shown the ability to compete in tougher situations, and the crowd being against him is fortuitously something he’s somewhat used to. La Monf has the ability to extend rallies, and his forehand is huge when he pulls the trigger, but he’s able to elevate to the level that Rune has put in the work to be stable at. Should be one of the most entertaining matches of the second round by far, but I expect Rune to navigate this and to be a little more consistent and fit. Rune in 4-5.

Oliveiri vs Vavassori :

Olivieri and Perricard played another classic in round one, with the result mirroring their last match, Oliveiri winning the decider. It sets up an all qualifier matchup with Andrea Vavassori. Vavassori saved multiple match points against Kecmanovic, and managed a come from behind win against Miomir that was one of the best of the day. Kecmanovic played solid throughout, which makes this even more impressive. Vavassori has a great serving game and his play during the rally is aggressive and sharp. Him and Zeppieri were the class of the field in qualifying, and the run will probably continue here. Oliveiri is a real difficult physical test, but he doesn’t really bring the level of offense that Vavassori has. Vavassori is almost a servebot, and his first round win was a good bit better than beating the French hopeful Perricard. As well as Oliveiri is playing, this could take multiple sets, but Vavassori should win. Vavassori in 4.

Cerundolo vs Hanfmann :

These two usually only play in Buenos Aires. They’ve met there the past two years, with Cerundolo winning in 3 sets both times. This time, Hanfmann is in what I consider his best form. He’s serving huge, and he navigated Monteiro which means he’s more than capable of hanging in rallies with Cerundolo. Francisco had a rough time with Munar in the early goings, with the Spaniard winning a set and going up a break in the next one. Overall it appears that Cerundolo’s finals run in Lyon may have left him a tiny bit burnt out. That’s lucky for Hanfmann, as playing 5 sets against Monteiro in the last match of the day can be really tough to turn around from.

I think it’s important to be honest rather than speculate, so there is really no result here that wouldn’t surprise me. Cerundolo may be running on fumes, and Hanfmann could just serve him out with the motivation of finally winning a match against Cerundolo. Cerundolo could win a close one, because Hanfmann’s legs may not be 100% after the Monteiro match. There are a lot of ifs here and both these guys are in great form, but have played a lot of matches. I’m somewhat thinking this is Cerundolo’s to lose, and that he’ll probably finish stronger based on having less time on court and also based on his level rising a bit against Munar (6-1 in the 4th). Cerundolo in 5.

Rinderknech vs Fritz :

Arthur Rinderknech had a pretty simple match against Gasquet, but it turned into a roller coaster. Up 2-1 and 5-0 in the 4th, this seemed completely over. At this point, Richard Gasquet chose violence (which is French for violence) and rattled off 5 games of his own. In the end, he just wanted to startle Arthur a little, and by the tiebreaker Gasquet was done. A very exciting match, but one that Arthur perhaps should have wrapped up a bit earlier. He’ll have his hands full in the next round, as Taylor Fritz is playing really well right now. The serving battles usually come down to whom has the best baseline game, and Taylor is just a lot more stable than Rinderknech at this juncture. Rinderknech has the ability to serve and volley which can yield a little boost to his hold percentage, but it’s going to take a near-perfect performance to beat Fritz, so I’m expecting this to be over in 3-4. Fritz in 3-4.

Paul vs Jarry :

Despite a fair bit of hype, Stricker’s level seems to still have a ceiling. Tommy Paul was able to navigate the crafty left-handed phenom in straight sets, and it sets up a really high quality clash for a second round. TP hasn’t been at his best this clay season, and the pricing has indicated that in most rounds. He’d generally be the pick against Jarry, and leads the h2h 2-1, but his recent mediocrity and Jarry’s epic run makes this very even. The courts in Geneva I think would see Nicolas win 3-0, but here on the slower RG surface this could be close. The best chance Tommy has is to serve well. Jarry has been really aggressive in his returning but in a neutral baseline rally, Paul has a pretty good chance. Expecting a shootout here, as Paul served 68% in his first round and he’ll be fairly familiar with his opponent. If their current levels hold, Jarry in 5.

Giron vs Lehecka :

Medjedovic seemed like a world-beater, but he was all out of sorts against Giron. He had 41 unforced errors for the match, and really struggled to keep the ball in play. Somehow he threw in a 6-1 win in the third set, but he got smoked in the fourth by the same scoreline. It’s a good gift for Giron, who didn’t have to do a lot, but kept his level steady. He’ll have a puncher’s chance against Lehecka, and it would be a surprise I think to most if he beat Lehecka. Jiri and Struff had a marathon match, that ended fittingly in a 5th set. Struff had a much easier time scoring, but his errors cost him this one. Lehecka was able to find his backhand and it’s really hard to win on clay when you’re the less consistent player. This match is a carbon copy of the last one for Jiri. Giron has a huge forehand but he isn’t dangerous on the backhand wing. He can score on his serve, but likely not enough to win the entire match. Lehecka in 4-5.

Tirante vs Zhang :

Upsets for both in the first round, with Tirante putting on a great show against Botic Van De Zandschulp and Zhang getting a quick walkover from Lajovic. Botic was able to really generate offense, but the errors were there as well. Tirante is a pretty big guy and he hits big as well, so in neutral rallies BVDZ was under a lot of pressure and it impacted his usual creative process. Tirante being a qualifier means he’s played 4 matches already with Zhang coming in with 0. It should give Zhang a bit of a boost, and as a powerful baseliner it’s best to be fresh. Tirante has been winning thus far by outlasting opponents and taking their time away. His serve is pretty strong, but Zhang’s is a bit better. Should be a close match, but Zhang has more experience and is in decent form. Zhang in 5.

Zeppieri vs Ruud :

Zeppieri! I didn’t think Bublik would hang on that long. He really was solid in this match, and unfortunately he imploded in his very last service game in the fifth set. That was all Zeppieri needed, and it’s a testament to his training how fresh he looked in the final moments. His serve and forehand combo are really smooth and generate easy power, and it should serve him well against Ruud in the second round, because if you can’t get inside the baseline and attack Ruud’s backhand, you’re simply not beating him. Ruud was back to his normal reliable self, dismissing qualifier Elias Ymer in straight sets. It’s a welcome return to form for him, and this is a winnable match. I really don’t agree with the -1000 pricetag that’s been attached to Casper here. He’s the bigger market, and he should win in the end, but Zeppieri being lefty and his current run are enough to make me think he wins at least a set. Ruud in 4.

Sinner vs Altmaier :

Another match where I disagree with the line. Huesler didn’t even play poorly and Altmaier beat him soundly. He served well, and he’s really moving the ball well. A lot of inside out forehands, but he also has been taking shots back behind his opponent at key times which is so effective on clay. Jannik Sinner was sharp in his first round, which is usually where he donates a set or two FAA style before staging a huge comeback, but Muller doesn’t really have the offense to score on Sinner. Altmaier hits big enough with control, and he also serves fairly well. Sinner is a strong returner, but I think Daniel has the same chance of winning a set as Zeppieri does. The problem I would guess for Altmaier is that since Sinner is pretty proactive about moving to the ball and infusing pace, Altmaier’s backhand may be a bit rushed. Taking time away always hurts a one-hander, so Sinner should have the good in the end. This is still a very dangerous matchup though, and if Sinner rolls through this then he should continue his run for a few more rounds. Sinner in 4.

Ruusuvuori vs Dimitrov :

Ruusuvuori was smoking the ball today, and it makes it even more impressive that Barrere managed to get to a fifth set. Gregoire came into this match playing excellent, so the fact that Ruus was able to freeze his momentum is a pretty good indication that he’ll be competitive here. Where Emil struggled was when he wasn’t given pace. He reflects power really well, and was locating his forehand and backhand really well, but when he had a little time or the ball was low, he didn’t move forward and found the net. He’ll need to iron that out in this next round, since Dimitrov is playing well and is a really tough guy to hit through. He’s faster than Barrere, but perhaps a bit more passive than you’d expect for a top player. Somehow, Ruusuvuori and Dimitrov haven’t met yet on tour, but this looks to be a really exciting match. Had I not watched Ruusuvuori today, I’d expect Dimitrov to win in straights, but he’s hitting the ball too well to lose in any straightforward fashion. I’m almost expecting the upset to come in here, but some of that is based in Dimitrov’s previous track record of having health and focus issues on tour. This should be very close, but I guess Grigor is the guy at this point. Dimitrov in 4-5.

Zverev vs Molcan :

Zverev had a real tough time in round one with Lloyd Harris, but he managed to get it done in straight sets. That sets up a match Zverev is supposed to win, but one I suspect he will have trouble with. Molcan won the lefty-matchup in round one against Gaston, and he’s a very tricky out for Zverev. Zverev has a great serve, and hits a heavy ball, but he has trouble ending rallies from neutral, content to just outlast most opponents. Molcan is pretty speedy and he moves the ball well with time, so I’m a bit worried that between the crowd loving an upset, and Zverev starting slow, this could wind up in a 4th or 5th set. Zverev in (you guessed it) 4-5.

Karatsev vs Tiafoe :

I guess Karatsev is going to win this match. Popyrin played great in round one, but Karatsev never blinked. Literally. I still do not understand how his calves are not CGI. Him in good form on clay is something we might overlook recently, but a while ago that meant he beat Djokovic and won a title. I would be picking Tiafoe here because his serve was pretty much a cannon in round one, and I really like his forehand on clay, but the books have opened this at even odds, and that scares me a bit. I don’t blindly follow their pricing, but when they take a position, it’s wise to take a look at why. I’d say Karatsev’s edge here is that there is a bit more height to his shots, so he can play offensive shots without errors. His forehand is pretty great at trading cross-court, which is one thing that will perhaps neutralize Tiafoe’s approach. His backhand is definitely more stable, and his returning is as well. This gives him a good chance, but despite the book’s position I think this is up in the air. Whoever plays the bigger points better here will win, and i would not be surprised to see a handful of tiebreakers. Karatsev in 5.

Coric vs Cachin :

Thiem gave us all hope, coming back from two sets down, but he just isn’t as sharp as he used to be. Thiem adopted a very deep court position, and it gave Cachin a chance to really control rallies. Thiem at his best was able to outperform his poor positioning, but now he just doesn’t have the same zip on his shots. That’s a knock on his coaches perhaps, but Thiem’s career is already cemented as “enough” so it’s okay if he’s aiming high and okay with losing in the interim. For now, Cachin advances and gets another Thiem era standout in Borna Coric. Borna is through after a slow but steady win against Coria. Federico played solid in the beginning, and threatened to go up two sets to one, but Coric ground his legs down and ended up in control by the end. I expect Coric to do the same here. Cachin is really solid and has great fitness, but Coric has a bigger service delivery and great stamina. Should be close, but Coric is unlikely to go away and Cachin’s backhand is a little bit weaker. Coric in 5.

Etcheverry vs De Minaur :

Etcheverry got a nice withdrawal from Draper, and it sets up a winnable match against a huge name. Alex De Minaur is considered to be one of the top players in tennis. He may be regarded as a gatekeeper at the very top level, but he is capable of competing even against anyone on a given day. Clay is just not his best surface though, and Etcheverry has been slowly increasing his ability this year. He’s serving really well, and the power he’s hitting with right now is enough to give Alex problems. Traditionally, De Minaur has lost to the guys with a lot of power, so this is a spot where the challenger should get off to a good start. If ADM can eke out a lucky tiebreaker, he has a shot, but it feels like from neutral Etcheverry will be able to defend easier than ADM will. Upset alert. Etcheverry in 4.

Nishioka vs Purcell :

Good result for Purcell who’s mostly a doubles player these days. Nishioka was down 2-0 to Wolf, but he used his speed and defending to grind out a very long and very emotional victory. There are a lot of “throw self on floor” and “fist pump knowingly to camp” celebrations out there that feel obligatory or mimed, but Nishioka’s “YES! .... YES!!! .... YES!!!! ....” in between exhausted breaths felt very real. Purcell is a simpler opponent than Wolf, and I’m inclined to believe that Nishi’s run will continue. He has the same option here that he did against Wolf, and Purcell doesn’t exactly have the same power. With the price at just +220 for Purcell I’m expecting some close sets, but Nishioka in 4.

Pella vs Seyboth Whaaaaaaaaaaaat :

Pella finally winning matches on tour again is one thing, but Thiago Seyboth Wild has just cemented himself in people’s minds and hearts for a while. Forget the racquet smashing, Challenger dumping, windy condition berating player who seemed destined to be another wasted talent. Thiago has been putting in the work on the lower levels, and it was clear his plan was Roland Garros. He went to qualifying, and downed a top seed in good form in Dominik Koepfer. He got a top seed, and he balled out anyway. After winning the first, the question was when Medvedev would take over. With set points squandered in the second after a careless miss, and a chance to save set points missed after a too casual volley with an open court, it looked like Seyboth Wild was going to just go away. NOPE. FUCKING NOPE. Thiago dug in and played extremely well here, and more importantly he played consistent. Medvedev overall looked helpless. He kept the ball in play, but he didn’t seem to have a way to score. Thiago’s shotmaking was the hallmark of his promise early on, and having that occasional infusion of power, and those deft dropshots really helped him.

This next match is one Seyboth should definitely win. Pella was solid against Halys, but Quentin struggled to keep the ball in play during baseline rallies late in the match. He was up a break in the fifth and gave it back. Overall, Pella’s task was simply to return serves, and hit to the open court. It’s his first win in a while, so it’s unclear if coming back from a 5 setter is something he can definitely manage. The caveat here is that Pella can hit through the court in a way that Medvedev can’t. He’s also lefty and if there’s a worse wing for TSW, it’s his backhand. Should be a good spot for Thiago to keep going, but he’ll need to bring the same level of focus and it’s common on tour for players to be a bit flat after a huge win. Seyboth Wild in 4.